Playoff race.

[HolyHagelin]

That's nuts. I've always believed goal differential is a good indicator of how things will eventually shake out in the standings and the Caps are a team all season I had pegged to fall but it's not happening. They're just hanging in there lol.

Across all sports past scoring differential is a solid predictor of future results. In baseball they talk about Pythagorean wins but it is one of the few stats with transferability across sports. Winning by a lot, often, generally means you will keep winning.

A good way you can leverage this: number 1 seeds in the NCAA tourney that don’t win via blowout the first two rounds usually get upset before the final four.

What? Playoff racism??

This sounds like a chapelle skit

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Across all sports past scoring differential is a solid predictor of future results. In baseball they talk about Pythagorean wins but it is one of the few stats with transferability across sports. Winning by a lot, often, generally means you will keep winning.

A good way you can leverage this: number 1 seeds in the NCAA tourney that don’t win via blowout the first two rounds usually get upset before the final four.


This sounds like a chapelle skit

In the NHL if teams win by a lot HF yells at you that your PDO is unsustainable.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Detroit can not be beat to a playoff spot by -30 goal diff Washington.

 

[HolyHagelin]

In the NHL if teams win by a lot HF yells at you that your PDO is unsustainable.

And as I recently discovered if you talk about Corsi someone will tell you that it is an outdated useless metric

 

[BallardEra]

Pens still not giving up:

Remaining schedule offers Penguins chance to make up ground, but time is running out

It’s hard to make an official tally of every moment this season where all hope of making the playoffs evaporated for the Pittsburgh Penguins. There have been many such instances and games, plenty of them still fresh in mind. Off the ice, the pre-deadline trades of star winger Jake Guentzel

triblive.com

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Just was looking at the standings.

Red Wings are really shitting the bag.

Red wings
Have Buffalo and Islanders banging on the door.

Devils and Penguins need a lot of luck to get in. Honestly there better hope is if the Capitals start playing poorly since it is more likely both wild cards happen in the Atlantic over the Metro.

Red Wings have to get out of this funk

 

[miscs75]

This schedule doesn’t help the Isles one bit. The weakest team is NJ who’s still pushing to hopefully make it in from a distance.

 

[BallardEra]

View attachment 837905

This schedule doesn’t help the Isles one bit. The weakest team is NJ who’s still pushing to hopefully make it in from a distance.

Flyers have the Leafs, Canes, Bruins, Panthers and Rangers next.

Pens have the Devils, Stars, Avs and Canes next.

Tough schedules too.

 

[miscs75]

Flyers have the Leafs, Canes, Bruins, Panthers and Rangers next.

Pens have the Devils, Stars, Avs and Canes next.

Tough schedules too.

Such backloaded schedules. Gonna be like last year where teams make it in after game 82 has ended and all the calculations are figured out.

 

[TGWL]

Such backloaded schedules. Gonna be like last year where teams make it in after game 82 has ended and all the calculations are figured out.

If we're being honest, I really like that. It makes all 82 games feel important. Although, these teams have themselves to blame for not running away with it. It's like they all decided to keep losing and find winning streaks at the same time to end up in the same place.

 

[miscs75]

If we're being honest, I really like that. It makes all 82 games feel important. Although, these teams have themselves to blame for not running away with it. It's like they all decided to keep losing and find winning streaks at the same time to end up in the same place.

just recently, Detroit had the shot to run away from it and tanked with that 6 game streak. Then the Isles had a shot and blew the last 4 games. Philly is just standing pat and staying 2-4 points ahead of the race since the Isles/Washington/Pitt/NJ can’t figure it out.

 

[Byron Bitz]

With roughly 15-17 games left, and not much separation in the standings in the east for the final wild card spot, wondering HFboards thoughts on whose going to claim the last spot, I thought it would have been DET, but their recent 7 game slide has them potentially not making it.

WILDCARD:
1. Tampa Bay: Lightnin:g 76 Points, 66GP
2. New York Islanders: 72 Points, 65GP
3. Detroit Redwings: 72 Points, 66 GP
4. Washington Capitals: 71 Points, 65GP
5. Buffalo Sabers: 69 Points, 67GP
6. New Jersey Devils: 68 points, 66GP
7. Pittsburgh Penguins: 67points, 67GP.

I think Philly falls out, Islanders take 3rd in the Met and Tampa and Detroit take the last two wildcard spots.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Detroit has picked a terrible time to fall apart.

On the other hand so has every other team they’re battling with lol

 

[hockeykicker]

Pay no attention to -27 goal differential team currently in the wc spot and one point back of the metro 3

Shhhhh

 

[Zarao71]

Tampa Bay is the one wild card I’d hate to face.
Vegas is a distant 2nd.
Sergachev is now skating and Vasilevsky is heating up. Kuch, Point, Stamkos, Hedman, Sergachev, Vasilevsky in the playoffs is a nightmare. I’d give Coop an edge over anyone in the league as well.

 

[trick9]

Pay no attention to -27 goal differential team currently in the wc spot and one point back of the metro 3

Shhhhh

They have the tie-breaker on everyone but the Sabres too since the rest of the WC chasers get their points from OT and SO wins. Caps have 3 regulation wins more than the Wings and 6 more than the Islanders.

As silly it is that Capitals are right there with a -27 goal differential... Islanders are right there too with -20 goal differential and they have won 21 of their 67 games in regulation.

 

[Clint Eastwood]

Tampa Bay is the one wild card I’d hate to face.
Vegas is a distant 2nd.
Sergachev is now skating and Vasilevsky is heating up. Kuch, Point, Stamkos, Hedman, Sergachev, Vasilevsky in the playoffs is a nightmare. I’d give Coop an edge over anyone in the league as well.

Couldn't have said it better myself. Tampa is not a team I will count out with that talent, that goaltending, and that coaching. Their depth isn't what it was but if fully healthy, it's not a bottom 6 full of bums either.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Fun race , nice to tune into some meaningful hockey this late in the season

 

[tsujimoto74]

The Caps might pass the Flyers for the 3rd metro spot. Tampa almost certainly takes WC1. Lots of teams racing for WC2, some seemingly trying their damnedest to become irrelevant while others are trying to claw their way in. Should be a fun last ~15 games!

 

[miscs75]

The Caps might pass the Flyers for the 3rd metro spot. Tampa almost certainly takes WC1. Lots of teams racing for WC2, some seemingly trying their damnedest to become irrelevant while others are trying to claw their way in. Should be a fun last ~15 games!

At the trend we seem to be having, Washington will pass Philly by 1-3 points then lose the next 4-6 games and someone else will leap them.

 

[BallardEra]

Caps still have a tough March schedule the rest of the way:

Leafs
Hurricanes
Jets
Wings
Leafs
Bruins

 

[ijuka]

With roughly 15-17 games left, and not much separation in the standings in the east for the final wild card spot, wondering HFboards thoughts on whose going to claim the last spot, I thought it would have been DET, but their recent 7 game slide has them potentially not making it.

WILDCARD:
1. Tampa Bay: Lightnin:g 76 Points, 66GP
2. New York Islanders: 72 Points, 65GP
3. Detroit Redwings: 72 Points, 66 GP
4. Washington Capitals: 71 Points, 65GP
5. Buffalo Sabers: 69 Points, 67GP
6. New Jersey Devils: 68 points, 66GP
7. Pittsburgh Penguins: 67points, 67GP.

You're leaving out the Philadelphia Flyers even though they're only 2 points away from elimination from playoffs.

With the way Caps have been playing lately and considering they have a game in hand, I'd say that they're quite likely to pass Flyers by the end.

So judging by the trends, I think that Tampa and Capitals are most likely in, and then the last place would be between Red Wings, Flyers, Islanders, maybe Sabres. This one is tougher to call, although I think that on paper, Red Wings should have the best chances. They have been very cold, though.

In theory, NJD is clearly the best team out of these, but they might be too far away already.

 

[Darcy Tucker]

The Caps might pass the Flyers for the 3rd metro spot. Tampa almost certainly takes WC1. Lots of teams racing for WC2, some seemingly trying their damnedest to become irrelevant while others are trying to claw their way in. Should be a fun last ~15 games!

Yeah man the Caps , Flyers , Wings , Islanders and dark horse Sabres will be in a dogfight for the last spot. Say whatever you want about the east being weak , this is good for the game it's exciting.

 

[miscs75]

You're leaving out the Philadelphia Flyers even though they're only 2 points away from elimination from playoffs.

With the way Caps have been playing lately and considering they have a game in hand, I'd say that they're quite likely to pass Flyers by the end.

So judging by the trends, I think that Tampa and Capitals are most likely in, and then the last place would be between Red Wings, Flyers, Islanders, maybe Sabres. This one is tougher to call, although I think that on paper, Red Wings should have the best chances. They have been very cold, though.

In theory, NJD is clearly the best team out of these, but they might be too far away already.

8 points separate everyone from Philly to NJ, 10 if you include Tampa. Anything is possible at this point with the circus that is the Eastern conference.

 

[NYRfan85]

As a Rangers fan, Tampa is the one team I do NOT want to face in the first round. Really hoping either the Rangers jump FLA/BOS and face the lower WC, or Tampa falls down.