Post-Game Talk: |Pens vs Cats| Loss | Save 15% or more of mistakes by switching from Letang

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Kap had all of us idiots fooled when we clowned on some ECHL nobodies in the pre-season. Talkin' about a big breakout, contract year. Oops, he's exactly the player Toronto dumped for cap clearance that our previous GM paid a scoring line player price for.

Yeah. This is generally what happens when I get excited about a player.

Perhaps a bit of insight into why I am the way I am haha

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Geno took some crucial face offs tonight, even with Sid in there, and he won majority of them

Well I'm glad, but that's hardly the norm for his career and a realistic expectation going forward. It's always been a weakness for him. This season is no different.

So it's just a faceoff thing?

It just seems like a diminishing returns idea for the sake of a like 4ish percent bump in faceoffs. No disrespect I just don't get it.

Nearly 12% gap, not 4.

I would do the same thing if I was Sullivan. If you have 2 centers why not use the better one in the circle, especially if sustained zone time has been a problem for L2? It makes perfect sense.

What do you mean "diminishing returns"? They simply swap spots like 2 seconds after the draw. Where's the harm?

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Yeah. This is generally what happens when I get excited about a player.

Perhaps a bit of insight into why I am the way I am haha

I mean, I was pretty damn stoked when we landed both Zucker and Kap. Not the price we paid, but the players themselves were guys I thought would come in and add some speed and scoring depth.

That's why I hope the next big addition, if it happens, is someone I don't have on my radar at all. I'm done being invested in potential additions. Though I was pretty in on Bennett and he's been great--but who knows how he'd have played out on this team with this coach.

 

[Andy99]

I think we always knew that this team would eventually need help, or some of the kids to step up. One can debate endlessly whether any kids have gotten the chance to do so, or should have had it, but fact is that we are good, but not good enough to likely make it far beyond getting lucky with matchups. As presently constructed.

Given the standings and us more or less being locked in with a 1st round matchup with the Rangers or Caps, I don't care much when changes are made, as long as they are made. I understand why Hextall would want to wait until he saw where the team is at, where Malkin would be at, whether Kappy or others would re-find themselves etc, and ultimately hardly any team has made any meaningful trades yet.
Toffoli to Calgary stands out as more or less the only one, and it is not because no other team than the Pens know that they need to/should do something eventually.

The point is that WHEN Hextall acts, moves have to be right.

There are many ways I would ideally like to improve, but obviously we must have a winger that helps Geno. That's the first point because it is ridiculous to waste one of our primary weapons like this.
Another issue is that we are short on speed and size/physicality both up front and on D. It's hard to solve both, but you need to have more tone setting or "hard to play" qualities than we do, and whereas most of our players are good players who could blend in on almost any roster, too many have no peak qualities and as a group come to look bland and pedestrian.

We don't have the futures to go out and trade for all that we need, and we are not close enough for an all-in mentality.

What I hope for is that Hextall - recognizing this - will accomplish being both a buyer and a seller at the same time.
Get upgrades while dealing roster players with a pick or prospect attached as rentals to pay for those, and in turn create cap flexibility for next year.

Kapanen is obviously the first one who should go. It's selling low and all, but he is just looking SO lost. Erod might make some sense as a versatile depth guy for some playoff team, and as much as that is also his role with us, in no way is he an important part of the solution when we are not short a C (or two).
Petterson would be a prime candidate, but honestly looking at the team and how Dumo looks these days, if there's a team that would pay a rental return on Dumo, I'd be very interested. In any event, it could be either of them, but of course we'd need a top4 caliber guy added if we do so.

In short, whether it is a winger who can play with Malkin or a RW for Sid who can get Rusty moved down, we need a top6 winger. Beyond that we need to replace a meh! player or two with some who are non-meh!

Still think we can be good when it matters, but some pieces of the puzzle needs changing.

great pep talk…unfortunately “bland and pedestrian “ is Sullivan’s middle name…and “first round exit” is his mother’s surname…lol

 

[vodeni]

Malkin on the wing? Seriously?

What is that supposed to solve? How exactly would that make us more than a one line team? Does anyone honestly think Malkin playing at center is the problem?

A suggestion like that deserves nothing but indignant rhetorical questions.

Geno's 5 on 5 expexted goals is 54%, the actual goals are 44% Sid in comparision has expected goals at 55% but goals are 60%

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

The harm is that he's always looked significantly worse on the wing. I'm not just being negative... that's the simple truth. It never ever has worked out "Oh this guy just takes the draws then everything back to normal." Malkin ends up standing around in the NZ looking lost and generally, well... diminished. Telling a lifelong center and HOF player that he isn't good enough to do it anymore is also just a bad idea for confidence. And Malkin has always thrived on being relied upon and having more responsibility in his role on the team.

Again if that's something they determine to be prudent moving ahead after this season and the team thinks it's for the best and he is receptive to it then OK. But I don't think they should be messing around with it, now. And I don't like any of the options that he would potentially match up with rn in that role, anyway. That's just pretty much where I'm at on that.

EDIT: It's a bit like the "split powerplays" idea. Maybe sounds good on paper... never actually works out the way you want it to.

 

[Andy99]

Dumo's been garbage too often and I'm a little surprised people don't call it out more often. He's been especially bad with the puck in his own zone this season. He's been responsible for multiple scoring chances against (a lot resulting in goals against) because of turnovers where he's under zero pressure but decides to pass it to the other team because of an attempted risky pass.

let’s face it…there’s just not enough players on this team having great or even really good seasons…

 

[canadianguy77]

Kap can be effective in this league. I just don’t think it will be with a puck-possession type team because he’s terrible at reads in both zones. His best bet for his career is to somehow end up with a young team that relies on transition offense. And having a center who really shoulders the grunt work would go a long way too.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I think we have a shot to escape the 1st round. Maybe not a great shot, but a shot nonetheless. It's pretty much all on Jarry though. He's gotta win the goalie duel with probably the runaway Vezina winner and a guy who has as good an argument as anyone for Hart. But simply getting out of the 1st round ain't shit when you're at this stage of the era. There's no moral victories, no "we'll build on it moving forward and use the experience to be better moving forward" stuff with a 35 year old core that has this many hard miles as these guys do, and two of 'em up for what's shaping up to be ugly, or at least contentious contract negotiations.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Kap can be effective in this league. I just don’t think it will be with a puck-possession type team because he’s terrible at reads in both zones. His best bet for his career is to somehow end up with a young team that relies on transition offense. And having a center who really shoulders the grunt work would go a long way too.

Yeah. Dude is all or nothing, 100% "cheat up ice and try for breakaways/chances off odd-man rushes" imo. As soon as he has to do stuff with the team having established zone possession, he's just a nothingmancer.

 

[Dennis Reynolds]

Listening to Mears try to pronounce "Luostarinen" is embarrassing. He's never once come close.

 

[Coastal Kev]

The Penguins rank 29th in team finishing, eh?

Boy... coulda fooled me!

 

[AuroraBorealis]

The harm is that he's always looked significantly worse on the wing. I'm not just being negative... that's the simple truth. It never ever has worked out "Oh this guy just takes the draws then everything back to normal." Malkin ends up standing around in the NZ looking lost and generally, well... diminished. Telling a lifelong center and HOF player that he isn't good enough to do it anymore is also just a bad idea for confidence. And Malkin has always thrived on being relied upon and having more responsibility in his role on the team.

Again if that's something they determine to be prudent moving ahead after this season and the team thinks it's for the best and he is receptive to it then OK. But I don't think they should be messing around with it, now. And I don't like any of the options that he would potentially match up with rn in that role, anyway. That's just pretty much where I'm at on that.

EDIT: It's a bit like the "split powerplays" idea. Maybe sounds good on paper... never actually works out the way you want it to.

I mean Malkin's a big boy. He knows it's not a strength of his and Carter's great at it. He's a team-first guy, and will accept it without complaint. Highly doubt this would hurt his confidence.

Why would he stand in the neutral zone looking lost? Carter's first move after the draw would be going near the wall and Malkin would take the middle. This would happen after every faceoff basically. Maybe slight variance sometimes if the draw is won in the feet of the wingers, but it's not so different from 2 point men on the PP crossing over. This is done a lot when guys get kicked out of the circle and the winger steps in. It's not a big deal.

There is no problem here. Most draws squirt out to the point men. I don't see why it wouldn't work, and there's no good reason not to do it. L2 is struggling and they need every edge.

 

[Pens x]

Check out the stat line for the following guys in the last 20 games:

Kapanen - 1G, 6A
Carter - 2G, 7A
Rodrigues - 1G, 4A
McGinn - 2G, 2A
Simon - 2G, 0A
Aston-Reese - 0G 2A

That's a combined 8 goals in 120 games from these guys.

Sure, Letang had a stinker tonight. But half of the forwards on this team have been total offensive ghosts for ~1/2 of the season. This concerns me much more than some boneheaded plays by Letang.

Who signed/re-signed most of these players? I forget.

 

[Pens x]

----- Secondary scoring is nonexistent. That's pretty much all I care about harping on because it's downright pathetic at this point how little offense we've been getting from anyone not GCR or Malkin.

If Hextall doesn't fix this by the deadline, 100% guarantee we see another first round exit, and probably in embarrassing fashion.

Half of this board will still give him a free pass to continue to do nothing. He’s a builder!

Our clown GM was praised for his bottom six signings when they were all playing well. When do we criticize him for these guys all vanishing for months?

 

[ColePens]

+ I think Florida is a fantastic team. I really do. If we don't win the Cup, I am rooting for them
- I had to use a public restroom. EWWWW

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

This team is not nearly as good as they think they are.

 

[FreeBobbyFarnham]

This team is not nearly as good as they think they are.

Don't tell Kappy that. In his head he's Jagr.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Geno's 5 on 5 expexted goals is 54%, the actual goals are 44% Sid in comparision has expected goals at 55% but goals are 60%

Crosby's actual goals have always exceeded his expected goals. More of a flaw in the metric than him getting lucky

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Kap can be effective in this league. I just don’t think it will be with a puck-possession type team because he’s terrible at reads in both zones. His best bet for his career is to somehow end up with a young team that relies on transition offense. And having a center who really shoulders the grunt work would go a long way too.

The big issue with Kapanen is he's terrible at any sort of cycle game and doesn't seem to go to the net. It's like he circles around the high slot/faceoff circles waiting for someone to get him the puck for an open, long-range shot, but absolutely refuses to go to the net and bang in ugly/dirty goals.

 

[Gurglesons]

It’s so funny how our media acts like L1 and L4 are powerhouse lines and L2 and L3 are trash. Granted L1 was great tonight. But Jesus Christ L4 sucks ass. Move Blueger up to L3 with Carter and McGinn and Role the ZAR - Boyle - Simon line next game.

Scratch Kappy and go Heinen - Malkin - Rodrigues

 

[Gurglesons]

+ I think Florida is a fantastic team. I really do. If we don't win the Cup, I am rooting for them
- I had to use a public restroom. EWWWW

I know you were spending a lot of times in doors due to COVID. Glad to hear you could make it out.

 

[Zirakzigil]

Well I'm glad, but that's hardly the norm for his career and a realistic expectation going forward. It's always been a weakness for him. This season is no different.


View attachment 513929
Nearly 12% gap, not 4.

I would do the same thing if I was Sullivan. If you have 2 centers why not use the better one in the circle, especially if sustained zone time has been a problem for L2? It makes perfect sense.

What do you mean "diminishing returns"? They simply swap spots like 2 seconds after the draw. Where's the harm?

I hate stats like that, its really deceiving, thats like looking at save percentage, GAA, shooting percentage, etc. You really need to filter it into a minimum games played or amount taken or something like that to be viable. Taking 2-3 faceoffs a game is way different than taking 10-15 a game. Way to easy to manipulate the stats without a minimum amount of data. Its why I dont like comparing faceoff stats unless its comparing players who primarily play center or goalie stats unless they are starters.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

First period gave me the scaries. Florida brought it. Defensively as a team we could hardly keep up. Glad it settled down some.

This team is in trouble if they can’t find secondary scoring. I really think it could go a long way to add someone- that plus Zucker (assuming Kap out) bumps everyone down a peg and theoretically into easier situations.

Maybe and hopefully I’m wrong, but idk if this team can make noise if they don’t find that scoring.

 

[JRS91]

They need some secondary scoring if they want any chance of winning when it matters.

Kapanen has one goal in his last 17 games. Simon has one goal in his last 19 games. Rodrigues has one goal in his past 25 games. Carter has two goals in his past 23 games. McGinn has one goal in his past 16 games. Heinen has one goal in his past 11 games. Aston-Reese has one goal in 50 games. Marino has one goal in 58 games.

You aren't going to win with streaky, inconsistent wingers. I get it, you can't have a roster full of Crosby, Malkin or Guentzel. If the Penguins lose Rust, they definitely need to allocate whatever cap room they save or have left in making sure they don't give it to guys like Kapanen or Zucker. I'll forgive Heinen, McGinn and Simon. Simon has never been a goal scorer. Heinen is on a cheap contract and when he has scored it has been in bunches and McGinn is a solid defensive forward.