Percentage of goals top scorers have been in on

[brian_griffin]

Someone has to score goals on this team. Not hard to understand.

Water...

yes, the point leader on a crap offensive team will be high on point % leaguewide

...is still wet.

Then that sort of undermines the argument, no? That Drew and Girgensons would also be in the top-30. (By the way, why aren't they on the list? Did you anticipate them being there would reveal the weakness of the argument?) And, to everyone else's point, is it all that surprising that a guy who leads the forwards in ESTOI and PPTOI leads the team in points and goals on which he acquired a point? Especially on this pop-gun offensive team?

He simply took the leading scorer for each of the 30 teams and divided his indivudal points by the team's total goals.

I know it hurts your soul that he is succeeding.

To your original post, the failure to adjust for games missed due to injury isn't what keeps this analysis from being scientific.

Think of the possible outcomes from this analysis. There are two factors, (1) total points by leading scorer, and (2) total team goals. The outcomes A,B,C,D:

--------Individual
-------Low---High
T----------------
E--Low--A----B
A--------------
M-High--C----D

A. Middle value outcome.
B. High value outcome. (Ennis' case, as Moskau and 0PT note.)
C. Low value outcome.
D. Middle value outcome.

To your assertion the analysis shows Ennis is "succeeding"...doesn't it simply show on a low-offense team he has the highest percentage contribution to total team goals???

Might not a more powerful assertion (yet still weak and flawed) be made by computing this "Stokes Ratio" for Ennis for a series of seasons, and seeing if the ratio is higher this season than in past?

Of course, being such a simple metric, it doesn't normalize for TOI, quality of linemate, quality of competition, etc., which is why those other stats are kept more rigorously and held in higher regard. But I state the obvious.

tl;dr "Why in the name of Robert Gordon Orr didn't Thomas Vanek win the 2007 Frank J. Selke award?"

 

[stokes84]

The point is that the kid has done a pretty admirable job with very little supporting talent. It's not to say he's some kind of star or anything, just that he's having a pretty good year given the circumstances.

It's pretty amusing watching the usual haters come out and attempt to rip him down. Maybe if their guy was having a better year than Leino did last year, they wouldn't be so bitter.

 

[Moskau]

Team depth is why guys like Ray Ferrarro and Donald Audette were able to put up over a PPG on those awful Atlanta teams. Somebody on the team will end up being the bulk of your points or your team would win 0 games a season.

 

[Zip15]

30 teams are represented. As I pointed out. If you extrapolated it out to include the entire league, Ennis would be in the top 15. Stafford and Girgensons would not be anywhere close, so no, it doesn't hurt my argument at all. In fact, it would probably be much stronger.

Ennis is the leading scorer on an historically low-scoring team. This speaks less to him than it does the rest of the roster. I don't anticipate you agreeing with that any time soon.

Sigh.... No. This list doesn't include people like Stamkos, Kucherov, Okposo, etc, etc. That have higher rates than that, but lower the Ennis.

Usually, having other offensive players on your team boosts your numbers.

It cuts both ways. If you have other lines scoring, it will also lead to a diminished number in this stat because you won't be contributing to those goals.

The point is that the kid has done a pretty admirable job with very little supporting talent. It's not to say he's some kind of star or anything, just that he's having a pretty good year given the circumstances.

Admirable? Holy hyperbole.

Ennis has done a nice job this year, though moreso on the PP and less so at ES. That's about where I'll stop.

It's pretty amusing watching the usual haters come out and attempt to rip him down. Maybe if their guy was having a better year than Leino did last year, they wouldn't be so bitter.

The haterz! Come on. You tried to trump up this stat, which doesn't mean a whole lot in the grand scheme beyond that he's the highest scorer on a low-scoring team--and, FFS, he should be, he gets the most ESTOI and PPTOI amongst forwards.

 

[Samsonite23]

The point is that the kid has done a pretty admirable job with very little supporting talent. It's not to say he's some kind of star or anything, just that he's having a pretty good year given the circumstances.

It's pretty amusing watching the usual haters come out and attempt to rip him down. Maybe if their guy was having a better year than Leino did last year, they wouldn't be so bitter.

The point is that you made a thread with pretty weird, pointless stats to give praise to your favorite player who's doing a "pretty admirable" job.

You call everybody without undying love for Ennis "haters."

 

[Moskau]

It's kind of funny that Drew Stafford is like 3 points away from being higher than Ennis on this list... the same Drew Stafford who wont even be offered a $1 Million contract this off season. How can you say Ennis is doing an admirable job when he's barely out producing the soon to be jobless Drew Stafford?

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

The Ducks are on there twice (Getz + Kesler), so it's not only one player from each team. You must be missing a team.

 

[stokes84]

Not one person can say, "wow, he's actually played pretty well this year". I feel pretty vindicated. Par for the course around here.

 

[stokes84]

The Ducks are on there twice (Getz + Kesler), so it's not only one player from each team. You must be missing a team.

Sorry, that should be Kessel.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

The point is that the kid has done a pretty admirable job with very little supporting talent. It's not to say he's some kind of star or anything, just that he's having a pretty good year given the circumstances.

It's pretty amusing watching the usual haters come out and attempt to rip him down. Maybe if their guy was having a better year than Leino did last year, they wouldn't be so bitter.

That's the problem with your post - most people don't have a "their guy" who they pump up and support through thick and thin. We watch and have different opinions about players as the progress/regress.

 

[stokes84]

It's kind of funny that Drew Stafford is like 3 points away from being higher than Ennis on this list... the same Drew Stafford who wont even be offered a $1 Million contract this off season. How can you say Ennis is doing an admirable job when he's barely out producing the soon to be jobless Drew Stafford?

7 more points. That's Cody Hodgson's entire season.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Not one person can say, "wow, he's actually played pretty well this year". I feel pretty vindicated. Par for the course around here.

He hasn't wowed anyone, that's why. What he does make me say is: "huh, he might actually have a place on this team when we're a real contender in a 3 years after all."

 

[Samsonite23]

7 more points. That's Cody Hodgson's entire season.

In 5 less games. While being much better defensively.

 

[stokes84]

In 5 less games. While being much better defensively.

Oh right, that's why he's been benched time and time again. Keep running with that false narrative though.

 

[Samsonite23]

Oh right, that's why he's been benched time and time again. Keep running with that false narrative though.

Ok I'm done. You honestly don't have a clue what you're talking about.

I've had this "defense" conversation with you before and you don't know what it is apparently.

 

[Zip15]

Not one person can say, "wow, he's actually played pretty well this year". I feel pretty vindicated. Par for the course around here.

Ennis has done a nice job this year, though moreso on the PP and less so at ES. That's about where I'll stop.

I guess I didn't go far enough for you.

7 more points. That's Cody Hodgson's entire season.

Staff has been quite a bit better at ES (1.73 ES pts/60 vs 1.29 ES pts/60), and Drew's top two forward linemates at ES are Deslauriers and Hodgson.

 

[stokes84]

Ok I'm done. You honestly don't have a clue what you're talking about.

Please enlighten me on how Stafford and his 9 takeaways have blown the door off of Ennis defensively. Honestly, I'm looking forward to this argument.

 

[Zip15]

Oh right, that's why he's been benched time and time again. Keep running with that false narrative though.

Speaking of false narratives, Stafford is 4th amongst forwards in TOI/game. The top three, of course, comprise the top line. Seems about right for a 2nd line player.

 

[Samsonite23]

Please enlighten me on how Stafford and his 9 takeaways have blown the door off of Ennis defensively. Honestly, I'm looking forward to this argument.

You just proved my point. You look at a random takeaway stat and think that defines being good or bad defensively.

 

[stokes84]

I guess I didn't go far enough for you.


.

I guess I was so caught on you saying "holy hyperbole!" To the use of "admirable."

 

[stokes84]

You just proved my point. You look at a random takeaway stat and think that defines being good or bad defensively.

It's a pretty darn good stat.

 

[enthusiast]

It's not really fair to compare the worst offensive team in modern history with past teams

we're witnessing a beautiful, unique, snowflake which we won't quite ever be able to understand absent of comparables

 

[thefifagod]

I take absolutely nothing away of value away from this. Ennis is getting the most minutes with the best linemates (who outscore him at even strength considering TOI), he should have the most points on the team. Ennis has been fine on the whole but making a comparison across the league doesn't tell us anything of value. The biggest takeaway from all of these posts is in Zip's when you look at the even strength differential between Stafford and Ennis. Considering linemates, I'm more impressed with what Stafford has done than Ennis.

 

[Samsonite23]

It's a pretty darn good stat.

Mhm. One guy skates fast at the guy with the puck while the other takes smart positions. One might get you more takeaways though.

 

[stokes84]

I take absolutely nothing away of value away from this. Ennis is getting the most minutes with the best linemates (who outscore him at even strength considering TOI), he should have the most points on the team. Ennis has been fine on the whole but making a comparison across the league doesn't tell us anything of value. The biggest takeaway from all of these posts is in Zip's when you look at the even strength differential between Stafford and Ennis. Considering linemates, I'm more impressed with what Stafford has done than Ennis.

That's right. PP points don't matter on this forum. Almost forgot. Even though Stafford has been on the 1st PP unit for much of the year. Don't worry about that though. Not important.