state the case because I do not see it.
Sundin has the better career
Naslund has the better peak
Gladly. This has become a discussion topic on the Sens board recently, and, I always love this topic.
To start off, Alfie is not yet a hall of famer. He has an impressive list of accomplishments, but, like you said, he can't get in on his peak play alone, since he doesn't have the relevant hardware or accomplishments, nor does he have the longevity. But, his list of accomplishments get him close, as of right now.
On the longevity and career stat front, he suffers from coming into the league much later than a lot of other comparable players. He was a late bloomer, he only was drafted at 21, and debuted at 22. When he did arrive to the NHL, it was at the start of the dead puck era, and, for many of his early seasons, struggled with injuries.
However, once he got past some early career injuries, he's established himself as a perrenial offensive force in the league. Since the 2001-02 season, he is third in points in the league. Only Joe Thornton and Jaromir Jagr are ahead of him, and, if you take into account playoff points, he actually jumps ahead of Jagr in this category.
In terms of awards and recognition, he has a few things to his name. He has a Calder win. He's been nominated for the Byng. He has a second team all-star selection. While he hasn't been nominated for the Selke, he's received significant votes towards it (I think he's finished fourth before), and, has been viewed as one of the best two-way players in the game now for a number of years. He's finished top 5 in Hart voting, which is his best showing in this category. His playoff goal total from last year is tied for the highest amount since prior to 2001 (couldn't dig back farther on NHL.com, and didn't feel like continuing to dig). Unfortunately, that accomplishment is diminised because Pisani also shares that record. He tied for the league in scoring, and, was just generally seen as the best forward in the playoffs this past year.
Prior to that, people seem to selectively recall the Sens failures, but, Alfie produced pretty consistently for a long time in the post-season for the Sens, which is the reason why he survived many of the transitions that occured. I used to have the stats, but, between 1997 to 2002, Alfie contributed about 40-50% of the team's offence in the post-season. He was clearly a guy that was forced to go it alone, due to the lack of other players who could step up in the playoffs. His goals per game actually is higher in the playoffs, than the regular season (about .43 to .38). Unfortunately, he went through a dry spell for a couple of seasons in the post-season, and, those are the ones that people focus on. Even then, he was still producing somewhat, just not his usual standards.
But, add all of that up, and, it still falls short of a HHOF resume. What makes him an interesting case though, is, at the age of 35, he's playing his best hockey of his career. He's having a season where he is a serious contender for things like the Art Ross, Hart, Pearson and Selke trophies right now. He's showing no signs of slowing down, and, has a supporting cast right now, where he can continue to make a mark in the playoffs.
There exists the strong potential for Alfie to reach some serious accomplishments that will be hard to ignore. For a guy that has only come in during the dead puck era, he is only 12 points shy of a point a game pace. Who knows how many seasons he has left, but, at his pace post-lockout, it will only be a few more seasons before he hits the 1000 game plateau. I think he's almost a sure bet to end up in top 3 in scoring through the decade of the 2000's, with it still possible to end up as the highest scorer for the entire decade. I haven't crunched the numbers starting from the begining of the decade, but, based on what I can see, he likely is in the top 3 right now.
But, I think his HHOF chances rest with his ability to deliver a cup. If he does that, his case will be pretty strong. The original comparison was to Sundin and Naslund, and, his last year's playoff is already better than the best either guy has played in the playoffs.
