Please put John Hynes out of our misery thread. Part III

[JimEIV]

Buttons comments make zero sense. You have no goaltending, your defense sucks but as soon as your two #1OA's mature you'll be ok? That is f***ing beyond stupid

 

[tr83]

Buttons comments make zero sense. You have no goaltending, your defense sucks but as soon as your two #1OA's mature you'll be ok? That is ****ing beyond stupid

Button: Edmonton is the model of franchise building

 

[NjDevsRR]

Button is great with prospect talk, everything else he is often way off on.

HYNES

IS

AN

ISSUE

 

[tr83]

Im glad that were limiting dangerous chances.

Is this guy watching the game? What does it take to realize that the cast is completely different but the result is the same. The team is what, 8-30 stretching back to last year

 

[Unknown Caller]

Im glad that were limiting dangerous chances.

Is this guy watching the game? What does it take to realize that the cast is completely different but the result is the same. The team is what, 8-30 stretching back to last year

It's in response to the guy who directly talked about the system creating high danger chances against and the team being "confused". My point is that the numbers specifically show that the Devils actually do a good job of limiting chances in high danger areas. Every team gives up some chances in high danger areas - there's another team on the ice doing everything they can to get there. But when your goalies can't stop the few high danger chances you do give up, you're screwed.

And yes, I'm at just about every home game, so I do watch the games. Go read Cordell's article today about the Devils getting hosed by bad goaltending and bad bounces despite outplaying their opponents over the last extended stretch. At least I have guys like Craig Button, Scott Stevens and Bryce Salvador who have all said that it's not on the coaching staff. But hey, the HF brigade knows more than these guys.

 

[Devils731]

It's in response to the guy who directly talked about the system creating high danger chances against and the team being "confused". My point is that the numbers specifically show that the Devils actually do a good job of limiting chances in high danger areas. Every team gives up some chances in high danger areas - there's another team on the ice doing everything they can to get there. But when your goalies can't stop the few high danger chances you do give up, you're screwed.

And yes, I'm at just about every home game, so I do watch the games. Go read Cordell's article today about the Devils getting hosed by bad goaltending and bad bounces despite outplaying their opponents over the last extended stretch. At least I have guys like Craig Button, Scott Stevens and Bryce Salvador who have all said that it's not on the coaching staff. But hey, the HF brigade knows more than these guys.

All high danger chances aren’t created equally. A stuff shot from in close is high danger but not that likely to go in. A cross slot pass to a wide open one timer is also high danger but is much more likely to go in.

The Devils give up an enormous number of cross ice passes to wide open players compared to what they create. This is due to players running around and not being sure what to cover in any instance.

The winger is responsible for the high slot, the half board, the point man, sometimes the corner, sometimes the other point man, and sometimes in front of the goalie.

Is it any wonder the team is scrambly and a mess when all 5 guys need to make the same exact reads with that many choices or the structure falls apart?

 

[NJDevs26]

With all due respect to the media and talking heads (very few of whom will criticize coaches anyway) they really don't watch this team every day and are probably going by the stats that say we don't allow x number of HD chances.

 

[Unknown Caller]

All high danger chances aren’t created equally. A stuff shot from in close is high danger but not that likely to go in. A cross slot pass to a wide open one timer is also high danger but is much more likely to go in.

The Devils give up an enormous number of cross ice passes to wide open players compared to what they create. This is due to players running around and not being sure what to cover in any instance.

The winger is responsible for the high slot, the half board, the point man, sometimes the corner, sometimes the other point man, and sometimes in front of the goalie.

Is it any wonder the team is scrambly and a mess when all 5 guys need to make the same exact reads with that many choices or the structure falls apart?

So last night, the Devils first goal against was result of Vatanen turning the puck over in transition in the neutral zone (and Zajac losing the ensuing 1v1 battle for the puck) resulting in an odd man rush.

The second goal against was a result of Butcher turning the puck over at his own blue line in transition resulting in an odd man rush.

The third goal was again scored off the rush, a result of Tennyson not denying zone entry and a bounce off of shin pads to the trailer who wasn’t picked up by back pressure.

Not a single goal against was a result of established defensive zone coverage or “confusion of responsibilities” or being hemmed in our own end.

 

[Devils731]

So last night, the Devils first goal against was result of Vatanen turning the puck over in transition in the neutral zone (and Zajac losing the ensuing 1v1 battle for the puck) resulting in an odd man rush.

The second goal against was a result of Butcher turning the puck over at his own blue line in transition resulting in an odd man rush.

The third goal was again scored off the rush, a result of Tennyson not denying zone entry and a bounce off of shin pads to the trailer who wasn’t picked up by back pressure.

Not a single goal against was a result of established defensive zone coverage or confusion of responsibilities.

Is this a 1 game issue over season plus issue?

We can talk about the breakout not giving the defenders any options and them being left to turn it over or attempt a high risk play. I also pin that on the system as the Devils push too far and too fast up the ice leaving the defender unsupported or supported only by a winger standing still. They actually improved on this when Fitzgerald came on with both center and winger not flying the zone together but it still isn’t giving the defender many options.

There were plenty of times the Devils defenders over committed at one point on the ice and gave up good chances during the cycle. Philly not burying those ones doesn’t mean they didn’t happen.

it’s easy for other teams to cycle on the Devils and the devils eventually lose shape due the puck moving around the outside, leading to a dagger shot from the slot or a wide open lane point shot with screens and tips in the way.

 

[jkrdevil]

Ok they limit high danger chances, but this still give up a ton of other chances relative to what they create at the other end. When you have poor goaltending low danger chances quickly become higher danger chances.

They need to be playing at the other end of the rink and they aren’t. From an analytical point of view, given the make up of the team cf% is more important the high/low danger chances.

They are trying to play more of a rush style attack, which generates high quality scoring chances, but gives the other team zone time. They need to be playing a more cycle hold the puck in the offensive zone.

 

[Unknown Caller]

Ok they limit high danger chances, but this still give up a ton of other chances relative to what they create at the other end. When you have poor goaltending low danger chances quickly become higher danger chances.

They need to be playing at the other end of the rink and they aren’t. From an analytical point of view, given the make up of the team cf% is more important the high/low danger chances.

They are trying to play more of a rush style attack, which generates high quality scoring chances, but gives the other team zone time. They need to be playing a more cycle hold the puck in the offensive zone.

I agree with this, and I've said it's one of my issues with Hynes. Their offense is too reliant on the rush and there's zero establishment of a cycle or zone time. It results in a very transition-oriented game that makes this team a lot more susceptible to turnovers and mistakes coming out of our own end, which is what caused all 3 goals last night.

Unfortunately, Shero's organizational philosophy is to play a rush-based system that is supposed to stress speed and skill and thrive in transition. They've drafted based on this system and acquired players to fit the mold in which they want to play. Even in the scenario that they fired Hynes, they aren't going to go away from it.

 

[Unknown Caller]

Is this a 1 game issue over season plus issue?

We can talk about the breakout not giving the defenders any options and them being left to turn it over or attempt a high risk play. I also pin that on the system as the Devils push too far and too fast up the ice leaving the defender unsupported or supported only by a winger standing still. They actually improved on this when Fitzgerald came on with both center and winger not flying the zone together but it still isn’t giving the defender many options.

There were plenty of times the Devils defenders over committed at one point on the ice and gave up good chances during the cycle. Philly not burying those ones doesn’t mean they didn’t happen.

it’s easy for other teams to cycle on the Devils and the devils eventually lose shape due the puck moving around the outside, leading to a dagger shot from the slot or a wide open lane point shot with screens and tips in the way.

Also agree that the breakout is an issue. They're trying to force stretch passes that are relatively low percentage and can easily be picked off and cause odd man rushes against. Our defensemen have a very difficult time making tape to tape passes, and this is what causes us to get hemmed in our own end for extended periods.

I would much rather see the center and strong side wing curl down low to provide support and higher percentage plays, but this isn't what Shero wants to do. They want to use their speed and skill to stretch the ice and create odd man rushes in our favor. It's a high risk system, and when your team isn't more talented than the majority of the league, it isn't going to work as well.

 

[BahlDeep]

This analytical era of hockey is certainly becoming a travesty. People that don't watch games are quickly drawing their own conclusions solely based on numbers.

News flash: hockey is not baseball

 

[Triumph]

Im glad that were limiting dangerous chances.

Is this guy watching the game? What does it take to realize that the cast is completely different but the result is the same. The team is what, 8-30 stretching back to last year

They are limiting dangerous chances. It's pretty easy to see - last night's game was boring AF. It was boring because the Devils checked tightly and stayed on their men. The Flyers didn't generate a lot but Blackwood let in a fluke goal and 2 low-ish percentage shots besides. Every team gives up scoring chances - the goaltender has to stop some of them.

 

[Call Me Al]

goaltending wasn’t an issue last night. the team doesn’t have the confidence to close out games, and they basically have no ability to carry the momentum after scoring a goal

 

[Camille the Eel]

Ok they limit high danger chances, but this still give up a ton of other chances relative to what they create at the other end. When you have poor goaltending low danger chances quickly become higher danger chances.

They need to be playing at the other end of the rink and they aren’t. From an analytical point of view, given the make up of the team cf% is more important the high/low danger chances.

They are trying to play more of a rush style attack, which generates high quality scoring chances, but gives the other team zone time. They need to be playing a more cycle hold the puck in the offensive zone.

We do not forecheck and we do not set up and run an offense from the corners and behind the goal. You can count the seconds in a game we do either.

 

[Call Me Al]

part of that is putting the 4th line out afterward to basically guarantee no more offensive threats are going to take place in the shift after scoring

 

[Camille the Eel]

My other big Hynes issue is the handling of Bratt. He’s as creative as Hughes right now, can gain the zone with the puck on his stick, he should be seeing power play and shootout time and generally we should be enabling and riding his talent more. Got to find a way to do that.

 

[Eggtimer]

At the very least demote him to assistant coach or some other role like player development .
Let his inept assistants go , keep him on at some capacity so it doesn’t look as bad firing a guy you just extended a contract to .
The only thing keeping him from being fired right now is that there are no real replacements out there . Hopefully Boudreau gets canned and we get him for the short term

 

[Eggtimer]

goaltending wasn’t an issue last night. the team doesn’t have the confidence to close out games, and they basically have no ability to carry the momentum after scoring a goal

The 3rd goal was a softie

 

[Triumph]

goaltending wasn’t an issue last night. the team doesn’t have the confidence to close out games, and they basically have no ability to carry the momentum after scoring a goal

That 3rd goal was a low percentage shot. Blackwood had the opportunity to challenge the shooter. I wouldn't characterize it as a soft goal but it shouldn't go in very often.

 

[Unknown Caller]

This analytical era of hockey is certainly becoming a travesty. People that don't watch games are quickly drawing their own conclusions solely based on numbers.

News flash: hockey is not baseball

It's a combination of having the numbers, not only watching the game, but having a real understanding of what you're watching, and using the numbers to either confirm what you see or to challenge your thinking when the numbers do not align with what your eyes tell you. Just attacking analytics as your way of discrediting someone's argument is not productive or fair to the argument being made.

I don't see the Devils giving up a much higher number of high danger chances than other teams around the league and the numbers confirmed that for me. What I do see is a team that can't get a save whenever a high danger chance against is created. And the numbers do confirm that.

When your goalie can't stop a grade A chance against for his life, it makes it seem like we're giving up more opportunities than we really are. News flash: every team in the league gives up high danger chances against. It's the entire purpose of the other team's offense. We just don't give up that many in proportion to the rest of the league. And for the record, I watch every single game.

 

[BahlDeep]

It would be more interesting to know what is considered HD chances.

 

[BenedictGomez]

It would be more interesting to know what is considered HD chances.

HDSC is another "advanced" stat that IMO has not been shown to have a practical utilitarian value.

Scoring Chances' indicate shots attempts that are taken from areas of the ice where goals are more likely to be scored. Attempts made from the attacking team's neutral or defensive zones are excluded.
Inside the zone, a shot is assigned a value of 1,2 or 3, depending on where it was from. A rebound shot (defined as any attempt made within 3 seconds of another blocked, missed or saved attempt without a stoppage in play in between) adds a point to this value. A blocked shot decreases the value by 1. 'Scoring Chances' are any shot attempts with a final value of 2 or higher. 'High-Danger Scoring Chances' are any shot attempt with a final value of 3 or higher.

It's not that I think it's completely illogical, there is some sense to it, but I believe it's another instance of a stat for which a claim is made that it "solves" for something that quite frankly I am not convinced is accurate in "real life".

 

[sawchuk1971]

i've noticed hes an assistant with the devils..

however i've discovered a problem...some games he is on the bench..

while in other games hes not...

really don't understand the move....