Friedman: Possible Mathew Barzal Offer Sheet

[dlawong]

Four extra first rounders still wouldn't get you close to the Rangers. Stop with your fantasies. If the Islanders lost Barzal they would be a team drafting 10th to 20th for the next 8 years. The team getting him most likely would be drafting 20th to 28th. So, don't count on those first-rounders helping you that much.

With the lottery system, you will never know and if the draft year is deep you can find gems with the late picks. With two 1st round picks for each year of the next 3 years (assuming 1 can be used to dump the Ladd contract), the chance of winning or find good prospects can be doubled. Unless if NHL undo the lottery system and go back to the old system. Barzal himself was drafted with the 15th overall pick too & Point was not even picked in the 1st round as many of the top forwards on the Tampa team (with Stamkos and Hedman as an exception). If you draft well, you can find gems. 1st round picks are also extremely valuable in trade deals as well.

 

[dlawong]

As an Isles fan, I do worry about wasting too much money on Barzal and not finding a potential young prime center prospect to be developed over the next 3 years ready to replace him down the road. Only saying this as I can foresee an extremely high possibility that he would be on the Seattle team while still in his prime - just too much connection (families located in Vancouver and played most of his major junior career in Seattle with a big fan following already). Seattle has money plus a cap and will go hard after him when he turns UFA in about 5 to 6 years. If he is heading out there in 5 or 6 years anyway why not trading him early to get the most assets you can get from that team, especially if his RFA contract will leave very little room for Isles to keep the team as a contender for years. Tavares has opened up the minds of all franchise UFA now. You will see a trend of more top young UFA leaving their respective teams to go to other teams for money and to be close to their and in-law families. Young people do not care about loyalty as much these days as you can see in the white color employment market. Those days employees stay a long time with the same company is mostly gone, at least from what I heard from young people. Actually, they are encouraged to change careers every 3 years to fast track promotions and get better overall career experiences.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

No one has the balls. The Islanders will extend him.

 

[seabass45]

As an Isles fan, I do worry about wasting too much money on Barzal and not finding a potential young prime center prospect to be developed over the next 3 years ready to replace him down the road. Only saying this as I can foresee an extremely high possibility that he would be on the Seattle team while still in his prime - just too much connection (families located in Vancouver and played most of his major junior career in Seattle with a big fan following already). Seattle has money plus a cap and will go hard after him when he turns UFA in about 5 to 6 years. If he is heading out there in 5 or 6 years anyway why not trading him early to get the most assets you can get from that team, especially if his RFA contract will leave very little room for Isles to keep the team as a contender for years. Tavares has opened up the minds of all franchise UFA now. You will see a trend of more top young UFA leaving their respective teams to go to other teams for money and to be close to their and in-law families. Young people do not care about loyalty as much these days as you can see in the white color employment market. Those days employees stay a long time with the same company is mostly gone.

With all due respect... no.

 

[kerrabria]

i don't get where this "offersheets break the sacred rules" comes from. offersheets get put in front of players every year. Marner field offers from Minnesota and Columbus, but he didn't want to play for them, so he didn't sign.
Barzal obviously wants to be given his offers and look them over. Even if it's just so that he can use them as leverage from Lou who is most definitely low balling--just like Isles fans on here are. I mean, 8m? c'mon. Insulting offer.

 

[Isles72]

Hischier got 7.25, he will be asking for upwards of 8 easily.

nico got a 7 year deal , not a bridge . He probably gets between 4-5 mil per on a 2 year bridge deal if he went that route . If Barzal went for the security of an 8 year deal I'd suspect it would be 9-10 mil per .

 

[Bouboumaster]

I would do Domi, 1st 2020, 1st 2021 and a prospect to get Barzal.
And if it was to be refused, I'd go Offer Sheet 10M$ for 6 or 7 years, and trade Domi elsewhere (or just keep him as a winger)

 

[blinkman360]

As an Isles fan, I do worry about wasting too much money on Barzal and not finding a potential young prime center prospect to be developed over the next 3 years ready to replace him down the road. Only saying this as I can foresee an extremely high possibility that he would be on the Seattle team while still in his prime - just too much connection (families located in Vancouver and played most of his major junior career in Seattle with a big fan following already). Seattle has money plus a cap and will go hard after him when he turns UFA in about 5 to 6 years. If he is heading out there in 5 or 6 years anyway why not trading him early to get the most assets you can get from that team, especially if his RFA contract will leave very little room for Isles to keep the team as a contender for years. Tavares has opened up the minds of all franchise UFA now. You will see a trend of more top young UFA leaving their respective teams to go to other teams for money and to be close to their and in-law families. Young people do not care about loyalty as much these days as you can see in the white color employment market. Those days employees stay a long time with the same company is mostly gone, at least from what I heard from young people. Actually, they are encouraged to change careers every 3 years to fast track promotions and get better overall career experiences.

Drafting a stud C is really a luxury at this point and not a need. If Barzal signs you have your top-3 centers locked up for at least 4 or 5 years. At that point you’re looking for a guy you can stash in BP as emergency depth, but as far as grooming replacements go, 4 years should be more than enough time to find one center.

 

[punk_o_holic]

i don't get where this "offersheets break the sacred rules" comes from. offersheets get put in front of players every year. Marner field offers from Minnesota and Columbus, but he didn't want to play for them, so he didn't sign.
Barzal obviously wants to be given his offers and look them over. Even if it's just so that he can use them as leverage from Lou who is most definitely low balling--just like Isles fans on here are. I mean, 8m? c'mon. Insulting offer.

That might not be true. Columbus wanted 7 years and Marner's camp countered with a short term deal that would take him straight to UFA. Columbus didn't want to give up the assets for short term so talks ended. Now I have no idea if Marner would have signed if Columbus agreed to the short term deal. I wonder how many offer sheets are countered like this. Willing to sign an offer sheet but only if they get money and straight to UFA. And speaking of Columbus, Jarmo said he had considered offer sheets for this off season(I'm sure all GM's do, doing their job) but also went onto say you have to be very careful when it comes to offer sheets.

 

[nickschultzfan]

Rangers should go for it.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

Rangers should go for it.

Not worth it.

 

[TheBloodyNine]

I would do Domi, 1st 2020, 1st 2021 and a prospect to get Barzal.
And if it was to be refused, I'd go Offer Sheet 10M$ for 6 or 7 years, and trade Domi elsewhere (or just keep him as a winger)

I'm glad you'd do that because I'm pretty certain the Islanders wouldn't.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

If the Wild offer-sheeted Barzal 7x10.5 it would cost 2 1st + 2nd + 3rd. If we then traded Dumba for a 1st and 2nd we’d still have 2 first in the next two years and it wouldn’t be a huge hit in terms of futures assets 10.5 is at least a 2 million dollar overpay I think, though if he becomes a 90 point center it’s for value. I’d think that’s a lot more than the Islander are planning to pay him, but I suspect it’d still be matched and they just lose a few other good players

 

[sabremike]

If the Wild offer-sheeted Barzal 7x10.5 it would cost 2 1st + 2nd + 3rd. If we then traded Dumba for a 1st and 2nd we’d still have 2 first in the next two years and it wouldn’t be a huge hit in terms of futures assets 10.5 is at least a 2 million dollar overpay I think, though if he becomes a 90 point center it’s for value. I’d think that’s a lot more than the Islander are planning to pay him, but I suspect it’d still be matched and they just lose a few other good players

You still have yet to offer a coherent reason as to why he would leave a team where he's had lots of success playing under the greatest coach of this era to go to the Wild.

 

[dlawong]

If the Wild offer-sheeted Barzal 7x10.5 it would cost 2 1st + 2nd + 3rd. If we then traded Dumba for a 1st and 2nd we’d still have 2 first in the next two years and it wouldn’t be a huge hit in terms of futures assets 10.5 is at least a 2 million dollar overpay I think, though if he becomes a 90 point center it’s for value. I’d think that’s a lot more than the Islander are planning to pay him, but I suspect it’d still be matched and they just lose a few other good players

So if Isles match the offer sheet, what does Minny really get out of this as making Isles one of the worst cap teams does not help Minny in any way as they are not competing for a playoff spot with each other? If Minny has a good deal for Dumba on the table (say getting back a good young roster player plus an NHL ready prospect), do they wait to see what Isles will do before they move Dumba? You make deals on the probability of completing that deal that can help your team immediately and timing is everything because every deal you move will impact every other subsequent move for both your team and possibly open up the opportunity for the teams you are fighting for the playoff spot. What if this offer sheet forces Isles to move Pulock or Toews to a Central or Pacific division team badly need defense upgrade? All trades may lead to other moves that may backfire on your own team.

By the way, the two 1st rounders must include one from 2022 (not lottery protected) and another one from either 2020 or 2021 or there is no value

From what I read, Isles will most likely match any offer sheet for Barzal even if it is not ideal and subsequently trade other players on the team to find cap space (even if those deals are not on the winning side). If I am a younger new GM, I personally may entertain the four picks but Lou will not go for it as most GM will not sacrifice the short term for the long term, especially in Lou's case (as he may retire soon and would like to get another SC before he does). Anything over 10M per year may be too much for most GM appetites unless that money is spent on players on the proven elite level of McDavid, Matthews, and alike.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

You still have yet to offer a coherent reason as to why he would leave a team where he's had lots of success playing under the greatest coach of this era to go to the Wild.

If the Islanders are offering him the point contract and we throw 75 million dollars at him is that not enough of a reason to sign? He’d likely be doing so hoping NYI matches.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

So if Isles match the offer sheet, what does Minny really get out of this as making Isles the worst team does not help Minny in any way as they are not competing for a playoff spot? If Minny has a good deal for Dumba on the table (say getting back a good young roster player plus an NHL ready prospect), do they wait to see what Isles will do before they move Dumba? You make deals on probability of completing that deal and timing is everything because every deal you move will impact every other subsequent move for both your team and possibly open up the opportunity for the teams you are fighting for the playoff spot. What if this offer sheet forces Isles to move Pulock or Toews to a Central or Pacific division team badly need defense upgrade? All trades may lead to other moves that may backfire on your own team.

By the way, the two 1st rounder must include one from 2022 (not lottery protected) and another one from either 2020 or 2021 or there is no value.

I’m aware of how it works. I was just saying we could compensate for giving up our unprotected 1sts. The rationale for the offer-sheet would be to price him out of NYI

 

[Henkka]

Let the Nukes fly!

 

[ItWasJustified]

No one has the balls. The Islanders will extend him.

Lou will leave a severed horse's head in the other GM's beds, just in case.

 

[Bouboumaster]

I'm glad you'd do that because I'm pretty certain the Islanders wouldn't.

The offer would just be an extended hand, to offer them something good, just so they don't loose anything lol
But having 10M$, would they match it? If so, how?

 

[TheBloodyNine]

The offer would just be an extended hand, to offer them something good, just so they don't loose anything lol
But having 10M$, would they match it? If so, how?

They’ll cut a leg out somewhere else in order to match Barzal.

 

[Isles72]

The offer would just be an extended hand, to offer them something good, just so they don't loose anything lol
But having 10M$, would they match it? If so, how?

if they have to match 10 x 7 they may as well use their advantage of the 8th year and go 10 x 8

 

[BatVader]

Jets offer to trade for Pulock so Isles can keep Barzal

 

[4thline]

That might not be true. Columbus wanted 7 years and Marner's camp countered with a short term deal that would take him straight to UFA. Columbus didn't want to give up the assets for short term so talks ended. Now I have no idea if Marner would have signed if Columbus agreed to the short term deal. I wonder how many offer sheets are countered like this. Willing to sign an offer sheet but only if they get money and straight to UFA. And speaking of Columbus, Jarmo said he had considered offer sheets for this off season(I'm sure all GM's do, doing their job) but also went onto say you have to be very careful when it comes to offer sheets.

Which makes me think that it was a 10.6+ x 4 million dollar contract, because 1st+1st+2nd+3rd for 4 years of Marner is a steal scaled against rental prices.

 

[KrisBeKreame]

Jets offer to trade for Pulock so Isles can keep Barzal

Sure, Pulock for Ehlers straight up or Pulock, Komorov and Bellows for Laine.