With all the foreseeable moves for this summer done, I think it is time for a little analysis of how the summer actually went. As we all knew, Chevy had quite a bit on his plate, and here is our chance to crack down on all the moves he made from the draft to the present moment. Without further ado, let's go through these in a chronological order. Also, the more important moves will be weighted more heavily when calculating the final grade.
Disclaimer: these are highly subjective. Don't @ me.
The draft: C+
Not much to evaluate at this point. No deals were made on the draft floor, so the organisation saw six new faces coming in. Without picks earlier than the 60th, pushing the grade much above average was always going to be hard, but I'm going to give Chevy some credit here. Gustafsson seems to have been a great pick from a statistical point of view, and we did not exactly pick anyone who screams 'do not draft', so C+ seems to be just right. I did not find any HFJets poll for the public opinion, which I would have gone for if there was one.
Signing Morrow: C+
Hey, at least we did not throw that fourth rounder completely out of the window. A cheap depth option who can possibly keep Chiarot out of the lineup for a million: is there much to complain about?
Mason/Armia trade: E
At the time, clearing cap space was a necessary move that, quite simply, HAD to be done.
We are all in agreement? Good.
And even still, that trade sucks. Giving up Armia, an useful player who could have fetched some futures on his own (there was no way of keeping him even in the light of recent news, I reckon), two picks and a capable backup was an excessive price for shedding Mason's cap hit. 'Had to be done to make room for other big names!'
...right. At the time, this was closer to a C, but the grade has dropped like a stone ever since.
Kerdiles for De Leo: C
Almost forgot this even happened. Cannot think of a downside, so C it is.
Letting Stastny walk: B
Sounds odd to give a B for something like this, but at least there was one occasion in which Chevy fully recognised what should be prioritised over other things. Keeping Stastny would have been a nice one, but ultimately, we needed cap space for many other contracts...
this is already hurting me like hell
Signing Brossoit: C-
On one hand, we are looking very much like a one-goalie team. On the other hand, we're probably getting exactly what we paid for: a league-minimum player. Besides, with our budget (sigh), there was not a lot we could have gotten from the free agency, especially with other teams spending quite heavily on names like Halak and Khudobin.
Still wondering why the hell nobody has signed Mason or Lehtonen...
Signing the three AHLers: N/A
Here's one for a pub quiz: name all three of our signings for the Moose from July 1st.
Signing Hellebuyck: B+
Here's the first big fish, and even though the salary seems a little inflated (certainly in comparison to the numbers which were thrown around here in most predictions), we got one of the three cornerstones locked up long term. As people kindly pointed out at the time of the signings, 6.1 AAV is actually quite good for a goalie of Hellebuyck's caliber - even if the sample size isn't exactly ideal - and many other teams have paid a larger % of cap for their young starters in the past. It is great to have a somewhat stable solution in net... finally.
For those who are wondering, getting the dollar amount under 6 AAV would have pushed this to an A, at least in my books. Still, a great move by Chevy.
Signing Lowry: A
Simply put - a fantastic deal. Lowry had an impact of a top 6 C while playing with bottom 6 linemates last year. This was an analytics litmus test for the team, and Chevy passed it with flying colours, combining commitment to one of the most important bottom sixers on the team and avoiding a bloated deal based on one year of high-end play. Such a beautiful move: three years can hardly be considered risky, and the AAV is cheap in comparison to most 3Cs around.
Trouba arbitration: N/A, *OR* E-
Sigh. Y'all know what I think of this situation.
If - still an if - this was a case of Trouba not negotiating for a second and making his way out of Winnipeg the hard way, can we put Chevy at fault? I don't think we can, at least when evaluating his performance this summer. You cannot exactly force the player to sign.
If Trouba was willing to sign a contract with the Jets, we can - and should - blame Chevy here, big time. For God's sake - you have a young 1D in your hands. You paid for cap space to make your moves. What is the holdup? Statistics prove that Trouba has performed at a 1D level for the past two years: this is not a situation in which you cheap out on.
The only redeeming quality here is that the agent he was dealing with was Overhardt. That, and... for f***'s sake, we'll get to it later.
Signing Tanev: B-
Tanev does not bring much to the table on his own. However, he had some wild success with Lowry, and I don't mind bringing him back for another year to see if that success can be replicated. His speed helps an awful lot and he can forecheck. The B- comes from keeping the contract very, very short and small; Tanev is not a player who you should bet on long term, and this is probably an OK solution for us.
Signing Dano: C
I mean, someone has to man the pressbox, right?
He probably should get his shot, but man, is it a tough ask to break the forward lineup of ours. Dano is the type of player who you want for your depth guy, though, so seeing him get an opportunity would be nice.
Signing Poolman: B+
MAURICE. Chevy did his job - a terrific one at that - so listen up: now it is your turn. Give Poolman the 3rd pairing RD slot.
The sample size is very small here, but there is literally no risk attached to this deal. Getting a surefire NHL defenseman signed costs you more than 775k a year, and if Poolman never solidifies himself as that, the contract can be buried. On the other hand, this could be a key contract heading into the next two offseasons, during which we have a lot of deals to sign. A NHL RHD making under a million? Sign me up.
I can't give this one an A, largely because Poolman is not a sure thing by any means. Nevertheless, I like this contract, and now it is up to Maurice and Tucker himself to find out how much we can benefit from a cheap deal like this. These won't come around often.
Signing Petan: B
This is a B. Chevy literally paid the minimum amount on the dollar: what else can you ask for? Oh, that someone would actually give Petan a fair shake with NHL caliber linemates.
Signing Kerdiles: C
Blah.
Signing Vesalainen: A+
I'm in awe with how Chevy managed to get KV's signature for such a low amount of performance bonuses. Not only that, but those bonuses don't even kick in this year, which allows us to call him up without having to worry about the numbers too much. Especially in light of some other top rookies' ELCs, this was a very good move from Chevy. No complaints here.
Signing Wheeler: D
Quite a controversial one, this. I get it, the Cap'n was our MVP last year - at least I think so - and losing him for nothing would have been a big blow. Having said that... is a 32-year-old winger someone who we want to invest a lot of cap space in at this point? With so many young guns left to sign, this sure seems like an odd one to prioritise so highly.
There are a lot of redeeming qualities here: for one, Wheeler is pretty f***ing great. Secondly, I somehow have more faith in his longevity than in the cases of most 30+ players. Those are just two of many. Those don't remove all the risk that is associated with a contract like this. I'd like to be very wrong here, but the optimism just isn't there.
OK, here goes. Rant warning.
Signing Comrie: B-
(FFS, forgot this one)
Again, no downside to this deal. People don't like him, but it is not like we have a boatload of options, nor should we have five AHL goalies at once so that one of them could succeed in a pinch in a NHL game. It will be interesting to see which one of him and Brossoit makes the cut. I could see Comrie getting a chance or two. Let's hope that the small sample we have of him in the NHL does not represent him as a player.
Reloading rant...
Signing Morrissey: F-
This is inexcusable.
This should not have been an option.
Chevy has already gone down this path once - this bloody summer, for heaven's sake - with Trouba. A young top flight defenseman isn't signing with the team. By the looks of things, the future of the blue line looks shaky: one stud is aging, one is eyeing for an exit. It would sure be a shame to take an insane, unnecessary risk with the third one... and that is exactly what Chevy did.
This is not even a question of cap space. With all the bonuses factored in, we are looking at 3.3 million of cap room. You aren't seriously telling me that they couldn't have offered at least 5 AAV to Morrissey on a longer deal? What is that cap space good for now? They literally paid assets to free up some, and now it is going to waste, with two crucial defensemen on short-term deals?
Along with the Trouba situation, this makes me question the way this organisation evaluates defensemen. We have NOTHING at LHD after Morrissey, and they didn't see him as important enough to lock up now? What a tire fire.
Boom goes the final grade. One of the four big moves they made this summer bombed hard, and that will f***ing show.
Other things:
Losing Enstrom: this will hurt. Probably our best defenseman in terms of pure defensive ability last year. Somebody needs to step up and take on that tough role of Toby's. This won't affect the final grade, seeing as Toby was probably always going to return home.
Not trading Myers: a wasted opportunity. Given the fact that we don't have a backup goalie, keeping Mason and trading Armia and Myers would have been a better move in terms of asset management and roster fits. This should be a slight negative, but because this is highly speculative, it won't even be that.
Not signing an useless facepuncher/glue guy: Wow, they've learned.
Evaluation:
The events will be weighed differently based on their importance. The tiers are:
Tier 1: Hellebuyck/Trouba/Morrissey/Wheeler (highest weight, a little over 55% of final grade. Weighed equally.)
Tier 2: Draft/Lowry/Vesalainen/Mason trade (moderate weight. Lowry given more weight due to importance to the team, under 30% of the final grade.)
Tier 3: Tanev/Brossoit/Morrow/Poolman (Some weight, about 15%. All equal too.)
Tier 4: everything else (little weight, under 10% in total. All equal in this tier.)
Final grade: D+
The team did not suffer much in the short term, for the core stayed pretty much intact. There might be an area of weakness or two, but this should still be a 100-point team without too much hassle, even in the very strong Central. However, some of the moves that were made were could end up shortening the contention window by quite a bit, notably the horrendous Morrissey deal. On a more positive note, a couple of great depth moves could buy us some breathing room down the line - mainly Poolman and Lowry. Still, I am disappointed in how two (/three) of the four big moves were handled, which lowers the grade quite a bit. I hope that Chevy does better next year.