Playoff Watch 2021

[WATTAGE4451]

Minnesota is the only team vegas has a losing record vs this year.

If minny doesn't win the division, hopefully the avs do cuz if we can get past the avs, we match up well vs the Wild who seemingly matchup well vs vegas.

It'd be nice to have them eliminate vegas.

 

[AjaxManifesto]

Looking at the standings, if the Blues clinch, they might be the playoff team with the fewest points.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I wasn’t trying to insinuate Minnesota had a good chance of winning the division, more just shocked that they have a path at all. League-wide we’ve heard how good Colorado and Vegas are all year. Various pundits have either team as their Cup favorite. Yet here a few games from the end, Minnesota could conceivably sneak ahead of both of them. No one has the Wild as their pick.

At the beginning of the season, I hoped the Blues would win the division mainly so Vegas and Colorado could face each other. It’s shocking that there might be another way to let that happen.

The entire playoffs have few interesting races to speak of. Dallas and Nashville are the only teams kind of fighting for a spot, and the Preds are opening a gap. The Canadian race only looks like it still exists because Vancouver still has so many potential points with so many games left, but even they will be mathematically eliminated soon.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Playoff avatar idea:

Things We Do In Shadows

There is a movie and a 2 season TV series. It’s hilarious stuff. The opening song comes to mind, “You’re dead. You’re dead. You’re dead.” Also, “Stay dead. Stay dead. Stay dead.”

We could play up the psychic vampire facet. I could see Mark Proksch (Colin Robinson) be involved in the images, maybe alternating with a Blues player. Berube is the Ancient One.

 

[Spear]

Looking at the standings, if the Blues clinch, they might be the playoff team with the fewest points.

So, road-ice advantage throughout the playoffs!

 

[TheDizee]

I want the Refalanche in round 1

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

I want the Refalanche in round 1

Same but only if the refs know how to swallow their whistles. Their PP destroys us.

 

[Xerloris]

So, road-ice advantage throughout the playoffs!

Something seems familiar about that

 

[MissouriMook]

Looking at the standings, if the Blues clinch, they might be the playoff team with the fewest points.

If that holds up, and if they seed the playoff teams the same as they usually do for the draft, that means we'll either be picking at 17 or in the Final 4.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

So, road-ice advantage throughout the playoffs!

Worked for us in 2019, and we historically seem to do better when we're the underdog, so ...

 

[Ted Hoffman]

No clinching a playoff spot tonight. We try it again Friday night against Vegas. Scenarios all-around are a little easier to lay out, though.

Blues clinch with: any win + any Kings loss, or an OTL + a Kings regulation loss. A tie on points leaves us out, as the Kings hold the 1st tiebreak and if they pull even on points it means we didn't get another win to pull even there.

Arizona: eliminated with any loss or any Blues win or OTL.

Looking at the top of the division: Minnesota is eliminated from winning the division with a Vegas win + a Wild regulation loss, or 2 Vegas wins. Laying out all the permutations for 1st-3rd is still messy because of how many games are left for everyone, but suffice it to say that Minnesota is probably going to end up 3rd and we're watching Vegas/Colorado battle it out for 1st/2nd with Colorado's loss last night Vegas looks to be in decent position to finish 1st and while Colorado has the inside track for 2nd, there's still room for the Wild to catch them.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Simple now. It’s the Blues and the Kings, magic number is 3 points.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

They clearly just wanted to clinch on the anniversary of Maroon’s game 7 goal.

 

[AjaxManifesto]

No clinching a playoff spot tonight. We try it again Friday night against Vegas. Scenarios all-around are a little easier to lay out, though.

Blues clinch with: any win + any Kings loss, or an OTL + a Kings regulation loss. [Does not consider the result of LAK/ARI, currently in progress.] A tie on points leaves us out, as the Kings hold the 1st tiebreak and if they pull even on points it means we didn't get another win to pull even there.

Arizona: eliminated with any loss or any Blues win or OTL.

Looking at the top of the division: Minnesota is eliminated from winning the division with a Vegas win + a Wild regulation loss, or 2 Vegas wins. Laying out all the permutations for 1st-3rd is still messy because of how many games are left for everyone, but suffice it to say that Minnesota is probably going to end up 3rd and we're watching Vegas/Colorado battle it out for 1st/2nd.

It would be so much easier if the team got their shit together tonight and won in regulation. The team worries me.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

It would be so much easier if the team got their shit together tonight and won in regulation. The team worries me.

We’re 5-0-2 in our last 7 and historically play down to lesser opponents. It’ll be just fine.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

It would be so much easier if the team got their shit together tonight and won in regulation. The team worries me.

We’re 5-0-2 in our last 7 and historically play down to lesser opponents. It’ll be just fine.

It'll be fine as long as we can play up to better opponents and be better than them. It'll be fine as long as 5-0-2 in the last 7 is really something we can rely on as a basis for what to expect. Ajax is right, though - this team is floating on do the least amount possible to win way too many times. Great if we're really just saving it up for the playoffs, but then it relies on "flipping the switch" when needed.

There's a lot of hope pinned on "we'll get to the postseason, everything will be gravy, they know what to do then, it'll be fine, we'll start cruising." Maybe that will happen, but given how inconsistent this team has been all season there's all kinds of reasons to think it won't.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Geez Ted, I haven’t seen one person talking like that, cruising etc. The Blues will face a Cup favorite in the first round.

I just thought Anaheim brought their best in honor of Backes, and the Blues were still down two defensive starters plus Tarasenko. They could have won. Losing in a shootout doesn’t represent a failure to show up.

I’ll make any bet of any kind with someone who believes the Kings will get the 4th spot. The race is over except for mathematic technicality. The Blues also can’t improve their seed. I think it’s predictable that a team won’t be at its peak sharpness under those circumstances. No team I’ve watched ever has been. I remember the Kings fighting for the eventual 8th seed in a year they won the Cup and coming out and laying an absolute stinker against a team they were fighting with in the standings. I thought it was a sign they were done. Obviously it wasn’t. The Blies game wasn’t even a stinker, just a close loss.

 

[Frenzy31]

I find it very interesting that teams the Blues have the biggest issues with are teams that lack a lot of structure. The Yotes gave us fits with their very fast, free flowing players, and the Ducks also play a bit of a free flowing game. I think it is difficult for the Blues to get really going in these games with a lot of cycle.

I also think there are too many neutral zone turnovers and we are really missing production from Schwartz in particular. He just doesn't seem himself - getting in and creating a lot of turnovers. We really should have put the game away in the 1st period. But then our propensity to turn the switch to OFF in the second creates a lot problems.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Two of the best puck carriers were out. It shows in the neutral zone play. Accounts are that guys are soon to return. I’d wager the neutral zone play magically improves.

 

[DeuceNine]

I find it very interesting that teams the Blues have the biggest issues with are teams that lack a lot of structure. The Yotes gave us fits with their very fast, free flowing players, and the Ducks also play a bit of a free flowing game. I think it is difficult for the Blues to get really going in these games with a lot of cycle.

I also think there are too many neutral zone turnovers and we are really missing production from Schwartz in particular. He just doesn't seem himself - getting in and creating a lot of turnovers. We really should have put the game away in the 1st period. But then our propensity to turn the switch to OFF in the second creates a lot problems.

This is a nice way of saying we play down to bad teams.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Geez Ted, I haven’t seen one person talking like that, cruising etc. The Blues will face a Cup favorite in the first round.

Really, you haven't read comments around here for the last 4 months? Because there are countless comments about Vegas not being shit, being overrated, the win in the last game shows we can take them. About Colorado not being shit, they're overrated, we match up great with them, they'll blow up in the playoffs. About Minnesota not being shit, we match up great with them, they'll blow up in the playoffs.

If you really need links to refresh your memory on that, I'll spend part of a day digging them out.

You can cite we were down 2 guys and so on as a reason we couldn't win. Great teams find a way to overcome that and still win. We seem to need to have everything just perfect to win, and we're ripe for excuses otherwise. Maybe I expect better, especially from a team that figured out what it takes to win a Cup just 2 years ago and has more than a few of those guys still around. YMMV.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Really, you haven't read comments around here for the last 4 months? Because there are countless comments about Vegas not being shit, being overrated, the win in the last game shows we can take them. About Colorado not being shit, they're overrated, we match up great with them, they'll blow up in the playoffs. About Minnesota not being shit, we match up great with them, they'll blow up in the playoffs.

If you really need links to refresh your memory on that, I'll spend part of a day digging them out.

You can cite we were down 2 guys and so on as a reason we couldn't win. Great teams find a way to overcome that and still win. We seem to need to have everything just perfect to win, and we're ripe for excuses otherwise. Maybe I expect better, especially from a team that figured out what it takes to win a Cup just 2 years ago and has more than a few of those guys still around. YMMV.

Maybe I have someone on ignore that you’re citing. I guess if you cherry pick drunk posts or one or two nutty posters you can do your search. What’s the point of that? I’d assume you are routinely writing to the rational element here rather than specifically to the fringes. That sounds like madness.

 

[Brian39]

You can cite we were down 2 guys and so on as a reason we couldn't win. Great teams find a way to overcome that and still win. We seem to need to have everything just perfect to win, and we're ripe for excuses otherwise. Maybe I expect better, especially from a team that figured out what it takes to win a Cup just 2 years ago and has more than a few of those guys still around. YMMV.

We haven't lost a game in regulation over our last 7 games. That is currently the longest points streak in the division. I don't think a shootout loss following a 5-0-1 stretch is any reason to start sounding the "great teams find a way to overcome it" alarms. We're 8-4-2 in the last month and before that stretch all we could talk about was how we had the hardest remaining strength of schedule in the league. That's a 105 point pace over an 82 game sample size. 11 of those 14 games came against playoff teams. I don't think it is at all accurate to say that we needed everything to go just perfect to accomplish that record through that stretch.

We came back from down 2-0 early against the Avs after we took 2 penalties in the first minute of a game. The next night we absolutely dominated them in a 4-1 victory. We ran the Wild out of our building with a 9-1 victory. We beat the Wild in regulation in a game we trailed 3-1 going into the 3rd. We beat the Wild in OT after coughing up a 2 goal lead. In the last month we have convincingly beaten good teams, come from behind against good teams, relied on our goalie to steal a game AND held on to win games where we coughed up a lead. We absolutely have been winning games where things don't go perfect and have been doing it against good teams.

I don't know what to tell you if you are concerned about the way we have been winning over the last month. I think you need a major expectation adjustment if you think that anything about our last month indicates that we need everything to go perfect in order to win games.

Edit: for the sake of demonstrating what good teams do vs other good teams:

Vegas' record vs playoff teams: 11-8-2

Colorado's record vs playoff teams: 13-8-2

Minnesota's record vs playoff teams: 10-8-4

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Maybe I have someone on ignore that you’re citing. I guess if you cherry pick drunk posts or one or two nutty posters you can do your search. What’s the point of that? I’d assume you are routinely writing to the rational element here rather than specifically to the fringes. That sounds like madness.

It started back in Game 1 of this season. Hell, I think we even had a thread on Colorado's defense specifically where people wanted to argue our defense was better than theirs. That was laughable then, it's more laughable now.

This is a slightly above-average team. It's not a serious Cup contender. If we didn't have a Cup to our name, we'd all say this is a team that will go out in the 1st round in about 6 games, if that. It has to play as more than the sum of its pieces to be as good as Vegas and Colorado, and it has to do that night in and night out. Sorry, I don't see any proof we've got that in us even with 5-0-2 in the last 7. Can it prove me wrong? Sure, I'll leave that door open. Will it? I'll bet it won't.

Who knows, maybe we'll be like Dallas last year, who won most of 14 games by drifting through at least 40 minutes like it was waiting to finally pack its bags and leave Edmonton and playing really well for about 7-8 minutes. Again, I'm not betting on that as a viable playoff strategy. We might win the opening round series, get everyone excited, draw Minnesota in the 2nd round and people think it'll be a slam-dunk for us, and we get waxed in 5 and people will think the loss in 5 was the exception.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

We haven't lost a game in regulation over our last 7 games. That is currently the longest points streak in the division. I don't think a shootout loss following a 5-0-1 stretch is any reason to start sounding the "great teams find a way to overcome it" alarms. We're 8-4-2 in the last month and before that stretch all we could talk about was how we had the hardest remaining strength of schedule in the league. That's a 105 point pace over an 82 game sample size. 11 of those 14 games came against playoff teams. I don't think it is at all accurate to say that we needed everything to go just perfect to accomplish that record through that stretch.

That entire post should be framed and put in a museum as an example of "recency bias."

What our per-points pace over 82 games over the last month means shit for what this team really is. Great, we've played better in the last month than we expected. Awesome, we took 2 of 3 from Colorado and split Vegas. Colorado was missing Rantanen, Saad and Grubauer when we took those games. Vegas reeled off 10 straight after they lost to us. Remember, we lost on the 14th with Colorado reportedly feeling like complete shit after getting vaccinated. We then pissed away the game to Arizona 3 days later knowing it was critical to helping our playoff chances and we pissed it away after taking a 2-0 lead through 20 minutes. We then pissed away the Colorado game on the 22nd with us having had days to practice and purportedly refocus, and Colorado being shut down and then missing Rantanen and Grubauer and having to start Devan Dubnyk. But, I'm sure those losses don't count and we can ignore them because ... reasons.

We're 8-4-2 in the last month, so hurray us! Vegas is 13-3-0. Minnesota is 10-3-3. Colorado is 9-5-0 with 3 of those losses sans their 1C and 1G. I can't wait to hear how our 8-4-2 is more meaningful, more significant, because ... reasons. We're also 9-9-2 against playoff teams. It's the worst record record among the top-4 in the West. But hey, 8-4-2 in the last month, amirite?

My "complaint" has nothing to do with the way we win games. It has to do with the way people want to bend over backwards to excuse losses by constantly pointing to well, we were missing _____________ when somehow, other top teams will miss guys and they still figure out how to win in spite of it. It's how some want to pretend every win was significant, important, the be-all, end-all, no-bullshit game everyone should bank on. As regards the Anaheim game, it's how missing Tarasenko - who has 4 goals all year, 2 in the last month - and then Dunn and Krug - both who can produce offense but are noted defensive liabilities at times - are together such a critical loss we couldn't possibly overcome and it's a make-or-break thing to whether we can beat the worst team in the division.

I'm all for cheerleading for this team, being optimistic about its chances. But holy shit, let's stay grounded in reality in the process. Let's quit cherry-picking what's important and what's not depending on what team we're talking about, and let's quit pretending that the last X games [ignoring the ones that don't count because ... reasons] is the real, true sign of what this team is going to do, when we've got 51 games to date that show this team has no consistency other than inconsistency.