Salary Cap: Pittsburgh Penguins Salary Cap Thread - Yohe and Rossi lie about a self imposed ceiling

[Empoleon8771]

"Nobody really seems to understand why the Chicago Blackhawks declined so rapidly"

Pensburgh really showing its ignorance with other teams with that comment

I can easily point to a lot of things in the autopsy of the Blackhawks that caused them to fall off after 2016-2017:

1. A ton of injuries and declining play from their supporting core pieces. They lost Hossa to retirement (which was a massive loss), Seabrook fell off a cliff due to injuries and aging and Crawford became super injury prone and inconsistent. All 3 of those guys were big contributors to the Hawks in 2016-2017, who were the #1 seed in the West that year.
2. Bad trades to try to shake up the team after getting swept in 2017. Trading Hjalmarsson and Panarin for basically Murphy and Saad ended up a disaster for the Hawks.
3. Their main core (Toews, Kane and Keith) started experiencing declines as well, namely Keith. Keith was nearly a Norris finalist in 2016-2017 (4th in voting), and he proceeded to take a significant step backwards. I think Toews also took a slight step back, but it wasn't as big as Keith.

Now, it's entirely possible that this can happen to the Penguins, too. Keith fell off at age 34 and Letang is 33 right now, so that would be a significant problem for the Penguins to deal with in about a year. It's also possible that Crosby and Malkin take a small step back like Toews did. But unless the Penguins make multiple bad trades with some of their supporting core pieces and lose multiple other pieces due to injury, they're not going to go the way of the Hawks. For the Penguins to go the way of the Hawks, this would have to happen:

1. Rust retires due to an injury.
2. Marino takes a huge step back and becomes a Seabrook caliber liability.
3. They trade Dumoulin and Guentzel for awful returns where they only get worse.
4. Jarry becomes super injury prone and inconsistent.
5. Letang takes the massive step back that Keith took when he was 34.

That's how bad the Hawks got railed after 2017. That team got utterly decimated after the 2017 team, partially due to their own incompetence but also due to bad luck.

 

[Peat]

"Nobody really seems to understand why the Chicago Blackhawks declined so rapidly"

Pensburgh really showing its ignorance with other teams with that comment

The weird thing is they do in fact go on to make most of the points you made in the article. "Nobody understands but here's the laundry list of reasons". Or, to put it another way "I'm going to tell you I've no idea, then go on at length about my ideas." Not particularly convincing as writing goes.


This may sound pedantic but I'm not too worried about being the next Blackhawks. Their mistakes are avoidable and I think people were wondering about them with no Hossa or Panarin before the puck dropped. I am worried about being the next Sharks though...

 

[ChaosAgent]

I don't know if this is a legit source, but I certainly would believe this if it ended up true. I think the cost for acquiring Domi would be smaller than most would think.

If legit, that player sounds like a moody emo kid. Don't want.

 

[OswaldBates]

If legit, that player sounds like a moody emo kid. Don't want.

Dicklund is Eklund, Eklund Is Dicklund

 

[Empoleon8771]

The weird thing is they do in fact go on to make most of the points you made in the article. "Nobody understands but here's the laundry list of reasons". Or, to put it another way "I'm going to tell you I've no idea, then go on at length about my ideas." Not particularly convincing as writing goes.


This may sound pedantic but I'm not too worried about being the next Blackhawks. Their mistakes are avoidable and I think people were wondering about them with no Hossa or Panarin before the puck dropped. I am worried about being the next Sharks though...

I don't think the Penguins are at this point yet. The Sharks had a super dramatic and massive decline, to the point where I'd be shocked if it ever happens again after such little change to a team. For reference, they went from a +18 net threat level on hockeyviz (+11 offensively and -7 defensively) to a -5. I'm shocked a team can get that much worse that quickly.

I think losing Pavelski really hurt them and they had dramatic declines from guys like Thornton (who shouldn't even be in the NHL anymore), Karlsson, Burns and Vlasic. They overpaid a lot of their veterans to get them to stick around and pretty much all of them took huge steps back, I'm not worried about Crosby/Malkin/Letang with that. I think they're more in the 2017 Hawks situation.

 

[Turin]

Are the Penguins on the path toward a sudden Blackhawks-like decline?

Penguins have been a playoff team (yes this year counts) from 2007 to 2020 currently. The Blackhawks were a playoff team from 2009 to 2017. They had cheaper stars, including Keith in a ridiculously cheap contract in his prime, and were able to land Hossa for free early which was a huge deal. As soon as they payed Toews and Kane big money and some of those guys declined they lost their depth. Then they found an ace to retool with in Panarin and blew it.

Pens have been paying Sid and Geno big money for over a decade now and have always relied on them more. They can follow a similar path in that the core wins 3 Cups and declines with age, but that’s where any of the similarities end.

 

[Peat]

I don't think the Penguins are at this point yet. The Sharks had a super dramatic and massive decline, to the point where I'd be shocked if it ever happens again after such little change to a team. For reference, they went from a +18 net threat level on hockeyviz (+11 offensively and -7 defensively) to a -5. I'm shocked a team can get that much worse that quickly.

I think losing Pavelski really hurt them and they had dramatic declines from guys like Thornton (who shouldn't even be in the NHL anymore), Karlsson, Burns and Vlasic. They overpaid a lot of their veterans to get them to stick around and pretty much all of them took huge steps back, I'm not worried about Crosby/Malkin/Letang with that. I think they're more in the 2017 Hawks situation.

Seems a more obvious route to me. But in any case, yes, losing Pavelski hurt. As long as we don't trade Guentzel away for shigs and gittles, we've already made a substantial detour from both of their roadmaps to hell.

Actually I guess the most obvious roadmap is LA, where Doughty just gave the hell up. I don't believe our stars will do that, but if they do, that's where it goes wrong.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Seems a more obvious route to me. But in any case, yes, losing Pavelski hurt. As long as we don't trade Guentzel away for shigs and gittles, we've already made a substantial detour from both of their roadmaps to hell.

Actually I guess the most obvious roadmap is LA, where Doughty just gave the hell up. I don't believe our stars will do that, but if they do, that's where it goes wrong.

I really think the big difference between the Kings, Hawks and Sharks and the Penguins is that the Penguins don't have any "bad" contracts on par with those teams. Like sure, JJ sucks, but he also only makes $3.25 million a year. The Hawks have a JJ caliber defenseman signed for a million years making like $7 million a year in Seabrook. The Sharks have the same in Vlasic, plus they have an $8.5 million defenseman that doesn't know how to play defense in Burns. Doughty fell off a cliff too (probably because he's tired of losing and just gave up) plus they have 2 awful mega-deals with Brown and Quick.

I just don't think the Penguins will be going that route because they don't have enough money tied up to their core and they don't have any bad mega contracts. JR has some bad contracts, but he at least limits them to 3rd pair and bottom-6 wingers and has them under $3.5 million a year. He's not paying Karlsson $11.5 million a year or Seabrook $7 million a year.

 

[Peat]

I really think the big difference between the Kings, Hawks and Sharks and the Penguins is that the Penguins don't have any "bad" contracts on par with those teams. Like sure, JJ sucks, but he also only makes $3.25 million a year. The Hawks have a JJ caliber defenseman signed for a million years making like $7 million a year in Seabrook. The Sharks have the same in Vlasic, plus they have an $8.5 million defenseman that doesn't know how to play defense in Burns. Doughty fell off a cliff too (probably because he's tired of losing and just gave up) plus they have 2 awful mega-deals with Brown and Quick.

I just don't think the Penguins will be going that route because they don't have enough money tied up to their core and they don't have any bad mega contracts. JR has some bad contracts, but he at least limits them to 3rd pair and bottom-6 wingers and has them under $3.5 million a year. He's not paying Karlsson $11.5 million a year or Seabrook $7 million a year.

I think you're probably right and make good points about the contracts but I think even more that the NHL is a massive gongshow where weird things happen quickly all the time, hence looking for the stress points of great today awful tomorrow.

 

[billybudd]

UGH Pensburgh is the worst

While I generally don't like speculative articles that are phrased as a question ("Is Canada nearing war with France?" plz click), I also don't think the idea of a "blackhawk-like decline" is as low-percentage as we'd like it to be. Our elite players are nearing 35 and we're somewhat short on 22 year-olds with bright futures.

 

[T1K]

If legit, that player sounds like a moody emo kid. Don't want.

He’s also not that good. I don’t understand the infatuation around here.

 

[Empoleon8771]

He’s also not that good. I don’t understand the infatuation around here.

He's a strong producer at ES, can play center or wing and brings a lot of speed and swagger that the team is lacking with.

His 5v5 point production in his entire career (roughly 2 points per 60) is basically the same as Zucker's (roughly 1.95 points per 60), and he's been at that level for a year longer than Zucker has while being younger.

 

[SEALBound]

I don't think Ryan Wilson watches hockey. I'm dead serious about this. I think has a membership to some paywalled analytic site and writes articles purely on the basis of a half-understanding of how to interpret these, box score stats from the previous night's game (which Wilson didn't watch) along with a combination of biographical details (so and so is right-handed and was drafted in the first round, f/e). This leads to situations where he suggests obvious idiocy, like wanting to trade Hornqvist for Nail Yakupov, years after it was obvious Yakupov was a minor-leaguer (if even that).

He's had an axe to grind against Hornqvist ever since Hornqvist got here. He's suggested trading Hornqvist for more players than I could count, regardless of how Hornqvist is playing. Just had a hat-trick? Time to trade him while his value's high. Injured? Trade him, he's damaged goods. Scoring slump? I told you he was bad, he should be traded for X.

He's the kid who took a single stats class at community college or in HS, then read about what others were doing. In his writing, there is an incredibly superficial understanding of the stats and what they actually mean. Stats are about trends not foregone, standalone conclusions. He does not understand that. A good writer with knowledge of hockey and stats shouldn't be constructing their articles as: "Player X had a XYZ stat of XX%, therefore he had a good game while Player Y had a XYZ stat of XX%, therefore he had a bad game!" It may work at times but it largely ignores the context of the game which you absolutely can't do with adv stats. I've said this before, there's the adv stat test and the eye test. Anyone who goes too far over to one side is wrong. RW is in the deep end of the Adv Stats world and, unbeknownst to him, he doesn't know how to swim so he has difficulty framing the stats in a correct manner most of the time. The crux of his articles seem to be "The Penguins just need better adv stats and they would win!" or "JR needs to take the players with bad adv stats and trade them for players with good adv stats!!!" or "JR signed this person and they have bad adv stats, therefore the signing was bad. How dare he!?" And this is where it gets hard to shake a person who is so deeply rooted in a false premise. Now, if this was a guy who has a masters or PhD in stats and wants to stake his claim, that's fine and we can go ahead and disagree on fundamental premises. We see that all the time in the scientific community. But Wilson just takes the work of other smart people and draws a momentary conclusion so it's difficult to have an actual conversation. There's only so much information you can pull from the adv stats world in hockey.

Yeah except none of that's true. He's definitely an analytics hard liner but he loves the Pens and is a hockey coach for some high school or youth team. How does picking out one thing he's wrong about and making up stuff you don't know (about what he watches?) prove anything?

"Analytics hard liner" tends to be his issue though. And it would be different if there were balanced articles and he was wrong every so often but the "one" thing he's wrong about seems to happen a lot. It's fitting that he's on Eklund's site. That's where he needs to stay.

Are the Penguins on the path toward a sudden Blackhawks-like decline?

I don't think the situations are similar but I don't think it's unfair to suggest a decline. At the end of the day, father time catches us all.

"He who fights against time has an adversary not subject to casualties".

 

[T1K]

He's a strong producer at ES, can play center or wing and brings a lot of speed and swagger that the team is lacking with.

His 5v5 point production in his entire career (roughly 2 points per 60) is basically the same as Zucker's (roughtly 1.95 points per 60), and he's been at that level for a year longer than Zucker has.

When did he last play Center consistently in the NHL? I don’t have analytics on hand to support this statement, but I’m pretty sure Zucker is better defensively. Speed matters, but “swagger” means nothing to me, in fact, I kind of question Domi’s character. I don’t think it’s a coincidence he is always on the trade block.

Would I be upset if we acquired Domi? No, not really, but pending the price I wouldn’t be thrilled.

 

[Empoleon8771]

When did he last play Center consistently in the NHL? I don’t have analytics on hand to support this statement, but I’m pretty sure Zucker is better defensively. Speed matters, but “swagger” means nothing to me, in fact, I kind of question Domi’s character. I don’t think it’s a coincidence he is always on the trade block.

Would I be upset if we acquired Domi? No, not really, but pending the price I wouldn’t be thrilled.

He has played center for his entire time with the Habs. Zucker is better defensively, that is true, but Domi also has the advantage of being a center. He's not "always on the trade block", he has been traded once and has only been on the block for two off-seasons (assuming he's on the block this year). That doesn't say anything about his character, and if you're questioning his character, why aren't you doing the same for McCann?

 

[Peat]

To be fair, O'Reilly sounded like a moody emo kid prior to forcing his way out of Buffalo, and everyone here would take him now (practicalities aside). I don't think I'd be worried about that part of Domi. Kid wants to win and nobody from his locker room has complained (that we know of) - those are the important things.

 

[T1K]

He has played center for his entire time with the Habs. Zucker is better defensively, that is true, but Domi also has the advantage of being a center. He's not "always on the trade block", he has been traded once and has only been on the block for two off-seasons (assuming he's on the block this year). That doesn't say anything about his character, and if you're questioning his character, why aren't you doing the same for McCann?

Every source I see Domi is on the LW, there use to be a site which had historical line combos through the year, but I can’t remember the URL.

https://leftwinglock.com/line-combi...am=montreal-canadiens&strength=EV&gametype=GD

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations/

McCann is an underachiever. Suppose you could say the same about Domi, but I felt like Arizona gave up on him awfully quick. I guess what I should have said is that I’m not surprised he’s on the block again.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

Ill take a 3rd line of ...

Domi - McCann - Hornqvist

Our LWs would be set. And would be huge if Poulin pans out(along with Legare) to fill out the right side to go with Rust and Hornqvist(yes hes still important, he needs the right fit).

If we could get Domi for Bjugstad and a pick....you do it.

Guentzel - Crosby - Poulin
Zucker - Malkin - Rust
Domi - McCann - Legare
Tanev - Hallander - Hornqvist

2021 season.... Is what Im hoping for. Wingers can be switched. With Bjorkvist as 13th. But we know all prospects dont pan out. So I doubt we see that. If 2 of those 4 prospects I listed can make an impact thatll be great. Also with them being on their ELCs, we could spend on a top dman.

Alot of ways this team can go, starting with this draft. Will shape up where we are headed. We have to make the right moves. JR cant mess this up

 

[Peat]

Every source I see Domi is on the LW, there use to be a site which had historical line combos through the year, but I can’t remember the URL.

https://leftwinglock.com/line-combi...am=montreal-canadiens&strength=EV&gametype=GD

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations/

McCann is an underachiever. Suppose you could say the same about Domi, but I felt like Arizona gave up on him awfully quick. I guess what I should have said is that I’m not surprised he’s on the block again.

I find this good for such purposes - Line Combinations - Frozen Tools

The lines he's on with Suzuki, live question over who's C there. The ones without, think its pretty clear he's C there. And iirc he took a bunch of faceoffs this year.

 

[66-30-33]

So if we got Domi I guess Zucker would play RW which by what I remember Minny fans said he's not very good at.

Domi-Crosby-Zucker
Jake-Malkin-Rust

Or if Sheary comes cheap.

Domi-Crosby-Sheary
Jake-Malkin-Rust
Zucker-3C-Poulin?
BART

 

[SEALBound]

To be fair, O'Reilly sounded like a moody emo kid prior to forcing his way out of Buffalo, and everyone here would take him now (practicalities aside). I don't think I'd be worried about that part of Domi. Kid wants to win and nobody from his locker room has complained (that we know of) - those are the important things.

There have certainly been several guys that have huffed and puffed around the league then when they get traded to a better situation, they excel. Domi has the skill set to be a very successful player in the NHL. I've been watching the Canadians roster each game and it looks like he's bouncing up and down the center line up. Last game, 4C - or at least what appeared to be 4C. If MTL has the depth to run 3 good centers, perhaps we can do a Rust-Domi swap. We can get another wing, they can get another center.

 

[Peat]

There have certainly been several guys that have huffed and puffed around the league then when they get traded to a better situation, they excel. Domi has the skill set to be a very successful player in the NHL. I've been watching the Canadians roster each game and it looks like he's bouncing up and down the center line up. Last game, 4C - or at least what appeared to be 4C. If MTL has the depth to run 3 good centers, perhaps we can do a Rust-Domi swap. We can get another wing, they can get another center.

Problem is Rust is cheaper, and plays the right side (which I don't think Domi does), and quite possibly a better hockey player to boot.

I like Domi. I think there's several aspects to him that are just what we could use. But every time someone suggests we pay a good price for him I'm all "ehhhh".

 

[Empoleon8771]

Every source I see Domi is on the LW, there use to be a site which had historical line combos through the year, but I can’t remember the URL.

Montreal Canadiens Line Combinations | Montreal Canadiens Line Combos | leftwinglock.com

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/montreal-canadiens/line-combinations/

Domi has taken 1800 faceoffs in 2 seasons with the Habs. He's a center, or definitely capable of playing center. He's currently playing LW because of how good Kotkaniemi has looked, but he has played an absolute ton of center for the Habs.

In a perfect world, I think you let him and McCann alternate between the 3LW and 3C and have McCann-Domi-Poulin as a line.

McCann is an underachiever. Suppose you could say the same about Domi, but I felt like Arizona gave up on him awfully quick. I guess what I should have said is that I’m not surprised he’s on the block again.

I'm not positive about this, but I think Domi asked for a trade because he felt he wasn't improving as a player and needed a change of scenery. That' why the swap was Galchenyuk for Domi, it was a trade of 2 similar players in 2 similar spots.

 

[rho]

The weird thing is they do in fact go on to make most of the points you made in the article. "Nobody understands but here's the laundry list of reasons". Or, to put it another way "I'm going to tell you I've no idea, then go on at length about my ideas." Not particularly convincing as writing goes.


This may sound pedantic but I'm not too worried about being the next Blackhawks. Their mistakes are avoidable and I think people were wondering about them with no Hossa or Panarin before the puck dropped. I am worried about being the next Sharks though...

Seems pretty clear from the article that that's not what the writer intended to say. I read that statement as meaning "People are comparing the current Penguins to the Blackhawks, which means they have no idea why the Blackhawks declined. Here are the reasons why they declined, and why they don't necessarily apply to the Penguins".

 

[Gurglesons]

To be fair, O'Reilly sounded like a moody emo kid prior to forcing his way out of Buffalo, and everyone here would take him now (practicalities aside). I don't think I'd be worried about that part of Domi. Kid wants to win and nobody from his locker room has complained (that we know of) - those are the important things.

Ryan O'Reilly was a very different player throughout his career at Domi's age.