Friedman: Possible Mathew Barzal Offer Sheet

[nergish]

He’s such a great player, any team could use that speed.

Mindful of how Toronto boys always want to “come home” and play for the Leafs, I wonder if Mat was in Nucks jammies as a kid.

 

[SI90]

Some of the recent RFA deals, which I suppose would be Barzal's "comparables":
McDavid - 12.5
Matthews - 11.6
Marner - 10.9
Eichel - 10.0
Rantanen - 9.25
Draisaitl - 8.5
Aho - 8.454
Hischier - 7.25
Keller - 7.15
Connor - 7.14
Tkachuk - 7.0
Nylander - 6.96
Point - 6.75

The top four names are probably not comparables. I don't think Rantanen or Draisaitl would be, either.

So you're looking at somewhere between Point's $6.75 and Aho's $8.454 per year for Barzal's deal. Point and Tkachuk signed for less years, so they're probably not a comparable. Nylander and Connor are primarily wingers, who probably will get a bit less just by virtue of their position. Hischier and Keller signed for $7.15 to $7.25, and neither has proven as much as Barzal.

So now we're somewhere in the $7.3 to $8.454 range. My guess is that's the range Barzal will sign for if it's a 5 year or so deal. If the Isles get a full 8 years, then maybe bump that up to just under $9 million.

I’d sign up for $8mil but I wouldn’t be mad if they went to $8.5. With the flat cap I’m hoping it keeps some of these deals down. I wouldn’t mind 5 years but 8 years I think it might actually go at $9mil or even above because you’re buying a couple UFA years.

 

[Halla]

Habs should do 10.5 (pair of 1sts, 2nd and a 3rd). Isles probably cant match that, or cant afford pulock if they do

Barzal
Suzuki
Danault
JK

would be the deepest they have been down the middle in recent memory

 

[bobholly39]

Habs should do 10.5 (pair of 1sts, 2nd and a 3rd). Isles probably cant match that, or cant afford pulock if they do

Barzal
Suzuki
Danault
JK

would be the deepest they have been down the middle in recent memory

I'd do that in a heartbeat as a Habs fan - but I don't see Islanders letting him walk for anything below 4 1st rounders. And he's simply not worth that much.

It doesn't really matter if 10.5M$ is overpaying him or not on the salary front- we don't own his rights. I'd pay ~2M$ extra per year to acquire a player of his caliber.

 

[Isles72]

somewhere between aho-m.tkachuk is my dart .

7.75 x 3-4 years

 

[Merrrlin]

somewhere between aho-m.tkachuk is my dart .

7.75 x 3-4 years

That's not bad at all. I like the idea of bridging him, although if I am Barzal, I'm not sure I love that. Maybe 7.5x3. I imagine at 6 years he's looking at closer to 8.5-9.

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

That's not bad at all. I like the idea of bridging him, although if I am Barzal, I'm not sure I love that. Maybe 7.5x3. I imagine at 6 years he's looking at closer to 8.5-9.

That is what I expect. Allows him to get an 8 year deal at 10+ after the league is "back to normal" (Seattle, new TV contract, whatever) and at age 26.

 

[2Pair]

They are not because they don't have them and won't get get them. Move along now.

If you can't even keep up with the conversation, perhaps you're the one that needs to move along.

 

[Guttersniped]

Delete

 

[BatVader]

Jets will take Pulock so the Isles can keep Barzal... what’s the price?

 

[Isles72]

Jets will take Pulock so the Isles can keep Barzal... what’s the price?

Ehlers , straight up

 

[Don Cherry]

Seems like a close to 8 mil player to me.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

If you really want to do it and not do the 4 firsts route, do a 4 year x 10.5 per. Kind of like what they did to Aho, you screw the original team by giving a short term deal making them have to spend way more in 3-4 years on the same guy.

 

[The Real JT]

If you really want to do it and not do the 4 firsts route, do a 4 year x 10.5 per. Kind of like what they did to Aho, you screw the original team by giving a short term deal making them have to spend way more in 3-4 years on the same guy.

And that helps your team how?

You know the Isles would undoubtedly match, so why bother?

It would only poison the water for future potential trades between the two teams or possibly spur an offer sheet down the road against your own player.

 

[BatVader]

Ehlers , straight up

Guess you’re out of luck

 

[GrandmaSlices51631]

If you can't even keep up with the conversation, perhaps you're the one that needs to move along.

Ok, continue fantasizing about players the Wild won't get. When Barzal signs a contract with the Islanders we can all move along and discuss the next big offer sheet, which never happens.

 

[TorontoMedia]

somewhere between aho-m.tkachuk is my dart .

7.75 x 3-4 years

Hischier got 7.25, he will be asking for upwards of 8 easily.

 

[Djp]

That's not bad at all. I like the idea of bridging him, although if I am Barzal, I'm not sure I love that. Maybe 7.5x3. I imagine at 6 years he's looking at closer to 8.5-9.

If it’s a 3 yr bridge look st Point and it be around there.

 

[Merrrlin]

If it’s a 3 yr bridge look st Point and it be around there.

Point is underpaid and plays in Florida, so I expect higher.

 

[613Leafer]

I never really buy the offersheet threat for big name players.

If you actually want to get a decent young player by offersheet, target the secondary young guys on teams with no capspace. Offersheet Dermott for 3M and you only give up a 2nd rounder, but the Leafs would be very hard pressed to match.

Last year Pittsburgh could have offersheeted Kapanen for 4M if he'd remained unsigned and only given up a 2nd rounder. Instead they traded a 1st and a decent B prospect for him with one year of his contract already burned.

Target Cirelli on Tampa. Guys like that. Barzal? Get out of here, nobody is offering something that gives up four unprotected 1st rounders and anything below that is being matched.

 

[dlawong]

Actually, 4 1st rounders for Barzal sound pretty good with 2022 being another strong and deep draft. Go ahead and do that if you are in the western conference with cap space and not yet a top contending team. Isles may be very tempted to do this, it will help them get their prospect depth back to close to where Rags is now in 4 years. They can use one of that four 1st to dump Ladd's contract immediately. Comes worst after the Seattle waiver draft, with all that extra cap space available in 2 years before Belmont opens, they can go after some of the big-name RFA or UFA then. Nelson's line is playing like a 1st line anyway in the playoff and Pageau can handle 2nd line center duty. You can find much cheaper 3rd & 4th line centers in the UFA market or land one via trade or the UFA college route.

The four 1st can actually solve a lot of problems Isles has and since 2020-2021 may be another bump year (gate attendance-wise), losing Barzal may not have that much financial impact and the Seattle draft will weaken the line-up depth of most older contending teams. They can use that space to go after a big name UFA when Belmont opens - new arena and top money can attract players especially those already has an SC ring and has ties with families living in either the North East or European regions.

If the offer sheet is anything less than three unconditional 1st round (2022 must be included) and one 2020 2nd rounder then forget it and Isles will match even they need to overpay a little bit. If they have no cap to do this or the price is not reasonable, they will trade him for either a top prospect center (or a 2022 unconditional 1st rounder) + a 2020 2nd round + a cheap 3rd line center to a western conference team with enough cap space to fit Barzal in their line-up.

Alternatively, Isles can match Barzal to any offer sheet and then make a quick deal with Seattle to take him in the early stage of the expansion draft for a load of high nonconditional 1st round picks. It may be a win-win for everyone at the end. Seattle will definitely jump on board as they need to reach the cap floor and can definitely use an exciting center that they most likely will be able to resign as an UFA (due to his close tie to hometown Vancouver) to jumpstart their franchise.

 

[Price is Wright]

I'm sure they'll find a way to get rid of Ladd, if not they'll move Cizikas cheap since he's only got one year left.

 

[usekakkorightquinn]

Actually, 4 1st rounders for Barzal sound pretty good with 2022 being another strong and deep draft. Go ahead and do that if you are in the western conference with cap space and not yet a top contending team. Isles may be very tempted to do this, it will help them get their prospect depth back to close to where Rags is now in 4 years. They can use one of those 4 1st to dump Ladd's contract immediately. Comes worst after the Seattle waiver draft, with all that extra cap space available in 2 years, they can go after some of the big-name RFA or UFA then. Nelson's line is playing like a 1st line anyway in the playoff and Pageau can handle 2nd line center duty. You can find much cheaper 3rd & 4th line centers in the UFA market or land one via trade or the UFA college route.

The four 1st can actually solve a lot of problems Isles has and since 2020-2021 may be another bump year (gate attendance-wise), losing Barzal may not have that much impact and the Seattle draft will weaken the line-up depth of most contending teams. They can use that space to go after a big name UFA when Belmont opens - new arena, money can attract players especially those already has an SC ring.

Four extra first rounders still wouldn't get you close to the Rangers. Stop with your fantasies. If the Islanders lost Barzal they would be a team drafting 10th to 20th for the next 8 years. The team getting him most likely would be drafting 20th to 28th. So, don't count on those first rounders helping you that much.

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

Guess you’re out of luck

Well I mean, what do you expect to get a first pairing defenseman for, Jack Roslovic and a 2nd?

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

Four extra first rounders still wouldn't get you close to the Rangers. Stop with your fantasies. If the Islanders lost Barzal they would be a team drafting 10th to 20th for the next 8 years. The team getting him most likely would be drafting 20th to 28th. So, don't count on those first rounders helping you that much.