The other issue is that I expect he'll want a full NMC for the duration of the deal. How much below "market rate" he is willing to take is partially about legacy, and he'll want control of that.
I expect that Armstrong will be forced to move on his typical position on all three (8 years to a 30 year old, signing bonuses & NMC) if we're going to keep Pietrangelo. Pietrangelo will likely have to move on AAV & structure.
You're right, I didn't even think about no-move clauses. I imagine that both Petro and Army are going into this with the expectation that if a contract gets done, it's to have Petro spend the remainder of his career in STL. I could also see them having equal but opposite feelings on what that means for a NMC in the later years of the contract (Petro feeling more that if that's the plan then it shouldn't be an issue to guarantee it with a NMC, and Army feeling that it's unnecessary and gives him flexibility down the line if something changes).
I doubt it, but I have to wonder if how things play out with Steen this offseason play into that. Steen is in a similar position of having given a lot to the franchise but being in a position that it would help the team if his contract wasn't around. I imagine Army will hang onto Steen (ignoring whatever happens with LTIR) and I hope that lays a framework for a similar contract and situation for Petro in his last years.
They were willing to take on an O'Reilly contract that still had $27.5M in signing bonuses due, though your point stands that neither the Schenn nor the Faulk extensions had so much as a dollar of signing bonus included. If they are as close as the Athletic story indicates (basically less than $1M per year difference) I think this gets done. I just can't see Army refusing to go as high as $8.5M (meeting in the middle) nor can I see him balking on term after what he just gave Schenn and Faulk. With labor peace for the foreseeable future and COVID being the only question mark, I don't think signing bonus holds this up either. As always, I think Army is just holding things close to the vest until he has a better idea of how he is going to free up cap space, either through Vladdi being on IR the full season or moving other pieces without damaging the return because he's already signed a deal that's got him boxed in on cap space.
I agree and I think if it was a sticking point, Petro is absolutely a guy you do what you have to to keep. I think that that likely means he'll get a signing bonus of some kind. I just wonder if ownership might want Army to make sure he's got the reins tight on signing bonuses so that they don't become a new norm since they've been so scarce in the past.
I think it ends up 8 year, 8.5 with a NTC or NMC through the first 4-5 years. I just hope that the discussions are going on and we start to see some trades or clarity on the cap situation soon because I think Army will take care of that before inking a deal. I think when we see trades that'll be an indication that something is done and not that the groundwork is being placed for discussions to start.
