Post-Game Talk: Pens eaten by desert dogs

[Gurglesons]

Bryan Rust Stats And News

Get all the latest stats, news, videos, and more on Bryan Rust.

www.nhl.com

Last 5 seasons:

283 GP
104 Goals
227 Points
+40

You're totally out to lunch on Rust's value. Don't conflate "HFPens whipping boy" with what anyone outside this virtual sphere thinks. I mean, you can, but it would be dumb.

The issue isn’t Rust as a player the issue is he is 32 and has three years left.

 

[ChaosAgent]

The issue isn’t Rust as a player the issue is he is 32 and has three years left.

Yes, I am sure that no 32-year old wingers averaging 30G and 65P per 82 will get 4 year, $20.5M contracts this offseason.

Unmovable albatross.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

The issue isn't Rust's value.

It's Rust's willingness to waive his full NMC.

The number of teams he'd be willing to go to AND have the space to acquire him is likely quite small.

 

[ChaosAgent]

The issue isn't Rust's value.

It's Rust's willingness to waive his full NMC.

The number of teams he'd be willing to go to AND have the space to acquire him is likely quite small.

There would clearly be salary coming back for Rust, just given where the cap is.

Yes, the NMC is the limiter. But his value is higher now than it will be in 2 years regardless.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

There would clearly be salary coming back for Rust, just given where the cap is.

Yes, the NMC is the limiter. But his value is higher now than it will be in 2 years regardless.

Which goes back to the willingness. He just signed the deal last year. There may be any number of considerations he won't want to waive his NMC, even to a strong contender.

 

[BusinessGoose]

Rust is not leaving this team as long as Sullivan is here

Bookmark my post and i PRAY you are able to tell me I'm wrong in the future

 

[Gurglesons]

Yes, I am sure that no 32-year old wingers averaging 30G and 65P per 82 will get 4 year, $20.5M contracts this offseason.

Unmovable albatross.

Bryan Rust has never hit 30 goals or even 60 points.

His last full season he scored 20 goals and 46 points.

Which also plays into his value. He's paced well in the past, but he also misses 20+ games a year on the regular.

I'm a huge Bryan Rust fan.

Reilly Smith is the better player, has the better contract, and was coming off a huge playoff run and returned a 3rd.

I think you can get a ton more if you move Rust in 26-27 or 27-28 at 50% retained.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Nothing happens on L2, really.

Oh, I hate more than just Rust, believe you me.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Bryan Rust has never hit 30 goals or even 60 points.

His last full season he scored 20 goals and 46 points.

Which also plays into his value. He's paced well in the past, but he also misses 20+ games a year on the regular.

I'm a huge Bryan Rust fan.

Reilly Smith is the better player, has the better contract, and was coming off a huge playoff run and returned a 3rd.

I think you can get a ton more if you move Rust in 26-27 or 27-28 at 50% retained.

"Bryan Rust will lose value because people will be signing up for him through age 36"

"Rust will ha e more value at age 34-35 than he does at age 31-32"

Just so internally inconsistent.

He never put up 30 and 60 because COVID cut 2 seasons short.

 

[Gurglesons]

"Bryan Rust will lose value because people will be signing up for him through age 36"

"Rust will ha e more value at age 34-35 than he does at age 31-32"

Just so internally inconsistent.

He never put up 30 and 60 because COVID cut 2 seasons short.

Not really. Contracts with term never have value in today's league. Hence why we just acquired a 100 pt, Norris Trophy winner for nothing while getting rid of every bad contract we had.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Not really. Contracts with term never have value in today's league. Hence why we just acquired a 100 pt, Norris Trophy winner for nothing while getting rid of every bad contract we had.

Lol, at an 11.5m cap hit for a divisive player.
We will see if our theory holds if Rust is moved. The NMC will dictate way more.

 

[Gurglesons]

Lol, at an 11.5m cap hit for a divisive player.
We will see if our theory holds if Rust is moved. The NMC will dictate way more.

When's the last time a 30+ year old play with years left was moved for any value?

NHL Trade History - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

NHL trade history. Trades can be filtered on players, teams, dates, and events

www.capfriendly.com

Kevin Hayes is the last comparable to Rust, I can think of. He was younger. A center. And had less term on his deal. He also produced more the year prior to his trade. He returned the Flyers a 6th round pick and the Flyers had to retain 50%. So essentially the Flyers had to get him down to 3ish million to get a 6th round pick back.

 

[ChaosAgent]

When's the last time a 30+ year old play with years left was moved for any value?

NHL Trade History - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

NHL trade history. Trades can be filtered on players, teams, dates, and events

www.capfriendly.com

Kevin Hayes is the last comparable to Rust, I can think of. He was younger. A center. And had less term on his deal. He also produced more the year prior to his trade. He returned the Flyers a 6th round pick and the Flyers had to retain 50%. So essentially the Flyers had to get him down to 3ish million to get a 6th round pick back.

I don't think Hayes is that similar to Rust. Hayes is a 2C who isn't very good for that role making $7m. Rust is regarded as a core member of the Penguins who is constantly gushed about nationally. If he were on the FA market this off-season, he could command more than 4/$20m. Don't really see what the difference is.

If he is trade we will see who was right. I think he has a low 1st value but maybe more of a 3rd if he really weaponizes the NMC.

 

[Gurglesons]

I don't think Hayes is that similar to Rust. Hayes is a 2C who isn't very good for that role making $7m. Rust is regarded as a core member of the Penguins who is constantly gushed about nationally. If he were on the FA market this off-season, he could command more than 4/$20m. Don't really see what the difference is.

If he is trade we will see who was right. I think he has a low 1st value but maybe more of a 3rd if he really weaponizes the NMC.

I'm not trying to be an ass, but like show me one deal where a 32 year old was moved for a 1st round pick with multiple years on his contract that produces in the 40-50 pt range in the last ten years.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I think the perception of Rust goes both ways. Sure this board bags on him a bit and it creates some negativity he probably doesn't totally deserve. As a guy that is lukewarm at best about current-day 5M dollar Rust even I can admit that. But he also gets his tires pumped quite a bit, too.

In the end I don't really know how much he'd fetch in a trade. The league is a little higher scoring these days and 40-50ish point pseudo-sniper wingers with restrictive trade clauses who are semi-permanently stapled to a still-elite player like Crosby just ain't what they used to be value-wise.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I'm not trying to be an ass, but like show me one deal where a 32 year old was moved for a 1st round pick with multiple years on his contract that produces in the 40-50 pt range in the last ten years.

Granlund traded to Penguins by Predators | NHL.com

Forward has 36 points this season; Nashville receives 2nd-round pick in 2023

www.nhl.com

This guy went for a 2nd.
Players rarely get traded with multiple years to go so the sample size isn't all that high.

I think you're being a bit dishonest with what Rust is. When he's on PP1 and PP1 isn't an atrocity, he's a guy who paces for 65 points, PKs, and is our first-choice RW. Yes, he's hurt for ~15 games a season. Players who don't get PP time don't put up gaudy point totals. You can't use that as circular logic to claim that an 80 point player is 8/5th better than a 50 point player because the opportunity isn't there.


Hate to quote reddit forums, but the Rust contract was considered to be a bargain from an AAV perspective but 1-2 years too long at the time. I really don't understand why a team would potentially be interested in signing Rust as a UFA, but then if an opportunity came around to trade for him they would demand 50% retention or whatever. Just doesn't make logical sense to me.

You can post his value in the trade board or whatever if you want. I'd be interested. I would expect some crappy contract to match cap and a heavily-protected 1st in return.

 

[Gurglesons]

Granlund traded to Penguins by Predators | NHL.com

Forward has 36 points this season; Nashville receives 2nd-round pick in 2023

www.nhl.com

This guy went for a 2nd.
Players rarely get traded with multiple years to go so the sample size isn't all that high.

I think you're being a bit dishonest with what Rust is. When he's on PP1 and PP1 isn't an atrocity, he's a guy who paces for 65 points, PKs, and is our first-choice RW. Yes, he's hurt for ~15 games a season. Players who don't get PP time don't put up gaudy point totals. You can't use that as circular logic to claim that an 80 point player is 8/5th better than a 50 point player because the opportunity isn't there.


Hate to quote reddit forums, but the Rust contract was considered to be a bargain from an AAV perspective but 1-2 years too long at the time. I really don't understand why a team would potentially be interested in signing Rust as a UFA, but then if an opportunity came around to trade for him they would demand 50% retention or whatever. Just doesn't make logical sense to me.

You can post his value in the trade board or whatever if you want. I'd be interested. I would expect some crappy contract to match cap and a heavily-protected 1st in return.

Granlund did not have multiple years left. I think you can get a 2nd for Rust when he has a year or two left on his deal at the deadline. That isn’t my argument.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Granlund did not have multiple years left. I think you can get a 2nd for Rust when he has a year or two left on his deal at the deadline. That isn’t my argument.

Um, Granlund had 2.5 years left when traded to us.

I don't think value of 35 year old Rust at $3 AAV for 1 year is higher than 32 year old Rust with $5M AAV for 4 years. The idea being that 32-34 year old Rust is likely a much better player than the one you're getting at 35.
But this could be an area where NHL GMs work and make decisions in mysterious ways that I truly don't understand.

 

[Gurglesons]

Um, Granlund had 2.5 years left when traded to us.

I don't think value of 35 year old Rust at $3 AAV for 1 year is higher than 32 year old Rust with $5M AAV for 4 years. The idea being that 32-34 year old Rust is likely a much better player than the one you're getting at 35.
But this could be an area where NHL GMs work and make decisions in mysterious ways that I truly don't understand.

Fair enough.