TSN: Pens waive DeSmith, Keep Jarry

[AjaxTelamon]

Just looking at some goaltender advanced stats, it looks to me like in the minutes they have both played, DeSmith has outperformed Murray over the past two seasons, to the degree where DeSmith is about 7% more likely than Murray to stop a shot of equal quality. Does that sound reasonable to you who have watched them both?

The issue with those stats is the how the team is playing in front of them. If/when the team plays solid, Murray is far better on his angles, stops pretty much all the shots he should, and will be competitive on high danger chances. But if your team is a sieve giving up odd-man breaks, not getting sticks in passing lanes, etc., CDS's athleticism helps him a lot. He's a spaz to watch, but he tends to get it done under poor circumstances.

For regular season Pens defense-optional hockey, CDS was a pretty good backup.

 

[DesertPenguin]

I think this is Jimmy R playing chess. He expects Marino to stay with the big club, and there's no reason to keep 9 D, so a D is going out.

My guess is he's dangling Jarry as a sweetener to take JJ. As it was, we were at risk of losing Jarry for nothing if he went on waivers and cleared. That put the pressure on the Pens to take a bad deal or lose Jarry for nothing. CDS will clear because he makes more than Jarry.

Watch CDS clear, and the Pens end up moving JJ, Jarry and a 2nd for a bag of pucks. CDS comes back up and all is well with the world

 

[froods]

I think this is Jimmy R playing chess. He expects Marino to stay with the big club, and there's no reason to keep 9 D, so a D is going out.

My guess is he's dangling Jarry as a sweetener to take JJ. As it was, we were at risk of losing Jarry for nothing if he went on waivers and cleared. That put the pressure on the Pens to take a bad deal or lose Jarry for nothing. CDS will clear because he makes more than Jarry.

Watch CDS clear, and the Pens end up moving JJ, Jarry and a 2nd for a bag of pucks. CDS comes back up and all is well with the world

JJ is gone. With Rust getting hurt, they are positioning to be to the upper limit to maximize LTI. Johnson will be traded by Friday.

 

[vikingGoalie]

The issue with those stats is the how the team is playing in front of them. If/when the team plays solid, Murray is far better on his angles, stops pretty much all the shots he should, and will be competitive on high danger chances. But if your team is a sieve giving up odd-man breaks, not getting sticks in passing lanes, etc., CDS's athleticism helps him a lot. He's a spaz to watch, but he tends to get it done under poor circumstances.

For regular season Pens defense-optional hockey, CDS was a pretty good backup.

sorry completely disagree here. if you are talking Stanley Cup Murray I agree. But if you are talking last season before he came back and went on a tear he was garbage. Statistically only Mike Smith was worse then Murray.

But... Murray came back and went into god mode for about a month. But when Murray was bad, he was really bad. Was it because he was injured? Was it because his head wasn't clear yet? Who knows.

But how a team plays in front of a goalie and how well the goalie play can be a complex chicken and egg problem. Your goalie struggles and the team starts trying to do too much and it all goes to hell quickly. Your goalie plays well and sees beach balls it makes your defense look great. Not saying our defense didn't look bad at times last year, but Murray did not help that, until he came back from injury and literally was maybe best in the league after being almost worst in the league.

This is why I don't want to lose DeSmith, we have a guy in Murray who is capable of being elite but has been inconsistent the last 2 seasons and the most injured goalie in the league. I'm hopeful that Murray puts together a good season this year. But I am a bit anxious on passing off 30 starts to Jarry.

 

[The Greatest 101]

I guess no one takes JJ. This move is a bit risky honestly. I don’t even think CDS is that great as a backup. Jarry is worse than him.

 

[froods]

I don’t dispute anything here about DeSmith being better, but this just feels like the right move. I think it is based on ceiling and my lack of trust in Murray. DeSmith might be the better backup, but I feel better turning to Jarry if we needed to.

 

[heysmilinstrange]

sorry completely disagree here. if you are talking Stanley Cup Murray I agree. But if you are talking last season before he came back and went on a tear he was garbage. Statistically only Mike Smith was worse then Murray.

But... Murray came back and went into god mode for about a month. But when Murray was bad, he was really bad. Was it because he was injured? Was it because his head wasn't clear yet? Who knows.

But how a team plays in front of a goalie and how well the goalie play can be a complex chicken and egg problem. Your goalie struggles and the team starts trying to do too much and it all goes to hell quickly. Your goalie plays well and sees beach balls it makes your defense look great. Not saying our defense didn't look bad at times last year, but Murray did not help that, until he came back from injury and literally was maybe best in the league after being almost worst in the league.

This is why I don't want to lose DeSmith, we have a guy in Murray who is capable of being elite but has been inconsistent the last 2 seasons and the most injured goalie in the league. I'm hopeful that Murray puts together a good season this year. But I am a bit anxious on passing off 30 starts to Jarry.

Murray's "hot streak" lasted much longer than a month, and I'd have to see some stats to show he's injured more often than someone like Corey Crawford, to use just one example.

 

[Speaking Moistly]

That's very true, yes. And why maybe it's just important to have a steady goaltender and not necessarily worry about having a dominant one.

It's always been an oddball position, to me. I admit. It just seems even more nebulous in recent years.

Oddball is right. I think it's just a weird position at the root of things. A goalie can steal games. A goalie can be perfect and if the skaters doesn't score at least 1 goal, a team still won't win a game. A bad goalie can absolutely lose games. A goalie can play all 60 minutes but they won't play every game and they won't be doing something for the whole 60 minutes. Throw in how random goalies seem to be and it's weird. You see it in how people talk about them sometimes. You know, "The team didn't deserve to win but the goalie did," the goalie is part of the team, they're not two separate entities. You don't really see people say that about skaters.

I wouldn't say it's any less important now, though. The Pens won in 2017 because of goaltending, Quick went on crazy runs, Price getting hurt derailed Montreal that year and Boston got to the SCF because of Rask. It's just a weird position to quantify and the players seem to fluctuate a lot. They also have simple but possibly misleading stats people can easily look at and think they're seeing the whole story.

I think the thing with goalies is that they at least need to not be their own worst enemy. We saw that with Fleury's disasters. Dominant is great but you at least need to not be self defeating. Goalies can go on hot streaks but the one having a panic attack in the crease isn't going to.

 

[Freeptop]

Well all I can say is I'll laugh at the GM's who pass on Casey and direly need him. There's no shortage of them.

While I won't guarantee he won't be claimed, this is the most likely time for him to be able to pass through waivers. For a team to claim him, they have to meet _all_ of the following criteria:
1. Don't already have a goaltender on their roster they like better
2. Aren't already at the 23 man roster limit, or have the ability to send someone down without needing waivers prior to 5pm tomorrow
3. Have 1.25M free in cap space, or the ability to get to that by 5pm tomorrow without needing to put anyone on waivers
4. Don't like Eric Comrie or Anton Forsberg better.
5. Aren't already at the 50 contract limit.

Oh, and they likely need to have a goaltender that doesn't need to clear waivers in order to get sent down, or else they're carrying 3 goalies past tomorrow's 5pm deadline to be cap and roster-size compliant, but that's not a strict criteria, if they have a spare roster spot and the cap space to accommodate DeSmith.

Oh, and they also have to be interested in potentially keeping DeSmith for three years. Not necessarily a deal-breaker, but likely to make some teams pause.

Most teams have selected their 23 man roster already. Grabbing DeSmith right now is basically the absolute hardest time to make a claim. That said, you never know when someone is going to go ahead and pull the trigger anyway.

 

[Pens x]

Jarry is not good

 

[AuroraBorealis]

While I won't guarantee he won't be claimed, this is the most likely time for him to be able to pass through waivers. For a team to claim him, they have to meet _all_ of the following criteria:
1. Don't already have a goaltender on their roster they like better
2. Aren't already at the 23 man roster limit, or have the ability to send someone down without needing waivers prior to 5pm tomorrow
3. Have 1.25M free in cap space, or the ability to get to that by 5pm tomorrow without needing to put anyone on waivers
4. Don't like Eric Comrie or Anton Forsberg better.
5. Aren't already at the 50 contract limit.

Oh, and they likely need to have a goaltender that doesn't need to clear waivers in order to get sent down, or else they're carrying 3 goalies past tomorrow's 5pm deadline to be cap and roster-size compliant, but that's not a strict criteria, if they have a spare roster spot and the cap space to accommodate DeSmith.

Oh, and they also have to be interested in potentially keeping DeSmith for three years. Not necessarily a deal-breaker, but likely to make some teams pause.

Most teams have selected their 23 man roster already. Grabbing DeSmith right now is basically the absolute hardest time to make a claim. That said, you never know when someone is going to go ahead and pull the trigger anyway.

You're giving me some hope here. But I look at a team like Colorado, for example. They haven't made their cuts yet.
Colorado Avalanche - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps
They got the cap room and a backup who's played 2 NHL games. Long term flexibility. Only 45/50 contracts. Sakic would be a fool to let this chance escape. They're in the Central for god's sake.
I don't know how a GM would like Forsberg better. He's .901 career. Comrie's played 5 NHL games and is .870.

Grubauer has yet to play over 37 games in a season. They need a reliable backup who is capable of playing 30+.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

sorry completely disagree here. if you are talking Stanley Cup Murray I agree. But if you are talking last season before he came back and went on a tear he was garbage. Statistically only Mike Smith was worse then Murray.

But... Murray came back and went into god mode for about a month. But when Murray was bad, he was really bad. Was it because he was injured? Was it because his head wasn't clear yet? Who knows.

But how a team plays in front of a goalie and how well the goalie play can be a complex chicken and egg problem. Your goalie struggles and the team starts trying to do too much and it all goes to hell quickly. Your goalie plays well and sees beach balls it makes your defense look great. Not saying our defense didn't look bad at times last year, but Murray did not help that, until he came back from injury and literally was maybe best in the league after being almost worst in the league.

This is why I don't want to lose DeSmith, we have a guy in Murray who is capable of being elite but has been inconsistent the last 2 seasons and the most injured goalie in the league. I'm hopeful that Murray puts together a good season this year. But I am a bit anxious on passing off 30 starts to Jarry.

Do you have an alarm on your computer that alerts you every time there's a discussion about Murray on HF?

 

[HandshakeLine]

Goalie stats are terrible and anyone pretending otherwise is just being disingenuous at best.

 

[Peat]

Just looking at some goaltender advanced stats, it looks to me like in the minutes they have both played, DeSmith has outperformed Murray over the past two seasons, to the degree where DeSmith is about 7% more likely than Murray to stop a shot of equal quality. Does that sound reasonable to you who have watched them both?

Not entirely. This team's tendency to play loosey-goosey isn't always caught by the shot analytics as lot of those breakaway/2 on 1s end up being just another scoring chance and they tend to play loosey-goosey a lot more in front of Murray than DeSmith. Murray's had a rougher go of it in that respect - I know you saw Bleedred's Stoppable Goals project which heavily suggested that Murray was playing better than his save percentage suggested last autumn, which was one of his worse runs.

Honestly if nothing else it's interesting in this thread to see the varying opinions on importance of goaltending in today's league and how much those opinions still seem to run the gamut.

Personally I feel like it's a position of de-emphasis in recent years. Though that doesn't mean you can get by with any old dingus in net.

Yeah, I always enjoy these ones for getting to see philosophies. To me its currently this weird position where you have to have it but predicting where it's going to come from is a crap shoot... but not enough of a crap shoot that you can't just roll the dice and go with it.

 

[vikingGoalie]

Do you have an alarm on your computer that alerts you every time there's a discussion about Murray on HF?

dang it you found me out. but to the point you disagree with what I'm saying? or are you just curious about my mad internet skills of scraping the world wide web for anything matt murray related?

Murray's injury history is a simple matter of record.
it's also a fact that DeSmith started 30 games last season.

I guess you are 100% ok with Jarry getting 30 starts? I'm in the camp that I think Jarry and 30 starts is a very unproven thing and most likely ends badly. DeSmith started 30 times last season and was quite competent at it. He's not gonna be a starter for us, just want someone where we are not giving away points when Murray is not in net. Hopefully Murray doesn't repeat his last several seasons and stays relatively healthy...

 

[UnrealMachine]

- Matt Murray had a .877 sv% through the first 11 games (1.5 months) last season.
- Matt Murray had a .930 sv% through the remaining 39 games (3.5 months) last season.

 

[Freeptop]

You're giving me some hope here. But I look at a team like Colorado, for example. They haven't made their cuts yet.
Colorado Avalanche - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps
They got the cap room and a backup who's played 2 NHL games. Long term flexibility. Only 45/50 contracts. Sakic would be a fool to let this chance escape. They're in the Central for god's sake.
I don't know how a GM would like Forsberg better. He's .901 career. Comrie's played 5 NHL games and is .870.

Grubauer has yet to play over 37 games in a season. They need a reliable backup who is capable of playing 30+.

Mostly I was thinking of Comrie, there. He's been a highly regarded prospect for a while. He didn't work out in Winnipeg, but that doesn't mean another team doesn't think they can do better with him.

In terms of the Avs - both the Avs' goaltenders would require waivers to be sent down.
CapFriendly's team pages also don't reflect which players are currently on waivers, since they can't be sent down yet. The Avs put Megna on waivers yesterday. Assuming they send him down, that leaves them with 14 forwards, 9 defensemen and 2 goaltenders - 25 players. They have to send down two more just to get under the roster limit, and they have exactly one forward and three defensemen who don't require waivers to get sent down - and one of those defensemen is Cale Makar, who they aren't going to send down. I'm reasonably sure Tyson Jost (the one forward) isn't getting sent down, either. They've got their roster set already. They'd have to like DeSmith quite a bit to decide to send down an additional player who had already earned their spot in camp just to carry 3 goaltenders long enough for Francouz to go through waivers.

It's definitely still possible, I'm just skeptical. We'll find out in a little over an hour, either way.

 

[Empoleon8771]

It makes sense, if DeSmith clears waivers and Jarry looks legit, you can trade Jarry for way more down the line.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Just looking at some goaltender advanced stats, it looks to me like in the minutes they have both played, DeSmith has outperformed Murray over the past two seasons, to the degree where DeSmith is about 7% more likely than Murray to stop a shot of equal quality. Does that sound reasonable to you who have watched them both?

No not really tbh

 

[Andy99]

I feel bad for DeSmith...not because he's anything more than a disposable backup but because he's the tax for really really bad cap mismanagement by the Pens...I feel for you bro as a former government employee...

 

[RSPens]

All the moves we *****ed about and discussed in the off-season and training camp will prove trivial if Jarry ****s the bed again.

You don't screw with the most important position on the team, especially when your starter is injury certified and you already have a cost-controlled .917 backup.

Most important position on the team? Really? When was the last time the vezina winning goalie won the cup? Or when was the last time one of the highest paid goalies in the league won a cup? Yes it is crucial to have a reliable starter, but they don't have to be the best in the league or even top 5 in the league to win. In fact it usually comes down to a somewhat average goalie have a hot streak at the right time. It's also more about how the defense plays in front of them. Of course this is all just my opinion.

 

[cvrle1]

CDS Goes through

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

IMO very lucky he cleared.

 

[Strakanator]

Jarry is still a question mark. He could end up being better than DeSmith. Desmith has a pretty small NHL sample size.

I would keep both goalies this year. Let’s see if DeSmith can repeat his performance.

 

[orby]

Rutherford's comments tell me they think that showcasing Jarry at the NHL level is going to make other teams see him as a potential starter and increase his trade value (maybe enough to get another team to take Johnson with him?). It doesn't sound like they want to get rid of Desmith.