Player Talk: Anthony Mantha

[Henkka]

Over the last three seasons combined, at 5 on 5 the Red Wings get 55.5% of the goals when Mantha is on the ice and 42.7% of the goals when he is off the ice (and 53.2% of the shot attempts with vs 47.0% without, so it's not like he's just been lucky with the shooting percentages). He may not put up points at the rate we hoped, but can we really complain when his is consistently outplaying his opposition?

I've been wondering this too. Everybody is accusing Mantha about his sloppy-looking skating and somewhat non-defence, but he prevents shots and goals from happening better than any of our forwards. That's a pure fact. With 3-year data.

I think it must be his reach and stick defence, which is kind of "stealth", but just effective. Athanasiou can skate and hustle more, but when he is on the ice, we are scored against a lot more, than Mantha on the ice.

 

[Shaman464]

And yet, you still have to resort to appealing to authority. Yikes.

Also, as a side note, the validity of most degrees in judging one’s intelligence is pretty much gone these days. The overabundance of tier 2+ universities where anyone who has a 90+ IQ can get into Graduate Programs has made the “I’m Educated therefore smarter” line pretty cringeworthy. Even a lot of Ph.Ds these days are essentially pay to attend and, in most instances, not an economically smart decision.

And I say this as someone who has a Masters in Computer Science and just got 330 on my GRE (as a non native English Speaker) for when I get my MBA. Just wanted to call you out for sounding like a tool

GRE isn't a predictor of anything other than how well you can do on the GRE. There is a specious and weak correlation between scores and grad outcomes, but, that tends to be more true in programs that rely on standardized testing as a measure of outcomes. The reason why most PhDs are pay to attend is because funding for social sciences and arts, and even the harder sciences, has become sparser and harder to get. While its still a rule for the psychical and life sciences and engineering that you shouldn't consider a program that isn't funded, the arts and social sciences this isn't as true. As for economic viability, even MDs are becoming economically inviable, but society can't be made up of only stockbrokers, can it? Finally, what are tier two universities? There are plenty of smart people in middle tier universities, who go there because cost of attendance has skyrocketed.

As for Mantha, he's finally getting it together. I figured he would, hand injuries are deceptively hard to come back from.

 

[Reddwit]

Over the last three seasons combined, at 5 on 5 the Red Wings get 55.5% of the goals when Mantha is on the ice and 42.7% of the goals when he is off the ice (and 53.2% of the shot attempts with vs 47.0% without, so it's not like he's just been lucky with the shooting percentages). He may not put up points at the rate we hoped, but can we really complain when his is consistently outplaying his opposition?

This is why I hate advanced stats. They require a ton of context. You can't look at them in isolation. There was a thread on the main board a couple months ago that proposed Tomas f***ing Tatar for the Selke based on his CF. And a positive CF or other similar advanced stat is certainly not equivalent to "outplaying" the opposition.

The fact of the matter is Mantha, like Tatar, is sheltered. That's a dirty word to a lot of hockey fans but it doesn't have to mean that a player can't hold their own defensively. What it really suggests is that their ice time is highly managed. So while he can handle the defensive duties that come with being a winger on the top line going up against other top lines, he's also going to be the first guy taken off that line when the game is tight. And he's going to be one of the last guys being asked to play a shutdown role or to supplement a defensively weak line late in the game to protect a lead or when the game is tight.

And the statistics bear that out. He consistently takes the ice with the team's top center and top 3 defenseman. In 2 of the last 3 seasons, he's played 2/3 of 5 on 5 his time with the team's top center. The other year, he spent 90% of his time split between Larkin and Zetterberg. And when he's moved off those premier lines/units, his corsi goes down more often than not.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

I think/hope he gets traded this summer. I wonder if he can bring back a first round pick?

 

[NickH8]

I'd prefer an established young defenseman over a pick.

I think/hope he gets traded this summer. I wonder if he can bring back a first round pick?

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

I'd prefer an established young defenseman over a pick.

Someone like whom? And what is he even worth at this point?

 

[Hen Kolland]

Someone like whom? And what is he even worth at this point?

Probably more than we collectively give him credit for

 

[NickH8]

Someone like whom? And what is he even worth at this point?

I don't know off the top of my head, but someone like Pesce in Carolina. Good in his own zone, would fit in our future top 4 like a glove (2 righties, 2 lefties). I don't think Mantha would fetch a Trouba caliber guy, but Pesce seems reasonable.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Probably more than we collectively give him credit for

Any suggestions?

 

[Hen Kolland]

Any suggestions?

Don’t trade an asset at low value

 

[Claypool]

Next year will be big for him. It determines if he becomes a long-term building block or a trade piece.

 

[SoupGuru]

Next year will be big for him. It determines if he becomes a long-term building block or a trade piece.

I thought that was supposed to be this season.

10 years from now: I don't know, it will be a big year for him next season. Maybe he'll show he's worth building around.

 

[turkleton85]

it's always the same, and will always be the same. two weeks ago we said "mantha and AA took another step this season" after he had a nice little stretch. Now he's had 5 or 6 bad games in a row and everyone is completely disappointed with him again. Which i can understand, because when he is playing bad, he really is the worst player on the ice in a lot of games. But when he's on, he's the best player on the ice a lot of nights.

This is a frustrating player in this situation, and maybe he needs a new start somewhere else. He will be a good player on a good team, and a frustrating one on our current team

 

[lilidk]

Its all mental . He said one year ago he will take boxing classes , he didn't . Every time he gets in fight he gets injured or just invisible for couple of games . He has all the tools to become Tod Bertuzzi like player . If he doesn't work on his mental conditions he should get traded

 

[Claypool]

I thought that was supposed to be this season.

Well sure, but after next season he'll need a new contract. If he wants a long-term deal from Detroit, much less any other team in the league, he likely needs to score 30+ goals and 60+ points at minimum. He'll have the drive and motivation to perform. He has all the tools to be a dominate player in the league.

 

[ManwithNoIdentity]

I can't believe the amounof banging this guy gets around here

 

[lilidk]

Mantha was 21 when he become regular Red wing . He was kind of slow , didn't help at defense . He improved big time, but still he needs to work on his confidence and shot

 

[KJoe88]

I can't believe the amounof banging this guy gets around here

It’s absurd, man

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

It’s absurd, man

One of like three people who can actually score a goal on this hockey team and people just talk infinite shit.

 

[hkydave04]

because he's lazy and doesn't show a sense of urgency!

 

[lomekian]

Mantha will never be the peak bertuzzi with a better shot that people hoped for, which is why he fell in the draft. He's clearly a confidence player that makes him streaky and makes him disappear, but he's also a guaranteed 20-30 goal scorer if he stays fit, with the possibility of peaking out at 40 one year if he puts it together and the team is better.

No point trading him now unless we get a very favourable offer - we have a shortage of scorers and he is one, and his trade value is unlikely to get significantly lower than it is now. Also sort from the really top players, most 2nd tier big guys don't really come into their own until their mid 20s, so he's still got a chance. Despite his flaws, AA has kicked on a bit this year, and people were all too ready to ditch him

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

because he's lazy and doesn't show a sense of urgency!

And disappears for games at a time....

 

[Henkka]

What peak Bertuzzi? Only player I remember he was compared was Franzen. Big scorer with consistency issues.

 

[turkleton85]

i was wondering as well. Peak Bertuzzi was closer to lindros, that was never manthas game

 

[Sentinel]

This is why I hate advanced stats. They require a ton of context. You can't look at them in isolation. There was a thread on the main board a couple months ago that proposed Tomas ****ing Tatar for the Selke based on his CF. And a positive CF or other similar advanced stat is certainly not equivalent to "outplaying" the opposition.

The fact of the matter is Mantha, like Tatar, is sheltered. That's a dirty word to a lot of hockey fans but it doesn't have to mean that a player can't hold their own defensively. What it really suggests is that their ice time is highly managed. So while he can handle the defensive duties that come with being a winger on the top line going up against other top lines, he's also going to be the first guy taken off that line when the game is tight. And he's going to be one of the last guys being asked to play a shutdown role or to supplement a defensively weak line late in the game to protect a lead or when the game is tight.

And the statistics bear that out. He consistently takes the ice with the team's top center and top 3 defenseman. In 2 of the last 3 seasons, he's played 2/3 of 5 on 5 his time with the team's top center. The other year, he spent 90% of his time split between Larkin and Zetterberg. And when he's moved off those premier lines/units, his corsi goes down more often than not.

What cares? Not every offensive player needs to be a two-way force. A team can't just have thr Fedorovs and Toewses, it needs the Shanahans and Kanes.