Please Grade Dubas on today's Free Agent Pickups.

[TheGreatOne11]

You know what's funny, guys? One of Kyle's recently signed free agents will almost certainly meet or exceed the highest season point total of Zach Hyman (41).

My money is on Bunting to have a great year, and I'm really hoping Ritchie comes in with a fire in his belly, be a big strong power forward for the boys, they both play themselves up the lineup.

 

[nuck]

Agreed, Kase is about a half a point a game player, if he can stay healthy he has a good chance to be around 40 points, Ritchie would have to have an amazing start to come near 40.

So maybe a little less than almost certainly. I would say Kase will almost certainly not play 40 games for them. My only hope would be that he was not properly rested following his last concussion and this will be some kind of a reset.

Ritchie scored at a 37 point pace last season and a 42 point pace in 18-19 so he is already right there. His peak TOI was 15:22 with the Bruins last year and unless they add another scoring winger he is probably guaranteed to exceed that as a Leaf. As long as he doesn't get sucked down the pp vortex and plays a full year I pick him to score around 45 points.

 

[stickty111]

Interesting stuff here. In terms of spending less but improving, we have been the 2nd best.

 

[zeke]

Interesting stuff here. In terms of spending less but improving, we have been the 2nd best.

Note that the 1st best Canucks aren't really best - they artificially lowered their caphit using buyouts which just shuffles a bunch of dead capspace to future years.

 

[Eb]

Ranking the Leafs offseason signings... the ranking was determined by the player's value, contract signed, and fit/need for the team

1. Kampf - underrated signing, at a very good cost. Love how this will free up Tavares and Spezza for more o-zone starts
2. Mrazek - seeing what some goalies went for (Graubner, Ullmark, Brossoit etc.) I think this is a very fair deal and a great compliment to Campbell.
3. Bunting - love this signing, obviously. Amazing cost and hopefully he keeps a bit of his scoring prowess that we saw in limited time in the desert.
4. Kase - this can easily be #1 if he remains healthy. Just an amazing bet
5. Ritchie - I like this signing, just don't think I'm as high on it as I do others. He does bring a different element to the team which is nice
6. Ho-sang PTO - Jfresh wrote an article about him not to long ago. Worth a shot
7. Gabriel, Amadio, Menell etc. - depth. I like the trade/signing for Menell. Seemed to be undervalued in Minny, worth a shot.

 

[Racer88]

I guess the relevant thing about this chart is the starting point and finishing point of each team. Apparently it shows the Leafs as the second best improvement but really doesn’t address where the Leafs are in the overall ranking of the league. Hopefully it’s enough so they aren’t such a mess again this year

 

[Bomber0104]

Interesting stuff here. In terms of spending less but improving, we have been the 2nd best.

So what are you telling us all with this?

Are we once again the Off-Season Champions?!

 

[ShaneFalco]

So what are you telling us all with this?

Are we once again the Off-Season Champions?!

Every year!

 

[The Podium]

So what are you telling us all with this?

Are we once again the Off-Season Champions?!

He’s telling you the Leafs improved on a budget

 

[Gary Nylund]

Interesting stuff here. In terms of spending less but improving, we have been the 2nd best.

Not sure how relevant the spending less is, bottom line is that team is what it is and we have no cap space left.

As for improvement, I'm skeptical. I like Mrazek but it's far from clear what he'll bring and goalies are voodoo anyway. I do think he'll be good for us but Campbell was great for us and certainly wasn't the reason we lost to MTL so hard to see how Mrazek will put us over that seemingly insurmountable hump that the 1st round seems to be for us.

Other than that, we lost Bogo who was a role player to be sure but still, he was rock solid for us. Then there was Hyman who has been excellent for us so who replaces these guys? A handful of nobodys, all making less than the average NHL salary and most making less than half the average NHL salary for the simple reason that there isn't a single organization in the NHL that thinks they're worth more. Hard to see how a bunch of below average spare parts are going to propel this team to the success that has eluded us for so long.

Note that the 1st best Canucks aren't really best - they artificially lowered their caphit using buyouts which just shuffles a bunch of dead capspace to future years.

So the model is flawed, like all models. I'm shocked.

He’s telling you the Leafs improved on a budget

The model rates the Leafs improvement as a 1 on a scale of 1-5. It also doesn't say what that number even means so it's hard to be impressed.

 

[ShaneFalco]

/expected improvement
/expected goals

 

[egd27]

Interesting stuff here. In terms of spending less but improving, we have been the 2nd best.

How was it determined that the Leafs have spent approx. $6M less, when Cap Friendly indicates there is zero cap space?

 

[Eb]

So the model is flawed, like all models. I'm shocked.

That's not even a model, it is simple math.

The X-axis is Dom's model.

 

[Sypher04]

Not sure how relevant the spending less is, bottom line is that team is what it is and we have no cap space left.

As for improvement, I'm skeptical. I like Mrazek but it's far from clear what he'll bring and goalies are voodoo anyway. I do think he'll be good for us but Campbell was great for us and certainly wasn't the reason we lost to MTL so hard to see how Mrazek will put us over that seemingly insurmountable hump that the 1st round seems to be for us.

Other than that, we lost Bogo who was a role player to be sure but still, he was rock solid for us. Then there was Hyman who has been excellent for us so who replaces these guys? A handful of nobodys, all making less than the average NHL salary and most making less than half the average NHL salary for the simple reason that there isn't a single organization in the NHL that thinks they're worth more. Hard to see how a bunch of below average spare parts are going to propel this team to the success that has eluded us for so long.



So the model is flawed, like all models. I'm shocked.



The model rates the Leafs improvement as a 1 on a scale of 1-5. It also doesn't say what that number even means so it's hard to be impressed.

As it always has been, the answer is they won't. We've replaced role players with role players and have neither improved or regressed in my estimation. This team will only be propelled by its core. Depth is great and I think we have a good amount if things work out as we can likely expect, but this team goes only as far as the core take us. If they no show, all the depth in the world won't save us

 

[Gary Nylund]

That's not even a model, it is simple math.

The X-axis is Dom's model.

The X-axis is what Zeke quoted and commented on.

 

[Eb]

The X-axis is what Zeke quoted and commented on.

The comment you quoted shows him commenting on their salary added, i.e. Y-axis?

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Interesting stuff here. In terms of spending less but improving, we have been the 2nd best.

This whole chart is laughable, cmon. The leafs are way worse than they were last year, lost Hyman, bogosian, andersson, Galchenyuk, Thornton. Their biggest issue is keeping the puck out of their net and now they are going with two mediocre goalies.

 

[mydnyte]

If I was a betting man would it be safe to say our Free agent season next year will be dominated by signings from 2015 draft year? Is that the math Dubie puts behind his UFA list? Current year - 7 years = can't miss ?... LOL

i personally consider a players 'peak' 26-28 years of age, except for 'star' players, so, getting a guy at 25 would be just before breakout, but, these are all short term deals, so, if they do breakout, all they become is decent trade chips, or too expensive to resign.
to gamble and win, you need to sign the 25 year old, on the verge of a breakout to a long term deal on the cheap.
i.e. if Bunting was signed for 5+ years at his cap hit, then he'd be a steal if he improved, while still manageable if he doesnt.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The comment you quoted shows him commenting on their salary added, i.e. Y-axis?

Sorry, I'm confused. X axis, Y axis, all part of the same model no? Forgive me if I've missed something, hardly any sleep last night, trying to get some work done too, basically running on fumes today.

 

[Eb]

Sorry, I'm confused. X axis, Y axis, all part of the same model no? Forgive me if I've missed something, hardly any sleep last night, trying to get some work done too, basically running on fumes today.

It's a simple plot graph. The X-Axis is using Dom's model. The Y-Axis is just simple math computing the amount of salary added.
You can have issue with if Vancouver actually got better or not this season (X-axis), but all Zeke was commenting on was the caveat of Vancouver "shedding" salary (Y-axis) is a bit of a mirage because they will feel it in future years.

 

[Gary Nylund]

This whole chart is laughable, cmon. The leafs are way worse than they were last year, lost Hyman, bogosian, andersson, Galchenyuk, Thornton. Their biggest issue is keeping the puck out of their net and now they are going with two mediocre goalies.

Yup, would love to see the formula behind this chart. What some people don't realize is that the main purpose of these charts is to provide entertainment and sell subscriptions, that's it. Nobody on earth can give you an accurate formula to measure this stuff so how accurate you think it is depends 100% on how much faith you have in the guy making the chart.

 

[Racer88]

He’s telling you the Leafs improved on a budget

A budget forced on them by Dubas

 

[Gary Nylund]

It's a simple plot graph. The X-Axis is using Dom's model. The Y-Axis is just simple math computing the amount of salary added.
You can have issue with if Vancouver actually got better or not this season (X-axis), but all Zeke was commenting on was the caveat of Vancouver "shedding" salary (Y-axis) is a bit of a mirage because they will feel it in future years.

Sure I get that, it's all still part of the model and basically he's saying why he thinks it's flawed. They're using math but not considering other relevant context like future years.

 

[Eb]

Sure I get that, it's all still part of the model and basically he's saying why he thinks it's flawed. They're using math but not considering other relevant context like future years.

I don't think you do, because it's not a model. The salary added is just a simple calculation and has nothing to do with his Wins Added model.

This doesn't make his model flawed. I'm glad you can think critically beyond just this one season, but all this model was looking at was each team's offseason moves and how that improves their team next season.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I don't think you do, because it's not a model. The salary added is just a simple calculation and has nothing to do with his Wins Added model.

This doesn't make his model flawed. I'm glad you can think critically beyond just this one season, but all this model was looking at was each team's offseason moves and how that improves their team next season.

Maybe it's a matter of terminology. I was looking at the picture, call it chart, model or whatever else. So Dom calculated the improvement, that's all that seems relevant to me anyway. But isn't Dom also the guy who decided to include salary to the chart (which seems to be flawed thinking)? If so, then that's on him.

Whatever the case, I think we agree that salary is irrelevant here. If a team spent less efficiently that doesn't help us if they had more cap space to spend so who cares. Bottom line is that we're9th in improvement (if you believe the model is accurate) and nobody seems to know what a score of 1 on a scale of 1-5 means so it's all just noise anyway IMHO.