Player Discussion Phillip Danault 1st line 3rd C Edition

[26Mats]

6"5 multiple 20 goal seasons PLUS the other elements to his game and philly had money to blow, not hard to see why.
2 G 5 A in 5gp already, he is earning his contract.

yeah it's not hard to see why. But note, 6'5 isn't scoring. There are other factors.

I'm not saying Danault will get Hayes money. But I could see how his other factors bring him above 5M - at least in a pre-covid market.

 

[Mrb1p]

Exactly, it's not all about scoring. There is something called the market. So whether we like it or not, Danault may be getting more than 5M per year. As Redux said, we don't make the rules. The market does. But the market's rules aren't only based on points, as Hayes proves.

Hayes is also a better player and proved more offensively, note that I wouldn't mind him at 6+ either.

 

[Redux91]

yeah it's not hard to see why. But note, 6'5 isn't scoring. There are other factors.

I'm not saying Danault will get Hayes money. But I could see how his other factors bring him above 5M - at least in a pre-covid market.

Well we will have to SERIOUSLY disagree on that.
In no world is he worth over 5M, not this guy, and i actually like what he brings to the team and been pulling for him for years...and now he's pulling this shit? im stunned honestly.

 

[Not The One]

Scoring, gets you more money.

Its not rocket science bud, its not even calculus.

I didnt make the money rules.

Explain to me why McDavid and Matthews make 11 million dollars a year and not 5. No go ahead please id love to hear it

Because they have twice as many points as the players we were discussing. Now compare Danault/Gally/Anderson...

 

[Drive425]

yeah it's not hard to see why. But note, 6'5 isn't scoring. There are other factors.

I'm not saying Danault will get Hayes money. But I could see how his other factors bring him above 5M - at least in a pre-covid market.

Hoffman signed for 4 mill and he's a consistent 30 goal scorer.

 

[CHfan1]

Don Meehan's firm always drove a hard bargain. Fiset, as part of that firm, must be following their blueprint for negotiations.

To play hardball when revenues have flatlined and the cap is fixed over the next 2-3 years -- I can't figure out what they're thinking.

I can’t figure it out also. And even after 2-3 years the cap is only going to go up minimally. After this season the players are going to have a ton to pay back in escrow and my guess is they won’t pay it back in the lifetime of this CBA.

On the Ray and Dregs podcast they said a major market team is going to only make about 40% of their normal revenue this season. They also talked to a couple GM’s and those GM’s don’t see it going back to normal for 3-5 years.

So I agree with you. The other big thing he would be getting is term. We saw a lot of free agents this season have to take 1 year deals. I’m sure it will be the same next offseason. 6 years in this market is a great deal.

 

[26Mats]

Well we will have to SERIOUSLY disagree on that.
In no world is he worth over 5M, not this guy, and i actually like what he brings to the team and been pulling for him for years...and now he's pulling this shit? im stunned honestly.

Yeah, he definitely has an inflated view of his worth.

One thing that might bring him back to earth: so far, he's gotten his wish to play with Tatar and Gallagher. And he's happy with his role it sounds like. So if he doesn't put up 50 points, he may realize he's not going to get 6M or 5.5M on the open market in this covid time.

Then again, Seattle, or some other team that likes our team success and his contributions to it, may be willing to give him that.

We'll see how things unfold. What his value is on the market is the highest that just 1 team is willing to give him.

 

[Scriptor]

Danault at $5mm for 6 years would make me vomit tbh

$5mm x 2 MAX

You could choke on it and it wouldn't affect the situation one bit.

 

[Scriptor]

I want Phil to stay too. But he wants to play with offensive players, and he wants KK and Suzuki to also get offensive players like Anderson and Toffoli. So how are we going to make that happen (re-sign Tatar, etc.. ) if Phil is asking for the moon. 5M is a fair price for Phil. 6M is too much. I guess 5.5M is the compromise. If he can get 50 points this year playing with Tatar and Gallagher, ok 5.5M. But if he can't even do that, he's really asking for a lot. It's the covid era. And Suzuki and KK are going to need new deals...

I want Phil to stay and I want him to play with offensive players who can play two-way hockey. Everybody should want that, for the team to have the depth to ice a top-9 with offensive wingers all around.

What gives?

Danault can produce 50ish points as a top-9 C with offensive wingers if the coach is like Julien and likes to roll out four lines.

I'd rather a 50-ish point-producing C in his role than a 30-35 point producing c that's mostly a defensive stalwart.

It's not the dislike of Danault that bothers me, it's the limited view of how to build a winner and a lack of understanding about Cap management.

 

[Mrb1p]

You could choke on it and it wouldn't affect the situation one bit.

Whats the point of these awfully personal posts? Are you Dranos momma?

 

[JoelWarlord]

Hayes is also a better player and proved more offensively, note that I wouldn't mind him at 6+ either.

What's Hayes better at? What has he proven offensively?

Over the last three seasons Danault's been more individually productive at even strength (2.12 vs 1.94 P/60), and his line's been massively more productive with him on the ice than Hayes (3.18 G/60 vs 2.58). The Canadiens are nearly 25% more productive with Danault on the ice than Hayes' teams have been with him on the ice. At EV the Habs score 55.6% of the goals with Danault on the ice, Hayes' teams score 49%. by xG it's 56.8% vs. 50.9%. Shot/corsi share is around 56% vs 48%. Across the board Danault's been the significantly more productive player at even strength, and defensively there's no comparison.

Hayes is a better PP guy but that's about it, and he's certainly nothing spectacular. At 4.55 P/60 on the power play he's been about as productive as Drouin or a little better than Tatar. That's good but I certainly would not call the guy who's line scores 25% less goals than Danault's and controls 49% of the goals and 48% of shots the better scorer. I would absolutely not call him the better player given the huge defensive gap between the two.

 

[JustAHabFan]

5M covid is like 6M pre covid. The cap probably will come down soon. We can't afford Danault at 6M. If he insisting on 6M, trade him away and give his jobs to Evans.

 

[Mrb1p]

What's Hayes better at? What has he proven offensively?

Over the last three seasons Danault's been more individually productive at even strength (2.12 vs 1.94 P/60), and his line's been massively more productive with him on the ice than Hayes (3.18 G/60 vs 2.58). The Canadiens are nearly 25% more productive with Danault on the ice than Hayes' teams have been with him on the ice. At EV the Habs score 55.6% of the goals with Danault on the ice, Hayes' teams score 49%. by xG it's 56.8% vs. 50.9%. Shot/corsi share is around 56% vs 48%. Across the board Danault's been the significantly more productive player at even strength, and defensively there's no comparison.

Hayes is a better PP guy but that's about it, and he's certainly nothing spectacular. At 4.55 P/60 on the power play he's been about as productive as Drouin or a little better than Tatar. That's good but I certainly would not call the guy who's line scores 25% less goals than Danault's and controls 49% of the goals and 48% of shots the better scorer. I would absolutely not call him the better player given the huge defensive gap between the two.

Yes, we all know Danault produces at ES and that his numbers are comparable to McDavid, weve heard it before, doesnt mean its true.

 

[Ezpz]

I'd sign him at 6 and move out Byron and Chiarot in the off-season. Look to move Drouin before Suzuki's bridge deal. I'd guess Weber is 3 years from retiring as well.

 

[Habit11]

5M covid is like 6M pre covid. The cap probably will come down soon. We can't afford Danault at 6M. If he insisting on 6M, trade him away and give his jobs to Evans.

Or maybe do like every other team in the league and roll your best two offensive C's in the top 6 every night if you have the option.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

Most important tidbit of that Brunet article: Danault isn't griping about his role anymore. That's the most important thing, IMO. Money and years is the easiest thing to workout. I'm hopeful we keep him.

 

[26Mats]

I want Phil to stay and I want him to play with offensive players who can play two-way hockey. Everybody should want that, for the team to have the depth to ice a top-9 with offensive wingers all around.

What gives?

Danault can produce 50ish points as a top-9 C with offensive wingers if the coach is like Julien and likes to roll out four lines.

I'd rather a 50-ish point-producing C in his role than a 30-35 point producing c that's mostly a defensive stalwart.

It's not the dislike of Danault that bothers me, it's the limited view of how to build a winner and a lack of understanding about Cap management.

Well, what if Danault wants 6M or 7M a year, and there's another team out there willing to give it to him, is the issue...

 

[SpeedyPotato]

Here's a fun fact: Over the last two years PLD had gotten a grand total of 21 minutes of PK-time. 16% of his faceoffs (312/1913) have been in the defensive zone, which seems to indicate that Torts doesn't really trust him there. In comparison, Danault has taken 41% of his faceoffs in the DZ (1243/3009). Not arguing that PLD is better than Danault overall, but he certainly can't fill his role right now.

Yeah I know and I agree, I'm not the all-in for PLD type, but if Danault doesn't want to stay for that rich of a contract which by today's standards I'm not even sure he deserves, I'm ready to take the risk and move on without him at this point. He's a very solid player, but 4-5m is the max he should ever get if we want to be able to compete with him in the lineup.

 

[CHfan1]

Well, what if Danault wants 6M or 7M a year, and there's another team out there willing to give it to him, is the issue...

In this market I’d be shocked if a team would be willing to give him that long term. I expect this free agent market in this offseason to be as bad as last season, maybe worse.

 

[26Mats]

In this market I’d be shocked if a team would be willing to give him that long term. I expect this free agent market in this offseason to be as bad as last season, maybe worse.

Let's hope so. But Seattle is bringing 81.5M more cap space into the system. So it's unclear to me how the market will be.

I could see Seattle offering Danault good money. He would be a great piece to add to their roster.

 

[Kriss E]

His putz agents should get on the phone, then. What are they waiting for?

Maybe they are receiving hints from other teams for interest over summer.

 

[CHfan1]

Let's hope so. But Seattle is bringing 81.5M more cap space into the system. So it's unclear to me how the market will be.

I could see Seattle offering Danault good money. He would be a great piece to add to their roster.

Maybe. We’ll see. If they give him $6-7 million for 5-6 years, great for Danault. But that would be a bad deal for Montreal with all the contracts they have on board and RFA’s like KK, Suzuki, and Romanov to sign in the next couple of years. The cap isn’t go up substantially for probably the next 5-6 seasons.

I really think in this market getting a 6 year term when you’re not a top UFA is something Danault should have jumped at.

 

[Supersonic]

You could choke on it and it wouldn't affect the situation one bit.

Brilliant

 

[JoelWarlord]

Yes, we all know Danault produces at ES and that his numbers are comparable to McDavid,.

I'm not comparing him to McDavid, I'm comparing him to Hayes. Danault's individual numbers are nowhere near McDavid's either so I'm not sure what you're talking about. Their on ice GF/60 are comparable but I'd never suggest that means he's as good a producer as McDavid when he maintains the same rate over 15-20% more TOI, plays in a shit system, is the most game-planned against player in the league, usually just has 1 dman who can make a pass, and plays a bunch with Kassian and fool's gold like RNH.

Hayes got stiffed a little bit with linemates last year for the Flyers, so if we look at just 17-18 and 18-19 we're comparing Danault with Tatar + Gallagher to Hayes who played with Kreider + Buchnevich mostly, and then with Connor + Ehlers or Laine in Winnipeg. Even including his career year with those players the results are very close, Hayes 2.05 to Danault 1.93 P/60 at even strength, and Hayes 2.74 to Danault 2.84 on ice GF/60. That certainly doesn't suggest he's the clearly better producer to me.

weve heard it before, doesnt mean its true.

Just because you don't like how he looks on a breakaway or on the power play doesn't mean it isn't true either, he's not pulling fake even strength points out of thin air.

I think Hayes is a good player too, I just don't know what possibly makes him a clearly better producer. It's one thing when people point to Danault's career high 53 points and compare him to guys with 70+ who are worse at even strength. I don't agree with that analysis usually but I at least get the rationale and the PP matters. But in this case they both average around 45 points a year and the raw points difference is a 54 in 71 career year vs 53 in 81.

 

[azcanuck]

His worth is so hard to gauge because his linemates have that chemistry which makes the whole better than the sum of it's parts.
You watch him out there though and he's a valuable guy. just doesnt have scoring hands. But a very good battler in the corner. Underrated in that area?
With upcoming cap problems and rising stars in the organization you have to say no to some players and Phil is that guy along with perhaps Tatar.