Playoff Watch 2021

[Stupendous Yappi]

Yotes also lose in OT

Points wash

That means our magic number is reduced by 2. Watching points isn’t as informative.

 

[CoMoBlues]

Edit - looks like Arizona is heading to OT, but I’m going to bed. Will update tomorrow.

Yotes also lose in OT

Points wash

So correct me if I’m wrong, the magic number is now 6.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

So correct me if I’m wrong, the magic number is now 6.

Yes

 

[TheDizee]

its pretty much over at this point unless we decide to totally collapse again

 

[execwrite1]

its pretty much over at this point unless we decide to totally collapse again

Who's the likely first-round opponent?

 

[TheDizee]

Who's the likely first-round opponent?

i think it will be the avs

 

[SwivelSchwartz]

Who's the likely first-round opponent?

Vegas currently, but the avs have an easier schedule. They play each other one of the last games and could very well decide it.

 

[Thallis]

Who's the likely first-round opponent?

Hard to say between Colorado and Vegas. Vegas is ahead by 2 points but has a harder schedule moving forward. They play each other on the 10th so that could ultimately decide it.

 

[Stealth JD]

Blues are in. I don't care what the magic number says; they're in. The teams behind them aren't running the table..

So the question now becomes: who do you want to see the Blues play in Rd. 1? Petro/Reaves and the Knights? Or Makar/MacKinnon & the Avs?

Vegas has scary good goaltending; and is probably the more sound defensive team; both matchups are quite frankly tall tasks. I think Colorado is a bit more exploitable defensively, and has their season hanging on the frayed thread of their goaltending. But unfortunately, I think the Knights hold onto the 1-seed; which is unfortunate if only because Minnesota seems to have the Knights number this year; as much as the Blues have the Wild's. Tough to look past either first round opponent though; so it really doesn't matter.

 

[BlueMed]

Blues are in. I don't care what the magic number says; they're in. The teams behind them aren't running the table..

So the question now becomes: who do you want to see the Blues play in Rd. 1? Petro/Reaves and the Knights? Or Makar/MacKinnon & the Avs?

Vegas has scary good goaltending; and is probably the more sound defensive team; both matchups are quite frankly tall tasks. I think Colorado is a bit more exploitable defensively, and has their season hanging on the frayed thread of their goaltending. But unfortunately, I think the Knights hold onto the 1-seed; which is unfortunate if only because Minnesota seems to have the Knights number this year; as much as the Blues have the Wild's. Tough to look past either first round opponent though; so it really doesn't matter.

Real contenders dont care who they play. Let's play anytime, any place.

 

[thedustman]

Avs have some work to do to get past vegas. After the ducks, these games against the knights could be a potential first round preview... but it’s an odd situation. If we hand vegas their asses, then we might be relegating them into the 2nd place position whereas if they hand us our asses, then we have to play a team who knows how to hand us our asses

 

[AjaxManifesto]

Avs have some work to do to get past vegas. After the ducks, these games against the knights could be a potential first round preview... but it’s an odd situation. If we hand vegas their asses, then we might be relegating them into the 2nd place position whereas if they hand us our asses, then we have to play a team who knows how to hand us our asses

Lots of ass handling....

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Real contenders dont care who they play. Let's play anytime, any place.

But we’re just fans?

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I strongly suspect if you got an honest answer from the Avs and Knights players, they’d rather face Minnesota.

I’d rather face Vegas, because I’d rather beat Vegas. I kind of like some of Colorado’s players. I can’t think of anyone I like on Vegas besides Fleury, and he won’t be playing in the post-season barring weirdness.

 

[Robb_K]

Real contenders don't care who they play. Let's play anytime, any place.

I agree. For The Blues to beat EITHER team, the same things have to happen - The Blues need to play all 60 minutes of every game, with a lot of energy on the forecheck and backcheck, and play an especially heavy game in their own zone, and skate hard on the puck moving it forward safely, until it's safe to make an outlet pass, and no random dumping the puck towards the Blueline, hoping it will get out. The Blues will need good goaltending, confidence that if they play their game, they will win, and making sure to get the puck not only past the Redline, but deep into the O-Zone, and aim for getting shots off. They'll need to be covering up for their teammates on defence(leave no gaps), and when they are pinching in in The O-Zone. They need to drive the net, have forwards setting up in front of the opposing net, and set screens and jump on rebounds, and move their position periodically while passes are being made, both on the power play and at even strength. They'll need to hit their opponents and punish them physically, often, when they have the puck, to keep them from making plays easily. IF The Blues do all these things, it won't matter whether they play The Avs or The Knights. They'll have to do all those things to beat either team.

 

[JoshFromMO]

I strongly suspect if you got an honest answer from the Avs and Knights players, they’d rather face Minnesota.

I’d rather face Vegas, because I’d rather beat Vegas. I kind of like some of Colorado’s players. I can’t think of anyone I like on Vegas besides Fleury, and he won’t be playing in the post-season barring weirdness.

Fun fact about Colorado is they have not won a game when trailing after 2 this season. Vegas seems to be a lot better about not giving up which always makes them a scary team

 

[BlueMed]

But we’re just fans?

If the players don't care, why should we?

 

[Blueston]

I wanna beat Vegas more than anybody. I don’t blame Vegas for signing Petro. Time will tell how that contract looks (although if they win Cup in next couple years they won’t care about out years). I dislike Stone for what he did to Bozo. He is too good of a player to need to pull that crap. Will root against him forever. Like I will never forgive Thornton for nearly ending Perron career.

 

[execwrite1]

Playoff formula -

1) Get Healthy
2) Special teams, special teams, special teams, special teams
3) Binnington stands on his head

 

[MissouriMook]

I strongly suspect if you got an honest answer from the Avs and Knights players, they’d rather face Minnesota.

I’d rather face Vegas, because I’d rather beat Vegas. I kind of like some of Colorado’s players. I can’t think of anyone I like on Vegas besides Fleury, and he won’t be playing in the post-season barring weirdness.

I don't really care who we face in Round 1, but I really hope Minnesota beats whoever finishes 2nd in the West, because I don't want to have to face both Vegas and Colorado. If they are re-seeding the semi finals based on regular season points, a trip to Round 3 would likely match us up against Tampa or Carolina. We're looking at a real Murderer's Row if we're going to go on a run.

 

[Stealth JD]

I don't really care who we face in Round 1, but I really hope Minnesota beats whoever finishes 2nd in the West, because I don't want to have to face both Vegas and Colorado. If they are re-seeding the semi finals based on regular season points, a trip to Round 3 would likely match us up against Tampa or Carolina. We're looking at a real Murderer's Row if we're going to go on a run.

That would shut up the questions of legitimacy of this core. One Cup win is good luck. Two Cup wins is a historically great club. A path through Vegas, Colorado, Tampa & Pittsburgh would be as impressive of a run as there's been; despite the shortened-season and diminished fans in attendance. It's also a statistical improbability that they advance through one round, let alone four. It would definitely make for interesting viewing though.

 

[HighNote]

I think I'd rather play the Knights. But either way, if we make it past the 1st round we'd be playing both anyways. I'd love to knock out either team.

 

[WATTAGE4451]

I think I'd rather play the Knights. But either way, if we make it past the 1st round we'd be playing both anyways. I'd love to knock out either team.

I'd rather play the avs.

Many times even cup teams with good goalies have had to squeeze some wins from their backups if their starter gets in a slump or gets injured, Pitts burgh did it with fleurr and Murray a few times and there's plenty of other examples as well.

Vegas has 2 great goalies. Avs pretty much just have to hope grubauer can carry the full load cuz dubnyk at this stage isn't doing much.(same thing applies to us though, unlike last year when allen stepped in and got some wins when binny struggled but we didn't stick with allen, I don't think husso is capable of providing any alternative so we have to pin all our hopes on binny staying sharp and healthy.)

 

[Brian39]

Fun fact about Colorado is they have not won a game when trailing after 2 this season. Vegas seems to be a lot better about not giving up which always makes them a scary team

Worth noting that they have only trailed after 2 periods eight times this year. I got bored and dug into the 8 games:

Opening night against us: Down 2-1 and ended up losing 4-1
1/24/21 vs Ducks: Down 2-0 after 2 and ended up losing 3-1 (the 3rd was an empty netter)
2/14/21 vs Vegas: Down 1-0 after 2 and that score was the final
2/22/21 vs Vegas: Down 3-0 after 2 and that score was the final
2/24/21 vs Minny: Down 3-1 after 2 and the final was 6-2 (last goal was an empty netter)
4/7/21 vs Minny: Down 5-3 after 2 and lost 8-3
4/26/21 vs us: Down 4-1 after 2 and that was the final score
4/28/21 vs Vegas: Down 3-2 after 2 and lost 5-2 (the 5th was an empty netter)

Overall, they are 10-2 in 1 goal games, and 5 of these 8 were 2+ goal deficits after 2. Small sample sizes and all that, but the takeaway for me is that you can play trap hockey to hold a lead against them with a 2 goal lead but need to push offense with a 1 goal lead.

The flipside of this stat is that they are a ludicrous 27-0-1 when leading after 2. They are 4-7-1 when trailing after 1. You can't come out slow against the Avs.

 

[Brian39]

I'd rather face the Avs for a few reasons:

1: Goaltending. Vegas has the best goaltending situation in the West. Fleury has been a no-doubt-top-5 goalie this season and has 5 trips to the Final under his belt. I'm higher on Grubauer than most around here, but Fleury has a distinct edge. And if things go sideways for Fleury, Lehner is probably the best 1B/backup plan in the league. He got them to the Conference Final last year and has been good in all 3 of his career playoff appearances. There is a very, very good argument to make that Vegas has two guys who are top 10 NHL netminders. In a league that is trending more and more towards using both guys in the playoffs, there isn't a better tandem out there. I'd take either guy over Grubauer. I'm more worried about either of Fleury/Lehner to steal a series than I am about Grubauer and obviously both of them are better suited turn around a series than Dubnyk is. For me, the single biggest thing to "fear" about a series is that a goalie goes into Hasek-mode and single-handedly steals 2-3 games. I'm not sure we can outplay and "deserve" to win 6 of 7 games against either of these teams. We are in huge trouble if the goalie for either of these teams steals 2-3 games against us and I am much more concerned about that happening against Vegas.

2: My personal life. I lived in Colorado for almost a decade and have a lot of friends who are Avs fans. Shit-talking and friend-bets are fun as hell. I just have a bigger emotional stake in an Blues-Avs series than a Blues-Knights one.

3: Looking Ahead. I think Minnesota matches up better against Vegas than they do against the Avs. I'd rather see Minnesota in the 2nd round and I think we have a better chance of that happening if they are playing the Knights than the Avs.