Pete Chiarelli body of work (Edmonton only)

[Aceboogie]

If this is true then why make the trade? If he was told to make it then it flys in the face of the belief that he has total control here. That's something that's always going to be in question as long as Kevin Lowe is on the payroll.

I dont think he was told to make the pick. I think he walked into draft with high hopes of landing Hamilton and came damn close until last second. It could have came down to literally minutes when things flipped

Then you have Chiarelli there at draft table with moveable picks, Hamilton is gone, no other D is available for that price and you have your head scout, former magement, and hell maybe even owner saying "Oh damn, Hamiltons gone, look REINHART is really good, like really good, weve scouted him for years, hes legit"

And Chiarelli has to weigh their input versus fact he must make a deal to make a splash now. Once 16th overall is moved (or picked) a the best avenue to acquire a D is gone.

Judging by fact Hamilton and Reinhart were only D traded last year IIRC (Zadorov but in package). It could be, overpay for Reinhart or go into July 1 with only hope you can sign a UFA. You are not able- you go into September 1 with zero new D. So Reinhart or not much else

 

[CupofOil]

Well considering there was no other trades for established D besides Reinhart and Hamilton deals, and there were plenty of teams looking for D. I find it hard to believe there was any deal for a D out there that Chiarelli passed up for Reinhart

The trade was made right before 16th pick. You couldnt wait any longer. Once you pick, almost all trades go away. Teams want that pick to get their guy. Very few draft and trades happen ever

Then you draft the prospects, build up their value and trade them the next offseason. I bet that Connor would bring back quite a haul right about now, certainly more than Reinhart I would think.

To make the trade because they had to at that moment sounds kind of silly to me. They didn't HAVE TO trade those picks at that exact moment as if Reinhart is the best they could ever do. They probably believed that he could jump into the top 4 within the next year or two or at the very least, be a regular in the top 6 last season.

It's a fail on their part. They can't afford to wait on the development of another LHD prospect, one who was already far down their LHD depth chart. 4th to start last season and now arguably 5th behind Davidson.

 

[Hynh]

But if people are thinking Barzal would be used in a deal now to get a top pairing D, its weird that theyd not also think Bear/Jones + smaller add would not also land that. I mean Bear had a season pretty equal to Barzal if you look at fact he was 5th in D scoring and Barzal 12th in forward scoring. Youd think Barzal was setting scoring records

Draft pedigree means a lot to GMs. It's why dumb GMs will trade 16th and 33rd for a defenceman that doesn't have the tools to be a top 4 defender on a contender.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Draft pedigree means a lot to GMs. It's why dumb GMs will trade 16th and 33rd for a defenceman that doesn't have the tools to be a top 4 defender on a contender.

Because just assuming that it should be enough to do that, or that all Top-4 defenseman on contenders are equal is clearly the easiest answer.

 

[Beerfish]

Noone is calling Bear/Jones/Paigin a future top pairing D. People are treating Barzal like hes Jordan Eberle or Claude Giroux while ignoring he likely levels off at Mikeal Granlund or Mason Raymond

I will 100% agree that the cost of the deal didnt come from losing a future Jordan Eberle, it came from losing tradeable pieces we could have used now. But is Reinharts values totally down? not to sure, Ill bet there is 3 or 4 GMs who still drool over him and would pay a good amount for him

But if people are thinking Barzal would be used in a deal now to get a top pairing D, its weird that theyd not also think Bear/Jones + smaller add would not also land that. I mean Bear had a season pretty equal to Barzal if you look at fact he was 5th in D scoring and Barzal 12th in forward scoring. Youd think Barzal was setting scoring records

I hav eno idea why Barzal always gets brought up as I would not have picked him, regardless though Barzal is not at all being compared to any of the players you listed that I've seen. The oilers traded two high draft picks so those picks are long shots and garbage, the oilers make some picks and they are steals with a big future.

If the Oilers had made those picks you can be 100% sure this forum would be salivating all over them as prime prospects, yes even barzal.

 

[Beerfish]

I dont think he was told to make the pick. I think he walked into draft with high hopes of landing Hamilton and came damn close until last second. It could have came down to literally minutes when things flipped

Then you have Chiarelli there at draft table with moveable picks, Hamilton is gone, no other D is available for that price and you have your head scout, former magement, and hell maybe even owner saying "Oh damn, Hamiltons gone, look REINHART is really good, like really good, weve scouted him for years, hes legit"

And Chiarelli has to weigh their input versus fact he must make a deal to make a splash now. Once 16th overall is moved (or picked) a the best avenue to acquire a D is gone.

Judging by fact Hamilton and Reinhart were only D traded last year IIRC (Zadorov but in package). It could be, overpay for Reinhart or go into July 1 with only hope you can sign a UFA. You are not able- you go into September 1 with zero new D. So Reinhart or not much else

If that is the case then I have totally over estimated the quality of our GM. He was sold a bill of goods that this guy was ready to play. The fact that the usual suspects are still with this team is very troubling.

 

[Aceboogie]

I hav eno idea why Barzal always gets brought up as I would not have picked him, regardless though Barzal is not at all being compared to any of the players you listed that I've seen. The oilers traded two high draft picks so those picks are long shots and garbage, the oilers make some picks and they are steals with a big future.

If the Oilers had made those picks you can be 100% sure this forum would be salivating all over them as prime prospects, yes even barzal.

Where are you getting this? All of the picks are long shots. Had we kept the picks, they too would have been looked as promising. I, or really noone, is saying Barzal/Connor ISNT promising. They are very promising. But at end of day promising doesnt always translate. Could he be an Armia? super promising 16th whos yet to do anything 5 years later? is he a Gillies/Wishart, Smith? Or is he like a Tarasenko or Leddy? Who knows. But people are anointing the kid like hes next RNH.

At the end of the day is this trade a loss? yes IMO. It threw away potential value. But if this is Chiarellis worst trade hell make as a GM, you are golden. For all we know this trade could end up as L. Schenn for Jordan Schroeder + AHL player and people got in a fuss over nothing. There is still actually a good chance to come out ahead in this deal

So Ill defend this trade (somewhat) like I defended Gudbranson deal. The losing team on trade day got NHL players. The winners got higher upside prospects. Cant just assume the best for the prospects because more than 50% fail to make 200 NHL games

If this is the deal that set Chiarelli in place and taught him a lesson, then Id actually rather him make this trade and learn the lessons vs actually losing a deal by trading an established NHL for peanuts

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

I hav eno idea why Barzal always gets brought up as I would not have picked him, regardless though Barzal is not at all being compared to any of the players you listed that I've seen. The oilers traded two high draft picks so those picks are long shots and garbage, the oilers make some picks and they are steals with a big future.

If the Oilers had made those picks you can be 100% sure this forum would be salivating all over them as prime prospects, yes even barzal.

The Oilers are like the anti-King Midas. Everything they touch turns to ****.

 

[Aceboogie]

If that is the case then I have totally over estimated the quality of our GM. He was sold a bill of goods that this guy was ready to play. The fact that the usual suspects are still with this team is very troubling.

He was considered NHL ready by numerous media folk and even bloggers for Islanders farm team. It was a reasonable bet he could make jump

Given the state of FA and the absence of any D trades after draft day, If Chiarelli had not made that trade and Sekera had signed elsewhere we would have had literally zero D upgrades.

 

[Oilhawks]

I dont think he was told to make the pick. I think he walked into draft with high hopes of landing Hamilton and came damn close until last second. It could have came down to literally minutes when things flipped

Then you have Chiarelli there at draft table with moveable picks, Hamilton is gone, no other D is available for that price and you have your head scout, former magement, and hell maybe even owner saying "Oh damn, Hamiltons gone, look REINHART is really good, like really good, weve scouted him for years, hes legit"

And Chiarelli has to weigh their input versus fact he must make a deal to make a splash now. Once 16th overall is moved (or picked) a the best avenue to acquire a D is gone.

Judging by fact Hamilton and Reinhart were only D traded last year IIRC (Zadorov but in package). It could be, overpay for Reinhart or go into July 1 with only hope you can sign a UFA. You are not able- you go into September 1 with zero new D. So Reinhart or not much else

Nailed it. I can't imagine what fans would be saying had Chiarelli stayed the course and just drafted BPA.

 

[Hynh]

Nailed it. I can't imagine what fans would be saying had Chiarelli stayed the course and just drafted BPA.

I get the feeling we'll know in a couple weeks. Except the BPA part of course.

 

[Aceboogie]

Nailed it. I can't imagine what fans would be saying had Chiarelli stayed the course and just drafted BPA.

Yeah exactly. Its not like D were flying around last year and Chiarelli selected Reinhart over all these D. It was severely slim pickings

The 2 biggest arguments against the trade, specifically the cost are:

1) We COULD have picked 2 really good prospects and then flipped them for D in future. Ok. well what is stopping them from dealing a prospect or young player right now. Is Jones or Bear really worth that much less. There is other assets to trade, these prospects wouldnt be only one. hell our 2017 1st is worth about as much, what is stopping us from dealing that?

2) They COULD turn into great players a top 6 replacements Ok. Well what about recent 1st round picks on our own team. MPS/Gagner/Schremp. All were mega hyped and ripped up junior or lower leagues. Or what about other hyped forwards in that rnage that amounted to nothing? Odds are hevaily against them to turn into top 6 players. Odds are theyll be replacement level depth players or not make NHL at all.

We have almost a similar chance of winning this trade as we do losing it. It was a bad gamble and we should have stayed put. But nothing is set in stone yet

 

[Aceboogie]

Ill stop talking about Reinhart deal because it got this thread off topic. I feel weird defending that trade because I was probably most vocal detractor when it happened. Guys like Reinhart dont become #3 D

But to see how big of a loss people are making this trade out to be, I just have to defend him to a small a degree. The trade hasnt even negatively affected us and might never

But you see people saying like: "Oh yeah heres a list of all Chiarelli good moves, hes done some good trades, good signings and contracts, good drafting..... BUT he made that Reinhart deal so ill throw away this list and say all is lost and Chiarelli is poor"

 

[Cloned]

OP did you take this idea from the Canucks board?

Because I can guarantee no matter how bad Chiarelli does, it will not cause the level of frustration that Canucks fans are feeling about Benningningning.

 

[Hynh]

Ok. well what is stopping them from dealing a prospect or young player right now.

The general shortage of prospects the Oilers have. They either traded or ****ed up a ton of second round picks from 2007 to present.

2007, traded up for Riley Nash, who would later be traded for the Marincin pick
2009, Lander
2010, Pitlick and Hamilton. Marincin too but Chiarelli traded him for nothing
2011, Musil
2012, Moroz
2013, Roy. The other pick was traded down after MacTavish didn't get Fucale
2014, traded, became part of the Reinhart trade
2015, traded for Reinhart

Those picks were 36, 40, 31, 46, 48 31, 32, 37, 33 and 33. And they got NOTHING from them.

 

[Aceboogie]

The general shortage of prospects the Oilers have. They either traded or ****ed up a ton of second round picks from 2007 to present.

2007, traded up for Riley Nash, who would later be traded for the Marincin pick
2009, Lander
2010, Pitlick and Hamilton. Marincin too but Chiarelli traded him for nothing
2011, Musil
2012, Moroz
2013, Roy. The other pick was traded down after MacTavish didn't get Fucale
2014, traded, became part of the Reinhart trade
2015, traded for Reinhart

Those picks were 36, 40, 31, 46, 48 31, 32, 37, 33 and 33. And they got NOTHING from them.

They have Jones, Bear, Paigin, Lagesson right now as valuable prospects in junior/KHL. Either making their clubs WJC/WC team or putting in big years

 

[Beerfish]

He was considered NHL ready by numerous media folk and even bloggers for Islanders farm team. It was a reasonable bet he could make jump

Given the state of FA and the absence of any D trades after draft day, If Chiarelli had not made that trade and Sekera had signed elsewhere we would have had literally zero D upgrades.

It's the GM's job to be right not wrong and media guys and bloggers have about as much relevance as us on here pumping up our own prospects.

 

[Beerfish]

They have Jones, Bear, Paigin, Lagesson right now as valuable prospects in junior/KHL. Either making their clubs WJC/WC team or putting in big years

These guys are longer shots than what you would have gotten earlier. Virtually every oiler pick that was in junior people have loved until they get to the ahl where they fail.

 

[Aceboogie]

These guys are longer shots than what you would have gotten earlier. Virtually every oiler pick that was in junior people have loved until they get to the ahl where they fail.

Thats not the point (even tho Marincin, Davidson, Reider, Gustavsfsson have gone on to NHL career). The point is that they are valuable prospects and could be used to trade for NHL players. If people are claiming we got totally screwed because we gave up prospects that could be used to get NHL D, then it would hold true we could use current prospects as well. All 3 have performed up to 1st round pick levels in draft +1, and all are valuable. Would you really say that Bear + 2nd is that much less valuable than 16th overall or Barzal? I wouldnt

Ill respond to my own post because I know what youll say

UH what? All Oilers prospects are garbage, remember Martin Gernat? The fact is all the prospects are for sure busts, way to over hyped. If they were other teasm prospects theyd be good, but doomed here. Barzal could land you Shattenkirk straight up if we had him

 

[Aceboogie]

It's the GM's job to be right not wrong and media guys and bloggers have about as much relevance as us on here pumping up our own prospects.

And he was wrong. He made a gamble and he was wrong. So be it. He deserves criticism for the move 100%. But it doesnt define his entire tenure here

I made this analogy before and ill post it again

We went to 7/11 and exchanged some lotto 649 tickets for a Big Gulp. Could we have bought a big gulp for $2? sure. Could we lose 20 million? well yes we could, but with ver small odds. Chances are that lotto ticket will win $10 in the distant future and we get a free Big Gulp for right now. Right now everyone is assuming that ticket is a winner and ignoring the mass amount of failed lotto tickets

 

[Hynh]

They have Jones, Bear, Paigin, Lagesson right now as valuable prospects in junior/KHL. Either making their clubs WJC/WC team or putting in big years

That's like saying "I'm not broke, I've got $100 under the mattress". The Oilers prospect pool lacks pedigree, NA professional experience and diversity of position. It looks like that of a contender that has went all-in too many times, not a team that has been getting high draft positions for years.

And he was wrong. He made a gamble and he was wrong. So be it. He deserves criticism for the move 100%. But it doesnt define his entire tenure here

I made this analogy before and ill post it again

We went to 7/11 and exchanged some lotto 649 tickets for a Big Gulp. Could we have bought a big gulp for $2? sure. Could we lose 20 million? well yes we could, but with ver small odds. Chances are that lotto ticket will win $10 in the distant future and we get a free Big Gulp for right now. Right now everyone is assuming that ticket is a winner and ignoring the mass amount of failed lotto tickets

Terrible analogy. While there are outside factors, drafting and developing is a repeatable skill.

 

[Aceboogie]

That's like saying "I'm not broke, I've got $100 under the mattress". The Oilers prospect pool lacks pedigree, NA professional experience and diversity of position. It looks like that of a contender that has went all-in too many times, not a team that has been getting high draft positions for years.



Terrible analogy. While there are outside factors, drafting and developing is a repeatable skill.

Oh yeah? Why has literally no team ever demonstrated this repeatable skill? Red Wings are the golden child for drafting and developing. Besides Larkin, they have yet to pick a consistent top 6 NHL player since 2009. The Wings were atrocious at picking in the 3 years before Datsyuk/Zetterberg picks (and horrible picks in those years too) as well as 3 years after. Then went on a run of 5 hot years picking studs, then dry again for 5 years. Is that a sign of a repeatable skill?

Why is statisically shown that picks in 10-20 range on average turn into marginal NHLers?Youd think a team could repeat drfat successes in multiple years

16th overall

Average Rating: 4.12
Best: Markus Naslund, Vladimir Tarasenko, Nick Leddy
Worst: Nick Stajduhar, Mario Larocque, Alex Bourret
Ranked 7 or better: 23.8%
Ranked 5 or worse: 66.7%
At least 100 NHL games (or extremely likely): 61.9%

10 - Generational
9 - Elite Player
8 - First Line, Top Pair D
7 - Top Six Forward, Top Four D
6 - Top Nine Forward, Top Six D
5 - NHL Regular, 350+ NHL games
4 - Fringe NHLer, 200+ NHL games
3 - Very Good Minor Leaguer, 50-200 NHL games
2 - Minor Leaguer, under 50 NHL games
1 - 10 or fewer NHL games

http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-expected-value-of-nhl-draft-picks-1.317819

And are we really worried about what NYI is going to do with the pick. This is the team that has picked MDC (bust), Strome (Bust), Reinhart (ahead of Rielly AND Lindholm), Niedreitter (traded for a 4th liner), Bailey, Nokelienan and O'Marra in first round. You can be rest assured they arent model for drafting, either is Edmonton

 

[ChaoticOrange]

OP did you take this idea from the Canucks board?

Because I can guarantee no matter how bad Chiarelli does, it will not cause the level of frustration that Canucks fans are feeling about Benningningning.

Perhaps.

Although if Benning improves the Canucks defence more than Chia improves ours, overpayment or no overpayment, the honeymoon period will be officially kaput.

 

[Hynh]

Oh yeah? Why has literally no team ever demonstrated this repeatable skill? Red Wings are the golden child for drafting and developing. Besides Larkin, they have yet to pick a consistent top 6 NHL player since 2009. The Wings were atrocious at picking in the 3 years before Datsyuk/Zetterberg picks (and horrible picks in those years too) as well as 3 years after. Then went on a run of 5 hot years picking studs, then dry again for 5 years. Is that a sign of a repeatable skill?

If there is nothing repeatable about drafting then why not just pick the kid with the coolest name? Personally I think Charles-Édouard D'Astous is a cool name, let's take him 4th overall. It's all luck, he has an equal chance of being just as good as Chychrun.

Why do the Oilers always have garbage prospects that can't hack it in the AHL (and often, the CHL)? Is if just bad luck? Us poor Oiler fans, what are the odds that fate would conspire against us every single year? What did we do to have this curse placed on us for the past 30 years?

Or maybe the Oilers make a habit of acquiring players that do not project to be NHLers. Players like Reinhart, Barker, Musil and Moroz.

Why is statisically shown that picks in 10-20 range on average turn into marginal NHLers?Youd think a team could repeat drfat successes in multiple years

Because you're averaging multiple teams of varying philosophy/skill and multiple years of varying talent. Some teams routinely produce prospects of interest. Not necessarily NHLers but players worth trading real assets for. Some teams routinely produce Mitch Moroz.

Remember, in 10 years those "projected values" are going to include Don Sweeney's idiocy last year.

And are we really worried about what NYI is going to do with the pick. This is the team that has picked MDC (bust), Strome (Bust), Reinhart (ahead of Rielly AND Lindholm), Niedreitter (traded for a 4th liner), Bailey, Nokelienan and O'Marra in first round. You can be rest assured they arent model for drafting, either is Edmonton

Let me get this straight. The Reinhart trade is OK because we gave the picks to the team that was dumb enough to draft Reinhart? At least at 18 there was hope that Reinhart could become something more than a pylon. Who is more the fool, the fool that drafts a bust or the fool that overpays for said bust once he has already traveled nine tenths of the way to bust town?

Maybe I'll try another angle. It's okay to waste assets as long as the other team doesn't improve? I had forgot that the Oilers were trying to ruin other teams, not improve their own.

Here's a third take, based on your entire post. "since drafting is completely random, let's smother the Islanders in draft picks and force them to suffer from all that evil luck ahahaha".

 

[Mr Positive]

B+

Let me put it this way: I'm not pleased with the final result in the standings, but I like the individual moves he's made for the most part. If someone asked me who I would want to be GM for my team this offseason and beyond, I would say Chiarelli no question, and to me that means he gets a pretty high grade. I gave him the max grade I would give to a GM that didn't cause a huge leap in the standings.

I think there were factors holding us back that were out of Chiarelli's control. The rest of the Pacific division upgraded their rosters more than other divisions did. Also, we had a statistically unlikely amount of injuries. I thought Chiarelli did an admirable job making mid-season moves to try and compensate for this, but it's next to impossible to replace a guy like Klefbom or McDavid.