Rumor: Phaneuf About to Sign 7 Year/$50 Million Deal

[The Apologist]

Yes, and CBA's where you can bury a cap hit versus guaranteed to stay on the cap even if the player is reduced to a bumbling Lebda has to be taken into account.

You can't demote a player like Gomez or Reddon in today's CBA. Both seemed like reasonable contracts when signed, but very quickly they became vastly overpaid to the point it was better for the franchise that they be paid that money in the minors. Today, they'd have been stuck on the team, or at least 80% of their cap hit would be.

Reddon was 31 when he signed his contract, but he just wasn't the same player once he hit 30. McCabe similarly went down hill quickly for a couple reasons, one the can opener, two age slowed him down. He never was a great skater and without obstruction he just couldn't defend well enough.

The question is how will the inevitable aging affect players signing long term contracts into their 30's. There is no escape, other than paying another team with retained salary, or compensatory picks if your gamble craps out.

Sadly, this is the reality of the new CBA. If we don't sign this, someone else will. It seems likely that the cost to replace Phaneuf would far exceed (and probably hamper even worse) what it would to sign him to this contract.

If the David Clarksons of the world are getting almost 6 per, what do you think a defenseman BETTER than Phaneuf would get on the open market, assuming one makes it there in the first place.

Our other option is to just keep letting any player approaching UFA status walk and become a perpetual feeding system.

 

[notdoneyet]

They should have 1 compliance buyout per year. Why they don't is silly to me. NTC NMC should be reserved for maybe 30 players in this league tops. Guys like Crosby and Stamkos, now I don't mean like league imposed but it should be common practice but, sadly owners and GM's break forum and start this NTC bs all the time.

really what choice do they have. The owners and management have proven they are their own worst enemies. this whole CBA was drafted to protect them from THEMSELVES and still they ****ed it up by circumventing contracts.

once one team gives it out they all have to. The ONLY way to stop them is if the league mandates it. ie. name one player each year as a franchise player
and they are the only one eligible for this NMC?NTC

 

[yubbers]

jarome iginla who was a great captain in calgary

And who played on his blue line?

Riiiiiight. Coincidence? I think not

 

[Mess]

Half way through this season and in a contract year Dion Phaneuf is currently tied for 41st among Dmen scoring with 15 points (on pace for 30 points). That would put that result among his least offensive years of his entire career.

He will be turning 29 during the current season so he is in his prime and no longer developing. So what you see is what you get. WYSIWYG !

However he is about to be paid in his next contract like a top 5-10 highest paid overall Dman and long-term as well based on this rumour of a near deal being completed.

It appears that Leafs team weakness and talent on defense is what Phaneuf is using to his advantage in negotiations to prove his worth.

 

[The Apologist]

really what choice do they have. The owners and management have proven they are their own worst enemies. this whole CBA was drafted to protect them from THEMSELVES and still they ****ed it up by circumventing contracts.

Teams who can afford to circumvent the cap will always find a way to do so.

 

[The Apologist]

Half way through this season and in a contract year Dion Phaneuf is currently tied for 41st among Dmen scoring with 15 points (on pace for 30 points). That would put that result among his least offensive years of his entire career.

He will be turning 29 during the current season so he is in his prime and no longer developing.

However he is about to be paid in his next contract like a top 5-10 highest paid overall Dman and long-term as well based on this rumour of a near deal being completed.

It appears that Leafs team weakness and talent on defense is what Phaneuf is using to his advantage in negotiations to prove his worth.

He is also having one of the greatest defensive seasons of his career.
The question remains: Can the Leafs replace Dion Phaneuf for 7M or less on the open market?

 

[ULF_55]

Sadly, this is the reality of the new CBA. If we don't sign this, someone else will. It seems likely that the cost to replace Phaneuf would far exceed (and probably hamper even worse) what it would to sign him to this contract.

If the David Clarksons of the world are getting almost 6 per, what do you think a defenseman BETTER than Phaneuf would get on the open market, assuming one makes it there in the first place.

Our other option is to just keep letting any player approaching UFA status walk and become a perpetual feeding system.

Phaneuf is their best d-man, and deserves the highest d-man contract.

Will he be the best d-man in 3 years? Father Time is going to have a huge impact on that possibility, and it isn't like he skates like Brian Campbell.

Phaneuf is worth it today, but for how long will he be worth it?

I understand Leafs are stuck with the decision based on the team Burke built.

 

[The CyNick]

Half way through this season and in a contract year Dion Phaneuf is currently tied for 41st among Dmen scoring with 15 points (on pace for 30 points). That would put that result among his least offensive years of his entire career.

He will be turning 29 during the current season so he is in his prime and no longer developing. So what you see is what you get. WYSIWYG !

However he is about to be paid in his next contract like a top 5-10 highest paid overall Dman and long-term as well based on this rumour of a near deal being completed.

It appears that Leafs team weakness and talent on defense is what Phaneuf is using to his advantage in negotiations to prove his worth.

Would someone else pay him more in the summer?

Who can we replace him with?

Those are the questions that lead to Dion getting the deal he will get. He's worth every penny. Except to people who want us to try to be last every year until another Crosby comes along.

 

[ULF_55]

He is also having one of the greatest defensive seasons of his career.
The question remains: Can the Leafs replace Dion Phaneuf for 7M or less on the open market?

I agree he's turning into a better defenseman, but it appears to be at the cost of offense.

Is a good defensive defenseman worth 7 million a year?

 

[yubbers]

He is also having one of the greatest defensive seasons of his career.
The question remains: Can the Leafs replace Dion Phaneuf for 7M or less on the open market?

That start is being highly exaggerated due to exceptional goaltending. He better get reim and bern a car each

 

[The Apologist]

Phaneuf is their best d-man, and deserves the highest d-man contract.

Will he be the best d-man in 3 years? Father Time is going to have a huge impact on that possibility, and it isn't like he skates like Brian Campbell.

Phaneuf is worth it today, but for how long will he be worth it?

I understand Leafs are stuck with the decision based on the team Burke built.

But had Burke not traded for Phaneuf, would the Leafs have better options?
All players age, its inevitable. Is Chara the same now as he was at 29? Will Weber be the same at 33? Suter? Keith?
Its a risk you take with every player you sign long term. With the Cap being what it is, these long term deals are going to become more and more prevalent.
It could be worse, he could be signed for the next 11 years right?

 

[yubbers]

Is a good defensive defenseman worth 7 million a year?

Yes.

 

[Mess]

He is also having one of the greatest defensive seasons of his career.
The question remains: Can the Leafs replace Dion Phaneuf for 7M or less on the open market?

Leafs goalies are also having their best sv% seasons while the Leafs give up more shots against per game and get outshot and outplayed at regularity. What would Phaneuf look like defensively without strong goaltending support.

Why open market? Many teams replace departing players through strong drafting and development. Nashville lost Ryan Suter as a UFA and replaced him with Seth Jones through the draft and not by going out and spending wildly via free agency to replace the dollars.

Leaf Nation has a ingrained mentality that going out and buying talent is the only way to compete against the other teams of the NHL, when internal building is the most common approach.

In a couple of seasons Morgan Rielly might be ready to claim that top pairing role and Jake Gardiner is still evolving as well and Leafs have youngsters in the system still in the oven and cooking.

So resigning Phaneuf at any cost is not the only option available here to the Leafs and his long term deal might become an regrettable obstacle when he is making $7 mil at 35 and 36 years old. A 5 year deal from age 29-34 would make more sense.

 

[The Apologist]

I agree he's turning into a better defenseman, but it appears to be at the cost of offense.

Is a good defensive defenseman worth 7 million a year?

Depends how good.
To me, it appears that Phaneuf is doing what great players do. He's filling a need in Toronto. With Franson (or what Franson was), Gardiner and Rielly, the Leafs have offence from the blueline. Phaneuf gives us a shut down guy, which we desperately need. We all know Phaneuf can put up points, we've seen it.

 

[yubbers]

Exactly. It's tough cause the young guys need a few more years to be mentored and protected. If you let him walk, I still think you need a stable presence back there.

 

[notdoneyet]

I agree he's turning into a better defenseman, but it appears to be at the cost of offense.

Is a good defensive defenseman worth 7 million a year?

you will be surprised in a few years with the cap going up just how much
dmen are going to be paid. and not just offensive ones,

another thing you have to look at as a whole is the team for the last month
has scored fewer goals than ever before. Our offense sucked for the last month with all the injuries. I think you will see this pick up as injured players return.

 

[The Apologist]

Leafs goalies are also having their best sv% seasons while the Leafs give up more shots against per game and get outshot and outplayed at regularity. What would Phaneuf look like defensively without strong goaltending support.

Why open market? Many teams replace departing players through strong drafting and development. Nashville lost Ryan Suter as a UFA and replaced him with Seth Jones through the draft and not by going out and spending wildly via free agency to replace the dollars.

Leaf Nation has a ingrained mentality that going out and buying talent is the only way to compete against the other teams of the NHL, when internal building is the most common approach.

In a couple of seasons Morgan Rielly might be ready to claim that top pairing role and Jake Gardiner is still evolving as well and Leafs have youngsters in the system still in the oven and cooking.

So resigning Phaneuf at any cost is not the only option available here to the Leafs and his long term deal might become an regrettable obstacle when he is making $7 mil at 35 and 36 years old. A 5 year deal from age 29-34 would make more sense.

But at some point Seth Jones is also going to become a UFA. Then what? Start over? Are we now striving to become the Nashville Predators? I have no interest in becoming the NHL's development system. I want my team to become a real contender some day. I believe we have played a huge role in DP's development, as well as Phil's, whether we drafted them or not.

Regarding the next section, what if Rielly doesn't become that player? What if Gardiner doesn't? Phaneuf already is. If and when one of those two becomes this superstar they apparently will, you entertain the thought of moving your top 10-15 d.

Nobody is saying its the ONLY option, however it may very well be the ONLY one where we keep Phaneuf.

 

[Faltorvo]

It is plenty more subjective because it forces a player to fit into the parameters of a definition for which there is no consensus.

Put 50 knowledgeable hockey fans in a room and ask them to come up with a list of the "elite" vs "non-elite" defenders in the league. Then take those same 50 fans and ask them to come up with a top-25 d-men list. Which request do you think offers the most overlap or consensus?

Just when I thought we were making progress.

Dion is a top-20 defenceman in this league because he plays a huge number of minutes against extremely tough competition and fares very well in the process. He is relied upon and trusted by his coaches to play in all situations. Whilst doing this, he has remained a consistent threat offensively. Over the last 3 seasons, including this down year offensively, he is 16th among d-men in scoring. Over the last 4 seasons, again including this one, he is tied for 20th. Over the last 2 (half) seasons, 21st. To ask a player to play such tough defensive minutes and have him still produce offensively makes him a valuable player to have. As an overall package, I believe this places him in the top-20 amongst his peers.

I don't disagree with a word posted here but at 7m cap hit, I'm still displeased.

We are competing with the rest of the league for bang for your cap hit.

Right now we are losing that battle, we are a cap maxed team with at best a middling team.

Dion with the 5th highest D cap hit and Kessel with the 9th highest in the entire league is not helping us one bit competing against the other top teams who's stars are cap managing better.

The Sedin twins just inked for 7m per. Player wise those two at 14m cap or Dion/Kess at 15m cap? It's not a stretch to consider the twins better players then Dion and just as good as Kessel.

 

[Cap'n Flavour]

He is also having one of the greatest defensive seasons of his career.
The question remains: Can the Leafs replace Dion Phaneuf for 7M or less on the open market?

His possession stats are quite bad, and while they're tops on the team after adjusting for zone starts and quality of competition/teammates, they're still well below league-average and no different from Gunnarsson's. Like others have said, his very low GA/20 numbers are due to having exceptionally high on-ice sv%, i.e. great goaltending.

 

[Faltorvo]

Exactly. It's totally ridiculous already. I'm giving him respect as top 25. But man sakes alive guys he does not posses the skill set or leadership to command 7/7. IMO. Obviously many agree. Sign him to 3-4 year at 6. As I said a million times, the tail does not way the dog. He's 40 whatever in points. So Nonis based his deal on "tough minutes" alone then. Wow what college of business did he attend. Wow. How about giving him a short term deal, less money, performance heavy? Trim up the ego and send a message. Ooops can't because he's already paved the presidence with his other fluffy contracts.

This is comical already. We're talking fever pitch comical.

Both he and Kessel are represented by Newport sports.

They do their job as well as any out there, they wring every cent they can for the player they rep. It matters not to them how it affects the teams they play for.

 

[Gobias Industries]

His possession stats are quite bad, and while they're tops on the team after adjusting for zone starts and quality of competition/teammates, they're still well below league-average and no different from Gunnarsson's. Like others have said, his very low GA/20 numbers are due to having exceptionally high on-ice sv%, i.e. great goaltending.

Could he not be influencing the quality of shot as well?

That stat doesn't seem as open and shut as you're suggesting.

 

[Mess]

I agree he's turning into a better defenseman, but it appears to be at the cost of offense.

Is a good defensive defenseman worth 7 million a year?

You would think that a Dmen being paid as a top 5-10 overall NHL Dman should be a automatic for the Olympics.

So perhaps value to the Leafs is >>> than his value comparatively among his peers on performance.

Best Leaf DMan but not best NHL Dmen but paid as one none the less.

 

[TMLegend]

I do wonder If Dion has truly gotten better defensively or has he been lucky with his unsustainable on-ice SV%.

He has the highest 5 on 5 SV% on the team sitting at 96.2%. This number will inevitably regress at some point obviously. I just wonder if his +/- will plummet along with it when it does. Since this is what the majority of posters seem to correlate his improved +/- with improved defensive play I thought it would be interesting discussion.

http://www.extraskater.com/team/toronto-maple-leafs/2013#performance-charts

Edit: Looks like it's already been brought up...

 

[notdoneyet]

Leafs goalies are also having their best sv% seasons while the Leafs give up more shots against per game and get outshot and outplayed at regularity. What would Phaneuf look like defensively without strong goaltending support.

Why open market? Many teams replace departing players through strong drafting and development. Nashville lost Ryan Suter as a UFA and replaced him with Seth Jones through the draft and not by going out and spending wildly via free agency to replace the dollars.

Leaf Nation has a ingrained mentality that going out and buying talent is the only way to compete against the other teams of the NHL, when internal building is the most common approach.

In a couple of seasons Morgan Rielly might be ready to claim that top pairing role and Jake Gardiner is still evolving as well and Leafs have youngsters in the system still in the oven and cooking.

So resigning Phaneuf at any cost is not the only option available here to the Leafs and his long term deal might become an regrettable obstacle when he is making $7 mil at 35 and 36 years old. A 5 year deal from age 29-34 would make more sense.

well if you watched 24/7 leafs management seem to have
no problem giving it to him and seem quite confident in
dion's ability to get better with age. So it only makes sense to you
because of your opinion not managements.

As for nashville and seth jones they were very lucky to get him when they did.
Colorado really should have taken him and then he would never have been available.
colorados need wasnt for another center it really was for a dman. If colorado
had taken jones then drouin or another forward would have been taken by nashville and YES they would still be looking for another dman and quite possibly through FA.

same as when we had the fifth overall pick of course we would have wanted one of the big centers but we had to settle for reilly. Now that turned out to be great but at that time we needed a big center more than we needed a dman.

my point is even if you finish low and get a top 5 pick it may not be the player you need but the best of whats left. The only way you get exactly what you need is to win the lottery pick and draft #1.

 

[topched]

You would think that a Dmen being paid as a top 5-10 overall NHL Dman should be a automatic for the Olympics.

So perhaps value to the Leafs is >>> than his value comparatively among his peers on performance.

Best Leaf DMan but not best NHL Dmen but paid as one none the less.

I don't think you can look at the contracts like that though. With the cap system and Rfas it's not quite the same. You almost have to completely separate the ufa and RFA contracted dmen, because of the impact it has on negotiations.

All the dmen Dion is ranked among are Keith, Suter, Letang, Boyle, Chara, Campbell, Bouwmeester etc.

There are names out there like Pietrangelo, Subban etc. who will be getting similar money once they receive contracts that buy our UFA years. Contracts like Doughty, Karlsson, OEL are less money than Phaneuf, because they were signed during RFA status. It's not fair to rank the contracts similarly.

So if you rank contracts separately, 7 mill cap hit for Phaneuf isn't bad at all, especially with the cap going up. Charas 6.5 cap hit looked insane at the time, and now it's a bargain.

It does reinforce your point too though Mess, internally developed players on RFA deals are certainly more cost effective and this team needs to draft, acquire and develop these players to offset the high price of keeping your older stars. All the best teams do it.