Phoenix CXXIII: Who Wants to Pay Our Bills?

[Llama19]

Does Economic Impact imply that the RoadRunners existence also depends on a new arena?

I do not recall any mention of the AHL Roadrunners during the presentation as it relates to the Coyotes getting their new arena...

 

[MNNumbers]

I do not recall any mention of the AHL Roadrunners during the presentation as it relates to the Coyotes getting their new arena...

Look at the slide and notice the bottom row.

 

[berklon]

Hey, if the NHL and/or IA want to lose more money - more power to them.
It's not effecting my wallet.

 

[Killion]

I think that Bettman being involved at this time is highly significant. I also think that Barroway mentioning the possibility of a time coming when there is no way forward in Arizona is very significant.

I think it's now 50/50 for a relo this summer.

What do others think?

After reading Bettmans letter I think the odds went from a flat zero to like 30-40% or better.... but then surprise surprise... the almost mute Andrew Barroway comes out with his little missive as well & when I saw that... the odds went up by probably double. This all still has to sink in, but on the surface, my reaction to both letters is that this is indeed the final putsch... the rubber is really hitting road... this a concerted & coordinated PR effort, bringing out the heavy guns, one last volley in what they just have to know is a losing effort with the Legislature. Laying down a lot of smoke to cover a hasty exit. Sure looks that way. As to a % or what odds... 50% about right & subject to change, going up considerably over the next few days & weeks as this all plays out. After all that was said and will now be analysed & scrutinized, both Bettman & Barroway have really put it out there, no walking any of it back, hard to fathom a completely lame duck 17/18 season after todays words.

 

[Vdom999]

Summary from Joyce Clark

http://joyceclarkunfiltered.com

 

[Llama19]

http://joyceclarkunfiltered.com

Direct link: http://joyceclarkunfiltered.com/an-unmistakable-sound-of-desperation/

 

[blues10]

The following are the financial links to the screen-captured slides that were presented by Mitchell Ziets, representing the Coyotes, of Tipping Point Sports...

Financials
02-14-17-STTC-01-FinancingLandscape
02-14-17-STTC-02-ChartingANewCourse
02-14-17-STTC-03-GuidingPrinciples
02-14-17-STTC-04-FundingSources
02-14-17-STTC-05-StateRevenueSharing
02-14-17-STTC-06-StateRevenueResults
02-14-17-STTC-07-TeamInvestment
02-14-17-STTC-08-EconomicImpact

The Economic Impact is where Bettman got his $600 million figure from...

Thanks. So what is the difference in operating impact of a new arena on some unknown pile of dirt and the Roadrunners to the operating impact in Glendale plus the Roadrunners?

Is Gary saying the current economic impact of the Coyotes in Glendale plus the Roadrunners is $300 million?

 

[Llama19]

Look at the slide and notice the bottom row.

I did not look at that slide again, after I posted it...

So...it appears that the Coyotes have a direct impact of over $600 million and
the Roadrunners have an additional impact of a little more than $21 million...
that's a lot of impacting...

 

[Elephant Igloo]

Another loss for the NHL. The business schools will have case studies on this, the papers will say the NHL failed in the south.

You get the feeling the 3rd lockout, will be the last one...

Are you saying the league will die before there's another lockout or that the next lockout will kill the league? Because the next one will be the fourth one.

 

[MNNumbers]

After reading Bettmans letter I think the odds went from a flat zero to like 30-40% or better.... but then surprise surprise... the almost mute Andrew Barroway comes out with his little missive as well & when I saw that... the odds went up by probably double. This all still has to sink in, but on the surface, my reaction to both letters is that this is indeed the final putsch... the rubber is really hitting road... this a concerted & coordinated PR effort, bringing out the heavy guns, one last volley in what they just have to know is a losing effort with the Legislature. Laying down a lot of smoke to cover a hasty exit. Sure looks that way. As to a % or what odds... 50% about right & subject to change, going up considerably over the next few days & weeks as this all plays out. After all that was said and will now be analysed & scrutinized, both Bettman & Barroway have really put it out there, no walking any of it back, hard to fathom a completely lame duck 17/18 season after todays words.

Well, this is the thing, isn't it Killion? If you are Bettman and you are Barroway, how do you make veiled threats to relocate (both Commissioner and Governor), and use expressions like "until we arrive at a place where there is no way forward in Arizona" and then watch as the Legislature tells you "no."

Once you have done that, what have you done to the fan base? I read F40 here sometimes, and the loyal fans there are even turning away. What' does that tell you the casual fan will do next year, if there is no deal, and the Valley knows you have threatened to leave?

Next year would be insufferable. No trust from the fans. No one believes a word any more, because there have been too many things said. The local media is not using the language you would want them to use. You want "No new taxes" and "team is responsible for all cost overruns" instead, it's "Coyotes want 170M from state and 55M from city to build new arena". You want "No future in Glendale". Instead, it's "West Valley growing, and Glendale wants to keep the team...." All of that piles up against you.

You know you can't survive without a new arena and subsidy. Legislature doesn't want to give one. If you bide your time, you lose big next year, and what do you gain? Probably nothing in the long run.

I don't see a way to stay after this, but I am always wrong about these guys, so that's why I said 50/50.

But, really, I still maintain the time to leave was in June of 2015, when COG cancelled the AMF. Hop to QC then, and you had the better of the reporting. Now, it's almost too late for that, even.

 

[blues10]

I did not look at that slide again, after I posted it...

So...it appears that the Coyotes have a direct impact of over $600 million and the Roadrunners have an additional impact of a little more than $21 million...that's a lot of impacting...

Even more impactful when when no one even knows the location of the arena. With all that impacting the Coyotes and IA are sure to have more than enough of their share of state taxes to dress an impactful lineup on the ice and put some extra dough in their pockets. After the the relocation within the valley I suggest a name change to the Arizona Impact.

 

[MNNumbers]

I did not look at that slide again, after I posted it...

So...it appears that the Coyotes have a direct impact of over $600 million and
the Roadrunners have an additional impact of a little more than $21 million...
that's a lot of impacting...

Yeah, and here's my question: What does a new arena change for the Roadrunners? Nothing. Not. A. Thing. So, their inclusion there is another veiled threat that they leave, too, without a new arena, right?

 

[Llama19]

...But, really, I still maintain the time to leave was in June of 2015, when COG cancelled the AMF. Hop to QC then, and you had the better of the reporting. Now, it's almost too late for that, even.

“It is never too late to give up our prejudices. No way of thinking or doing, however ancient, can be trusted without proof. What everybody echoes or in silence passes by as true today may turn out to be falsehood tomorrow, mere smoke of opinion, which some had trusted for a cloud that would sprinkle fertilizing rain on their fields.â€

- Henry David Thoreau

 

[Llama19]

Yeah, and here's my question: What does a new arena change for the Roadrunners? Nothing. Not. A. Thing. So, their inclusion there is another veiled threat that they leave, too, without a new arena, right?

Veiled?

After the statement by Bettman...more like drop the hammer time...

 

[Killion]

http://joyceclarkunfiltered.com

... well, my my... looks like Joyce there is finally coming around to the realization that no, no these are not good people... too damn bad she & the rest of her colleagues on Council back in the day didnt catch on then, done some research, taken a look around the league, at the NHL's sordid & sleazy history... couldve save themselves & their taxpayers a whole lot of grief. Forewarned & forearmed.

 

[MNNumbers]

Veiled?

After the statement by Bettman...more like drop the hammer time...

Give me your odds they are gone this summer?

 

[Llama19]

Give me your odds they are gone this summer?

I like the scenario that Killion laided out in his post...

 

[objectiveposter]

I'm guessing the feedback Bettman was getting from the politicians is that they want the Coyotes to stay in Glendale instead of building a new arena. Now that Bettman has made it clear that Glendale is not an option I wonder how many of the politicians will change their minds. Probably none, but its worth a shot for the league.

Gary Bettman is usually a "never say never" type of guy. Always gives vague responses and keeps his options open. The fact that he was so definitive about leaving Glendale suggests to me that if the bill fails this team will finally relocate at the end of the season. I say there is only a 10% chance the bill passes so a 90% chance the team moves. The highest its ever been.

 

[XX]

Gary Bettman is usually a "never say never" type of guy. Always gives vague responses and keeps his options open. The fact that he was so definitive about leaving Glendale suggests to me that if the bill fails this team will finally relocate at the end of the season. I say there is only a 10% chance the bill passes so a 90% chance the team moves. The highest its ever been.

IA is likely tapped out and the NHL has a good price in a market they're comfortable with to force a sale. It's now or never for staying in AZ.

 

[Killion]

But, really, I still maintain the time to leave was in June of 2015, when COG cancelled the AMF. Hop to QC then, and you had the better of the reporting. Now, it's almost too late for that, even.

Based on a sort of quick appraisal of time-lines here and when an announced Sale-Relo could or would most likely occur... and Im thinking 1st week of April.... Coyotes home to Vancouver on Thursday the 6th followed by their final game vs the Wild on Saturday the 8th... if Quebec's in the ballpark pricewise & no difficulties, announce the sale-relo on like April 5th (prior to the Playoffs, give the fans a chance to say goodbye) and sure, QC could pull it off. Give them nearly 4.5-5mnths to get it together, tweak this n' that thereafter. I dont see the NHL doing anything through the Playoffs and leaving it until the end of June, early July? No, thats really pushing it. It could be done but it could & would cause a lot of logistical problems. So.... if this is going to happen, Im expecting it to happen before the start of the Playoffs, and very soon indeed. Fast. The NHL isnt going to want to be dragging this out.... On the other hand?... I can see them staying put through 17/18... more of the same... in discussions with Phoenix... various tribes...

 

[Llama19]

IA is likely tapped out and the NHL has a good price in a market they're comfortable with to force a sale. It's now or never for staying in AZ.

It's now or never
Come hold me tight
Give me my arena
Because I just might
Not be here tomorrow
For it will be too late
It's now or never
My subsidy won't wait

(Apologies to Elvis for the rewritten lyrics...)

 

[Killion]

IA is likely tapped out and the NHL has a good price in a market they're comfortable with to force a sale. It's now or never for staying in AZ.

Yeah, I think if I was an Arizonian based on todays flurry of activities & whats known in a broader sense, I'd be steeling myself for the worst. The next few days, tomorrow, should Bettman or God Forbid Barroway actually deign to respond to reporters calls, emails.... we should have a clearer picture. See what they have to say in followup.

 

[Vdom999]

Arizona State Legislature

Knowing that the common known last date for the NHL to announce a relocation is May 31, when is the last date that Bill 1149 could be passed under the actual schedule of the Arizona State Legislature?

 

[gstommylee]

Knowing that the common known last date for the NHL to announce a relocation is May 31, when is the last date that Bill 1149 could be passed under the actual schedule of the Arizona State Legislature?

If the league were announce a sale or relocation of a team it'll be after stanley cup finals.

 

[Killion]

Knowing that the common known last date for the NHL to announce a relocation is May 31, when is the last date that Bill 1149 could be passed under the actual schedule of the Arizona State Legislature?

I believe that date is March 24th... however, Emergency Sessions can be called, though in a case like this one, highly unlikely.