Post-Game Talk: Plus/Minus: Pens vs. CBJ - Backs against the wall edition

[RSPens]

If Rust is out then I'd like to see this

Jake - Sid - Horny (Jake and Sid obviously stay together)
ZAR - Geno - Bleuger (ZAR and Geno are looking great together)
McCann - Bjugstad - Kessel (McCann and Bjugs seem like a solid pair, and defensively can help Phil)
Simon - Cullen - Wilson (Cullen and Wilson have been great at generating momentum, Simon can be that spark plug with some skill)

The defense will obviously depend on who's available, however Johnson and Gudbranson will only be effective if they play with Letang, Schultz or Petterson. I like Riikola but I don't think he is good enough to cover up for the mistakes that Johnson and Gudbranson will make. Unfortunately the only player that I think Riikola meshes well with is Maatta. As mentioned earlier Trotman looked good last night, but as with a lot of AHL or #7 D, they usually look good in game 1-5 but anything beyond that is a stretch.

 

[ChaosAgent]

You can run Geno/Hornqvist, but you can't do it with ZAR on the opposite wing. Need Rust, Kessel etc on the opposite side. Someone who can transition and play in the rush with Geno.

At this point in time, Kessel/Malkin/Hornqvist is the kind of line that can sink a team. I'd stay away from this combination at all costs.

 

[RSPens]

My bad. You reference Scuderi-Gill and I was more commenting on the logic of that type of pairing in today's NHL. That pairing would blow today.

Personally I think JJ-Schultz can be fine, but that's more Schultz carrying JJ than Schultz actually benefiting from JJ. MP-Gudbranson is probably fine as a 3rd pair, but again, MP would be propping up Gudbranson IMO.

It would be much better if we could roll MP-Schultz and have a 3rd pairing that doesn't have two anchors on it.

I agree but JMFJ has actually been pretty good playing on his proper side and hasn't hurt Schultz since playing with him. I'm not as confident about Petterson being able to hide Gudbranson's warts, but he did a decent job of helping Johnson since arriving in Pittsburgh. As long as Gudbranson is sheltered and the plan when healthy is to play Maatta with Schultz and Johnson with Petterson, than the D is fine.

My main concern is that when the team is healthy the plan is to scratch Petterson. That can only end badly.

 

[Tasty Biscuits]

Why are we all so sensitive about Bryan Rust? I'm literally just pointing out something that happened in the midst of being extremely complimentary to him as a player. Because I like Bryan Rust and am glad he's a Penguin. Good lord.

We're not. It's just a crappy point that other people use from time to time that never makes any sense, so I'll call it out no matter whom it's used for (or against) just like I'm sure others would.

"Take away the shutouts and his stats aren't as good"
"Take away powerplay points and his numbers are garbage"
"Take away the month of November and his numbers are poor"
"Take away the good stuff and look at the bad stuff"

It's not some revelation. Most players aren't super consistent. The ones who are, generally make 5mil+ per year because that's harder to come by. And even then...

 

[Trade]

We're not. It's just a crappy point that other people use from time to time that never makes any sense, so I'll call it out no matter whom it's used for (or against) just like I'm sure others would.

"Take away the shutouts and his stats aren't as good"
"Take away powerplay points and his numbers are garbage"
"Take away the month of November and his numbers are poor"
"Take away the good stuff and look at the bad stuff"

It's not some revelation. Most players aren't super consistent. The ones who are, generally make 5mil+ per year because that's harder to come by. And even then...

This. If Bryan Rust scored consistently he'd be a 7-8 million dollar top line winger. He's not and judging him as if he is or should be is completely stupid.

No one is getting sensitive over Rust specifically, nice effort though.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

We're not. It's just a crappy point that other people use from time to time that never makes any sense, so I'll call it out no matter whom it's used for (or against) just like I'm sure others would.

"Take away the shutouts and his stats aren't as good"
"Take away powerplay points and his numbers are garbage"
"Take away the month of November and his numbers are poor"
"Take away the good stuff and look at the bad stuff"

It's not some revelation. Most players aren't super consistent. The ones who are, generally make 5mil+ per year because that's harder to come by. And even then...

I take your point and I see what ya mean. Truthfully I wasn't even really trying to like... make a thing out of it. It's just odd. I take a few half lighthearted shots at one of the top 25ish players of all time, a massive fan favorite and universally accepted glue guy and one of the greatest goal scoring wingers of our generation in the same thread and ya know... whatever. I say Rust seems a little injury prone and had a bad stretch earlier in the year which could be looked at to some as a mark of inconsistent play (which is relevant because of how much he is touted to and simply DOES play in the top six) and that's like... insanity. I don't care, honestly. It's just funny.

I'm sorry if I didn't communicate what I was trying to say well enough. But honestly it was just kind of a drive by.

 

[EliteGoaltending]

I've always said Geno was a better 200 foot player under Therrien and Johnson than under Bylsma and Sully. Support low, trap more in the neutral zone with less chasing hard all over the ice, and force turnovers in the neutral zone and counter always has been his strength as a 200 foot player.

I mean, when he's ON, he can play it any way, but the way we played it tonight plays to his 200 foot strengths.

Geno did play great defense under Sullivan just last year tho.
He had kinda similar season to this year Sid's season, where we see some people calling for Selke. He was constantly helping the D dig the pucks out in Dzone and winning quite a few one on one battles.
He never been a slack defensively under Sullivan and Blysma, regardless of systems, but maybe a bit more free floating under Blysma.

The thing is, Geno rarely had two wingers with a strong game away from the puck or wingers with a complete game. If he had, his line always would be in 55-60% possesion territory, I think.

 

[PensandCaps]

Call up Di Pauli for Rust. They're very similar players.

Insert Blueger for Wilson

 

[ncm7772]

This is a team that can win at will. Just depends on two things:

1. Their mood
2. Murray

They're not nearly good enough to win at will consistently, IMO.

 

[ChaosAgent]

We're not. It's just a crappy point that other people use from time to time that never makes any sense, so I'll call it out no matter whom it's used for (or against) just like I'm sure others would.

"Take away the shutouts and his stats aren't as good"
"Take away powerplay points and his numbers are garbage"
"Take away the month of November and his numbers are poor"
"Take away the good stuff and look at the bad stuff"

It's not some revelation. Most players aren't super consistent. The ones who are, generally make 5mil+ per year because that's harder to come by. And even then...

I just want to call this one out as being legit. By their nature powerplays are easier to score on...teams score at twice the rate (or higher) on powerplays versus even-strength and they do come down to the system and the collective unit a lot more than individual players.

It counts on the same on the scoreboard and I get that, but in thinking about player production we should absolutely separate out even strength and the PP. And I value a player who produces higher at ES and has good possession metrics at ES (Bryan Rust) than a player with crappy possession metrics at ES that produces a lot on the powerplay (Phil Kessel).

Your other examples are accurate though.

 

[EliteGoaltending]

Call up Di Pauli for Rust. They're very similar players.

Insert Blueger for Wilson

Didn't watch the game, but looking at the ice time Wilson only played 6 min, even with one forward down for most of the game.
4th line didn't play much at all last night.

 

[madinsomniac]

Why are we all so sensitive about Bryan Rust? I'm literally just pointing out something that happened in the midst of being extremely complimentary to him as a player. Because I like Bryan Rust and am glad he's a Penguin. Good lord.

I definitely wasn't one of the people in here screaming for him to get traded when he didn't score a goal for like a month straight. But that DID happen.

EDIT: Like... I spend a fair amount of posts *****ing about just about every Penguin player and I say a couple of mildly down things about ol' Rusty and that's the line. Just funny.

If you haven’t noticed every slump is knee jerked with trade proposals around here... lol

Im all for making hockey trades for better fits or moving picks for better players, but the whole trade player in a slump thing does get bothersome... water finds its level... you shouldn’t sell low on guys when they have a down season any more than you give a big contract to an established guy coming off of an atypical career year...

 

[Tasty Biscuits]

It counts on the same on the scoreboard and I get that, but in thinking about player production we should absolutely separate out even strength and the PP. And I value a player who produces higher at ES and has good possession metrics at ES (Bryan Rust) than a player with crappy possession metrics at ES that produces a lot on the powerplay (Phil Kessel).

We're opening up a can of sidetrack worms. I'd take the Kessel of any years past over Rust during the same time-frame. Obviously these last few months have been a bit of a different story.

Washington rode a hot PP to the cup. If you're a player who cleans up there, it's absolutely a boon to your team. Until you don't anymore, of course.

Anyway, I think we're mostly in agreement anyway. If Player A scores 50 points (40 ES, 10 PP) and Player B scores 50 points (10 ES, 40 PP), sure, give me Player A. But if Player B scores an extra 30 points than A, all on the PP, then I'm taking B. I realize all the numerical aspect of these examples are trash, but the point still stands in terms of the ratio.

Where people start using it to devalue a player in a vacuum (as opposed to comparing them to another) is where I just roll my eyes. Same thing with secondary assists, especially for defensemen. That's gotta be the dumbest one yet.

 

[UnderratedBrooks44]

I just want to call this one out as being legit. By their nature powerplays are easier to score on...teams score at twice the rate (or higher) on powerplays versus even-strength and they do come down to the system and the collective unit a lot more than individual players.

It counts on the same on the scoreboard and I get that, but in thinking about player production we should absolutely separate out even strength and the PP. And I value a player who produces higher at ES and has good possession metrics at ES (Bryan Rust) than a player with crappy possession metrics at ES that produces a lot on the powerplay (Phil Kessel).

Your other examples are accurate though.

It's a little murkier than that though. Another reason PPs are way easier to score on is because not only do you have a man advantage, you also have your generally agreed upon best offensive players out on the ice to take advantage of it. Goal scoring will always be more or less the hardest thing to find in this league. I like Rust as much as the next Penguin fan but he is not as valuable as a player like Kessel and probably never will be.

Needless to say, I also completely disagree that power play success is dictated more by system and the 5-man unit than individuals. The PP has never been treated as some sort of plug and play-type proposition by any team or coach ever, and for good reason.

 

[pistolpete11]

Puck luck is a real thing depending on the player you are. Nobody is criticizing Evgeni Malkin's freshly-minted 20 goals as a result of bad puck luck. Or hardly anyone.

I apologize for besmirching the good name of Bryan Rust.

Just don't let it happen again.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Call up Di Pauli for Rust. They're very similar players.

Insert Blueger for Wilson

I’ve slowly become a big GW guy but imo it’s time to put some new blood in on that 4th line; even if only for a couple of games. He hasn’t been noticeable of late.

Idk about DiPauli though, would think that Blandisi is next in line of the forwards with Dea traded.

 

[EliteGoaltending]

Can we maybe acknowledge that putting players in the right spot plays a huge part in them succeeding?

All it takes is a glance at Hornqvist out of the top 6 for the last 10+ games and then how he's looked since moving back to Sid's RW.

Kessel works best with a speed demon who can do a lot of his dirty work like Hags, aka Rust or McCann. Maybe try one of those guys with him and see if that stokes anything.

Kessel, even on his best days i.e when he's good with the puck and brings an effort away from the puck time to time, needs to play opposite a speedy forchecker, not to mention when he's on his wrost days.
Similiar to Hornqvist having a skilfull winger oposite as a must.

What I would like to see for the Pens in the future is more wingers with a complete game, a la Guentzel. Too many complications with guys like Phil and Horny in top 6.
When they traded Hagelin for Pearson, I was hoping he could bring that well-rounded game, but he sucked.

 

[ChaosAgent]

It's a little murkier than that though. Another reason PPs are way easier to score on is because not only do you have a man advantage, you also have your generally agreed upon best offensive players out on the ice to take advantage of it. Goal scoring will always be more or less the hardest thing to find in this league. I like Rust as much as the next Penguin fan but he is not as valuable as a player like Kessel and probably never will be.

Needless to say, I also completely disagree that power play success is dictated more by system and the 5-man unit than individuals. The PP has never been treated as some sort of plug and play-type proposition by any team or coach ever, and for good reason.

Sure. But if those are your best offensive players, their ES numbers ought to confirm it anyway. From a numbers standpoint the powerplay and its associated stats is the numerical reward that those players get to experience for being so good offensively at ES.

It's like when people compare goal production in soccer between a player who is the primary Penalty Kick-taker and a player who isn't. It's completely unfair because only one player got that opportunity. Let's say player A (the PK taker) has 15 goals in open play and goes 9/10 (90%) in PKs. Player B (who doesn't take PKs) has 18 goals in open play and based on other examples would be estimated to go 80% in PKs. So the actual marginal value that the PK-taker has over the non-PK-taker is a 10% conversion rate; 1 extra goal (9/10 versus 8/10). Yet on the stat sheet it counts as 9 extra goals.

The powerplay isn't as stark, but it's the same concept. People have advocated for replacing Kessel with Jake or Schultz on the powerplay. So if that happened and he were off PP1, he'd go from a "90 point player" to a "50-60 point player." Jake, conversely would become a 90 point player and we'd say "wow what a progression!" But it's the same player. They just didn't have the opportunity they had before.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

Won 2 cups by bringing in Kessel...but might be time to move on and get a return that puts us over the top again. Its all about Crosby/Malkin ...you find ways to compliment them the most. Kessel seems like an NHL coach where there is a shelf life. If we dont make it or go far these playoffs...its time to move on(but has to be a great trade making this team better). Especially now that Guentzel has established himself as a top tier winger for us.

 

[UnderratedBrooks44]

Sure. But if those are your best offensive players, their ES numbers ought to confirm it anyway. From a numbers standpoint the powerplay and its associated stats is the numerical reward that those players get to experience for being so good offensively at ES.

It's like when people compare goal production in soccer between a player who is the primary Penalty Kick-taker and a player who isn't. It's completely unfair because only one player got that opportunity. Let's say player A (the PK taker) has 15 goals in open play and goes 9/10 (90%) in PKs. Player B (who doesn't take PKs) has 18 goals in open play and based on other examples would be estimated to go 80% in PKs. So the actual marginal value that the PK-taker has over the non-PK-taker is a 10% conversion rate; 1 extra goal (9/10 versus 8/10). Yet on the stat sheet it counts as 9 extra goals.

The powerplay isn't as stark, but it's the same concept. People have advocated for replacing Kessel with Jake or Schultz on the powerplay. So if that happened and he were off PP1, he'd go from a "90 point player" to a "50-60 point player." Jake, conversely would become a 90 point player and we'd say "wow what a progression!" But it's the same player. They just didn't have the opportunity they had before.

Are you sure about the bolded? This hypothetical doesn't work anyways because Kessel is utilized there as a right-hander, which is bit of a point for what I'm arguing by the way. Let's put Jake where Malkin plays though since they are both left-handed. All things being equal other than their talent and skill sets, are you still flip-flopping their totals in a given year? FYI I understand Geno has had a rough year 5-on-5 but I think you know what I'm getting at. Other honest questions include: How does this affect zone entries? Is the power play as good in general? Is the team as well or better off if they make this change? You can't make one-timers to Jake a big part of your PP's repertoire like you would with Geno, nor is Jake even half the passer that Malkin is, so I don't see how the logic holds.

This is to say nothing of the fact that the conversation was changed from Rust on the power play to now Jake on the power play.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Kessel, even on his best days i.e when he's good with the puck and brings an effort away from the puck time to time, needs to play opposite a speedy forchecker, not to mention when he's on his wrost days.
Similiar to Hornqvist having a skilfull winger oposite as a must.

What I would like to see for the Pens in the future is more wingers with a complete game, a la Guentzel. Too many complications with guys like Phil and Horny in top 6.
When they traded Hagelin for Pearson, I was hoping he could bring that well-rounded game, but he sucked.

Hey, I wish we had 8 wingers like Guentzel haha. But Kessel and Horny are great at what they do, despite their limitations.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Are you sure about the bolded? This hypothetical doesn't work anyways because Kessel is utilized there as a right-hander, which is bit of a point for what I'm arguing by the way. Let's put Jake where Malkin plays though since they are both left-handed. All things being equal other than their talent and skill sets, are you still flip-flopping their totals in a given year? FYI I understand Geno has had a rough year 5-on-5 but I think you know what I'm getting at. Other honest questions include: How does this affect zone entries? Is the power play as good in general? Is the team as well or better off if they make this change? You can't make one-timers to Jake a big part of your PP's repertoire like you would with Geno, nor is Jake even half the passer that Malkin is, so I don't see how the logic holds.

This is to say nothing of the fact that the conversation was changed from Rust on the power play to now Jake on the power play.

1) Nice gotcha attempt. The conversation is about who is the more valuable player. The 2-way forward or the 1-way more talented forward who causes a lot of headaches for us at 5-on-5 and gets a lot of points on the powerplay. Since a fair amount of the latter's value comes from the powerplay, it's fair to consider alternatives to him there. Every player is available for those minutes. Meanwhile if you took Rust off the team and replaced with with a replacement-level ES player, we would suffer. The idea of value-over-replacement is universally recognized as the gold standard in sports with richer (better) analytics cultures than this one.

2) You can look at the Penguins historical numbers and league-rankings from '11-'12 (Sid and Geno return) through Kessel's arrival in '15-'16 and tell me if a powerplay with 87, 71 and 58 needed Kessel to function at a high level. While you're there, take a look at Toronto's ranking:

http://www.nhl.com/stats/team?aggre...meType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=ppPctg

3) Geno is better than Phil. By a lot. In both ends. Please, any of you fans who think/thought this was a "Big 3"...it's not and has never been. If the Penguins moved Geno to wing tomorrow morning (@KIRK don't hate me too hard, it's just a hypothetical) he would be a substantially better winger than Phil by tomorrow night. If anything, the 3rd is and has been Letang.

4) With that said, I think Jake actually does outscore even Geno if Jake were on PP1 this year and Geno were on PP2. But it's a down year for Geno.

 

[EliteGoaltending]

Hey, I wish we had 8 wingers like Guentzel haha. But Kessel and Horny are great at what they do, despite their limitations.

Hornqvist brings his element every game, yes, Kessel not so much. Both very good players, but I'd move on at least from one next offseason.
I'd be looking for a top 6 winger with a complete game. +Younger and speedy. Maybe a guy like Dzingel, haven't seen him play, but judging by the comments on here he fits that mold. But that's for a salary cap thread.

 

[RSPens]

1) Nice gotcha attempt. The conversation is about who is the more valuable player. The 2-way forward or the 1-way more talented forward who causes a lot of headaches for us at 5-on-5 and gets a lot of points on the powerplay. Since a fair amount of the latter's value comes from the powerplay, it's fair to consider alternatives to him there. Every player is available for those minutes. Meanwhile if you took Rust off the team and replaced with with a replacement-level ES player, we would suffer. The idea of value-over-replacement is universally recognized as the gold standard in sports with richer (better) analytics cultures than this one.

2) You can look at the Penguins historical numbers and league-rankings from '11-'12 (Sid and Geno return) through Kessel's arrival in '15-'16 and tell me if a powerplay with 87, 71 and 58 needed Kessel to function at a high level. While you're there, take a look at Toronto's ranking:

http://www.nhl.com/stats/team?aggre...meType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=ppPctg

3) Geno is better than Phil. By a lot. In both ends. Please, any of you fans who think/thought this was a "Big 3"...it's not and has never been. If the Penguins moved Geno to wing tomorrow morning (@KIRK don't hate me too hard, it's just a hypothetical) he would be a substantially better winger than Phil by tomorrow night. If anything, the 3rd is and has been Letang.

4) With that said, I think Jake actually does outscore even Geno if Jake were on PP1 this year and Geno were on PP2. But it's a down year for Geno.

What I find very interesting about this conversation is that no one has brought up the fact that the Pens have allowed the most short handed goals in the NHL and that a good portion of these goals are directly caused by Kessel. The other teams know that Kessel is the puck carrier on the PP. So they have been standing up to him on the blue line. Unfortunately this means that Kessel would either have to make a great move (which at times he can) or he has to dump it in (which he never seems to do). The interesting thing about the Pens PP is that it could be run through Crosby, Malkin, Letang, Kessel or Schultz, yet they always seem to default to Kessel unless Kessel is on PP2.

 

[UnderratedBrooks44]

1) Nice gotcha attempt. The conversation is about who is the more valuable player. The 2-way forward or the 1-way more talented forward who causes a lot of headaches for us at 5-on-5 and gets a lot of points on the powerplay. Since a fair amount of the latter's value comes from the powerplay, it's fair to consider alternatives to him there. Every player is available for those minutes. Meanwhile if you took Rust off the team and replaced with with a replacement-level ES player, we would suffer. The idea of value-over-replacement is universally recognized as the gold standard in sports with richer (better) analytics cultures than this one.

2) You can look at the Penguins historical numbers and league-rankings from '11-'12 (Sid and Geno return) through Kessel's arrival in '15-'16 and tell me if a powerplay with 87, 71 and 58 needed Kessel to function at a high level. While you're there, take a look at Toronto's ranking:

http://www.nhl.com/stats/team?aggre...meType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=ppPctg

3) Geno is better than Phil. By a lot. In both ends. Please, any of you fans who think/thought this was a "Big 3"...it's not and has never been. If the Penguins moved Geno to wing tomorrow morning (@KIRK don't hate me too hard, it's just a hypothetical) he would be a substantially better winger than Phil by tomorrow night. If anything, the 3rd is and has been Letang.

4) With that said, I think Jake actually does outscore even Geno if Jake were on PP1 this year and Geno were on PP2. But it's a down year for Geno.

This is all good information but this shouldn't nearly be this difficult, and we're both all over the road considering the original argument was Rust vs. Kessel. I don't see how that's an argument worth having. I think it's fairly clear who is more valuable, and the reasons are fairly simple: Players like Kessel are 10x harder to find than ones like Rust. It's just the way it is, and that is not to discount anything Rust provides. You need all kinds of different team traits to win, but it's much easier to find his overall skill set and talent level.

If you don't have Rust, you can make up for it in other ways in your roster. Not so with goal scoring. Rust on the PP does not equal Kessel or whomever on the PP in his place. If you want to argue that Kessel is more redundant or unnecessary than Rust, I think that's a valid opinion. I'm definitely glad we had Phil in all the situations he played in during those two Cup runs though, and to say the least, I'm not convinced the results would be the same if we hadn't.