Sens Shot Predicting the Opening Day Lineup

[Sweatred]

TA/GA stats aren't really meaningful stats. For one thing, individual rinks have wildly different interpretations as to when to attribute them so you get some really bizzare home away splits. Second, they often don't tell you what you expect. Giveaway leaders are guys that pass the puck a lot. Does that mean they are bad defensive players? Marchand and Kopitar were both top 30 in giveaways

I put a bit more stock in takeaways, particularly on the road to eliminate rink bias, both Stepan and White performed pretty similar in that regard.

As for faceoffs, i mention it before but there are flaws with using raw FO% as it doesn't account for who you are face off against. Using an ELO model does that, and white does about average in the elo model, but as a young player you can expect white to improve at the dot as it is one skill that experience seems to correlate with.

I don’t pay attention to formal GA/TA either but people here are always screaming for some statistical proof beyond the eye test.

I’ve watched games where players turn the puck over through soft possession, failed execution etc all over the ice and they end up with zero give aways....

IMO White’s been a turn over machine through poor execution, poor passing, poor puck protection, and soft possession skills. His GA/TA don’t change that. He also is soft on faceoffs.

Hopefully the stronger version we seen in Jan improves that part of his game.

 

[Sweatred]

White is a weak player to play against in any zone. He is not protecting a puck particularity well against the boards. Not covering opposing players or jamming lanes very well. Weak on cycling the puck, or putting pressure in the offensive zone. Not sacrificing himself going to a slot. Not physical enough, or physical at all. Can not pin a player against a board well. Always losing the battles for the puck. Easily separated from the puck. Has average speed and looks lost against better NHL players, especially stars in the league. He is just a cause to losing games against better clubs. There is no remedy to his play. He is what he is.

^somebody^ gets hockey beyond G/A/PTS and Things they Google.

I hope he shows up stronger and finds himself a role be it 2-3-4C or 3-4RW.

 

[Dan Patrick]

White is a weak player to play against in any zone. He is not protecting a puck particularity well against the boards. Not covering opposing players or jamming lanes very well. Weak on cycling the puck, or putting pressure in the offensive zone. Not sacrificing himself going to a slot. Not physical enough, or physical at all. Can not pin a player against a board well. Always losing the battles for the puck. Easily separated from the puck. Has average speed and looks lost against better NHL players, especially stars in the league. He is just a cause to losing games against better clubs. There is no remedy to his play. He is what he is.

He is also only 23 years old and has only two real seasons with the team. I do think it's fair to criticize bad play, and certainly white was bad for long stretches last year, but the entire team was terrible. I think its important to reserve judgment and completely writing him off as a player until we see him play with an improved squad and another year with a new coach. We are too quick to forget that he had a good rookie campaign and only remember the regression from last year.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

I’m looking forward to watching Norris this season. I haven’t seen much of him but his stat line from last year is impressive and he’s getting quite a bit of hype.

What do people project him to become?

 

[Sweatred]

I’m looking forward to watching Norris this season. I haven’t seen much of him but his stat line from last year is impressive and he’s getting quite a bit of hype.

What do people project him to become?

I really hope we see Norris with someone like Brady or other good offensive forwards.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

AHL season is expected to start February 5th. Ottawa starts its season January 15th. The Sens play 11 games prior to the AHL season starting. A 2 game series vs Toronto, then a 3 game series vs Winnipeg, then a 3 game series vs Vancouver, then a 2 game series vs Edmonton, then the first of a 2 game series vs Montreal.

Players need to go through waivers to be put on the taxi squad and teams might be reluctant to claim players off of waivers because they will have to go through a minimum of 1 week quarantine before joining the team and if they put that player on their taxi squad they will pass through waivers and the original team has the first right to reclaim them. Waiver eligibility will very likely not help bubble players to make this team or the taxi squad.

The shortened season and the mini series format will lead to the Sens keeping the players that are most likely to help them win games. DJ Smith has stated that the most competitive players will make the team and that he intends to use the taxi squad to rotate players in and out of the lineup.

This is not a regular training camp and who makes the team will be different than a normal training camp. This is more like the playoffs. Players are not guaranteed to stay in the lineup and players on the taxi squad are not guaranteed to stay there either.

With the AHL season starting later, development will likely not be a factor on who makes the taxi squad. Normally top prospects will get sent down because they want them to play lots of minutes in the AHL to maximize their development. With the delay in the AHL season there is no advantage in sending them down.

There could be a number of surprises of who makes the roster and who makes the taxi squad of the bubble players.

 

[Karl Eriksson]

Opening day line-up:

Tkachuk - White - Dadonov
Stuetzle - Stepan- Batherson
Galchenyuk - Tierney - C.Brown
Paul - Pacquette - Watson

Chabot - Gudbranson
Brannstrom - Zaitsev
Wolanin - Brown

Murray
Hogberg

Extras: Reilly, Coburn, Anisimov
Uber Squad: Balcers, Chlapik, Hailey, Zub, Jaros, Daccord. (all making AHL salary)
Key AHL call-ups: Brown, Norris, Formenton, Abramov

Unless Dorion makes some moves, or someone else is waived/LTIRed/similar, there is no space for Logan Brown, Norris, or Formenton to begin the season after the recent acquisitions. Before the trades, I had Brown and Norris competing for Anisimov's position.

My fav lineup so far. Maybe Logan brown at 4C but then again, what’s the point.

 

[Sweatred]

My fav lineup so far. Maybe Logan brown at 4C but then again, what’s the point.

Gal on DJ’s defensively responsible, hard working checking line ?

 

[Sweatred]

I think its important to reserve judgment .

His play (puck skills, passing, physical engagement, protection etc) wasn’t any better in his rookie year. He certainly benefited from a stronger team but we need guys who makes teams good, not players who need other good players to be decent, especially at +$5 million avg starting in 2021.

We can judge him at all times. If he plays good or bad this year he can be judged according.

We do the same for everyone else. No ones screaming that people constantly say 21 year old Brown doesn’t work hard enough.

 

[Dan Patrick]

His play (puck skills, passing, physical engagement, protection etc) wasn’t any better in his rookie year. He certainly benefited from a stronger team but we need guys who makes teams good, not players who need other good players to be decent, especially at +$5 million avg starting in 2021.

We can judge him at all times. If he plays good or bad this year he can be judged according.

We do the same for everyone else. No ones screaming that people constantly say 21 year old Brown doesn’t work hard enough.

I never said not to judge him at all times, I even explicitly agreed he should be criticized for his bad play last year. What I think is ridiculous to do is make absolute statements at this time like "he is what he is". He has played one bad season and finished off the season on a point streak. I think that completely writing off a young player after one good season and one bad season is silly.

 

[Sweatred]

I never said not to judge him at all times, I even explicitly agreed he should be criticized for his bad play last year. What I think is ridiculous to do is make absolute statements at this time like "he is what he is". He has played one bad season and finished off the season on a point streak. I think that completely writing off a young player after one good season and one bad season is silly.

Sure... hopefully he still is improving as he turns 24 soon . His AHL season was pedestrian and his rookie season had some good signs. I’m not trying to turn this into a White bashing thread. I am hopefully he plays well this year. However, we could also say he has only had a slight glimmer of decent play over 3 seasons (his pt totals in his rookie year).

If he plays well and is the best option for 1-2C I’m fine if he plays there ... but if Norris and or Brown appear better and they are held back I’ll be pissed (again).

 

[Karl Eriksson]

I hope the market is decent at the deadline. We have a lot of guys that can return middle picks.

 

[Karl Eriksson]

Gal on DJ’s defensively responsible, hard working checking line ?

yes

 

[Peptic Balcers]

GARRIOCH: An Ottawa Senators' training camp preview after a long off-season with many changes | Ottawa Sun

Looking at who is listed on the roster (which is mostly full) and who is battling... its worrying

 

[Boud]

GARRIOCH: An Ottawa Senators' training camp preview after a long off-season with many changes | Ottawa Sun

Looking at who is listed on the roster (which is mostly full) and who is battling... its worrying

I think Batherson is pretty much a given and same for Wolanin. Unless Abramov really outplays Batherson in camp which I guess could technically be a possibility..

I could see Norris, Formenton and Brannstrom starting in Belleville.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

GARRIOCH: An Ottawa Senators' training camp preview after a long off-season with many changes | Ottawa Sun

Looking at who is listed on the roster (which is mostly full) and who is battling... its worrying

A little concerned about our defence. Chabot is the only guy there I trust playing 20 minutes a night. A breakout year from Brannstrom would be ideal.

 

[Peptic Balcers]

A little concerned about our defence. Chabot is the only guy there I trust playing 20 minutes a night. A breakout year from Brannstrom would be ideal.

I like wolanin too, but he's battling for a spot apparently?

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

I like wolanin too, but he's battling for a spot apparently?

Why wouldn’t he be? He hasn’t played since September 2019 and has a total of 43 games played in the league

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

I like wolanin too, but he's battling for a spot apparently?

The article has everyone not on a one-way contract battling for the spot.

 

[Peptic Balcers]

Why wouldn’t he be? He hasn’t played since September 2019 and has a total of 43 games played in the league

I don’t disagree. but the way it’s worded, it looks like Reilly and Coburn are locks and wolanin and brannstrom are battling for 4th LD. When really it should be all 4 of them are battling for the 2nd and 3rd LD spots

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

I don’t disagree. but the way it’s worded, it looks like Reilly and Coburn are locks and wolanin and brannstrom are battling for 4th LD. When really it should be all 4 of them are battling for the 2nd and 3rd LD spots

Agree. I’m thinking he means for spots in the roster and taxi squad though. I don’t think Reilly will play much at all. Just a guess though

 

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

I don’t disagree. but the way it’s worded, it looks like Reilly and Coburn are locks and wolanin and brannstrom are battling for 4th LD. When really it should be all 4 of them are battling for the 2nd and 3rd LD spots

Any article written by Bruce Garrioch should not have "the way it's worded" as a very relevant factor.

I'm sure he banged it out in about 15 minutes and precise wording was not his highest concern.

 

[Micklebot]

I've lost track of all the new bodies we've added... This is getting tough. We can make half a roster with just new additions

Stuetzle-Stepan-Dadonov
Galchenyuk-Paquette-Watson
X-x-x
X-x-x

X-Gudbranson
X-X
Coburn-Brown

Murray

 

[Sweatred]

yes

Doesn’t feel like a DJ move -

 

[Karl Eriksson]

I've lost track of all the new bodies we've added... This is getting tough. We can make half a roster with just new additions

Stuetzle-Stepan-Dadonov
Galchenyuk-Paquette-Watson
X-x-x
X-x-x

X-Gudbranson
X-X
Coburn-Brown

Murray

You wouldn’t have White as your 1 or 2C?