Prashanth Iyer - Rebuilding/Off-season Approach

[Frk It]

Thought this was a nice article worth sharing (he did a nice job with the last one in 2017).

Rebuilding the Red Wings - My Approach To The 2019 Offseason

Click to read more...

 

[SirloinUB]

I like Prashanth Iyer. It's great to see him writing about the wings again.

 

[avssuc]

Neilsen rates as a 4th line center?

Abdelkader rates out as half of a 4th line winger?

 

[obey86]

It's interesting to see the game scores for each player in the Red Wings lineup compared to the average stanley cup contender.

 

[obey86]

delete

 

[raymond23]

Love his insights. Very smart and thought out.

Interesting take on the draft. I am all aboard the Byram train but there's no way he drops. Not a fan of trading back either unless we have a guy on our list that we know will still be there.

I agree with him on UFAs for the most part. Wouldn't be opposed to Gardiner if the price and term is right.

Disagree with him on a few things in terms of roster management.

• I'd resign Kronner and waive one of Ericsson/Daley.
• I'm okay with Vanek coming back (or some vet winger) to pair with Zadina.
• I think Bowey is consistently in the lineup 3rd pair RD.

If we are smart and a bit lucky, in a year or so we might be ready to make a big splash. I think he is right that patience is very important right now... this roster is not quite ready for the next step but is trending there.

 

[Henkka]

Nice work. Won't agree with all, but I would probably buyout Daley, try to sign some UFA (Karlsson or Gardiner), and if no one comes, then extend Kronner. Better have Kronner than Daley mentoring kids, imo.

DeKeyser - UFA(Karlsson/Gardiner) <----Kronwall if no one comes from outside
Ericsson - Green
Cholowski/Hronek/Bowey

No room for Daley.

If nothing happens with 2019 UFA class, then 2020 is another scenario.
2020 summer would look so different, when Ericsson, Green, Daley, Kronwall are all gone nonetheless.

McIsaac pushing in, Lindström joining.

Even without UFAs, it could be:

DeKeyser - Hronek
Cholowski - Lindström
McIsaac - Bowey

Suddenly it's a kid defence, or we could go to Trouba hunt.

 

[Larkin2AA]

Great read, thanks for sharing!

I strongly agree with two of his points:

1. I don't think we should go after any UFA/RFA's this summer. There is some great talent available, but at this point in our rebuild I don't believe it will help set us up for a SC contender. We could end up being an average playoff team that may get lucky and get to the 2nd round one year, but contending... no. Shoot for the 2020 offseason for your UFA/RFA talents.
2. Depending on 1 (and some other factors), our 2020 offseason could be huge.
   1. I want to really get as many of our prospects playing for the Griffins as possible to get them ready to make that jump at some point during the 2020 season. Those players include: Veleno, McIssac, Rasmussen, Svechnikov, and Zadina. Obviously Zadina and Rasmussen should be called up to be full time at some point, but getting that experience for the other players will be huge for their jump to the NHL for 2020. Lindstrom could be another player who can start the 2020 season in the AHL and then move up when needed.
   2. The 2020 season will have a lot of bad contracts gone which gives the Wings a ton of flexibility in FA. The UFA list is strong and can provide the Wings with contending for the playoffs in 20-21.
   3. Getting another top 10 pick is important for solidifying the tanking/rebuild we've done for the past few years. Lafreniere is the obvious target, but getting any sort of top 10 talent will be huge for us.

Obviously we will need some luck from a developmental and signing standpoint, but if we continue to play things smart, I see us being able 3rd round ceiling and 1st round floor for this team in 2021.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Neilsen rates as a 4th line center?

Abdelkader rates out as half of a 4th line winger?

Thinking that's too high for Abby?

 

[obey86]

Great read, thanks for sharing!

I strongly agree with two of his points:

1. I don't think we should go after any UFA/RFA's this summer. There is some great talent available, but at this point in our rebuild I don't believe it will help set us up for a SC contender. We could end up being an average playoff team that may get lucky and get to the 2nd round one year, but contending... no. Shoot for the 2020 offseason for your UFA/RFA talents.
2. Depending on 1 (and some other factors), our 2020 offseason could be huge.
   1. I want to really get as many of our prospects playing for the Griffins as possible to get them ready to make that jump at some point during the 2020 season. Those players include: Veleno, McIssac, Rasmussen, Svechnikov, and Zadina. Obviously Zadina and Rasmussen should be called up to be full time at some point, but getting that experience for the other players will be huge for their jump to the NHL for 2020. Lindstrom could be another player who can start the 2020 season in the AHL and then move up when needed.
   2. The 2020 season will have a lot of bad contracts gone which gives the Wings a ton of flexibility in FA. The UFA list is strong and can provide the Wings with contending for the playoffs in 20-21.
   3. Getting another top 10 pick is important for solidifying the tanking/rebuild we've done for the past few years. Lafreniere is the obvious target, but getting any sort of top 10 talent will be huge for us.

Obviously we will need some luck from a developmental and signing standpoint, but if we continue to play things smart, I see us being able 3rd round ceiling and 1st round floor for this team in 2021.

quality post

 

[Henkka]

1. I don't think we should go after any UFA/RFA's this summer. There is some great talent available, but at this point in our rebuild I don't believe it will help set us up for a SC contender. We could end up being an average playoff team that may get lucky and get to the 2nd round one year, but contending... no. Shoot for the 2020 offseason for your UFA/RFA talents.

If you have a chance to sign a great player like KArlsson, you'll do it no matter what. It's better thing than any change in draft pick height.

Also playoff experience for this young generation will be critical at this point of their development. I'll buy that Holland talk 100%. Multiple losing seasons builds... a loser.

Playoff-styled matchup hockey against same opponent is a totally different sport. If you miss that for years, it takes years to learn it again. Faster you get the first experience, faster you have chance for Cup and the core age won't by-pass you when you are learning that playoff-thing too late.

 

[TheOtherOne]

Mantha	Larkin	Bertuzzi
-0.02	+0.09	-0.37
Vanek	Nielsen	Athanasiou
-0.30	-0.49	-0.07
Hirose	Glendening	Rasmussen
-0.14	-0.31	-0.33
Abdelkader	de la Rose	Helm
-0.13	-0.27	-0.06

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Dekeyser	Green
-0.27	-0.17
Kronwall	Hronek
-0.22	-0.12
Ericsson	Cholowski
-0.29	+0.02

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Don't mind me, I just wanted to see what the differences looked like (DRW - average).

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

That's an excellent breakdown of the team's options going forward.

 

[Shaman464]

If you have a chance to sign a great player like KArlsson, you'll do it no matter what. It's better thing than any change in draft pick height.

Also playoff experience for this young generation will be critical at this point of their development. I'll buy that Holland talk 100%. Multiple losing seasons builds... a loser.

Playoff-styled matchup hockey against same opponent is a totally different sport. If you miss that for years, it takes years to learn it again. Faster you get the first experience, faster you have chance for Cup and the core age won't by-pass you when you are learning that playoff-thing too late.

This makes no sense whatsoever. I'd take a 1OA over a 29 UFA Karlsson everyday of the week. There is a lot packed into this. First, with a 1OA you're guaranteed nearly a decade of their best play. Second, you're doing it at below market value. Third, Karlsson doesn't make this team a winner by default, just a more mediocre loser.

 

[Larkin2AA]

If you have a chance to sign a great player like KArlsson, you'll do it no matter what. It's better thing than any change in draft pick height.

Also playoff experience for this young generation will be critical at this point of their development. I'll buy that Holland talk 100%. Multiple losing seasons builds... a loser.

Playoff-styled matchup hockey against same opponent is a totally different sport. If you miss that for years, it takes years to learn it again. Faster you get the first experience, faster you have chance for Cup and the core age won't by-pass you when you are learning that playoff-thing too late.

No... I don't sign Karlsson if I have the chance. I really wouldn't because I don't know if he is a legit #1 Defenseman anymore. I would be ecstatic with him on the second line, but he costs way too much for that (and he isn't coming here to be a 2nd line defender). His defensive play has been bad (at least from what I have seen this playoffs), and for an offensive defenseman I just haven't been impressed these past 2 years with his production. A lot of that could be because of the other defensive talent he has around him, but it could be because he is in a decline. If we sign him, I guarantee it would be for a long term deal that could cripple the Wings ability to gather other talent needed over the next few years.

I understand this team needs a #1 or a 1st line player on defense, but I really don't think Karlsson is the answer anymore.

 

[SirloinUB]

This makes no sense whatsoever. I'd take a 1OA over a 29 UFA Karlsson everyday of the week. There is a lot packed into this. First, with a 1OA you're guaranteed nearly a decade of their best play. Second, you're doing it at below market value. Third, Karlsson doesn't make this team a winner by default, just a more mediocre loser.

1) Should be true, but there is a risk that they aren't actually an impact player/are less impactful than you hope, like Nugent-Hopkins, Yakupov or others. There is definitely less risk with a guy like Karlsson.

2) This is true for the first 3 years but recent trends with Ekblad, Matthews and McDavid contradict your claim. Mackinnon would probably be included here but he broke out after signing an extension, you cant make this assumption that we would be so lucky.

3) If you're going to make this claim it's just as true about a player drafted 1st overall.


My opinion is that we should do both: Target elite players in Free Agency and the draft.

 

[TCNorthstars]

This makes no sense whatsoever. I'd take a 1OA over a 29 UFA Karlsson everyday of the week. There is a lot packed into this. First, with a 1OA you're guaranteed nearly a decade of their best play. Second, you're doing it at below market value. Third, Karlsson doesn't make this team a winner by default, just a more mediocre loser.

An 18% chance of drafting a potential elite player (no guarantee that the 1oa is elite) or 100% getting an elite player + a 6% chance of drafting a potential elite player. I know which sounds better to me.

 

[Shaman464]

An 18% chance of drafting a potential elite player (no guarantee that the 1oa is elite) or 100% getting an elite player + a 6% chance of drafting a potential elite player. I know which sounds better to me.

An elite player for how long? 1-2 more years? Maybe 3-4? Or maybe his ankle gives out, or his groin? Or his trend in Ottawa of declining ability to drive possession is real? And his numbers tank after he comes to Detroit? And pay him 12+ million for the rest of the period? The best case scenario by signing EK is the team becomes a bubble team at the time when they need multiple high end players that are best obtained through the draft. The worst case is that they have another shit contract on another vet that aged like milk in the sun.

I think people are also not actually watching him, but stat watching. One good thing about living in Arizona is that the SJS/LVK games start at 7 my time. He has been -7 the last 3 games. He has been an utter train wreck defensively, against a team which isn't known to have a high powered offense. And EK won't have Bert Burns and Vlasic to hid behind.

 

[Hen Kolland]

I don't vehemently disagree with anything he's got here, and I know a few people have touched on it, but my only two critiques would be:

• He kind of glances over it in the draft discussion, but unless I'm missing something, he's only hypothetically spoke on 2 hypothetical selections (Cozens and Byram) in addition to the 2 assumed selections (Hughes and Kakko) ahead of the Wings. There is a 5th player who he didn't address, and there is without a doubt a scenario where Turcotte goes somewhere in the 3-5 range, so I'd be interested in what the decision after that is, just more so out of curiosity. I assume he goes with Dach in this scenario.
• If we are choosing to be saddled with a bad defenseman like Ericsson or Daley, why would we not buy out Daley's final season (lowest financial impact on 2020-21) and resign Kronwall? Kronwall is a better player, even at his age, and has more to offer as a mentor of players like Hronek, Cholowski, and Bowey.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

An 18% chance of drafting a potential elite player (no guarantee that the 1oa is elite) or 100% getting an elite player + a 6% chance of drafting a potential elite player. I know which sounds better to me.

That's ignoring Karlsson's salary, term and health, the current state of the Wing's roster, and the path forward to building a Cup competitive team.

I can understand wanting to sign Karlsson but the variables are not as simple as you described.

 

[avssuc]

No... I don't sign Karlsson if I have the chance. I really wouldn't because I don't know if he is a legit #1 Defenseman anymore. I would be ecstatic with him on the second line, but he costs way too much for that (and he isn't coming here to be a 2nd line defender). His defensive play has been bad (at least from what I have seen this playoffs), and for an offensive defenseman I just haven't been impressed these past 2 years with his production. A lot of that could be because of the other defensive talent he has around him, but it could be because he is in a decline. If we sign him, I guarantee it would be for a long term deal that could cripple the Wings ability to gather other talent needed over the next few years.

I understand this team needs a #1 or a 1st line player on defense, but I really don't think Karlsson is the answer anymore.

Yea, the more I watch SJ, the more I want the Wings to avoid him in FA.

 

[datsyukfan]

Karllson is clearly playing hurt. The real question is: is his injury something thats going to plague him for the rest of his career or is it just an injury where he gets it fixed and he is back. IMO SJ is playing him way too much in bad matchups against Stone's line when he is clearly hurt. They are probably better to play him 18 mins in good matchups and a tun on the pp due to his inury. I can see why they are playing him this much as probably their best matchup d-man is hurt (Vlasic)

 

[Henkka]

Where can I find these "Game score" ratings?

 

[jkutswings]

Mantha	Larkin	Bertuzzi
-0.02	+0.09	-0.37
Vanek	Nielsen	Athanasiou
-0.30	-0.49	-0.07
Hirose	Glendening	Rasmussen
-0.14	-0.31	-0.33
Abdelkader	de la Rose	Helm
-0.13	-0.27	-0.06

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Dekeyser	Green
-0.27	-0.17
Kronwall	Hronek
-0.22	-0.12
Ericsson	Cholowski
-0.29	+0.02

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Don't mind me, I just wanted to see what the differences looked like (DRW - average).

Thank you for posting the differences, and thank you @Frk It for posting the article in the first place. I love the analysis that went into this, but...

Why exactly aren't Mantha and AA well on their way to becoming exactly what the average metrics are calling for? (Or maybe even a little better?) That's the one part either I'm reading wrong, or think the author underrated the roster on.

I've been as skeptical as anybody for a few years now, but one good choice at #6 this June, and the forwards are in very good shape, all things considered.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Where can I find these "Game score" ratings?

hockeystatcards.com

I know Prashanth included it in his piece, but if you're curious as to what game score is and how Dom Luszczyszyn came up with it, you can read about it here: Measuring Single Game Productivity: An Introduction To Game Score