Speculation: Pietrangelo's future (reports: to go to FA)

[tfriede2]

Question about escrow - I understand that players and owners split revenues. If revenues are less such that a player doesn’t receive his full salary for a particular year, is the player still entitled to receive the remainder of that year’s lost salary in future years when revenues rebound, or is that salary simply lost? This question, I think, might affect how Petro’s situation could play out.

The sports world, and the NHL in particular, is in a very precarious spot with Covid. I don’t know how Stillman can commit huge dollars with the uncertainty over when fans will be allowed to attend games, and how many will choose to attend games when they’re allowed to do so. Revenues plummeted this year, and they will likely be nowhere near normal next year either. When will they return to normal? That’s an unanswerable question, and represents a contingent liability.

While the cap has remained flat, the revenues will most likely be far lower than its cap counterpart. The end result? Players are worth far less now than a year ago, unfortunately for Petro and other UFAs this year. Petro and his agent can’t expect or negotiate as of it’s 2019. Some might think than an offer to Petro at just above 7 per is an insult - is it?

Back to escrow, if a player is still entitled to lost salary in future years when revenues rebound, that could motivate teams to offer less than usual to attempt to further insulate themselves from those future liabilities.

(I haven’t researched how escrow works, so feel free to correct me - and I know you all will - thanks!)

 

[Celtic Note]

I am guessing the gap between the two parties is less to do with AAV (although important to the Blues) and more to do with term. Why would such a gap in AAV (if the reported numbers are correct) not be resolved by now? I would imagine this is a Backes type situation where term was the deciding factor.

We could easily point to the Schenn contract and say it is a bit hypocritical by the Blues to play hardball with Petro and not Schenn. I think the potential difference in the Blues’ eye is Schenn took a lower AAV for longer term. That got Schenn more money and the Blues more cap flexibility. They may be looking for something similar with Petro or again it could be a Backes situation where they are willing to pay the money, but not the term.

 

[tfriede2]

I am guessing the gap between the two parties is less to do with AAV (although important to the Blues) and more to do with term. Why would such a gap in AAV (if the reported numbers are correct) not be resolved by now? I would imagine this is a Backes type situation where term was the deciding factor.

We could easily point to the Schenn contract and say it is a bit hypocritical by the Blues to play hardball with Petro and not Schenn. I think the potential difference in the Blues’ eye is Schenn took a lower AAV for longer term. That got Schenn more money and the Blues more cap flexibility. They may be looking for something similar with Petro or again it could be a Backes situation where they are willing to pay the money, but not the term.

Plus, Schenn is 2-3 years younger, so if we truly want to compare the two, Petro’s comparable contract would be for 5-6 years, not 8.

 

[Celtic Note]

Plus, Schenn is 2-3 years younger, so if we truly want to compare the two, Petro’s comparable contract would be for 5-6 years, not 8.

Yeah, but we might have to shave those 2-3 years off the Schenn equivalency because we know physical forwards wear down faster than most players.

 

[tfriede2]

Yeah, but we might have to shave those 2-3 years off the Schenn equivalency because we know physical forwards wear down faster than most players.

That’s true, I thought about that as well.

 

[Quaz]

The Blues only have 2 players under contract when Petro would turn 35, Schenn and Faulk, which eat up $13M in cap space. If Petro gets 9x8 they would have $22M tied up in 3 players in 24'-25', and that is if Faulk doesn't get traded or taken in the expansion draft. If they keep ROR and Tarasenko past their current contracts they will be making less money, and Parayko, Schwartz, Thomas, etc... will probably be making more. The CAP will probably go up by then, so I don't see any reason why Army doesn't get this done. His biggest challenge will be moving Allen, Bozak, Gunny/whoever else he needs to to clear the cap space needed. They will get some cap space when Tarasenko goes on LTIR, so they may only need to move one of Allen/Bozak to free up enough money for Petro/Dunn.

 

[Alklha]

Assuming the two sides agree in something, isn’t there some pressure on Armstrong to allow for enough time to make other moves? I’m sure he has tentative deals he’s talked to guys about, but it still takes time to get the roster shaped up.

I think that Armstrong is being a little disingenuous when he talks about finding common ground with Pietrangelo and then going to work to move other pieces. I think we're already working to free up cap space, and if Pietrangelo isn't back then it will be allocated elsewhere.

The issue is that there are still 8 teams playing, and while we might now be looking towards trades with them... the teams we're talking to might be. Everything is just more chaotic.

Question about escrow - I understand that players and owners split revenues. If revenues are less such that a player doesn’t receive his full salary for a particular year, is the player still entitled to receive the remainder of that year’s lost salary in future years when revenues rebound, or is that salary simply lost? This question, I think, might affect how Petro’s situation could play out.

The sports world, and the NHL in particular, is in a very precarious spot with Covid. I don’t know how Stillman can commit huge dollars with the uncertainty over when fans will be allowed to attend games, and how many will choose to attend games when they’re allowed to do so. Revenues plummeted this year, and they will likely be nowhere near normal next year either. When will they return to normal? That’s an unanswerable question, and represents a contingent liability.

While the cap has remained flat, the revenues will most likely be far lower than its cap counterpart. The end result? Players are worth far less now than a year ago, unfortunately for Petro and other UFAs this year. Petro and his agent can’t expect or negotiate as of it’s 2019. Some might think than an offer to Petro at just above 7 per is an insult - is it?

Back to escrow, if a player is still entitled to lost salary in future years when revenues rebound, that could motivate teams to offer less than usual to attempt to further insulate themselves from those future liabilities.

(I haven’t researched how escrow works, so feel free to correct me - and I know you all will - thanks!)

Yes, $7m is an insult. The cap is still $81.5m and even without the rising nature, there will be an expectation to be paid like it is an $81.5m cap.

Lost salary is lost forever. The players get 50% of the HRR for that season, and if it is low the amount expected by the cap then the players get less money. If there was a situation where HRR was more than expected by the cap, the players would get more than their stated salary... it's just that isn't likely to happen.

There has been a deal worked out to somewhat defer escrow to make it easier on the players in the coming seasons, but I've not looked into that deal. Most players look to frontload their deals in this situation, but the current situation may be better to Pietrangelo to somewhat backload it when the economic situation is likely going to be better.

When we look at things like signing bonuses, which Toronto fans seem to think is a massive advantage for them in current economic situation, they probably only matter in the second half of a long term deal. It provides buyout protection for the player.

 

[tfriede2]

I think that Armstrong is being a little disingenuous when he talks about finding common ground with Pietrangelo and then going to work to move other pieces. I think we're already working to free up cap space, and if Pietrangelo isn't back then it will be allocated elsewhere.

The issue is that there are still 8 teams playing, and while we might now be looking towards trades with them... the teams we're talking to might be. Everything is just more chaotic.

Yes, $7m is an insult. The cap is still $81.5m and even without the rising nature, there will be an expectation to be paid like it is an $81.5m cap.

Lost salary is lost forever. The players get 50% of the HRR for that season, and if it is low the amount expected by the cap then the players get less money. If there was a situation where HRR was more than expected by the cap, the players would get more than their stated salary... it's just that isn't likely to happen.

There has been a deal worked out to somewhat defer escrow to make it easier on the players in the coming seasons, but I've not looked into that deal. Most players look to frontload their deals in this situation, but the current situation may be better to Pietrangelo to somewhat backload it when the economic situation is likely going to be better.

When we look at things like signing bonuses, which Toronto fans seem to think is a massive advantage for them in current economic situation, they probably only matter in the second half of a long term deal. It provides buyout protection for the player.

I don’t think the flat cap is reflective of the current financial situation for most teams. The NHL probably didn’t decrease the cap because some teams wouldn’t be able to fit. If Petro expects now what he expected at the beginning of the season in terms of AAV, then a deal won’t get done with the Blues, IMO.

 

[BlueKnight]

I saw an interesting quote from Taylor Hall:

“I don’t think the money is going to be what it was before Covid or before this season, but that’s fine,” he said. “I think we get paid a lot of money to play a game and we’ll see what happens.”

We’ll see how Petro and his agent view things.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl ... s-reports/

 

[Stealth JD]

I saw an interesting quote from Taylor Hall:

“I don’t think the money is going to be what it was before Covid or before this season, but that’s fine,” he said. “I think we get paid a lot of money to play a game and we’ll see what happens.”

We’ll see how Petro and his agent view things.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl ... s-reports/

Taylor Hall's agent has got to be furious right now. That's the last thing you want your client saying.

 

[Celtic Note]

I saw an interesting quote from Taylor Hall:

“I don’t think the money is going to be what it was before Covid or before this season, but that’s fine,” he said. “I think we get paid a lot of money to play a game and we’ll see what happens.”

We’ll see how Petro and his agent view things.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl ... s-reports/

Got to respect a person that is willing to state the truth even though it’s not in their financial best interest.

 

[EXTRAS]

That quote sounds like it could cost Taylor a million bucks.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Quick Shifts: Why a Maple Leafs run at Pietrangleo isn't so crazy - Sportsnet.ca

It’s almost comical that any time the top UFA happens to originate from the Greater Toronto Area, hockey writers pen speculative pieces that he might be coming home.

Understood, Pietrangelo prefers to re-sign in St. Louis, the city that drafted him 12 years ago, and remain close to his wife’s family and take a bunch more runs with the core he won a Cup.

But two things happened this week that make a Pietrangelo signing a little more likely in these parts.

For one, Kyle Dubas — feeling direct heat for the first summer in his tenure — began clearing salary-cap space, trading away tangible asset Kasperi Kapanen for futures and wiggle room. The Leafs GM noted afterward that the Kapanen deal “shows us that our players have good value around the league” and did not rule out dealing more players off his roster.

For two, Vladimir Tarasenko’s future in this game has become a giant question mark. Undergoing a third surgery on his shoulder, the explosive winger won’t even been re-evaluated for another five months.

The uncertainty surrounding Tarasenko should give Blues GM Doug Armstrong pause at another major investment on the blue line, where he’s already deep and must re-sign RFA Vince Dunn — at 23, seven years younger than Pietrangelo — for a raise.

Once Dunn is taken care of, does Armstrong not use his available cap room to find some scoring to boost a ho-hum offence that ranked 14th in the regular season and 14th in the post-season?

Armstrong’s words say he’d like Pietrangelo to stay put. His actions have him trading for both Justin Faulk and Marco Scandella during Petro’s contract year and signing each to an extension. Maybe that’s just smart insurance. Maybe it’s a sign.

The bet here is that the Blues do make an offer, but it’ll be lower than the one Pietrangelo could get on the open market. Maybe he takes less to stay where he likes. Hey, Steven Stamkos did.

But if Pietrangelo wants to maximize his next deal, increasingly it feels like that would be elsewhere.

 

[mk80]

Assuming the two sides agree in something, isn’t there some pressure on Armstrong to allow for enough time to make other moves? I’m sure he has tentative deals he’s talked to guys about, but it still takes time to get the roster shaped up.

This is why I think we'll know where things lie with Pietrangelo around draft day. I could see the Blues making some moves and clearing the space needed for him on that day.

 

[tfriede2]

That quote sounds like it could cost Taylor a million bucks.

Covid and the financial situation of teams and the NHL will cost UFAs millions, not a statement confirming that reality from a current UFA. Maybe a few teams that have very lucrative television contracts can afford what UFAs would otherwise demand, but for the majority of teams, I just don’t think that’s realistic. We can’t just act like things haven’t changed. A flat cap doesn’t mean that things are just like last year for UFAs. These owners don’t know when or if their revenue stream will ever get back to pre-Covid levels. While an offer close to 7 mil per for Petro may be deemed “insulting,” so is a demand for 9 mil per that ignores reality.

 

[EXTRAS]

Covid and the financial situation of teams and the NHL will cost UFAs millions, not a statement confirming that reality from a current UFA. Maybe a few teams that have very lucrative television contracts can afford what UFAs would otherwise demand, but for the majority of teams, I just don’t think that’s realistic. We can’t just act like things haven’t changed. A flat cap doesn’t mean that things are just like last year for UFAs. These owners don’t know when or if their revenue stream will ever get back to pre-Covid levels. While an offer close to 7 mil per for Petro may be deemed “insulting,” so is a demand for 9 mil per that ignores reality.

In negotiations almost everything matters. Reality matters only as the parameters of ceiling and floor for what a guy can get.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Seravalli: Sizing up the field for an unprecedented NHL Free Agent Frenzy - TSN.ca

1. ALEX PIETRANGELO

Team: St. Louis Blues

Position: Right Defence

Age: 30

Stats: 16 goals, 36 assists, 52 points in 70 games

2019-20 Cap Hit: $6.5 million

Scoop: When asked about the emotion of potentially playing his last game wearing the Blue Note, Pietrangelo said, “It’s not a fun situation to be in, especially when you’ve been somewhere your whole career.” It may not be fun, but Pietrangelo is perhaps the only free agent whose next contract is unlikely to be impacted by the COVID-19 squeeze. He’s too valuable, checks every box on every team’s list as an all-situations, right-shooting blueliner coming off a strong year, with a career-best 16 goals and captaining the Blues to the last Stanley Cup with fans in the stands. The Blues and Pietrangelo’s camp have not been close on a new deal, but there seems to be real doubt as to whether he actually makes it to market. The Blues would need to move bodies to make a new deal work.

 

[simon IC]

Quick Shifts: Why a Maple Leafs run at Pietrangleo isn't so crazy - Sportsnet.ca

It’s almost comical that any time the top UFA happens to originate from the Greater Toronto Area, hockey writers pen speculative pieces that he might be coming home.

Understood, Pietrangelo prefers to re-sign in St. Louis, the city that drafted him 12 years ago, and remain close to his wife’s family and take a bunch more runs with the core he won a Cup.

But two things happened this week that make a Pietrangelo signing a little more likely in these parts.

For one, Kyle Dubas — feeling direct heat for the first summer in his tenure — began clearing salary-cap space, trading away tangible asset Kasperi Kapanen for futures and wiggle room. The Leafs GM noted afterward that the Kapanen deal “shows us that our players have good value around the league” and did not rule out dealing more players off his roster.

For two, Vladimir Tarasenko’s future in this game has become a giant question mark. Undergoing a third surgery on his shoulder, the explosive winger won’t even been re-evaluated for another five months.

The uncertainty surrounding Tarasenko should give Blues GM Doug Armstrong pause at another major investment on the blue line, where he’s already deep and must re-sign RFA Vince Dunn — at 23, seven years younger than Pietrangelo — for a raise.

Once Dunn is taken care of, does Armstrong not use his available cap room to find some scoring to boost a ho-hum offence that ranked 14th in the regular season and 14th in the post-season?

Armstrong’s words say he’d like Pietrangelo to stay put. His actions have him trading for both Justin Faulk and Marco Scandella during Petro’s contract year and signing each to an extension. Maybe that’s just smart insurance. Maybe it’s a sign.

The bet here is that the Blues do make an offer, but it’ll be lower than the one Pietrangelo could get on the open market. Maybe he takes less to stay where he likes. Hey, Steven Stamkos did.

But if Pietrangelo wants to maximize his next deal, increasingly it feels like that would be elsewhere.

Our defense took a noticeable hit with the loss of Jay Bouwmeester. Subtracting Alex Pietrangelo from an already weakened defense would be disastrous. I will never understand this "we are deep enough on defense let's use our cap room for more scoring" narrative. As for Tarasenko, I love the guy, but we did very well without him all season long. Losing Pietrangelo is a lot worse than losing Tarasenko.

 

[Brockon]

Plus, Schenn is 2-3 years younger, so if we truly want to compare the two, Petro’s comparable contract would be for 5-6 years, not 8.

I'm not sure where you're getting 2-3 years age difference between Schenn and Petro...

Petro born Jan 18, 1990
Schenn born Aug 22, 1991

That's 20 months. I get 2 years younger, but where did you pluck the 3 from? It hardly seems like you looked at their respective ages before throwing this out there...

Plus as @Celtic Note says, as a physical forward, Schenn is going to decline sooner than a player that doesn't rely on physical traits to be an impact player.

I wouldn't be remotely surprised to see Petro be a valuable player (possibly overpaid) for the the last few years of an 8 year deal. Schenn I expect to be viewed as poorly as Steen's contract in the last 3/8 years. Schenn is not going to play up to a 6.5 AAV after age 34, meaning for 2025-2028 he's going to be grossly overpaid for what he provides (ages 34-37 as he turns 37 on Aug 22 of 2028, presumably just after the playoffs end that year).

 

[mk80]

Simply put I will gladly take any drop off in play from Pietrangelo in the last 2-3 years of his contract, paying him for the years we get out of him before that happens.

Not to mention the cap will have definitely risen by then enough to cover a few lower production years at the tail lend of his career.

 

[tfriede2]

I'm not sure where you're getting 2-3 years age difference between Schenn and Petro...

Petro born Jan 18, 1990
Schenn born Aug 22, 1991

That's 20 months. I get 2 years younger, but where did you pluck the 3 from? It hardly seems like you looked at their respective ages before throwing this out there...

Plus as @Celtic Note says, as a physical forward, Schenn is going to decline sooner than a player that doesn't rely on physical traits to be an impact player.

I wouldn't be remotely surprised to see Petro be a valuable player (possibly overpaid) for the the last few years of an 8 year deal. Schenn I expect to be viewed as poorly as Steen's contract in the last 3/8 years. Schenn is not going to play up to a 6.5 AAV after age 34, meaning for 2025-2028 he's going to be grossly overpaid for what he provides (ages 34-37 as he turns 37 on Aug 22 of 2028, presumably just after the playoffs end that year).

Ah, he’s definitely a bit older than I thought. I responded while walking my dog and didn’t look up their respective birthdates. While Petro’s agent will surely use the argument that he’ll age better than someone like Schenn, that’s simply not a given. I agree that it would appear more likely that Petro will age better based on comparables, but who knows. While Petro’s agent will reference the 8- year deal to Schenn, I think DA will focus on their ages at the end of their contracts. Regardless, I think Petro re-signs for 8 years in any deal with the Blues anyway.

 

[BlueKnight]

Some stuff from Elliotte Friedman

St. Louis and Alex Pietrangelo met this week as the grind begins on extension attempts in St. Louis. As I’ve said many times, I believe the captain wants to stay a Blue. But a couple of sources warned that it hasn’t been easy for Pietrangelo to see extensions elsewhere along the lineup (Justin Faulk, Marco Scandella, Brayden Schenn) while his talks completely stalled. A lot of emotion here, and that makes talks more difficult

31 Thoughts: Players make unified anti-racism statement from bubble - Sportsnet.ca

 

[mk80]

Some stuff from Elliotte Friedman



31 Thoughts: Players make unified anti-racism statement from bubble - Sportsnet.ca

Justin Faulk I could see weighing Pietrangelo a bit when it happened.... however I doubt the ones for Scandella and Schenn had much effect on him personally as Scandella was a needed transaction after JBouw's incident, and Schenn is a key piece of the forward core.

 

[bleedblue1223]

If I was Petro, I'd be wondering why I wasn't locked up first though. Captain, leader, top dman. Faulk is obviously a problem, Schenn possibly less so, but even Scandella, that's a piece that could've been found on the free agent market for pretty cheap. Faulk+Scandella pays for Pietrangelo and then some. That's a trade we'd make every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

I'm genuinely worried this plays out like Tavares. Not necessarily that he ends up in Toronto, but they are making moves to free cap, but a situation where everyone believes he'll come back, but it never was actually going to happen.

If Army really did have an ace up his sleeve to create the space for Petro, why didn't he sign Petro first and risk losing one of the other guys? Is there an internal cap number we don't want to go over, we don't want to set a precedent of paying a guy $9M, and we keep O'Reilly as the internal max?

 

[Alklha]

If the reports on how the negotiations have went are accurate? I'd be absolutely furious if I was Pietrangelo. It suggests that Armstrong has handled the entire situation very poorly.

We signed Faulk and Schenn before we even talked to Pietrangelo. If the reports are correct that Pietrangelo basically went into those talks asking for less than Josi? That's an extremely reasonable ask that suggests he wanted a quick negotiation. We didn't make an offer according to McKenzie back at the end of October, no further discussions beyond that brief meeting at the start of October.

Nothing over the break. Nothing until last week. If Pietrangelo has honestly had no idea what is going on, that is unquestionably going to grate on him because it's creating unnecessary uncertainty in his life.

Signing Scandella is absolutely fine if Armstrong has a plan and Pietrangelo knows what's going on. The recent reactions from Pietrangelo certainly don't suggest he knows of any plan. If there is any doubt about Pietrangelo, we don't have to sign Scandella... he's a replaceable player. That $3.25m is valuable.

I think the Faulk signing is the one least likely to annoy Pietrangelo because it was tied to making a trade. Dealing with everyone else before him? Creating unnecessary uncertainty? Potentially lowering an offer because Armstrong dragged his feet when Pietrangelo wanted a quick deal? All those things could annoy Pietrangelo.