You can draft elite centers later than the very early picks, but that's mostly luck (despite scouting departments claims otherwise)
Not sure its luck. They could target players with the correct mentality and IQ, work ethic on and off the ice, and a skill set that can translate to the pro game.
An issue a lot of teams have is gushing over raw skills. If the mental aspect isn't there, all the skill in the world won't matter. Look at the Oilers.
Rangers have been successful identifying players with the mental aspect. Sometimes players can overcome definciencies in their skill with hard work.
"Boom or bust" picks are just that. And more often than not, they bust.
"Safe" picks have a higher probability of becoming something.
Is it best to always try to get NHL players out of the draft? Or to swing for the fences?
To me Kreider, Miller, and Skjei were never boom or bust. "Raw raw raw" some said about Kreider, and i always disagreed. He always had a high IQ and the mental makeup to put the work in, listen to his coaches, and work toward being the player he can be. Raw is Rob Schremp. Natural talent out the ass. But absolutely no work ethic, no IQ.
IQ includes knowing what you are, listening to coaches, accepting roles, applying what is being taught, working hard to improve.
Duke isn't raw in that sense, either.
To me, there is a difference between an unfinished, developing player, and a raw player with no capacity to learn and grow as an individual.
Some players "get it" others don't. Some don't and wake up (Kristo) and some don't (Ethan Werek).
All i am trying to say is, they can identify and target players that will do what ever it takes to make it and stick, if they do their homework not just watching them play, but researching their family life and off ice social life and pin point psychological indications if they will go further as a player or red flags if they will hit a wall.
Talent evaluati9n, drafting, and scouting is more than just looking at good hands and shooting. So to speak.
