Phoenix CXXXIV: 3 Sheets To The Wind

[TheLegend]

There is where context is king. Phoenix is now 5th in population, but only within the city limits. The population of the entire metro is what determines the real value of a 'city''s population, otherwise, Miami wouldn't be on the radar of the leagues since it has ~7% of the population of the South Florida metro within its city limits. Measuring core city's population while ignoring the metro seems more like a counterproductive exercise when it comes to major league sports economics.

Checking the DMAs, Phoenix is 12th for 2017-18, around where it's been for a while. Can't find the MSAs, but Phoenix is unlikely to be that high (5th) since the metro would have to absolutely soar in population to jump up so many positions on the high end.

Per Wiki.... List of metropolitan statistical areas - Wikipedia

Phoenix is ranked 11th by 2017 estimates. But it doesn't specify how many cities outside of Phoenix and Scottsdale are included. Until you go to this page....

Phoenix metropolitan area - Wikipedia

If you want to really dig up every city population defined within the metro area then be my guest. But the overall estimate is pretty close. However.... it is also one of the fastest growing metros in the US as noted by this on the page..

It is also one of the fastest growing major metropolitan areas, gaining nearly 400,000 residents from 2010 to 2015, and more than 1.3 million since 2000. The population of the Phoenix Metropolitan Area increased by 45.3% from 1990 through 2000, compared to the average United States rate of 13.2%, helping to make Arizona the second fastest growing state in the nation in the 1990s (the fastest was Nevada).[4] The 2000 Census reported the population of the metropolitan area to be 3,251,876.

 

[MNNumbers]

Houston was previously a no-go zone for the NHL despite their desire to be in that market. It has since opened up. I would not bet money on QC getting the team over an extremely large US metro area flush with corporate cash.

I appreciate the input, XX.

I wonder if you have heard something we haven't. About 6 weeks ago, Fertitta, the new owner in Houston, make some public comments that were not positive about the NHL in Southern cities. That has led us to conclude that Houston may not be as 'open' as we thought. In other words, it may lie in the Portland category, where the owner would like to have a team, but not at the current price point.

Do you know something more about it?

Thanks.

 

[cbcwpg]

Does population or population potential really mean anything when people in Phoenix have been complaining about drive times to the games for as long as I can remember, which is the whole " we need the arena in a better location close to our fans so people will attend the games and we will make more money " party line from the team and the league?

Not saying bigger isn't better... like having 10,000,000 people to draw from VS 5,000,000 … but those extra 5,000,000 people are obviously going to be living farther from your arena being that a bigger city is obviously spread out more... so unless you can convince those people to make the trip, having those potential fans sounds good, but may not really mean much.

 

[MNNumbers]

Does population or population potential really mean anything when people in Phoenix have been complaining about drive times to the games for as long as I can remember, which is the whole " we need the arena in a better location close to our fans so people will attend the games and we will make more money " party line from the team and the league?

Not saying bigger isn't better... like having 10,000,000 people to draw from VS 5,000,000 … but those extra 5,000,000 people are obviously going to be living farther from your arena being that a bigger city is obviously spread out more... so unless you can convince those people to make the trip, having those potential fans sounds good, but may not really mean much.

The idea behind the population center has never been about the local teams and its fan base. The idea behind not leaving a large metro center is the ever-elusive national broadcast contract.

Of course, there are 2 sides to that argument as well. To wit, does it really matter if there is a team in Phoenix if the ratings are very small? Does that increase the amount that NBC or whoever will pay for the next media contract?

In truth, with the advent of mobile, the whole idea of the TV contract may have to change anyway.

Interesting times....

 

[Skidooboy]

You’re basically repeating what we already knew. It didn’t take much to figure out what the plan was.

However given what been presented to us since 2009, I have to call into question what a “suitable buyer” is. That’s the $650 million dollar question in 2018.

Houston was previously a no-go zone for the NHL despite their desire to be in that market. It has since opened up. I would not bet money on QC getting the team over an extremely large US metro area flush with corporate cash.

same answer to both.

Arena, Market, and Owner only QC has all three standing around waiting ready right now.
That is an insurance policy the NHL wants to keep in its back pocket, there are more teams than Phoenix on the brink. the yotes are just the closest to the edge.

Houston would be given an expansion, or perhaps another struggling team like Carolina, or the Panthers.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

Arena, Market, and Owner only QC has all three standing around waiting ready right now.

QC has the Arena, Fans, and Owner. What's at issue is whether they have the Market, in this case meaning Money and Longevity. And that's why the NHL hasn't gone there yet, and it's also why the Coyotes won't go there except in case of the absolute last resort.

 

[MNNumbers]

I would suggest that the size of the city, and the resultant risk of long-term consistency being missing, and definitel concerns.

Another concern, in my mind, is geography.

 

[TheLegend]

same answer to both.

Arena, Market, and Owner only QC has all three standing around waiting ready right now.
That is an insurance policy the NHL wants to keep in its back pocket, there are more teams than Phoenix on the brink. the yotes are just the closest to the edge.

Houston would be given an expansion, or perhaps another struggling team like Carolina, or the Panthers.

You’ve left out one piece of data that plays a huge part in this.

If the Coyotes were to end up moving it won’t be to an Eastern Conference location. Which is why Houston plays into it instead of QC.

Carolina is going nowhere. Neither is Florida. The only team remotely on the brink in the east is Ottawa. And even that’s sketchy in itself.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

same answer to both.

Arena, Market, and Owner only QC has all three standing around waiting ready right now.
That is an insurance policy the NHL wants to keep in its back pocket, there are more teams than Phoenix on the brink. the yotes are just the closest to the edge.

Houston would be given an expansion, or perhaps another struggling team like Carolina, or the Panthers.

Florida and Carolina are a no go...as MNN has stated several times in reference to the Panthers the county is involved in the arena and it is virtually financially impossible to break any lease there....

also, the reason why is the conference imbalance, there are still 15 West franchises.... and Seattle is in line for the 16th and 32nd one as has been discussed in that thread and its related threads and there's no other franchise "in trouble"

Houston has little interest in an expansion bid... Fertiita's net worth since acquiring Toyota Center and that comes with the Rockets then is in question.... that's why Houston wasn't an option under Alexander, and is less inclined as the months pass is Fertitta willing to take on another franchise/sport when he just got the Rockets....

 

[Mightygoose]

Though I agree Quebec was front of the line for the Coyotes at one time but the landscape has changed since 2009.

I seemed to have changed in late 2012/early 2013 shortly after the Hansen MOU was approved which moved Seattle further in the conversation. Though the SoDo plan ultimately failed and another path has opened up for that market, it was the rumoured landing spot if Glendale voted no to the AMF.

With Seattle almost off the board (plus Vegas), Fertitta buying the Rockets has opened up that market as a landing spot which I think the league won't mind pulling the trigger if they get to the end of the rope in AZ.

Depends on price point of course. If they can't reach a deal then Quebec is next. By the Seattle is green lit, it opens up possiblies....one that already has a historical presedence.

 

[Cor]

In my opinion, barring something crazy happening like the Coyotes getting an arena in Phoenix proper, the best course of action is for the team to find an investor in Houston and move the team there.

With Seattle entering the league, a team will need to move from the Pacific over to the Central.

As a Canadian, I want a team in Quebec City as well, however I think that will only happen if the league decides to expand to 34 teams, OR, a Florida or Carolina, get into such poor financial states that they need to sell.

 

[mesamonster]

In my opinion, barring something crazy happening like the Coyotes getting an arena in Phoenix proper, the best course of action is for the team to find an investor in Houston and move the team there.

With Seattle entering the league, a team will need to move from the Pacific over to the Central.

As a Canadian, I want a team in Quebec City as well, however I think that will only happen if the league decides to expand to 34 teams, OR, a Florida or Carolina, get into such poor financial states that they need to sell.

Makes good sense, the issue investors like Fertitta have is not only the price but the potential that they may have to share the franchise with Barroway. No investor is going to want to commit cash into a partnership with an individual who brings little to nothing to the table.

 

[Jets4Life]

Houston has little interest in an expansion bid... Fertiita's net worth since acquiring Toyota Center and that comes with the Rockets then is in question.... that's why Houston wasn't an option under Alexander, and is less inclined as the months pass is Fertitta willing to take on another franchise/sport when he just got the Rockets....

That is not correct:

"The owner of the NBA's Rockets has expressed interest in bringing an NHL franchise to Houston, but is proceeding cautiously.
Tilman Fertitta posted on his verified Twitter account Thursday that he would be open to the possibility of acquiring an NHL team, but stressed it must be a deal that works for all parties concerned.
"As I've mentioned before, I'm very interested in the possibility of bringing the NHL to Houston, but it will have to be a deal that works for my organization, the city, fans of the NHL throughout the region and the NHL Board of Governors," said Fertitta, who bought the Rockets in September. "We are in the early stages of evaluating what opportunities may exist but look forward to a thorough process."

Houston Rockets owner 'very interested' in bringing NHL team to city | CBC Sports

---

"Fertitta told KPRC2 on Tuesday, "There's different opportunities and we're kind of looking at all the different opportunities. I'm not going to make something happen if it doesn't feel right, but we're on top of it. We talk about it every day. It could happen in a year. It might not happen for five years. But I think it will happen one day. But it has to be the right opportunity."

"But the people that live in Houston and with all the transplants we have from the north and east, deserve an NHL team. We are the fourth-largest city in America and I would love to have a team here," Fertitta said. "The National Hockey League is continuing to grow. It's getting better and better. Their fan appeal is getting better and better. And I'm going to do whatever I can to get (a team) here in the next few years."

Houston NHL expansion team dreams delayed after Seattle files application

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

That is not correct:

"The owner of the NBA's Rockets has expressed interest in bringing an NHL franchise to Houston, but is proceeding cautiously.
Tilman Fertitta posted on his verified Twitter account Thursday that he would be open to the possibility of acquiring an NHL team, but stressed it must be a deal that works for all parties concerned.
"As I've mentioned before, I'm very interested in the possibility of bringing the NHL to Houston, but it will have to be a deal that works for my organization, the city, fans of the NHL throughout the region and the NHL Board of Governors," said Fertitta, who bought the Rockets in September. "We are in the early stages of evaluating what opportunities may exist but look forward to a thorough process."

Houston Rockets owner 'very interested' in bringing NHL team to city | CBC Sports

---

"Fertitta told KPRC2 on Tuesday, "There's different opportunities and we're kind of looking at all the different opportunities. I'm not going to make something happen if it doesn't feel right, but we're on top of it. We talk about it every day. It could happen in a year. It might not happen for five years. But I think it will happen one day. But it has to be the right opportunity."

"But the people that live in Houston and with all the transplants we have from the north and east, deserve an NHL team. We are the fourth-largest city in America and I would love to have a team here," Fertitta said. "The National Hockey League is continuing to grow. It's getting better and better. Their fan appeal is getting better and better. And I'm going to do whatever I can to get (a team) here in the next few years."

Houston NHL expansion team dreams delayed after Seattle files application

that has nothing to do with Arizona, bye

 

[MNNumbers]

that has nothing to do with Arizona, bye

It may have EVERYTHING to do with Arizona, Hutch.

However, it doesn't include the quote from the most recent piece, which included things like: Hockey struggles south of the Mason-Dixon line. It's just a fact.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

It may have EVERYTHING to do with Arizona, Hutch.

However, it doesn't include the quote from the most recent piece, which included things like: Hockey struggles south of the Mason-Dixon line. It's just a fact.

I've never bought into relocationist theories as has been brought up numerous times, either, MNN.... ESPECIALLY when said relocationist theorists keep bringing up Carolina or Florida as franchises in trouble..... honestly, in reality, neither is Arizona..... and sorry, I'M NOT BUYING either the theory of Seattle landing this franchise, either.....

 

[Jets4Life]

I've never bought into relocationist theories as has been brought up numerous times, either, MNN.... ESPECIALLY when said relocationist theorists keep bringing up Carolina or Florida as franchises in trouble..... honestly, in reality, neither is Arizona..... and sorry, I'M NOT BUYING either the theory of Seattle landing this franchise, either.....

Seattle has been earmarked for an NHL expansion franchise, scheduled for play in the 2020-21 season. As long as everything goes according to plan, Seattle will begin play in the Pacific Division, as the 32nd team.

source: Seattle can begin NHL expansion process

If anything, Houston is the front runner for landing a team that relocates. I don't think the NHL would put up much resistance, if an owner from Houston, wanted to purchase the Arizona Coyotes, and move them to Houston, considering it would actually be beneficial, in terms of the Divisional alignment, and it would finally allow the NHL to wash it's hands of a franchise that has never been profitable.

 

[MNNumbers]

I've never bought into relocationist theories as has been brought up numerous times, either, MNN.... ESPECIALLY when said relocationist theorists keep bringing up Carolina or Florida as franchises in trouble..... honestly, in reality, neither is Arizona..... and sorry, I'M NOT BUYING either the theory of Seattle landing this franchise, either.....

So, it's your opinion that they are staying in Arizona, forever, no matter what?

And how do you mean your implication that Arizona is not a franchise in trouble?

 

[awfulwaffle]

Can we get a thread devoted to Hockey to Houston? Arizona's thread is now turning into a "which team isn't stable enough that could move, and what cities could they go to?".

 

[MNNumbers]

Can we get a thread devoted to Hockey to Houston? Arizona's thread is now turning into a "which team isn't stable enough that could move, and what cities could they go to?".

Here's the most recent, if you want to try to resurrect it?

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/thre...-and-its-a-fact.2484693/page-9#post-146161511

And, in general, while there would be musings otherwise, the following is the run down on the franchises:

EAST:
Florida: No out clause until spring 2023
Carolina: Assuming Dundon signed 7 years, there are not moving until 2025
Islanders: If the arena at Belmont goes through, they will be set for a long time
Ottawa: See the current threads on Melnyk. Basically, Melnyk controls everything, but is losing money and doesn't have big account to absorb continual huge losses. Possibility of a sale to another local group is the VERY VERY most likely option. Long-shot alternative would be a sale to Quebecor in Quebec

WEST:
There are rumors in only 2 places:
Calgary, where the ownership is dissatisfied with the Saddledome, and the city isn't wanting to gift them a new arena, and the situation may be at an impasse until the 2026 Olympic bid is decided
Arizona: about which much has been said.
Options for both are Houston (see the Fertitta thread linked above for his most recent comments on the matter - he controls the NBA Rockets and their arena), or, on another long-shot, changing Seattle's expansion bid to a relocation, which has obstacles for pragmatic reasons mostly.

And, finally, with respect to Awfulwaffle, there really is no news out of Arizona right now, either, which is sort of fanning the rumor mill in a way, because of the announced quest for new arena. But, mostly, it's a very dead news cycle right now.

 

[BogsDiamond]

Seattle has been earmarked for an NHL expansion franchise, scheduled for play in the 2020-21 season. As long as everything goes according to plan, Seattle will begin play in the Pacific Division, as the 32nd team.

source: Seattle can begin NHL expansion process

If anything, Houston is the front runner for landing a team that relocates. I don't think the NHL would put up much resistance, if an owner from Houston, wanted to purchase the Arizona Coyotes, and move them to Houston, considering it would actually be beneficial, in terms of the Divisional alignment, and it would finally allow the NHL to wash it's hands of a franchise that has never been profitable.

I agree. The NHL will block anyone from taking the team to Canada, but if the plan was to move them to Houston, I think Lil' Gary would let it pass.
I really hope Quebec gets another franchise too. The NHLPA wants that as well. They'd sell out every game and help increase the Cap.

 

[awfulwaffle]

Here's the most recent, if you want to try to resurrect it?

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/thre...-and-its-a-fact.2484693/page-9#post-146161511

And, in general, while there would be musings otherwise, the following is the run down on the franchises:

EAST:
Florida: No out clause until spring 2023
Carolina: Assuming Dundon signed 7 years, there are not moving until 2025
Islanders: If the arena at Belmont goes through, they will be set for a long time
Ottawa: See the current threads on Melnyk. Basically, Melnyk controls everything, but is losing money and doesn't have big account to absorb continual huge losses. Possibility of a sale to another local group is the VERY VERY most likely option. Long-shot alternative would be a sale to Quebecor in Quebec

WEST:
There are rumors in only 2 places:
Calgary, where the ownership is dissatisfied with the Saddledome, and the city isn't wanting to gift them a new arena, and the situation may be at an impasse until the 2026 Olympic bid is decided
Arizona: about which much has been said.
Options for both are Houston (see the Fertitta thread linked above for his most recent comments on the matter - he controls the NBA Rockets and their arena), or, on another long-shot, changing Seattle's expansion bid to a relocation, which has obstacles for pragmatic reasons mostly.

And, finally, with respect to Awfulwaffle, there really is no news out of Arizona right now, either, which is sort of fanning the rumor mill in a way, because of the announced quest for new arena. But, mostly, it's a very dead news cycle right now.

Exactly, this thread has just become a playground for people to run around ideas like will Ferrell ran in circles at the front entrance in the movie elf.

 

[Llama19]

Andrew Barroway Seeking $500 Million Valuation For Arizona Coyotes

To quote:

"Andrew Barroway, the owner of the Arizona Coyotes, is looking to sell 49% of the National Hockey League team at a $500 million valuation, according to multiple sources.

The fact that Barroway is now seeking cash for his team is not surprising. When he bought out his partners I wrote: “Barroway’s buyout of his partners is the riskiest deal I can recall in recent memory. ... Barroway and the Coyotes are now leveraged to the hilt. As of now, the Coyotes have $250 million of debt. There is $100 million of NHL credit facility debt and two loans from MGG Investment Group; one for $100 million with about a 10% interest rate and a payment-in-kind loan for $50 million that would be redeemed in six years for $100 million.”"

Source: www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2018/07/17/andrew-barroway-seeking-500-million-valuation-for-arizona-coyotes/#7c5fc7003fb7

 

[BigBadBread]

Barroway looking for the exit door perhaps? (via Forbes)

Andrew Barroway Seeking $500 Million Valuation For Arizona Coyotes

 

[Llama19]

Barroway looking for the exit door perhaps? (via Forbes)

Andrew Barroway Seeking $500 Million Valuation For Arizona Coyotes

Beat you by a minute...still The Fastest Keyboard In The West (TM)...