OT: Philadelphia Phillies: Sometimes Ball Go Boom And Sometimes It Don’t (NL Champs)

[Magua]

I don't really trust Swanson on a mega deal. Between his 25%+ K%, meh on-base numbers, and him grading only a bit above league average as a hitter over a 4 year period (wRC+), it's just a combination of things which this team already has issues without real certainty you're getting an impact hitter. I fully don't expect the Phillies giving Correa a Seager deal, but with him and Turner, I at least would feel confident they are very good hitters.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Yeah Swanson has that good hitter, bad plate discipline thing going on which you probably want to avoid after the Castellanos fiasco. They sure could use his glove in the middle of this defense, but this was a guy that was looking at getting non-tendered in the middle of the 2021 season because he wasn't hitting.

Turner is not a plate discipline savant himself, but with his speed and contact skills, you are going to get value that way and it adds another dynamic to the offense. Base running value too at least in the short term. If he's this athletic in his age-29 season, he hasn't really lost a step since he entered the league, it bodes well for his decline. I'm sure the Kevin Long relationship will play a role as well. I do wonder how long he will be able to stick at SS. He's always had that weird throwing thing going on, but he could probably play anywhere if they needed him to.

Correa is probably the best all-around hitter and the youngest so the upside for a long term contract is there, but I'm not going to pretend I know anything about his medicals. He was a top notch defender before this year before it fell off (at least by the metrics which aren't always reliable in SSS). He could slide over to 3B and not miss a beat offensively though if he had to. Feels like a Machado type.

Xander has always hit so he's probably always going to hit until he hangs them up, but he's had weird power spikes with meh metrics and he feels like a 3B waiting to happen for an already poor defensive team (people thought he was a 3B as a prospect so it's amazing he's stuck this long). Probably an easy pass unless the market is nuts.

Important to remember the new shift rules and how that impacts metrics. Some have benefited more from positioning than others.

I don't really trust Swanson on a mega deal. Between his 25%+ K%, meh on-base numbers, and him grading only a bit above league average as a hitter over a 4 year period (wRC+), it's just a combination of things which this team already has issues without real certainty you're getting an impact hitter. I fully don't expect the Phillies giving Correa a Seager deal, but with him and Turner, I at least would feel confident they are very good hitters.

Doesn't Xander have basic defense in The Show?

 

[Chinatown88]

Yeah Swanson has that good hitter, bad plate discipline thing going on which you probably want to avoid after the Castellanos fiasco. They sure could use his glove in the middle of this defense, but this was a guy that was looking at getting non-tendered in the middle of the 2021 season because he wasn't hitting.

Turner is not a plate discipline savant himself, but with his speed and contact skills, you are going to get value that way and it adds another dynamic to the offense. Base running value too at least in the short term. If he's this athletic in his age-29 season, he hasn't really lost a step since he entered the league, it bodes well for his decline. I'm sure the Kevin Long relationship will play a role as well. I do wonder how long he will be able to stick at SS. He's always had that weird throwing thing going on, but he could probably play anywhere if they needed him to.

Correa is probably the best all-around hitter and the youngest so the upside for a long term contract is there, but I'm not going to pretend I know anything about his medicals. He was a top notch defender before this year before it fell off (at least by the metrics which aren't always reliable in SSS). He could slide over to 3B and not miss a beat offensively though if he had to. Feels like a Machado type.

Xander has always hit so he's probably always going to hit until he hangs them up, but he's had weird power spikes with meh metrics and he feels like a 3B waiting to happen for an already poor defensive team (people thought he was a 3B as a prospect so it's amazing he's stuck this long). Probably an easy pass unless the market is nuts.

Important to remember the new shift rules and how that impacts metrics. Some have benefited more from positioning than others.



Doesn't Xander have basic defense in The Show?

This is why I have no freaking clue on who GM Bryce should sign.

 

[TheWolfOfBroadStreet]

This is why I have no freaking clue on who GM Bryce should sign.

I think Turner makes the most sense at SS. Trade Rhys - Can Yoshida play 1B? Sign more bull pen arms. I think Painter plays a big role next year so not too worried about getting another SP...Nola/Wheeler/Suarez/Painter...maybe bring back eflin?

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

I think Turner makes the most sense at SS. Trade Rhys - Can Yoshida play 1B? Sign more bull pen arms. I think Painter plays a big role next year so not too worried about getting another SP...Nola/Wheeler/Suarez/Painter...maybe bring back eflin?

Could possibly see Falter getting another look at SP? And with our money spending, I think we should swing for the fences with Murakami.

 

[TheWolfOfBroadStreet]

I think at this point Turner to the Phillies is the one player I am going to say is a lock.

Trea Turner said he wants to go back to the East Coast - Bryce said in August, “Trea is my favorite player in the league, and it’s not even close.” - Kristen Turner, Trea’s wife, is close with Kevin Long and Kayla Harper and is from the philly area (@philly_nation)

If I was ranking the SS I would have Turner 1st. His contact rate would be huge for this offense, only question would be were to bat him. his RBI numbers would be significantly down batting 2nd in our lineup so would be interesting.

With Rizzo opting out....Rhys to the yankees? Do they have any bullpen arms or prospect arms that make sense?

 

[Svechhammer]

I think at this point Turner to the Phillies is the one player I am going to say is a lock.

Trea Turner said he wants to go back to the East Coast - Bryce said in August, “Trea is my favorite player in the league, and it’s not even close.” - Kristen Turner, Trea’s wife, is close with Kevin Long and Kayla Harper and is from the philly area (@philly_nation)

If I was ranking the SS I would have Turner 1st. His contact rate would be huge for this offense, only question would be were to bat him. his RBI numbers would be significantly down batting 2nd in our lineup so would be interesting.

With Rizzo opting out....Rhys to the yankees? Do they have any bullpen arms or prospect arms that make sense?

Turner in the lineup gives us an enviable position to be in. I might do something like this -

1 - Stott
2 - JT
3 - Turner
4 - Harper
5 - Schwarber

If they have the confidence that Stott will be the on base hitter they claim he will be, you could really set the table nicely for Harper and Schwarber to consistently collect RBIs. And if they bring in Yoshida, then he might actually slot in 2nd, bumping JT to 6th to clean up if they try to walk Harper or Schwarber.

That would be a scary lineup.

 

[TheWolfOfBroadStreet]

Turner in the lineup gives us an enviable position to be in. I might do something like this -

1 - Stott
2 - JT
3 - Turner
4 - Harper
5 - Schwarber

If they have the confidence that Stott will be the on base hitter they claim he will be, you could really set the table nicely for Harper and Schwarber to consistently collect RBIs. And if they bring in Yoshida, then he might actually slot in 2nd, bumping JT to 6th to clean up if they try to walk Harper or Schwarber.

That would be a scary lineup.

I would love to bring in Yoshida but that would leave us with 4 RF/LF'ers ....unless Yoshida can play 1st or 3rd I dont see how we'd make it work. Castellanos/Schwarber/Harper - none of these guys should sniff the infield. Not to mention Harper is probably going to miss the first month or 2 of the season with the looming surgery on the horizon.

 

[Svechhammer]

I would love to bring in Yoshida but that would leave us with 4 RF/LF'ers ....unless Yoshida can play 1st or 3rd I dont see how we'd make it work. Castellanos/Schwarber/Harper - none of these guys should sniff the infield. Not to mention Harper is probably going to miss the first month or 2 of the season with the looming surgery on the horizon.

My thinking is we basically give Castellanos away if we can bring Yoshida in. Owners said they're willing to pay to win, right? Time to put that to the test. Then you have Yoshida penciled in for Harper's in the outfield until he's ready to be back, at which case you move him over to LF and DH Schwarber.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Five years since Doc passed away.

 

[Kermit the Prog]

Turner in the lineup gives us an enviable position to be in. I might do something like this -

1 - Stott
2 - JT
3 - Turner
4 - Harper
5 - Schwarber

If they have the confidence that Stott will be the on base hitter they claim he will be, you could really set the table nicely for Harper and Schwarber to consistently collect RBIs. And if they bring in Yoshida, then he might actually slot in 2nd, bumping JT to 6th to clean up if they try to walk Harper or Schwarber.

That would be a scary lineup.

And, if Yoshida is a no-go, an all-White Boy lineup.

 

[wankstifier]

Could possibly see Falter getting another look at SP? And with our money spending, I think we should swing for the fences with Murakami.

Lol... Has this been posted here yet?

Doesn't seem to be much smoke to Sasaki or Murakami leaving Japan for MLB. If they stay healthy and productive over the next few seasons, they'd be leaving a lot of money on the table.

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

Lol... Has this been posted here yet?

Doesn't seem to be much smoke to Sasaki or Murakami leaving Japan for MLB. If they stay healthy and productive over the next few seasons, they'd be leaving a lot of money on the table.

From what I can tell, the guy is a ridiculously good hitter and has some power while being small. And from what I can tell, is not very error prone either. Have him in center, with Schwarb and Nick beside him?

 

[FLYguy3911]

Pump the brakes a bit. Most Japanese hitters flop because the pitching is so much different here than it is there. Fangraphs has him as a 4th OF type and LF only. No harm in adding those types, but penciling him into lineups and as a contributor seems foolish.

 

[Chinatown88]

Pump the brakes a bit. Most Japanese hitters flop because the pitching is so much different here than it is there. Fangraphs has him as a 4th OF type and LF only. No harm in adding those types, but penciling him into lineups and as a contributor seems foolish.

 

[FLYguy3911]

2023 Top 50 Free Agents

The most significant players to hit the open market this offseason, as compiled by Ben Clemens and the FanGraphs staff.

blogs.fangraphs.com

They have Turner/Correa as the best non-Judge FAs.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

My thinking is we basically give Castellanos away if we can bring Yoshida in. Owners said they're willing to pay to win, right? Time to put that to the test. Then you have Yoshida penciled in for Harper's in the outfield until he's ready to be back, at which case you move him over to LF and DH Schwarber.

In a perfect world this is exactly what you do. Castellanos may not be moveable though if we are already bringing in Turner and then Yoshida as well. I know Middleton has money and said he's willing to spend it you gotta figure Turner is going to get a massive deal, then he'd have to pay the posting fee or whatever you call it for the right to deal with Yoshida, then you have to pay Yoshida. After all that IDK if he'd be willing to eat a big enough portion of the Casellanos deal to get someone to take him. I'm all for it just not sure it happens.

Could have a pretty wild offense though if they can pull it off. Grab 1-2 bullpen arms and another SP and this team looks like a real contender out of the gates.

Turner
JT
Harper
Schwarber
Yoshida
Hoskins (or Hoskins replacement when he is inevitably traded)
Bohm
Stott
Marsh

Wheeler-Nola-Suarez as a 1-2-3 and maybe one of the young guys like Painter or Abel or even Crouse or someone like that makes the jump.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Would Bogaerts be a better fit at 3B at this point?

Who do you want?

I would really have to look into that to have a meaningful answer. It's not just player, it's price. Of course Turner is a better player than someone like Swanson. But you're likely talking about a difference of ~8 MM per in AAV. Does that difference get me to another Starter?

People have been expecting Bogaerts to move to 3rd at the very least since he took off as a prospect in 2012. I would say assume best case scenario is that you get a couple of years out of him at SS.

 

[Beef Invictus]

See? Wildly different.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

@DrinkFightFlyers

Down from $390 to $253.

J.T. Realmuto Philadelphia Phillies Nike 2022 World Series Home Authentic Player Jersey - White

J.T. Realmuto Philadelphia Phillies Nike 2022 World Series Home Authentic Player Jersey - White is in stock now at Fanatics.com. Everything for the Fan.

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Bryce Harper Philadelphia Phillies Nike 2022 World Series Home Authentic Player Jersey - White

Bryce Harper Philadelphia Phillies Nike 2022 World Series Home Authentic Player Jersey - White is in stock now at Fanatics.com. Everything for the Fan.

www.fanatics.com

 

[FLYguy3911]

My World Series hat came in Saturday. : /

 

[trostol]

we have stacks..of crappy WS merch at work for like 50% off

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

@DrinkFightFlyers

Down from $390 to $253.

J.T. Realmuto Philadelphia Phillies Nike 2022 World Series Home Authentic Player Jersey - White

J.T. Realmuto Philadelphia Phillies Nike 2022 World Series Home Authentic Player Jersey - White is in stock now at Fanatics.com. Everything for the Fan.

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Bryce Harper Philadelphia Phillies Nike 2022 World Series Home Authentic Player Jersey - White

Bryce Harper Philadelphia Phillies Nike 2022 World Series Home Authentic Player Jersey - White is in stock now at Fanatics.com. Everything for the Fan.

www.fanatics.com

Niiiiiice. Probably gonna grab one

My World Series hat came in Saturday. : /

That's why I didn't get one, was waiting until they won. Did not want a hat reminding me of failure. I did get this shirt though...

DEATH IS HERE

TALKING ABOUT THE FIGHTINS SAID .: 100% preshrunk cotton (fiber content may vary for different colors).: Medium fabric (6.0 oz/yd² (203 g/m²)).: Classic Fit.: Tear-away label S M L XL 2XL 3XL Width, in 18.00 20.00 22.00 24.00 26.00 28.00 Length, in 26.50 28.50 30.50 31.50 32.50 33.50

www.grimgrimgrim.com

 

[Svechhammer]

Niiiiiice. Probably gonna grab one



That's why I didn't get one, was waiting until they won. Did not want a hat reminding me of failure. I did get this shirt though...

Meh, I got a hat with the patch, the NL Champs hat and the WS sweatshirt. This run was awesome, and there is no shame in us losing. It was a hell of a run that we should be proud of, and I have no problem wearing that gear with pride now.

If you only resign yourself to being happy with a top level championship, you're going to be in for a lot of misery in your life, and why put yourself through that. Plus, when we do win a World Series in the next 5 years, this season will be viewed fondly as the stepping stone that got us there.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Meh, I got a hat with the patch, the NL Champs hat and the WS sweatshirt. This run was awesome, and there is no shame in us losing. It was a hell of a run that we should be proud of, and I have no problem wearing that gear with pride now.

If you only resign yourself to being happy with a top level championship, you're going to be in for a lot of misery in your life, and why put yourself through that. Plus, when we do win a World Series in the next 5 years, this season will be viewed fondly as the stepping stone that got us there.

Right there with you. I’ll eat it all up. I’ll put this 2022 World Series hat right next to my ‘08 and ‘09 ones and hopefully have the other clothing (Nike stuff only) for another 14 years like I have with the others. Fanatics stuff? No chance it lasts.

BUT I have a weird juju thing that I don’t buy conference championship stuff before the main event. I’ll buy all of the Super Bowl, World Series, and Stanley Cup shit there is (meaning like the actual event not like when they win). In 2008 I bought my NL Champs shirt after the World Series and in 2009 I bought it before. That shit stuck with me.

When the Phillies clinched I bought the Realmuto authentic ($389, at the time), a on-field hat, my wife a sweatshirt ($85, at the time), and myself and my son a shirt. Everything but the jersey got delivered last Friday. The jersey still has an expected delivery date of 11/28.

So yesterday with the sale, I rebought the Jersey and my wife’s sweatshirt and saved $170. They also were already shipped with free over night shipping. I canceled the original jersey order and am returning my wife’s sweatshirt.