Prashanth Iyer - Rebuilding/Off-season Approach

[Hammettf2b]

What moves exactly finish the rebuild?

Karlsson? I am not sure who you mean exactly..

Karlsson is assumed already on the team in this scenario. Other moves might be through UFA's and or trades.

 

[Hockeyfannnn91]

Bah he doesn’t say anything none of us don’t already know, we can’t buy out abdelkader and shouldn’t bring back witkowski,vanek and kronwall(He won’t)Rasmussen after playing 4th line all season and getting no icetime will play in Grand Rapids,hirose got almost a pt a game will stay up

We all know Chelios,mcilrath,lashoff etc... have no future, we shouldn’t be giving offer sheets to anyone considering we’d still be fighting for playoffs and it would be a dumb move

Anyways nothing mind blowing

 

[RabidBadger]

What does this mean exactly?

It means a) the prospect of signing EK has caused posters on this board to turn on each other like wild dogs and, b) if any of us met in person it would be a subject best avoided due to point "a".

 

[RabidBadger]

I neither agree nor disagree with any of you.

I accept your ambivalence/apathy. I hope the rebuild is satisfying for you.

 

[jkutswings]

To play devils advocate here, can't you say that about any big UFA signing? They are almost never expected to be great for their duration of the contract.

True, but usually it's just a guy getting older. I'm more concerned about past and current injuries than how his game would otherwise age.

 

[Ingvar]

The only chance we have to sign Karlsson is because there are concerns about his injury. You don’t pass an opportunity to sign the best defenseman in the league just because his contract may become bad - you sign him and try to make the most out of him and Larkin entering his prime.

 

[Larkin2AA]

individual stat? what the hell are you even talking about? maybe read the part of your post I originally bolded?

saying that Karlsson's production the past 2 seasons isn't impressive just looks dumb when he literally lead all Defensemen in points per game last year and is 2nd over the past 2 years behind only Burns

I didn't see that you bolded a specific part of my original post, my bad. I just can't find myself paying possibly $10-12 million for a guy I can be a liability defensively and only put up 3 goals as an offensive defenseman. Sure, I can be reaching a little bit because goals aren't the only offensive statistic that are important (especially for defense), but when you are playing on a team with Burns and Vlasic on defense things can tend to be easier for him. We don't have a Burns or Vlasic, and Karlsson to them is a luxury they can afford. The Wings are still rebuilding and it wouldn't be smart to spend 10-12 million for a guy that is going to be 30 in a year to play on our team that wont be competitive for another 2.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

The only chance we have to sign Karlsson is because there are concerns about his injury. You don’t pass an opportunity to sign the best defenseman in the league just because his contract may become bad - you sign him and try to make the most out of him and Larkin entering his prime.

And what exactly does making "the most" look like?

We need so much more than just EK.

It feels like many think that if we sign EK the other 5 or 6 things that need to happen for us to be a playoff team and contender will just all automatically happen as well.

 

[Ricelund]

5,000 words to say buying out Abdelkader doesn't make sense and the Wings likely won't sign any big free agents.

 

[obey86]

5,000 words to say buying out Abdelkader doesn't make sense and the Wings likely won't sign any big free agents.

He wasn't saying what will happen, he's saying what he would do.

 

[pz29]

He wasn't saying what will happen, he's saying what he would do.

Yeah, I thought also most of it was just speculation, but that is the nature of most sports writing.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

The only chance we have to sign Karlsson is because there are concerns about his injury. You don’t pass an opportunity to sign the best defenseman in the league just because his contract may become bad - you sign him and try to make the most out of him and Larkin entering his prime.

We're not talking about signing the best defenseman in the league, we're talking about signing Karlsson.

I just don't know that it's worth making the most of him for a massive contract when his best years will most likely be sooner rather than later, so he'll help the Wings get to middle of the standings purgatory but will be declining by the time they're competing for a Cup.

 

[obey86]

We're not talking about signing the best defenseman in the league, we're talking about signing Karlsson.

I just don't know that it's worth making the most of him for a massive contract when his best years will most likely be sooner rather than later, so he'll help the Wings get to middle of the standings purgatory but will be declining by the time they're competing for a Cup.

This is certainly possible, maybe even probable, but the best players in the league typically last later in age than less talented players do because they have a lot more room to decline while still being effective. I mean, the top two defensive scoring leaders this season are age 34 and 35. Even the #5 defensive scoring leader is 32 years old. Hell, Kronwall, even with his bad knees on a mediocre team was still a 44 point defensemen at age 34.....and he was never close to as talented/good as Karlsson was meaning he didn't have as far to decline while remaining productive.

So even if he's only top 3 now, and in 3 years will be top 10-15 after he declined. That's still a massive piece that can help the Wings when (if) they become good again in a few seasons.

 

[jkutswings]

This is certainly possible, maybe even probable, but the best players in the league typically last later in age than less talented players do because they have a lot more room to decline while still being effective.

When relatively healthy. Which is the question mark here.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

This is certainly possible, maybe even probable, but the best players in the league typically last later in age than less talented players do because they have a lot more room to decline while still being effective. I mean, the top two defensive scoring leaders this season are age 34 and 35. Even the #5 defensive scoring leader is 32 years old. Hell, Kronwall, even with his bad knees on a mediocre team was still a 40 point defensemen at age 34.....and he was never close to as talented/good as Karlsson was meaning he didn't have as far to decline while remaining productive.

So even if he's only top 3 now, and in 3 years will be top 10-15 after he declined. That's still a massive piece that can help the Wings when (if) they become good again in a few seasons.

True. I just think Karlsson's game is so heavily reliant on his skating. And his defense in particular suffers. He's had his achilles nearly severed, his ankle surgically rebuilt, and now a groin injury. Those are all worrisome so I can't say if he'd still be top 10-15 after 3 years. He could be a $12 million Mike Green at that point.

I fully admit that it's also possible he rehabs well this offseason, settles into a team comfortably and puts his past turmoil behind him and rebounds to be a great player. Mainly I'm just saying given his injuries and likely contract, it's not as automatic of decision as some people are making it sound.

 

[obey86]

When relatively healthy. Which is the question mark here.

Sure, of course. And i'm sure a physical would be completed by team doctors before any agreement is finalized.

 

[obey86]

True. I just think Karlsson's game is so heavily reliant on his skating. And his defense in particular suffers. He's had his achilles nearly severed, his ankle surgically rebuilt, and now a groin injury. Those are all worrisome so I can't say if he'd still be top 10-15 after 3 years. He could be a $12 million Mike Green at that point.

I fully admit that it's also possible he rehabs well this offseason, settles into a team comfortably and puts his past turmoil behind him and rebounds to be a great player. Mainly I'm just saying given his injuries and likely contract, it's not as automatic of decision as some people are making it sound.

No doubt, definitely not automatic.

 

[Hammettf2b]

I just think it would be foolish if Karlsson wanted to sign here and we said, "ya, thanks but no thanks".

 

[Henkka]

True. I just think Karlsson's game is so heavily reliant on his skating. And his defense in particular suffers. He's had his achilles nearly severed, his ankle surgically rebuilt, and now a groin injury. Those are all worrisome so I can't say if he'd still be top 10-15 after 3 years. He could be a $12 million Mike Green at that point.

I fully admit that it's also possible he rehabs well this offseason, settles into a team comfortably and puts his past turmoil behind him and rebounds to be a great player. Mainly I'm just saying given his injuries and likely contract, it's not as automatic of decision as some people are making it sound.

I would still take him. If he is injury machine, we suck again and tank high picks. If he goes back to his old form, our rebuild is over.

Just get him here.

 

[Henkka]

Don't mind me, I just wanted to see what the differences looked like (DRW - average).

This is how Signing Karlsson and Nyquist would change it.

Mantha(0.84)	Larkin(1.08)	Nyquist(0.86)
-0.02	+0.09	-0.10
Bertuzzi(0.59)	Athanasiou(0.61)	Svechnikov(0.60)
-0.09	-0.21	-0.08
Hirose(0.33)	Nielsen(0.33)	Vanek(0.36)
-0.14	-0.18	-0.16
Abdelkader(0.17)	Glendening(0.20)	Helm(0.25)
-0.13	-0.10	-0.06

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1st line vs. avg contender, -0.03
2nd line vs. avg contender, -0.38
3rd line vs. avg contender, -0.48
4th line vs. avg contender, -0.39
Offence total: -1.28

1st D-pair vs. avg contender, +0.02
2nd D-pair vs, avg contender, -0.27
3rd D-pair vs. avg contender, +0.14
Defence Total, -0.11

Dekeyser(0.36)	Karlsson(0.92)
-0.27	+0.29
Cholowski(0.24)	Green(0.46)
-0.19	-0.08
Kronwall(0.21)	Hronek(0.42)
-0.06	+0.20

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

After signing Karlsson, our defence would almost be at avg Contender level. Evgeny Svechnikov is a small sample size, but he is there just as an example, if another young player develops to Athanasiou level. It could be Zadina too.

Also our forward core would be on Contender average, if we find better than Athanasiou level center to 2nd line and push Athanasiou to 3rd line and Nielsen to 4th line. then that bottom9 becomes as almost as good as contenders. Expected growth from kids will catch rest of the gap.

If we ever get Karlsson, 2nd line center would become our biggest need. 2019 draft could solve the problem, or Joe Veleno.

 

[Wingsfan 4 life]

WIIM? Yea, no thanks.

I want actual insight on what this team may or may not actually do. Not another armchair GM saying what they would or wouldn't do.

 

[Shaman464]

This is how Signing Karlsson and Nyquist would change it.

Mantha(0.84)	Larkin(1.08)	Nyquist(0.86)
-0.02	+0.09	-0.10
Bertuzzi(0.59)	Athanasiou(0.61)	Svechnikov(0.60)
-0.09	-0.21	-0.08
Hirose(0.33)	Nielsen(0.33)	Vanek(0.36)
-0.14	-0.18	-0.16
Abdelkader(0.17)	Glendening(0.20)	Helm(0.25)
-0.13	-0.10	-0.06

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

1st line vs. avg contender, -0.03
2nd line vs. avg contender, -0.38
3rd line vs. avg contender, -0.48
4th line vs. avg contender, -0.39
Offence total: -1.28

1st D-pair vs. avg contender, +0.02
2nd D-pair vs, avg contender, -0.27
3rd D-pair vs. avg contender, +0.14
Defence Total, -0.11

Dekeyser(0.36)	Karlsson(0.92)
-0.27	+0.29
Cholowski(0.24)	Green(0.46)
-0.19	-0.08
Kronwall(0.21)	Hronek(0.42)
-0.06	+0.20

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

After signing Karlsson, our defence would almost be at avg Contender level. Evgeny Svechnikov is a small sample size, but he is there just as an example, if another young player develops to Athanasiou level. It could be Zadina too.

Also our forward core would be on Contender average, if we find better than Athanasiou level center to 2nd line and push Athanasiou to 3rd line and Nielsen to 4th line. then that bottom9 becomes as almost as good as contenders. Expected growth from kids will catch rest of the gap.

If we ever get Karlsson, 2nd line center would become our biggest need. 2019 draft could solve the problem, or Joe Veleno.

That's great if hockey were played on paper. But, Karlsson's +0.20 doesn't negate how horrible the rest of the defense is, nor does it take into account how Karlsson's +0.29 is accounted for not by his defensive acumen, but his ability to create points. That top pairing would still be a train wreck defensively, and would likely give up as many goals as it created.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

Agree with his plan. Wings are missing sooooo many pieces that it makes no sense to try and accelerate the rebuild.

 

[Run the Jewels]

WIIM? Yea, no thanks.

I want actual insight on what this team may or may not actually do. Not another armchair GM saying what they would or wouldn't do.

Well then Helene St James is your girl.

I thought it was a decent article with a solid strategy and well worth the read. Thanks for sharing @Frk It .

I agree that there is no way Kronner, Vanek or Witkowski should be brought back. Let Kronner take a role off the ice where he belongs. I have to say I am definitely leery about signing Karlsson, His injuries are serious and he's not the missing piece that would make us instant contenders. So I've changed my tune from last year when I said I wanted to sign him. His P/60 at 5v5 are not strong enough. Karlsson, Duncan Keith and Mike Green are all around the same point production at even strength. So you are paying him a premium to be a major contributor 5 v 4 but you have to shelter him like most of our defensemen at even strength. I'm not crazy about paying a premium for that.

I'd prefer to go the trade route or target other UFAs in upcoming draft classes like Jacob Trouba or Justin Faulk. They don't have the high end offensive production you would get from EK but in the case of Trouba he plays some of the toughest competition which is something we definitely need from our defense. Trouba's 5v4 P/60 is also very respectable.

I differ from Iyer in that I would probably give our young d-man prospects some more time in Detroit. If they get crushed they can get sent back down and you can always find a journeyman off the waiver wire or made a trade to get the equivalent of Cory Cross. Everyone thought we needed vets like Vanek and Neilsen to carry the load on offense in Detroit but Larkin, Atahansiou, and to a lesser extent Bert and then Mantha did just fine. So I'd continue on with the youth movement and see what you have in Cholowski and Hronek.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

I would still take him. If he is injury machine, we suck again and tank high picks. If he goes back to his old form, our rebuild is over.

Just get him here.

You think this team is a Karlsson away from competing for the Cup?