Sportsnet: Pierre Dorion Talks NHL Draft Picks

[Micklebot]

I will repeat, I expected the analytics guys to be all over this thread. No graphs, charts, etc. highlighting picks and probabilities, etc.

Where did everyone go?

I did a post building of Schucker's work on pick value if you're interested. No graphs or anything, just the net sum of all our picks values based on his methodology and how it compares to our previous drafts.

Next I'm planing a regression analysis on book's read by GM to picks success ratios.

 

[Dingle]

I did a post building of Schucker's work on pick value if you're interested. No graphs or anything, just the net sum of all our picks values based on his methodology and how it compares to our previous drafts.

Next I'm planing a regression analysis on book's read by GM to picks success ratios.

So as to minimize the stress on all of us Mick..in a few short words, let us know what you anticipate this years haul to be. So say round 1, Picks anywhere between the #1 overall to say as late as #12. What is your global assessment of picks in the second round. And picks in round 3-6.

If you like, we can be more specific. Say at the start of the 2021/2022 season..that has been a magic season on here. How do you envision the 2020 draft (limited to the Senators) to impact it?

All of the above in the context of global analysis.

 

[Dingle]

interesting article to read

NHL Draft Analytics: A Study of NHL Central Scouting - Neutral Zone

 

[Ice-Tray]

Just to nitpick a bit here, but a few epic runs? What was the 2nd epic run? Are we counting our current epic run for Lafrenierre/Byfield?

Hamburgler and ECF

 

[BondraTime]

Hamburgler and ECF

Hamburgler run was 2 seasons prior to Dorion being named GM

 

[Ice-Tray]

Hamburgler run was 2 seasons prior to Dorion being named GM

Yeah, I figured as much after replying to Mick.

 

[ijif]

I will repeat, I expected the analytics guys to be all over this thread. No graphs, charts, etc. highlighting picks and probabilities, etc.

Where did everyone go?

What exactly are you expecting?

Expected utility calculations are fundamentally flawed when applied to drafts, but they do provide some value, and some of have been posted (I'm pretty sure you posted one), so if you have already read those articles, what exactly are you hoping the "analytic guys" can provide?

Note: I would never define myself as an "analytics guy" based on how it is used in hockey culture.

 

[Micklebot]

Yeah, I figured as much after replying to Mick.

But it was a fun run...lazar eating a hamburger off the ice, Hammond getting mcdonallds for life (later to be downgraded to 1000 buck worth)

 

[Dingle]

What exactly are you expecting?

Expected utility calculations are fundamentally flawed when applied to drafts, but they do provide some value, and some of have been posted (I'm pretty sure you posted one), so if you have already read those articles, what exactly are you hoping the "analytic guys" can provide?

Note: I would never define myself as an "analytics guy" based on how it is used in hockey culture.

I have never come across an analytics guy. I have always wanted to be around a GM and talk hockey, a head coach and talk hockey and an analytics guy and talk hockey/analytics.

So, my good fortune, It seems like you are he. I am glad I found you.

Can you in as concise a manner help me with the following question? If you have 2 first round picks, 3 second round, 1 in the 3rd and a few more in later rounds.. And say they are top heavy, what is your expectations?

Funny thing, I work with a guy, who sent me articles saying, well, it is impossible to predict. That unless your picks are firmly in the top 10, the probability is poor. He felt that second round picks are low percentage as well. Then he added, a further comment. That based upon the last 10 years or so, even draft picks in the top 10, are not exactly a sure fire thing.

He is balking at the rebuild..I explained, I see guys on HF board all the time, criticizing it. He is a doubter...

I don't know what to make of it..Can you arm me with some ammo to get back at him.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Honestly I will never understand Dorion apologists after all the **** ups he's had.

To throw around statements like he's the perfect gm for the rebuild?

Is it appeal to authority or something?

I work hard to understand the Dorion talebearers as well. They never seem to have anything other than “they took away my _____ player” and “only gave me some magic beans or shiny toys” analogies. The sad truth is you can’t fully judge the man until after the rebuild.

Keep spewing the “he should have” or “he could have” scenarios. It doesn’t matter. You will have to wait and see.

No one said he was perfect.

 

[ijif]

He is clearly the best goaltender in this draft by a wide margin & quite possibly the best goaltending prospect in the last few yrs & IMO would be potentially the best goalie in the Sens organization. Look how many teams continue to struggle yr after yr with crappy or mediocre goaltending who lose playoff series because of crappy goaltending at a time when you need it the most. I view a great goaltender as one of the most important positions on the team & having a great goaltender gives a team a much better chance of advancing then having an average goaltender or a regular season good goaltender. He is far & away further ahead of most goalies his age with most analytics, he had a crappy WJC but one tournament should not determine his capability given the WJC is considered a 20 yr old tournament & he was 17 yrs old at the time.

Maybe Hogberg or one of the other goaltenders becomes a good #1 goalie but most analysts agree that Askarov could be elite. Anderson has been a good goalie for Ottawa for yrs but they never went to the SC finals with him, good goalies are not enough IMO. If Ottawa were lucky enough to draft Byfield they would end up with the best centre in this draft & if they were to draft Askarov they would end up with the best goalie in this draft. That IMO would be a successful draft for them in the 1st rd, but you will find that most here disagree, than I again most here disagree with me most of the time anyway, nothing new there.

I can agree with almost every line in this post. Most of the things you are saying are not controversial; however, I think there are some minor problems. I want to be clear, I don't mind the players you listed (except Schneider...I am not a fan), so it would depend on where we are taking, but you seem to want to target these players, essentially, wherever the picks land. I am assuming if we get #1 and #2 you would not select Askarov. Besides that situation, it seems like you want the players you listed no matter what, and that is the problem.

The best goalie in the league right now (measured by goals saved above expected) is James freaking Reimer. Do you want to know how many goals he has saved above expected? Nine! In other words, goalies compress massively around the mean/expectation. The odds are your goalie is not going to be posting good enough numbers to move GF% in a meaningful way compared to the average/expected. Even if you do happen to get a goalie that can post needle-moving numbers (20 GSAx), the odds are he can't do it consistently. For example, last year John Gibson lead the league in GSAx. This year, he is barely above Craig Anderson. The same type of thing can apply to Bobrovsky. Looking at Price's numbers, it is the same thing. He is elite once every three years. There is no way I am taking a player like that if I think there is a top-line forward or top-pairing defender on the board. There is one exception to the above. That exception is Lundqvist. If Asakrov could post numbers like Lundqvist was doing, I'd gladly take him anywhere in the draft.

If you want a young goalie so bad, we should just trade for Georgiev. He is young, plays on a garbage defensive team, and still posts numbers above expected/average.
Why not just take Wallstadt next year in a draft that is not strong in an area we need (high-end forward skill)?

 

[ijif]

I have never come across an analytics guy. I have always wanted to be around a GM and talk hockey, a head coach and talk hockey and an analytics guy and talk hockey/analytics.

So, my good fortune, It seems like you are he. I am glad I found you.

Can you in as concise a manner help me with the following question? If you have 2 first round picks, 3 second round, 1 in the 3rd and a few more in later rounds.. And say they are top heavy, what is your expectations?

Funny thing, I work with a guy, who sent me articles saying, well, it is impossible to predict. That unless your picks are firmly in the top 10, the probability is poor. He felt that second round picks are low percentage as well. Then he added, a further comment. That based upon the last 10 years or so, even draft picks in the top 10, are not exactly a sure fire thing.

He is balking at the rebuild..I explained, I see guys on HF board all the time, criticizing it. He is a doubter...

I don't know what to make of it..Can you arm me with some ammo to get back at him.

It depends on who we select. I don't think looking at expected utility charts gives much information. It doesn't actually show what you want it to show. What you want to know is the probability the player your team selected makes the NHL. Making being defined however your team decides. Corsica had a model that had some things like that, but it is not live. Based on the numbers and watching the players play, I think there are some really good players at the top, but I think there are some players I am concerned about, so it really depends on who we select. With two top ten picks, I am expecting at least a top-six forward/top four-defender level player. I also think we should be able to get a solid player in the second. Again, it is going to depend on who we select. If we can get one top six or top-four level defender with one of the three-second rounders, we should be happy.

I would endorse a rebuild. A rebuild to me is attempting to acquire as many future assets as possible while still icing a respectable team. It is ok to be last, but let's try and avoid getting 2 wins in a year. I've always said a rebuild should be 3 years. In my opinion, this is year two of the rebuild. The first year was wasted because of a prior trade. We can't do anything about that. We should have added one of Byram or Turcotte to our prospect pool, but we added Thomson. I am not a fan of him. I would trade him for a first this year, next year, or a forward prospect. Based on the prospects we have, I think we should be attempting to compete after the 2021 or 2022 NHL draft. I think we have a fair way to go before we can compete, but if we stay the course, draft well, and keep our books in order, we should be able to compete. To me, competing is being able to have at least a 50/50 chance of beating any team in a seven-game series.

 

[Dingle]

It depends on who we select. I don't think looking at expected utility charts gives much information. It doesn't actually show what you want it to show. What you want to know is the probability the player your team selected makes the NHL. Making being defined however your team decides. Corsica had a model that had some things like that, but it is not live. Based on the numbers and watching the players play, I think there are some really good players at the top, but I think there are some players I am concerned about, so it really depends on who we select. With two top ten picks, I am expecting at least a top-six forward/top four-defender level player. I also think we should be able to get a solid player in the second. Again, it is going to depend on who we select. If we can get one top six or top-four level defender with one of the three-second rounders, we should be happy.

I would endorse a rebuild. A rebuild to me is attempting to acquire as many future assets as possible while still icing a respectable team. It is ok to be last, but let's try and avoid getting 2 wins in a year. I've always said a rebuild should be 3 years. In my opinion, this is year two of the rebuild. The first year was wasted because of a prior trade. We can't do anything about that. We should have added one of Byram or Turcotte to our prospect pool, but we added Thomson. I am not a fan of him. I would trade him for a first this year, next year, or a forward prospect. Based on the prospects we have, I think we should be attempting to compete after the 2021 or 2022 NHL draft. I think we have a fair way to go before we can compete, but if we stay the course, draft well, and keep our books in order, we should be able to compete. To me, competing is being able to have at least a 50/50 chance of beating any team in a seven-game series.

thank you

 

[JD1]

I love reading non-fiction books related to my interest, mostly about people and topics that inspire me and I try to take some of the teachings and use it in my personal life! Reading Bourdain's Medium Raw right now and then on to Malcolm Gladwell's Talking to Strangers. Personally I am unaware of any correlation between reading books and being a good gm, I mean these days you likely need to actually be able to read but that's probably about it...still a bizarre response but not really a big deal for me.

I have to read so much for work purposes that when i am not working...it's either mind numbingly stupid TV, my guitar(s) or hockey...playing it or watching it...

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

I'm seeing a lot of praise for a GM who has made some terrible moves and whose team has finished 30th and 31st the last two years and sits 28th this year.

I see a guy who was probably fantastic in his scouting role, but who is completely over his head as an NHL GM.

I think everyone will probably agree that he's a good scout and he's not ready to be a GM. I think the people that "support" him just feel more sympathy for the guy given how hard the situation is. I don't think anyone would do well in that role in the current state of the organization, no management team to help, no front office, no budget, and every thing we've done has been cost-based. He's not the reason we're the worst team in the league, him not having the authority to spend the required amount of cash to keep our stars in Ottawa is the problem.

I think he'd be totally fine as an AGM, or at least if surrounded by competent staff (like Dubas in Toronto). At this point I'm just curious to see if he has the ability to right this ship if he ever actually has the permission to spend to the cap, I kind of think he deserves a chance to be able to do that. However, I obviously wouldn't be disappointed if he was let go and replaced with someone with more experience.

 

[inthewings]

I think everyone will probably agree that he's a good scout and he's not ready to be a GM. I think the people that "support" him just feel more sympathy for the guy given how hard the situation is. I don't think anyone would do well in that role in the current state of the organization, no management team to help, no front office, no budget, and every thing we've done has been cost-based. He's not the reason we're the worst team in the league, him not having the authority to spend the required amount of cash to keep our stars in Ottawa is the problem.

I think he'd be totally fine as an AGM, or at least if surrounded by competent staff (like Dubas in Toronto). At this point I'm just curious to see if he has the ability to right this ship if he ever actually has the permission to spend to the cap, I kind of think he deserves a chance to be able to do that. However, I obviously wouldn't be disappointed if he was let go and replaced with someone with more experience.

I agree with all of this. I actually like Pierre Dorion on a personal level, at least to the extent that I know him through media soundbites. He absolutely has the toughest GM job in the NHL.

I wonder if in the long run he would have had more satisfaction as an AGM largely in charge of the AHL team and amateur scouting or something. He seems to have at least some level of social anxiety, and it's made much worse by the fact that he has to be the public face and voice of what is currently the worst-regarded franchise in the NHL. An AGM job allowing him to hide in the shadows and do something he excels at might have been the better career choice.

 

[Dingle]

I agree with all of this. I actually like Pierre Dorion on a personal level, at least to the extent that I know him through media soundbites. He absolutely has the toughest GM job in the NHL.

I wonder if in the long run he would have had more satisfaction as an AGM largely in charge of the AHL team and amateur scouting or something. He seems to have at least some level of social anxiety, and it's made much worse by the fact that he has to be the public face and voice of what is currently the worst-regarded franchise in the NHL. An AGM job allowing him to hide in the shadows and do something he excels at might have been the better career choice.

this is a portion of a post that Ice-tray did yesterday. It is poignant. Read the last line.
We need to back off on him...The more you read on here, the more tidbits that escape, the more you begin to understand that other factors play..Yes, he makes mistakes. Every General Manager does. Get on the Red Wings site, the Bruins, the Pens..Teams who you would assume are happy as can be...and they are not. Changes are not coming, not in the short run. He will most likely be here. As well as Melnyk. We need to move forward and hope he is as good a draft orchestrator as we are being told. If so, then in 2-4 years, the team's talent should improve and we can then see what..
Again, read the last line. Wake up to that most mornings and see how you feel..for a few years, I did (in a different industry of course).

Difficult is trying to win with crazy budget constraints, and then realizing that you have to trade away all of the fan favourite players for a complete rebuild. You just know that many fans will irrationally hate you from then on.

Pressure starting a rebuild, making a team that will be entirely yours, no predecessor to blame, and hoping that it solidifies your career path instead of spelling the end of it.

Easy, with no pressure, is sitting at home on your phone passing judgement on every transaction, and word, without all of the information, a stake in the game, or a single consequence of any real importance on the line.

We are all the lucky ones, PDs future career in the sport is playing out right now in front of our very eyes.

 

[Sweatred]

I think everyone will probably agree that he's a good scout and he's not ready to be a GM. I think the people that "support" him just feel more sympathy for the guy given how hard the situation is. I don't think anyone would do well in that role in the current state of the organization, no management team to help, no front office, no budget, and every thing we've done has been cost-based. He's not the reason we're the worst team in the league, him not having the authority to spend the required amount of cash to keep our stars in Ottawa is the problem.

I think he'd be totally fine as an AGM, or at least if surrounded by competent staff (like Dubas in Toronto). At this point I'm just curious to see if he has the ability to right this ship if he ever actually has the permission to spend to the cap, I kind of think he deserves a chance to be able to do that. However, I obviously wouldn't be disappointed if he was let go and replaced with someone with more experience.

… and Dubas with the largest analytics staff in the league and elite 1st round skill isn't even in a playoff spot.

 

[BatherSeason]

… and Dubas with the largest analytics staff in the league and elite 1st round skill isn't even in a playoff spot.

Soooo, just because the Leafs, built primarily by someone who was not Dubas, are not in a playoff spot, you believe that have an analytics team in the front office is a bad thing?

I understand that people don't like analytics, but to counter an argument like the one you quoted is basically you stating that Dorion having less staff is a good thing.

I will post this again, and please explain why having the smallest front office in the league is a good thing during a supposed full rebuild?

Hockey Operations, Coaches, Scouts, Training and Medical Staff

 

[Sweatred]

Soooo, just because the Leafs, built primarily by someone who was not Dubas, are not in a playoff spot, you believe that have an analytics team in the front office is a bad thing?

I understand that people don't like analytics, but to counter an argument like the one you quoted is basically you stating that Dorion having less staff is a good thing.

I will post this again, and please explain why having the smallest front office in the league is a good thing during a supposed full rebuild?

Hockey Operations, Coaches, Scouts, Training and Medical Staff

No... that isn't what I said or implied.

 

[BatherSeason]

No... that isn't what I said or implied.

Sorry, just seemed like it was a swipe at Leafs management and analytics. Just not sure where you were going with it.

The Leafs biggest issue was that they spent a good chunk of the season giving Cody Ceci way too many minutes than needed, but that's for another thread.

 

[Sweatred]

Sorry, just seemed like it was a swipe at Leafs management and analytics. Just not sure where you were going with it.

The Leafs biggest issue was that they spent a good chunk of the season giving Cody Ceci way too many minutes than needed, but that's for another thread.

My point was to highlight how difficult the roll of GM can be to produce a winning team. Dubas has as much going for him as anyone, most GM's would exchange roster/problems with him but his success is precarious at best.

 

[aragorn]

I can agree with almost every line in this post. Most of the things you are saying are not controversial; however, I think there are some minor problems. I want to be clear, I don't mind the players you listed (except Schneider...I am not a fan), so it would depend on where we are taking, but you seem to want to target these players, essentially, wherever the picks land. I am assuming if we get #1 and #2 you would not select Askarov. Besides that situation, it seems like you want the players you listed no matter what, and that is the problem.

The best goalie in the league right now (measured by goals saved above expected) is James freaking Reimer. Do you want to know how many goals he has saved above expected? Nine! In other words, goalies compress massively around the mean/expectation. The odds are your goalie is not going to be posting good enough numbers to move GF% in a meaningful way compared to the average/expected. Even if you do happen to get a goalie that can post needle-moving numbers (20 GSAx), the odds are he can't do it consistently. For example, last year John Gibson lead the league in GSAx. This year, he is barely above Craig Anderson. The same type of thing can apply to Bobrovsky. Looking at Price's numbers, it is the same thing. He is elite once every three years. There is no way I am taking a player like that if I think there is a top-line forward or top-pairing defender on the board. There is one exception to the above. That exception is Lundqvist. If Asakrov could post numbers like Lundqvist was doing, I'd gladly take him anywhere in the draft.

If you want a young goalie so bad, we should just trade for Georgiev. He is young, plays on a garbage defensive team, and still posts numbers above expected/average.
Why not just take Wallstadt next year in a draft that is not strong in an area we need (high-end forward skill)?

Good post. First, I think I have been quite consistent in saying that if Ottawa should end up in the 1st or 2nd place in this yr's draft than they should select one of the top two guys. I like Byfield but if they selected Lafreniere I would be fine with that as well. Second, I expect that the SJ pick will be around 10th to 15th & of course Askarov is ranked somewhere around there give or take & I would prefer him over anyone else in that range.

I know most want a skilled forward with that pick, I differ that way. I'm going to assume you're an analytics guy (are you?) but I'm not & could care less what other goalies are doing, none of that matters since every person is somewhat different & unique & IMO is quite irrelevant. No one knows how Askarov will turn out, it's all speculation including on my part, as it is with any & most players who are not considered elite & can't miss. Any one of those forwards people want could turn into Puljujarvi or any number of busts from the past too, we just don't know, every pick is a risk to some degree. Nobody wanted Pinto & he has been great in his first yr in college & how many didn't want Tkachuk & he has been great for this team & franchise?

When I mention certain players to draft it's because I prefer those players over some of the others on the board, Ottawa has rarely ever selected players I have wanted them to with the one exception in Tkachuk last yr. There are players I like for specific purposes & while I mostly agree with the BPA philosophy I sometimes prefer a player of need when they are available & I believe they could be a very good player for this franchise. Is it any different from anyone else other than they want someone else who I might not want? Also in case you haven't noticed, I have always preferred a bigger tougher team & am opposed to most of these small soft forwards, we have a few I would like to see traded in Balcers, Abramov & Davidsson. Of course, you need a balance of everything in hockey & if Ottawa were to select a small skilled forward like Hoffman who I liked, I would be fine with that if he became a consistent point producer. Thanks for your response & thanks for being respectful even though we don't agree on everything. Have a great day.

 

[bert]

I work hard to understand the Dorion talebearers as well. They never seem to have anything other than “they took away my _____ player” and “only gave me some magic beans or shiny toys” analogies. The sad truth is you can’t fully judge the man until after the rebuild.

Keep spewing the “he should have” or “he could have” scenarios. It doesn’t matter. You will have to wait and see.

No one said he was perfect.

He dealt from a position of weakness in every single scenario. He tanked without the teams first round pick based on a trade he made, then he patronized the fan base after dealing said players. The team is poised for a bottom 2 finish for the third year in a row. If you dont understand why that is not a good thing or why people are unhappy about it then I am not sure what to tell you. The attendance alone should help you understand why there are Dorion talebearers. Obviously its not easy working for Melnyk but that doesnt excuse everything he has done.

 

[Sweatred]

He dealt from a position of weakness in every single scenario. He tanked without the teams first round pick based on a trade he made, then he patronized the fan base after dealing said players. The team is poised for a bottom 2 finish for the third year in a row. If you dont understand why that is not a good thing or why people are unhappy about it then I am not sure what to tell you. The attendance alone should understand why there are Dorion talebearers. Obviously its not easy working for Melnyk but that doesnt excuse everything he has done.

1. No he did not deal from a position of weakness in every situation. He traded at the deadline, in the summer etc. etc.
2. Trading away star UFA's is not tanking. It is asset management. What would you have him do ? Trade picks to boost the roster knowing all the UFA's are headed for the US anyway?
3. What you call "patronize" I would call a fair trade analysis. Just because you don't see the value in the EK, MD, or even Stone trade doesn't mean he was patronizing fans celebrating the trades.