Playoff Watch 2021

[Ted Hoffman]

Seven weeks ago, we looked like we were cruising toward a playoff spot.
Five weeks ago, we looked like we were in decent shape but needed to find our game and scratch out a few points.
Three weeks ago, we looked like we were in full collapse.
Two weeks ago, we weren't in full collapse but teetering on the brink.
A week ago, we're off the brink but not safe.
Today, we have to shit the bed to not make it.

This team is enough to make a Blues fan want to sniff paint thinner on top of magic markers, glue and chalk.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I'd rather face the Avs for a few reasons:

1: Goaltending. Vegas has the best goaltending situation in the West. Fleury has been a no-doubt-top-5 goalie this season and has 5 trips to the Final under his belt. I'm higher on Grubauer than most around here, but Fleury has a distinct edge. And if things go sideways for Fleury, Lehner is probably the best 1B/backup plan in the league. He got them to the Conference Final last year and has been good in all 3 of his career playoff appearances. There is a very, very good argument to make that Vegas has two guys who are top 10 NHL netminders. In a league that is trending more and more towards using both guys in the playoffs, there isn't a better tandem out there. I'd take either guy over Grubauer. I'm more worried about either of Fleury/Lehner to steal a series than I am about Grubauer and obviously both of them are better suited turn around a series than Dubnyk is. For me, the single biggest thing to "fear" about a series is that a goalie goes into Hasek-mode and single-handedly steals 2-3 games. I'm not sure we can outplay and "deserve" to win 6 of 7 games against either of these teams. We are in huge trouble if the goalie for either of these teams steals 2-3 games against us and I am much more concerned about that happening against Vegas.

2: My personal life. I lived in Colorado for almost a decade and have a lot of friends who are Avs fans. Shit-talking and friend-bets are fun as hell. I just have a bigger emotional stake in an Blues-Avs series than a Blues-Knights one.

3: Looking Ahead. I think Minnesota matches up better against Vegas than they do against the Avs. I'd rather see Minnesota in the 2nd round and I think we have a better chance of that happening if they are playing the Knights than the Avs.

4. Any chance to be able to beat the Avs so we can say "f*** Stan Kroenke," we're all for it.

 

[TheDizee]

Coyotes lose 3-2 in regulation

Blues 5 pts up with 3 games in hand

 

[Blueston]

Coyotes lose 3-2 in regulation

Blues 5 pts up with 3 games in hand

LA is only team left with magic number greater than 2.

 

[TheDizee]

2 points clinches the last spot for us, most points coyotes can get is 56.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Blues Magic Number: 6 (7)

Magic Number Race for teams to pass the Blues in the Final Standings:
Coyotes - 17 (4/22)
Sharks - 22 (5/24)
Kings - 23 (7/28)

The Sharks are nearly eliminated mathematically. It’s possible the Kings outlast the Coyotes, things are close between them.

Someone asked in another thread why the Blues magic number was 6 and not 5 as Pang said on the broadcast (prior to the game). It’s because the Kings mathematically could have gotten one point better than Arizona. But after tonight:

Max points, games left. Note that the Blues magic number is now predicated on the Kings. The Blues have 55 points right now.
Blues - 67, 6 (magic number 4 of 24 possible points)
Coyotes - 56, 3 (magic number 17 of 18 possible points)
Sharks - 54, 4 (They are eliminated.)
Kings - 58, 6 (magic number 21 of 24 possible points)

The Coyotes would have to win out and have the Blues lose out, with one point leeway if you concede the probable tiebreaker to them.

The Kings have a better chance at the playoffs, and they’re 9 points back of the Blues with the same 6 games to play.

It’s probably not worth tracking this stuff any more, but the clinching could happen 5/5 under ideal outcomes. It looks highly likely that the Blues will have their last 3-4 games as padding.

 

[Brian39]

This has been an incredibly frustrating year at times and I think the Blues regular season performance fell short of pretty much all preseason expectations.

But they could still clinch a playoff spot with 5 games left in the season. They found their game before it was too late and I give them a legitimate chance in round one no matter who they play. I still haven't upgraded them to legit contenders, but I'm more optimistic today than I was on 1/1/21.

 

[WATTAGE4451]

2 points clinches the last spot for us, most points coyotes can get is 56.

Technically it doesn't. It clinches over coyotes, but kings still have 6 games left and could get 58 points if they won out(though unlikely)

 

[AjaxManifesto]

Seven weeks ago, we looked like we were cruising toward a playoff spot.
Five weeks ago, we looked like we were in decent shape but needed to find our game and scratch out a few points.
Three weeks ago, we looked like we were in full collapse.
Two weeks ago, we weren't in full collapse but teetering on the brink.
A week ago, we're off the brink but not safe.
Today, we have to shit the bed to not make it.

This team is enough to make a Blues fan want to sniff paint thinner on top of magic markers, glue and chalk.

Haha...best post of the thread

 

[WeWentBlues]

I just realized this morning how tight 1-3 are in the Honda West Division. Blues 1st round opponent could be any of Minnesota, Vegas or Colorado and Blues will play a big part in deciding the final standings with 2 vs Vegas and 2 vs Minnesota. All in favor of forfeiting the last two vs Minnesota just to see the world burn, say aye (i.e. Vegas vs Colorado in round 1).

 

[Stealth JD]

Who's going to start producing playoff avatars? Do we even have a theme? Ought to be "We don't even care - We've got a Cup!"

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Who's going to start producing playoff avatars? Do we even have a theme? Ought to be "We don't even care - We've got a Cup!"

I was planning to let Vollie choose my avatar in honor of the imminent post-season berth. We had a joke side bet. The fun got a little spoiled by self-righteousness so I’m kind of jaded about any of it, but elkranio made a sweet gif of Kyrou turn-styling Pietro.

 

[execwrite1]

Non-Blues playoff note -

Scotia North division in Canada could be an interesting first round.

Montreal vs Toronto
Winnipeg vs Edmonton

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

The race for seeding in the division is starting to get interesting.

1 VGK - 74/84 possible
2 Col - 72/84 possible
3 Min - 70/80 possible

Colorado has the tiebreaker edge and Minnesota would probably have it over Vegas if they manage to tie on points.

Remaining schedules:
Vegas - @Minn, STL, STL, COL, @sj (not easy)
Colorado - @sj, @LAK, @LAK, @Vegas, LAK, LAK
Minnesota - Vegas, Ana, Ana, @ STL, @STL

If the Wild win tomorrow over Vegas again, it could get pretty interesting. If Colorado takes care of business vs LA they should get the 1st seed. But if they leave an opening, it’s conceivable that Minnesota could swoop in. We could see a situation where the Blues might be better served to lose the games to ensure the Minnesota match-up. Of course they won’t sandbag in that situation where they need to be tuning up for the postseason. But a lot of taxi squaders may play.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

How great would it be for Vegas and Colorado to face off in the first round? I’ve seen power rankings that have them 1/2 for the league. You’d have to hand it to Minnesota if they could pull that off.

 

[Brian39]

How great would it be for Vegas and Colorado to face off in the first round? I’ve seen power rankings that have them 1/2 for the league. You’d have to hand it to Minnesota if they could pull that off.

That would be incredible. I think a Blues-Wild series would be super fun and we seem to be the only team capable of beating the Wild in their building. They are 17-2-1 over their last 20 home games and we are responsible for 2 of those 3 losses. We also took them to OT in another game.

I've been rooting for a Blues/Avs opening round, but I'm starting to hope for a Blues/Wild opener while watching a war between Colorado and Vegas.

 

[Moose and Squirrel]

Seven weeks ago, we looked like we were cruising toward a playoff spot.
Five weeks ago, we looked like we were in decent shape but needed to find our game and scratch out a few points.
Three weeks ago, we looked like we were in full collapse.
Two weeks ago, we weren't in full collapse but teetering on the brink.
A week ago, we're off the brink but not safe.
Today, we have to shit the bed to not make it.

This team is enough to make a Blues fan want to sniff paint thinner on top of magic markers, glue and chalk.

I'm sure there's a better way to post that.. sorry folks

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

That would be incredible. I think a Blues-Wild series would be super fun and we seem to be the only team capable of beating the Wild in their building. They are 17-2-1 over their last 20 home games and we are responsible for 2 of those 3 losses. We also took them to OT in another game.

I've been rooting for a Blues/Avs opening round, but I'm starting to hope for a Blues/Wild opener while watching a war between Colorado and Vegas.

It’s still a long shot, but a plausible one instead of just mathematically possible.

 

[Brian39]

It’s still a long shot, but a plausible one instead of just mathematically possible.

Minnesota needs to beat Vegas head-to-head tomorrow night for it to be anything more than "technically possible" because I definitely don't see them erasing a 6 point deficit with 4 games left.

How fun would the last week be if Minnesota beats Vegas and the Sharks can beat the Avs tomorrow? Sign me up for that race (which the NHL needs because the 16 playoff teams are almost already set).

 

[Xerloris]

This has been an incredibly frustrating year at times and I think the Blues regular season performance fell short of pretty much all preseason expectations.

But they could still clinch a playoff spot with 5 games left in the season. They found their game before it was too late and I give them a legitimate chance in round one no matter who they play. I still haven't upgraded them to legit contenders, but I'm more optimistic today than I was on 1/1/21.

I agree but luckily we are playing our best hockey of the season right before the playoffs.

I just realized this morning how tight 1-3 are in the Honda West Division. Blues 1st round opponent could be any of Minnesota, Vegas or Colorado and Blues will play a big part in deciding the final standings with 2 vs Vegas and 2 vs Minnesota. All in favor of forfeiting the last two vs Minnesota just to see the world burn, say aye (i.e. Vegas vs Colorado in round 1).

View attachment 429609

All the times we had to play the Blackhawks in round 1, god I would love to see Vegas and Colorado forced together in the 1st round.

I was planning to let Vollie choose my avatar in honor of the imminent post-season berth. We had a joke side bet. The fun got a little spoiled by self-righteousness so I’m kind of jaded about any of it, but elkranio made a sweet gif of Kyrou turn-styling Pietro.

I still think my idea was the best

 

[BlueMed]

Who's going to start producing playoff avatars? Do we even have a theme? Ought to be "We don't even care - We've got a Cup!"

A few of us were talking about doing a Mortal Kombat themed avatar this year.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

I just realized this morning how tight 1-3 are in the Honda West Division. Blues 1st round opponent could be any of Minnesota, Vegas or Colorado and Blues will play a big part in deciding the final standings with 2 vs Vegas and 2 vs Minnesota. All in favor of forfeiting the last two vs Minnesota just to see the world burn, say aye (i.e. Vegas vs Colorado in round 1).

View attachment 429609

I’m 100% down for this. The Wild don’t scare me the same way COL/VGK do.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Colorado has the 1st tiebreak (regulation wins) on everyone. Minnesota lags Vegas on the 1st tiebreak. If they end up tied on regulation wins, Vegas holds the 2nd tiebreak (regulation + OT wins).

Let's say Minnesota wins tomorrow night in regulation. That puts them to 72 points, even with Vegas on RW but still trailing on ROW and still 2 points back. Remaining schedules at that point:

Vegas: STL, STL, COL, @sj
Colorado: @sj, @LA, @LA, @VEG, LA, LA
Minnesota: ANH, ANH, @STL, @STL

Vegas and Colorado still have a game against each other; ignoring all the other games leading up to that, either Colorado will get to 74 or Vegas will get to 76. A Vegas win means the Golden Knights only need 4 points from STL, STL, @sj to guarantee finishing ahead of MIN with any MIN loss making the job that much easier. The Colorado win path then means Minnesota has to get 3 more points than Colorado over the remaining 4 games, which means Colorado has to shit the bed with the other 5 remaining games against the Kings and Sharks.

Not impossible for the Wild to win the division and force Vegas/Colorado as a 1st-round series, but I wouldn't bet money I really couldn't live without on that. I suspect by the time we get to those last 2 games, the seeds will be set. We have a better chance of pissing away the 4th seed, and I wouldn't bet on that happening either.

 

[Brian39]

Not impossible for the Wild to win the division and force Vegas/Colorado as a 1st-round series, but I wouldn't bet money I really couldn't live without on that. I suspect by the time we get to those last 2 games, the seeds will be set. We have a better chance of pissing away the 4th seed, and I wouldn't bet on that happening either.

Agree with most of your analysis/sentiment except for the last part. Moneypuck and Sportsclub stats have us at 99.5% and 99.7% chance to make the playoffs. Meanwhile, Moneypuck has Minnesota at 1.5% to win the division and Sportsclub stats has them at 2%. Not good odds, but 3-7 times more likely than us pissing away the 4 seed.

Again, I also wouldn't put any money on it (whether the money was needed or not). To make a poker analogy, Minnesota's chances of winning the division are roughly on par with being dealt three of a kind in 5 card poker while our chances of missing the playoffs are roughly on par with being dealt a straight. There is a reason a straight beats 3 of a kind.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Agree with most of your analysis/sentiment except for the last part. Moneypuck and Sportsclub stats have us at 99.5% and 99.7% chance to make the playoffs. Meanwhile, Moneypuck has Minnesota at 1.5% to win the division and Sportsclub stats has them at 2%. Not good odds, but 3-7 times more likely than us pissing away the 4 seed.

Don't get me started on what kind of bullshit I think Sportsclub is for creating probabilities for anything unless perhaps it's a binary choice - and even then, I trust my own work and gut feeling. Moneypuck is a step up from that, which is a bit like asking whether I think it's more likely a Pontiac Fiero or a Ford Pinto will catch fire while being driven.