Players we could offer “prove it” contracts to

[PullHard]

Except that GM's know TB is in cap hell, with limited options, so they'll hardball them (and rightly so), like any good GM should do. Maybe SY gets some preferential treatment from JBB, as I could see the Wings/Bolts as good trading partners as each team is at the opposite end of the others life cycle.

I 100% agree/hope you're right again, but all it takes is one GM to pay fair/ close to fair price and the trade goes through

I hoped we would be able to swing something like Callahan + Johnson for future considerations/ a 7th rounder last offseason, but Dorion took on Callahan for the big advantage of moving up from round 6 to round 5 in the draft.

Same thing with JT Miller, thought here is a guy who has a pretty hefty contract, falls in with the group of Palat, Johnson, Killorn, Gourde of guys who are clearly top 6 caliber players on 90% of NHL rosters, but because Tampa is in a dicey cap situation we can pluck one of those guys cheap. Benning thought Vancouver could use a top 6 player and paid accordingly.

I hope a player like Johnson shakes loose for a discount price, but the reality is that it only takes one GM to like a player and all of the posturing and cap crunching opposing GMs are doing to try and make Brisebois desperate is gone out the window.

 

[Henkka]

There are those full NTCs for all better guys except Killorn at Tampa. I think we have zero use for a Killorn type of player.

They probably fix their cap problems by doing 1-year deals to all RFAs and then Seattle takes one ~5M guy year after.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Capped: Pending RFA/UFA players needing to re-establish value

Domi & Barrie also in full article...

Excerpt:

"Mikael Granlund & Craig Smith (LW & RW) – Nashville Predators
Expiring Cap Hits: $5,750,000 & $4,250,000
If anyone's stock has fallen as far as Barrie's, it might be Mikael Granlund. The Finish forward has put up less than a point every two games since landing on the Predators at the trade deadline in 2019, and hasn't even had any real hot streaks to rekindle a little spark of hope. The Predators as a whole disappointed this past regular season, and Craig Smith was a part of that too. Both wingers look likely to test the free-agent market, and doing so after helping their team win a few playoff rounds would paint a much brighter picture than the one hanging over them now.
Both are in need of showcasing that they haven't turned a bad corner in their careers, and they have the offensive support around them in the lineup to produce. Either one could be a huge help to the scoring depth on lots of teams, they just haven't fit in well in Nashville. Keep an eye on both of them as they may end up being some of the better bargain free agents from this summer's crop since they don't play a premier position and could get squeezed as a result. Add in the possible stagnation of the cap and it looks like a perfect recipe for a short 'prove-it' deal before testing the market again in another year or two."

 

[Hatter of the Beach]

UFA:

Red Wings sign LHD Erik Gustafsson to a 4 year deal worth 16 million dollars.
Red Wings sign C Alex Galchenyuk to a 3 year deal worth 9 million dollars.
Red Wings sign G Aaron Dell to a 2 year deal worth 1.7 million dollars.

Red Wings resign Anthony Mantha to a 5 year deal worth 35 million dollars.
Red Wings resign Tyler Bertuzzi to a 5 year deal worth 25 million dollars.
Red Wings resign Robbi Fabbri to his RFA offer.
Red Wings resign Dymtro Timashov to his RFA offer.


Idk, Something like this is what I expect, nothing earth shattering. Need more talent though and it all can't be from within, so fliers on Galchenyuk/Gustafsson might be worth it at reasonable cost. Dell is a pure back-up play, no real guy from within to even hold that role... cheap filler but the two other guys are upside plays, with options to trade at future trade deadlines for value. See if Timashov and Fabbri can continue to build off there success last year with us before offering long-term/multi-year deals or possibly trading them.

I’d be very happy with those signings, though would be willing to pay Gally a bit more if it means he’s only here for two years (to start)

 

[Hatter of the Beach]

I remember the idea was thrown around a little last year, but I also wouldn’t mind trying Mikhail Grigorenko

 

[RabidBadger]

I got nothing. Just not Haula or Mittelstadt...no former Gophers to stink up the ice! I'd rather have Tinky Winky back than those schleps.

 

[Bench]

I got nothing. Just not Haula or Mittelstadt...no former Gophers to stink up the ice! I'd rather have Tinky Winky back than those schleps.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I got nothing. Just not Haula or Mittelstadt...no former Gophers to stink up the ice! I'd rather have Tinky Winky back than those schleps.

I would flip Cholowski for Mittelstadt in a change of scenery trade in a heartbeat.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I remember the idea was thrown around a little last year, but I also wouldn’t mind trying Mikhail Grigorenko

He signed with Columbus in the middle of April I believe.

 

[Go Wings]

I don't want the least smelly turd. If I'm trading assets away so I can make room for a guy, I want him to have any chance of being an actual positive force.

None of the guys you listed should be on an NHL roster either. But that doesn't make it imperative to clear one of them off so Hirose can have a spot. Taro Hirose is literally a dime a dozen player. He's very undersized, he doesn't do a whole lot defensively or to help with possession. He's got a good pass and passable hockey IQ. That's his entire skill set. His relative advanced stats in that short audition are god awful. He's a pretty big negative in possession and provides precisely no physical presence.

Hirose's 5 assists were on the PP where he spent about the following time with players.
45% with Bertuzzi, Larkin, Mantha all together
14.5% more with just Bertuzzi and Larkin
8.7% more with Bertuzzi and Larkin with AA on the line too.

So that's about 70% of his PP time on PP1.

Taro Hirose - Fantasy Hockey Game Logs, Advanced Stats and more - Frozen Tools


All of the guys you listed are either trash and will be summarily dismissed from the roster, have a boat anchor contract that makes dismissing them prohibitively difficult, play an entirely different position, or brings an aspect to the game that Hirose doesn't. They were all used in checking line roles. Hirose was used on the second line and on PP1.

And what do you think Galchenyuk is? You want to trade assets or waste money and a roster spot on a UFA instead of giving an internal player a chance. 3/4 of this roster is trash. There is little risk in giving Hirose and Svech games with proper minutes.

 

[Winger98]

And what do you think Galchenyuk is? You want to trade assets or waste money and a roster spot on a UFA instead of giving an internal player a chance. 3/4 of this roster is trash. There is little risk in giving Hirose and Svech games with proper minutes.

A dice roll. Even after signing someone like Galchenyuk and essentially gifting Svech a spot because he has to clear waivers, the Wings should still have a couple of spots open for competition up front. Hirose can come to camp and compete with Erne/Timashov/Perlini/Ehn/Gator for a spot. If Hirose, or any of the other young guys, deserve to be on the team, they should be able to beat out that sad lot.

I think we're looking at another season of losing like crazy and trying to maximize assets for futures, though.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

And what do you think Galchenyuk is? You want to trade assets or waste money and a roster spot on a UFA instead of giving an internal player a chance. 3/4 of this roster is trash. There is little risk in giving Hirose and Svech games with proper minutes.

1) I never said a damn thing about Galchenyuk. However, if pressed, I'd be more interested in him over Hirose and probably Svech too because Galchenyuk has been a C in the NHL before and prior to this past year had five seasons in a row of 40-50 points.

2) There may be little risk in giving them games with proper minutes... but I'd say there is damn little reward. Svech is a complete wildcard. He's had exactly 3 games worth of ice time (180 minutes) in three years at the NHL level. He's produced 4 points. Why should he be guaranteed a spot? Maybe he can reclaim some of the prowess he showed in Cape Breton. I mean, I'd bet heavily against it because he's just been plagued by injuries to his knee and other injuries that kind of mess with a player's ability to come back to what they were. It's just like why Gabe Vilardi should have been so scary to everyone in the draft.

If guys aren't making it onto the roster now... it's because they aren't any damn good. The Wings traded for Brendan Perlini and Adam Erne, two guys who were pretty damn useless even when Yzerman traded for them. Hirose got his shot to be on the roster and be given time the last two years. 18-19 he finished well enough that they brought him back for 19-20. 19-20, he wasn't impressive at all. I know the common complaint is that "oh, prospect X wasn't given a fair shot! He played with garbage and that's why he sucked". Most of the time, guys just aren't that damn good. If they deserved to be granted a roster spot, Detroit wouldn't have gone waiver diving for Timashov.

Seriously, take the red and white goggles off. Think of Hirose if he were a Chicago Blackhawk. You'd think he was f***ing trash with 14 points in 34 games playing with their top line. Think if Svechnikov was on the Anaheim Ducks and he had 4 points in 3 years. You wouldn't be stumping to see him like he was a great player. Svech busted due to injuries. It happens. Hirose is literally a dime a dozen player. There is nothing special at all about Taro Hirose. Wings could dip into the league minimum pool and sign, I don't know, Curtis Lazar and I don't think you'd notice a difference in production.

 

[lomekian]

1) I never said a damn thing about Galchenyuk. However, if pressed, I'd be more interested in him over Hirose and probably Svech too because Galchenyuk has been a C in the NHL before and prior to this past year had five seasons in a row of 40-50 points.

2) There may be little risk in giving them games with proper minutes... but I'd say there is damn little reward. Svech is a complete wildcard. He's had exactly 3 games worth of ice time (180 minutes) in three years at the NHL level. He's produced 4 points. Why should he be guaranteed a spot? Maybe he can reclaim some of the prowess he showed in Cape Breton. I mean, I'd bet heavily against it because he's just been plagued by injuries to his knee and other injuries that kind of mess with a player's ability to come back to what they were. It's just like why Gabe Vilardi should have been so scary to everyone in the draft.

If guys aren't making it onto the roster now... it's because they aren't any damn good. The Wings traded for Brendan Perlini and Adam Erne, two guys who were pretty damn useless even when Yzerman traded for them. Hirose got his shot to be on the roster and be given time the last two years. 18-19 he finished well enough that they brought him back for 19-20. 19-20, he wasn't impressive at all. I know the common complaint is that "oh, prospect X wasn't given a fair shot! He played with garbage and that's why he sucked". Most of the time, guys just aren't that damn good. If they deserved to be granted a roster spot, Detroit wouldn't have gone waiver diving for Timashov.

Seriously, take the red and white goggles off. Think of Hirose if he were a Chicago Blackhawk. You'd think he was f***ing trash with 14 points in 34 games playing with their top line. Think if Svechnikov was on the Anaheim Ducks and he had 4 points in 3 years. You wouldn't be stumping to see him like he was a great player. Svech busted due to injuries. It happens. Hirose is literally a dime a dozen player. There is nothing special at all about Taro Hirose. Wings could dip into the league minimum pool and sign, I don't know, Curtis Lazar and I don't think you'd notice a difference in production.

Your point has some merit, in that Svech and Hirose etc are not going to be needle movers. But its also over-simplification. All GM's, armchair or otherwise, look beyond just stats.

1) Hirose may have got SOME top PP minutes, but has never played regularly on a top line (and for over 1/2 his games not on the 2nd line either). Looking at 14 points in the NHL in his first pro games, plus 27 in 35 in his first AHL games would make you think that he's worth a look at the NHL on 3rd line with PP minutes. Would he be preferable to Galchenyuk? If the latter's salary demands are reasonable and he's not got too many personality black marks, then Galchenyuk is the better choice. But compared to the 19/20 roster, he's absolutely worth another look. We know his several limitations, but he's a genuine playmaker, and there is a massive dearth of those on the wings. A decent season's exposure where he doesn't too do too badly at least turns him into a trade asset, which at the present is a decent policy to pursue. It made sense to give him his shot after Perlini and Erne as he's waiver exempt and is still adjusting to the pro game.
I don't see him as a long term piece, but he has the potential to be a useful stop gap and a trade asset.

I suppose his likelihood of game time is linked to what the wings do with Sam Gagner.

2) Svech? Former first round pick who has never looked out of place in the NHL, but has underwhelmed in the AHL after a good start. At this point, its all about how his knee has recovered, and how he is mentally about the injury. All personality reports on him are favourable, he's got talent around the net and has attributes that lend themselves well to an NHL 3rd line. It all depends on health and confidence. He's not going to be the guy we hoped, but he's still got the chance to be an NHL regular. Lots of unknowns.

In both cases, they are guys who at this stage you wouldn't give up assets for, but both would find teams willing to give them a shot. While we are bottoming out and looking to weaponise cap space, it makes sense for them to get a shot here. We're going to be rubbish again next year, so might as well be rubbish in a way that doesn't cost us anything.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Your point has some merit, in that Svech and Hirose etc are not going to be needle movers. But its also over-simplification. All GM's, armchair or otherwise, look beyond just stats.

1) Hirose may have got SOME top PP minutes, but has never played regularly on a top line (and for over 1/2 his games not on the 2nd line either). Looking at 14 points in the NHL in his first pro games, plus 27 in 35 in his first AHL games would make you think that he's worth a look at the NHL on 3rd line with PP minutes. Would he be preferable to Galchenyuk? If the latter's salary demands are reasonable and he's not got too many personality black marks, then Galchenyuk is the better choice. But compared to the 19/20 roster, he's absolutely worth another look. We know his several limitations, but he's a genuine playmaker, and there is a massive dearth of those on the wings. A decent season's exposure where he doesn't too do too badly at least turns him into a trade asset, which at the present is a decent policy to pursue. It made sense to give him his shot after Perlini and Erne as he's waiver exempt and is still adjusting to the pro game.
I don't see him as a long term piece, but he has the potential to be a useful stop gap and a trade asset.

I suppose his likelihood of game time is linked to what the wings do with Sam Gagner.

2) Svech? Former first round pick who has never looked out of place in the NHL, but has underwhelmed in the AHL after a good start. At this point, its all about how his knee has recovered, and how he is mentally about the injury. All personality reports on him are favourable, he's got talent around the net and has attributes that lend themselves well to an NHL 3rd line. It all depends on health and confidence. He's not going to be the guy we hoped, but he's still got the chance to be an NHL regular. Lots of unknowns.

In both cases, they are guys who at this stage you wouldn't give up assets for, but both would find teams willing to give them a shot. While we are bottoming out and looking to weaponise cap space, it makes sense for them to get a shot here. We're going to be rubbish again next year, so might as well be rubbish in a way that doesn't cost us anything.

Right... and for Svech, I can see the argument. Hirose I can't. Svech has played well when he's been healthy. He's been mediocre on a terrible team, which is a net positive.

For Hirose...
Taro Hirose 2019-20 Game Log | Hockey-Reference.com

No assists in his last 13 games after 10/29. All 5 assists on PP on goals by Mantha, Cholowski, Hronek, and Larkin (aka PP1)
He's a "playmaker" like Abdelkader is a "tough guy." He would be worth more of a look if he did ANYTHING besides pass the puck decently. Take it away, toss body checks, block shots. Anything. Hirose passes the puck. That's it. And what kind of trade asset is he going to become?

 

[Fear]

Assuming Tyler Johnson does have negative value, I doubt he would get traded to Detroit just because Yzerman signed that contract and the optics would be so bad.

"Hey Tampa, remember that 7-year deal I signed on your behalf 3 years ago? Turns out it's so bad you're gonna have to pay me to take it off your hands"

It's a hard sell

 

[lomekian]

Right... and for Svech, I can see the argument. Hirose I can't. Svech has played well when he's been healthy. He's been mediocre on a terrible team, which is a net positive.

For Hirose...
Taro Hirose 2019-20 Game Log | Hockey-Reference.com

No assists in his last 13 games after 10/29. All 5 assists on PP on goals by Mantha, Cholowski, Hronek, and Larkin (aka PP1)
He's a "playmaker" like Abdelkader is a "tough guy." He would be worth more of a look if he did ANYTHING besides pass the puck decently. Take it away, toss body checks, block shots. Anything. Hirose passes the puck. That's it. And what kind of trade asset is he going to become?

Yup. It was a rubbish run, and he got sent down. He did have 13 points in his 23 games prior though. And even with that awful run, he was 11th on forward scoring for the season as a whole, in 26 games, playing 12 mins a night. You extrapolate PPG and he was our 7th best point producer.

And you know how many players had more PP assists than Hirose over the course of the whole season? 3. Bert, Larkin, Hronek.

Our PP was trash last year, and relied on booming shots from the point or circles because it had almost zero creativity. You remember the 2nd PP units at the end of last year? Flip and 4 warm bodies (at best).

I've said before that Hirose is not a needle mover and is a stop gap while the team is bad. I've also said he's behind Galchenyuk or equivalent FA. But he's a guy who can create on the man advantage, and with the right linemates. Sure he's got lots of weaknesses, but given our bottom 6 is Glendenning, Helm and pile of steaming horse manure, I don't see the harm in giving him more opportunities.

And yes, if he finds some form and puts up 25 assists and 6 or 7 goals, then he will have value.

 

[Reddwit]

Literally every off-season since I became a hockey fan, I have been in favor of "prove it" deals and reclamation projects. Not this year. The team is already packed with players who need to "prove it" after the abomination that was this past season. We don't need one more guy "finding his way." We need guys who know the way.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

Literally every off-season since I became a hockey fan, I have been in favor of "prove it" deals and reclamation projects. Not this year. The team is already packed with players who need to "prove it" after the abomination that was this past season. We don't need one more guy "finding his way." We need guys who know the way.

Agreed

 

[Henkka]

Literally every off-season since I became a hockey fan, I have been in favor of "prove it" deals and reclamation projects. Not this year. The team is already packed with players who need to "prove it" after the abomination that was this past season. We don't need one more guy "finding his way." We need guys who know the way.

Yeah, reclamation projects work more when you are a contender. Like Cleary, Sammy, Lilja etc guys at 2006.

 

[Go Wings]

Literally every off-season since I became a hockey fan, I have been in favor of "prove it" deals and reclamation projects. Not this year. The team is already packed with players who need to "prove it" after the abomination that was this past season. We don't need one more guy "finding his way." We need guys who know the way.

This is the way

 

[lomekian]

Literally every off-season since I became a hockey fan, I have been in favor of "prove it" deals and reclamation projects. Not this year. The team is already packed with players who need to "prove it" after the abomination that was this past season. We don't need one more guy "finding his way." We need guys who know the way.

Its still worth it if Fabbri like opportunities arise or if you have a position of organisational weakness like at goaltender at the moment. Prove it contracts for guys in their early 20s who haven't fulfilled early expectations are worth a dice roll while we are at the stage we are. I think within 18 months the situation will have changed as we'll have enough guys who need to be at the NHL level coming through, so I see the season coming up being our last for 2-3 years where these kind of fliers are worth taking. Enough of our young guns are waiver exempt and not AHL dominant for there to be limited need to rush them.

That said, no point taking fliers on guys unless they have real high end potential and some pedigree. Fabbri made perfect sense. Perlini made sense but failed badly. Erne? I guess justified by Yzerman's connection? Comrie? with Howard falling off a cliff it was worth a look for a prospect that was going nowhere. Timashov? Looks like a guy who could bring something. Yzerman's moves made sense as they were either for guys who have shown something or in a position of dire need. Erne is the outlier and there was a personal link.

In all these cases, its situational. No point taking a chance on guy who wants 2-3 years unless they are an obvious upgrade. Not much merit in taking a chance on a forward who grinds and lacks offence, and at this stage, wingers need to be an obvious upgrade to be worth it. Bit more wiggle room on the D-core as we have a few nice prospects, but they are probably a year away, and I don't hold great long-term hopes for DDK's health or Bowey's positional sense. In net, we have to give someone a chance anyway.

Of course, each thrown dart that finds the board lessens the scope for such deals going forward, but the paucity of this team means we still have some low risk wiggle room. in 21/22 we'll have Ras, Veleno and others needing a proper NHL run, so things will be different.

 

[Retire91]

Literally every off-season since I became a hockey fan, I have been in favor of "prove it" deals and reclamation projects. Not this year. The team is already packed with players who need to "prove it" after the abomination that was this past season. We don't need one more guy "finding his way." We need guys who know the way.

I both agree and disagree. I think we have far too many players that are in a prove it mode, but we also have a luxury we can lean on right now. We are not able to win even if we tried so we have a window of opportunity to role the dice repeatedly. There should be at least 2 or 3 roster spots including goalie that should just be 20-30 game tryout spots. If you don't show any promise then, next....

You can make room for these slots by burrying people like Abby and Neilsen in the AHL.

 

[Gniwder]

Yup. It was a rubbish run, and he got sent down. He did have 13 points in his 23 games prior though. And even with that awful run, he was 11th on forward scoring for the season as a whole, in 26 games, playing 12 mins a night. You extrapolate PPG and he was our 7th best point producer.

And you know how many players had more PP assists than Hirose over the course of the whole season? 3. Bert, Larkin, Hronek.

Our PP was trash last year, and relied on booming shots from the point or circles because it had almost zero creativity. You remember the 2nd PP units at the end of last year? Flip and 4 warm bodies (at best).

I've said before that Hirose is not a needle mover and is a stop gap while the team is bad. I've also said he's behind Galchenyuk or equivalent FA. But he's a guy who can create on the man advantage, and with the right linemates. Sure he's got lots of weaknesses, but given our bottom 6 is Glendenning, Helm and pile of steaming horse manure, I don't see the harm in giving him more opportunities.

And yes, if he finds some form and puts up 25 assists and 6 or 7 goals, then he will have value.

Hirose became useless when the opponents figured out they can just run him over. Literally just run him over.

He needs to bulk up, it's that simple. Even if he became a 40 assist guy scoring NO goals, he's more useful than half the forwards on this team. The problem is that he can't hold his own on the ice. Bulk up, win some puck battles. Then he's an NHL caliber player. He's got vision and hockey IQ.

Anyways, aside from lack of creativity, the players just all suck at passing, zone entry, and FO. The lack of PPA is not surprising at all.

 

[Hatter of the Beach]

Literally every off-season since I became a hockey fan, I have been in favor of "prove it" deals and reclamation projects. Not this year. The team is already packed with players who need to "prove it" after the abomination that was this past season. We don't need one more guy "finding his way." We need guys who know the way.

The problem is a lot of guys who “know their way” probably aren’t going to want to sign with this dumpster fire barring major overpayment.

Plus it’s not like they’re pure unknowns. Like it or not either of the two players listed in my op would immediately be one of our 6 best forwards AT WORST, regardless if they up their game to previous highs (assuming we get picks 2-4 and our choice doesn’t play the full year).

Factor in the fact that half of our roster is useless anyway, and I don’t see the downside. The only forward with ANY top 6 potential that could possibly make the team next year is Veleno, and even that is a very small chance this year. Basically, I’d rather take a flyer on Gally than hand a spot to someone like Svechnikov who has shown next to no success in his NHL looks. If Grandlund doesn’t know the way, players like Erne and Hirose can’t even put it in the GPS. This isn’t Samuelson being signed to hold back Nyquist, the single player in our system that didn’t play last year but can give us top production is our incoming draft pick.

 

[KasperTheGrittyGhost]

I like Galchenyuk, Haula, and Namsestnikov as prove it options. Namestnikov hasn’t been mentioned yet, but he’s a really solid player that could at least back fill Flip’s spot when he’s dealt at the deadline. He played for Stevie in Tampa too, so I could see some positive familiarity there too.