Phoenix, worst case scenario

[BrianL*]

I would think it would look better for the league to sell a team to an Owner in a market they really don't want (ie, Winnipeg) to avoid a team completely failing and being folded.

Still with the anti-Winnipeg rhetoric.

Do you have any... ANY evidence beyond your own bitterness that this is how the NHL perceives a market with great owners and a fan base that guarantees sellouts for 5 years within minutes of the opportunity? A resounding endorsement from the NHL executives and a unanimous vote from the BOG, that's all just a facade to cover up the wailing and retching behind the scenes, right?

I think you've inhaled too many unburned hydrocarbons over there in Giedi Prime.

 

[SoCalShark]

Pre-season games aren't to test anything...otherwise London, Ontario would have a team already. They sellout preseason games and tickets go for like $80 to $120 a seat.

That was not my point, meaning that KC was mentioned as a relocation spot for Islanders and the Penguins, since the lock-out. Houston was a possible relocation spot for the Oilers some time ago. London, Ontario has never been mentioned individually except when discussing Southern Ontario as a whole. Pre-season games that have occurred on a regular basis in non-NHL locations like Quebec and Las Vegas which have been mentioned as relocation targets. Sharks and Kings have had pre-season games in California cities with similar populations as London, Ontario.

London, Ont. - 352,395
Fresno, CA - 502,303
Bakersfield, CA - 347,483
Sacramento, CA - 466,488
Ontario, CA - 170,373

I was referring to locations that have not had annual pre-season games that have been mentioned as relocation targets now having a pre-season game this year. The 2009 NY Islander / King game in KC was rumored to be a market test for Wang.

 

[cbcwpg]

I really can't see the NHL folding a single team...it would have to be two. I would think it would look better for the league to sell a team to an Owner in a market they really don't want (ie, Winnipeg) to avoid a team completely failing and being folded.

...

Let's stop beating around the bush here...it's not the NHL (who just voted to unanimously allow Winnipeg in the club) that doesn't want a team in Winnipeg.. It's YOU.

I want you to post a link to a genuine article where the NHL is quoted as saying " We really don't want Winnipeg ".

The other thing I want is every other city from now on that is looking at getting a team has to have a ticket drive like Winnipeg. Don't care if it's in Canada or the U.S.... Show me the money.

As far as Phoenix... We all know the what the worst case is... Pack your bags.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Quebec City

Quebec City is an interesting alternative. Quebecor and Pierre Karl Peladeau have the money. Their media and communications networks and interests would synergize well with an NHL team especially given that their main competition synergizes well with the Canadiens. Bell their main competitor has naming rights to the arena and the training complex.Also Quebecor and PKP were in the running to the end to buy the Canadiens and are respected by the NHL.

The arena issue is a stumbling block. Gary Bettman and the NHL are not an obstacle to a team playing a season or two at the Colisee while a new arena is built. The QMJHL Remparts are since the terms of their lease may preclude such an arrangement. So they may have to be satisfied. Flashback to the 1967 expansion and the WHL Blades did not allow the Kings access to the existing arena, so Jack Kent Cooke had to build one with games being played in Long Beach until the new arena was built. There is no suitable alternative to Le Colisee in the Quebec City area. Gary Bettman cannot change this reality.

The same is true for the various Ontario cities outside the Buffalo, Toronto and Detroit protected territories. London or Kitchener are options and existing small arenas may be acceptable/modifiable for a season or two but if the QHL team has exclusivity then there is a problem.

Getting back to the possible arena in Quebec City. The major problem is not the financing or the building of the arena, rather it is profitability.An NHL team requires at best 60 dates a season.Plenty of ice time to practice is available elsewhere. What do you do with an NHL quality arena during the remaining 305 days of the year? Forget NBA, Arena Football they are not happening. Touring music shows etc are difficult due to isolation. The city is basically three hours outside Montreal and not on a road to another large venue so touring events would tend to lose a date if they go to Quebec City unlike say Albany or any similar or smaller sized USA cities that are accessible by various interstates and within two hours of other usable venues.

This leaves little in terms of available events for the remaining dates.

 

[sh724]

KC has had 6 or 7 preseason games in the last 10 years a game being there this year does not mean much in terms of possible relocation

 

[HansH]

Just thinking out loud, what other substancial cities support hockey. I checked the AHL attendance for the past season, this is the stats from TheAHL.com:

http://theahl.com/stats/schedule.php?view=attendance&season_id=34

Hershey avg 9,800
Manitoba avg 8,404
Chicago avg 7,453
Providence avg 40 7,324
Grand Rapids avg 7,241
Lake Erie 0 avg 6,568
San Antonio avg 6,411
W-B/Scranton avg 6,360
Houston avg 6,326
Charlotte avg 6,312

The bolded markets look to have decent levels of support for AHL level hockey, and all have arenas that would be NHL sized as they host NBA teams (all three AHL teams are in these buildings so I assume they would have a decent hockey layout). So, there are buildings and existing fan support one level below the NHL, if an owner can be scared up in these locations there may be a possibility of making a go of it (I personally have a soft spot for San Antonio, I really like that city).

San Antonio is NOT an NHL-sized arena -- it was built specifically for the NBA, and the ice is pushed to one end of the arena, meaning wide swaths of seats are pushed back or unavailable when hockey is played there -- think the pre-Glendale Phoenix arena with all its obstructed-view seats. It's a lovely city, but a non-starter for the NHL.

 

[Buck Aki Berg]

KC has had 6 or 7 preseason games in the last 10 years a game being there this year does not mean much in terms of possible relocation

How many preseason games did Winnipeg have?

It's by no means the be-all-and-end-all of indicators, but cities aren't picked for exhibition games by throwing darts at a map. If anything, the high number of exhibition games shows serious consideration - you don't hold one game and base your judgement off of that, you keep going back to see if interest is sustained.

 

[HansH]

(ECHL Vegas has only a 3000 seat venue; they have $3 "day of game walk up" seats available.)

Thoroughly and completely incorrect - and I say this having attended multiple games at the Orleans area. It is by no means NHL-sized, absolutely, but c'mon, a quick lookup would show that the team AVERAGED 3,940 last season, and 4,350 the year before, giving the lie to the "3000-seat venue" nonsense.

The hockey capacity for the Orleans arena is actually 7,773 (indoor football capacity is 9,008).

 

[Killion]

This leaves little in terms of available events for the remaining dates.

A little OT, however, I certainly do understand & empathize with the difficulties in terms of booking non-hockey event dates in QC. You basically lose 2-3 days in a tour schedule however the scenery up there?, well, lets just say she more than more than makes up for it mon ami'.

Youve also got a pretty substantial francophone entertainment & recording industry almost exclusive to the province, some incredible talent, that could either fill or come close to filling an arena. Toss in the odd anglo act & Bob's your Uncle. Add Quebecor's media interests to a return of the "Diques'" and it'd just have to be successful.

Excellent point re; the Remparts. Thats Patrick Roy no?. Any plans for a second smaller arena anywhere?. Perhaps Quebecor in conjunction with the Remparts, City & Province could build out le petite caban or whatever for the Remparts & practice facility for the NHL team, or does not one already exist?.

 

[tiredman]

A little OT, however, I certainly do understand & empathize with the difficulties in terms of booking non-hockey event dates in QC. You basically lose 2-3 days in a tour schedule however the scenery up there?, well, lets just say she more than more than makes up for it mon ami'.

Youve also got a pretty substantial francophone entertainment & recording industry almost exclusive to the province, some incredible talent, that could either fill or come close to filling an arena. Toss in the odd anglo act & Bob's your Uncle. Add Quebecor's media interests to a return of the "Diques'" and it'd just have to be successful.

Excellent point re; the Remparts. Thats Patrick Roy no?. Any plans for a second smaller arena anywhere?. Perhaps Quebecor in conjunction with the Remparts, City & Province could build out le petite caban or whatever for the Remparts & practice facility for the NHL team, or does not one already exist?.

The Remparts owners have already said publicly they support a new NHL team in Quebec. Right now, they have a deal in place to play in the old colisée for the next couple years (don't remember exactly how many) but for sure, they would move to the new arena when it would be built. Even in the binding agreement with Quebecor for the new arena, it's already planned the Remparts will play in that building too.

As for the old colisée :
-If the city decides to move forward with the Olympic bid for 2022, the city will keep it.
-If the city decides not to, they'll either sell it or demolish it after the new one gets built.

As for booking events for the colisée :
-43 games for the Remparts/year
-48 games for the NHL team/year
-40 non hockey events (that's the number of events happening on the old colisee right now)

That's 131 days already. And I'm not including all events Quebecor wants to bring to that arena...

 

[Canadiens1958]

Remparts

A little OT, however, I certainly do understand & empathize with the difficulties in terms of booking non-hockey event dates in QC. You basically lose 2-3 days in a tour schedule however the scenery up there?, well, lets just say she more than more than makes up for it mon ami'.

Youve also got a pretty substantial francophone entertainment & recording industry almost exclusive to the province, some incredible talent, that could either fill or come close to filling an arena. Toss in the odd anglo act & Bob's your Uncle. Add Quebecor's media interests to a return of the "Diques'" and it'd just have to be successful.

Excellent point re; the Remparts. Thats Patrick Roy no?. Any plans for a second smaller arena anywhere?. Perhaps Quebecor in conjunction with the Remparts, City & Province could build out le petite caban or whatever for the Remparts & practice facility for the NHL team, or does not one already exist?.

Perhaps you have a point about a distinct thread. Would not object to a spin-off.

Yes the Remparts are Patrick Roy, Jacques Tanguay,etc but there is a little obstacle - Power Corp which has minority interests in the Remparts since early 2011.

http://www.montrealgazette.com/sports/Power+Corp+buys+stake+Quebec+Remparts/4353644/story.html

Do not see Quebecor and Power Corp working together.

BTW the Remparts draw around 400,000 paid per season the last few years, around upwards of 12,000 per game. You are close to an NHL sized venue in terms of requirements. When the Nordiques entered the NHL in 1979-80 it was the start of the end of the original Remparts franchise in the Q.

Quebec music cannot draw enough to justify going to some of the larger arenas in places like Sherbrooke, Shawinigan and Chicoutimi. Then you have the equipment problem since the acts only have equipment suitable for small cozy venues.

 

[Killion]

More problems then. Between PowerCorp & that former Mayoralty Candidate playing Goldwater Institute whats a body to do?; and Wow. I had no idea the Remparts were drawing that many. C'est fantastique'!.. I guess building out le petite caban would be woefully inadequate huh?.

 

[Klaus]

Pre-season games aren't to test anything...otherwise London, Ontario would have a team already. They sellout preseason games and tickets go for like $80 to $120 a seat.

Whatup Jeffrey. Where you been lately? Busy picking out women's clothing for your dog?

 

[RandR]

Yet thats the position there in; thats the reality on the ground in Phoenix; thats the reality if the franchise is eventually sold for relocation; thats precisely what there doing. Gary Bettman told the BOG's that this adventure wouldnt cost them a dime. The price tag as of right now is app. $202M & climbing.

...

Even if Bettman told the BoG that they wouldn't lose money by assuming ownership of the Coyotes (I have my doubts that is true in the first place), that doesn't mean he will be able to deliver on any such promise.

Sure, the league can stick whatever asking price they want on the club. However, ultimately what they will get for the Coyotes would only climb if there are one or more interested and acceptable buyer(s) willing to pay that higher price. If there isn't anyone prepared to pay it, then inflating that price becomes pointless.

If my wife starts telling me "don't worry whatever money we are sinking into the repairs of our 12-year-old second car will be recovered because we'll just ask more for it when we sell it, then that's when I know I need a new car (or a new wife ).

 

[LeftCoast]

Unless there is a deal with Hulsizer all but done, just waiting to work out the final details, the NHL will almost certainly recruit another outside stalking horse bid to play the role of TNSE.

The only reason the CoG ponied up another $25M is because their was a real threat that the team would move. TNSE is now out of the picture. I'm not sure if Hulsizer is in or out of the picture at this point. The NHL needs both another white knight - buyer willing to keep the team in Glendale, and another stalking horse - buyer wanting to relocate.

As for the relocation option, there are not many cities that have an NHL ready arena that could be readied to host NHL games in October of 2012. Kansas City, Portland and Hamilton are the only options I can think of (I suppose Atlanta has an NHL arena, but that won't fly). IF the league wanted to put a 2nd team in GTA, then the Air Canada Centre could host another team. There are also number of cities with arenas that could temporarily host NHL games. I think the Delta Center in Salt Lake City has a capacity of about 14,000 for hockey. The Tacoma Dome could host an NHL sized crowd for a season or so. Finally, Colisée Pepsi in Quebec City could temporarily host an NHL team.

So I think that pretty much frames the options.

 

[Killion]

Even if Bettman told the BoG that they wouldn't lose money by assuming ownership of the Coyotes (I have my doubts that is true in the first place), that doesn't mean he will be able to deliver on any such promise.

It was widely reported & confirmed, discussed at length on these threads.

The NHL will almost certainly recruit another outside stalking horse bid to play the role of TNSE......So I think that pretty much frames the options.

As of a few weeks ago Hulsizer was still hanging in there, however as of late?. No idea..... In addition to he aforementioned locations, in a squeeze or ready now (but all absent any owners to play the Stalking Horse or not), Oklahoma & Hartford could pull it together, Cincinnati another intriguing possible destination. That rumor about a group interested in Seattle just might grow legs....

 

[Kitsune]

did anyone else notice the the Coyotes are playing a preseason game at Reliant in Houston against the Stars? Seems like an interesting spot for a hockey game.

 

[Melrose Munch]

Whatup Jeffrey. Where you been lately? Busy picking out women's clothing for your dog?

 

[Melrose Munch]

It was widely reported & confirmed, discussed at length on these threads.



As of a few weeks ago Hulsizer was still hanging in there, however as of late?. No idea..... In addition to he aforementioned locations, in a squeeze or ready now (but all absent any owners to play the Stalking Horse or not), Oklahoma & Hartford could pull it together, Cincinnati another intriguing possible destination. That rumor about a group interested in Seattle just might grow legs....

Cincy or Seattle would be nice. Houston should be number 1

 

[Canadiens1958]

Arenas

Unless there is a deal with Hulsizer all but done, just waiting to work out the final details, the NHL will almost certainly recruit another outside stalking horse bid to play the role of TNSE.

The only reason the CoG ponied up another $25M is because their was a real threat that the team would move. TNSE is now out of the picture. I'm not sure if Hulsizer is in or out of the picture at this point. The NHL needs both another white knight - buyer willing to keep the team in Glendale, and another stalking horse - buyer wanting to relocate.

As for the relocation option, there are not many cities that have an NHL ready arena that could be readied to host NHL games in October of 2012. Kansas City, Portland and Hamilton are the only options I can think of (I suppose Atlanta has an NHL arena, but that won't fly). IF the league wanted to put a 2nd team in GTA, then the Air Canada Centre could host another team. There are also number of cities with arenas that could temporarily host NHL games. I think the Delta Center in Salt Lake City has a capacity of about 14,000 for hockey. The Tacoma Dome could host an NHL sized crowd for a season or so. Finally, Colisée Pepsi in Quebec City could temporarily host an NHL team.

So I think that pretty much frames the options.

Temporary, suitable arenas in the USA are easy to find. Albany, NY has the Times Union Center which seats 15 500 for hockey and it is outside the radius restrictions of NHL teams. Likewise NBA venues outside radius restrictions with the requisite refrigeration. Even the ECHL team in Grenville, SC plays in an arena that seats close to 14,000. Check the interstates and you will find other options.

Question remains, "Can the local economy and population support an NHL team in these USA locations?"

Short answer seems to be no. Nashville struggled and is still far from guaranteed to stay and they did not have NBA or MLB teams drawing dollars. Atlanta failed in a four sport market. Florida is struggling in a four sport market, Tampa Bay likewise in a three sport market. Buffalo, and Pittsburgh have had challenges in three sport markets. In both instances one of the sports is weak - Pirates in Pittsburgh, Bills are looking at options - Toronto, LA.

Effectively you have a lose-lose situation. In the USA, cities with venues that can host an NHL team present negatives about the viability of the team. In Canada an NHL team would be viable in certain locations as long as the Canadian dollar sustains but building an appropriate arena and making it viable year round is a major stumbling block.

 

[LeftCoast]

Cincy or Seattle would be nice. Houston should be number 1

I forgot about Houston. The Toyota Center is ready made and seats 17,800 for hockey.

Temporary, suitable arenas in the USA are easy to find. Albany, NY has the Times Union Center which seats 15 500 for hockey and it is outside the radius restrictions of NHL teams. Likewise NBA venues outside radius restrictions with the requisite refrigeration. Even the ECHL team in Grenville, SC plays in an arena that seats close to 14,000. Check the interstates and you will find other options.

Question remains, "Can the local economy and population support an NHL team in these USA locations?"

Short answer seems to be no.

I omitted relocation options where the markets / population / economy are too small to support the NHL.


The way I see it:

For ready to move in, permanent options there are Kansas City, Portland, Hamilton (needs renovations), Toronto (politics aside) and Houston.

For temporary locations while a permanent facility is being built there are Seattle, Salt Lake City, Quebec City and maybe a few others. Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Baltimore are probably too close to existing markets for my liking.

 

[Fidel Astro]

Best case scenario, in my opinion, would be Quebec, as there's an obviously passionate fanbase (I think they'd do similar to Winnipeg in a season ticket pre-sale) and at least some kind of arena planning in the works. Obviously they need to sort that out a little better before anything happens, but if they can get that going, I think Quebec is the best choice.

Really, though, the "worst case" for the Coyotes would be to stay in Phoenix. Unless something completely unexpected happens, I can't see the team finding a legitimate owner... and even if they do, it seems unlikely that the team will make any money.

At least a move (to anywhere) would get them out of that money pit in Arizona.

 

[sh724]

How many preseason games did Winnipeg have?

It's by no means the be-all-and-end-all of indicators, but cities aren't picked for exhibition games by throwing darts at a map. If anything, the high number of exhibition games shows serious consideration - you don't hold one game and base your judgement off of that, you keep going back to see if interest is sustained.

I dont think hosting preseason games mean anything. The average fan is not going to go to a preseason game to watch mostly minor league players especially for a team they have no connection to. The only people that really go to these games are some of the hardcore fans and people who want to do something different. One preseason game a year no matter how many years you do it will never give a good indication of market viability.

 

[goyotes]

As of yesterday Hulsizer was still in negotiations to purchase the Coyotes, at least according to the Arizona Republic. Also, the negotiations seemed to be focused upon MH and the NHL, and over the sale price for the team. There was a suggestion he would be willing to pay $110 M. Not sure what response the NHL has had to MH's offer, and whether any funding from the CoG is still a part of the ultimate price the NHL would receive.

The CoG city council had an executive meeting last night to be updated on the Coyote's situation. Also, there was a hearing before the trial judge on the GWI's records request case. And, Judge Burke who was hearing the case ... just retired from the bench yesterday. He may, or may not, rule on the GWI's request. This clearly has a life of its own at this point. The mere fact a thread exists with the title "Phoenix, worst case scenario" is telling. I submit the worst case scenario is the one being lived by hockey fans in AZ. At least ATL had some closure.

 

[Killion]

I submit the worst case scenario is the one being lived by hockey fans in AZ. At least ATL had some closure.

Not much of a (closure) one though. Still all kinds of finger-pointing, acrimony, rumors & innuendo's swirling around that crater.... If Gary Bettman remains true to his words that "Atlanta was a one-off" then all this talk about viable relo options could well be moot, and hope still floats the boat in Phoenix...... Thanks for the update, and any idea what the ST's renewal rates are at for 2011-12?.