Salary Cap: Penguins Salary Cap Thread: End of an era?

[AuroraBorealis]

Tepid take. Only 31 players were on ice for a better PP goal rate than Geno last regular season - or to put it another way, the top units from NYR, TOR, STL, NSH, and a couple guys from VAN/EDM/FLA, and a couple outliers who really elevated their units from there. Sid was 35th. The 1st PP was a strength more often that it was a weakness when fit.

And Geno was a top 20 PP goal scorer by rate, shooting at 20.45% so it's not like his shot was last. The unit picked the wrong moment to shit itself and it would be nice if it could be better but the idea that the 1st unit was never up to snuff, or that Geno's one timer shouldn't be a major factor to plan around, seems questionable.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

I can't filter out players with low PP1 minutes, but Geno's among the best in the league at PP production among regulars.

But I have to take his numbers with a grain of salt as well, because of the # of times his giveaways ended up in the back of our net or at least created high danger chances against. Him and Tanger were quite sloppy at the blue line passing to each other.
Still, we need Geno on the PP. It's more about his distribution and unpredictability than his slapshot imo. Feel like last season in particular he didn't get that many on net. Gets blocked a lot.

 

[Pancakes]

Being 35 doesn't explain how he had such a ghastly bad year last year.

It does, actually. Players that can play well at 35 or older are rare.

 

[Night Shift]

In no way I think that 2017s team was better without Letang and we won despite Letang being out, not because of him being out. In a perfect world, we also keep both, but my point is that if we have to lose one, I think we could compensate Letangs departure better if done properly

To counter you point about the #1 D. It's one thing to go on a run in the playoffs and win without your #1 D. (A la 2017). But it's another thing to go without a #1 Dman for an entire season. I've never agreed with the concept that you can win without Letang, it makes it much harder.

 

[Daeni10]

To counter you point about the #1 D. It's one thing to go on a run in the playoffs and win without your #1 D. (A la 2017). But it's another thing to go without a #1 Dman for an entire season. I've never agreed with the concept that you can win without Letang, it makes it much harder.

Thats completely true and something that isnt well reflected in my argument.

It also most definitly makes it harder without Letang, but I'd argue losing Malkin makes it even harder

 

[Tom Hanks]

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

I can't filter out players with low PP1 minutes, but Geno's among the best in the league at PP production among regulars.

But I have to take his numbers with a grain of salt as well, because of the # of times his giveaways ended up in the back of our net or at least created high danger chances against. Him and Tanger were quite sloppy at the blue line passing to each other.
Still, we need Geno on the PP. It's more about his distribution and unpredictability than his slapshot imo. Feel like last season in particular he didn't get that many on net. Gets blocked a lot.

Malkin wasn’t credited with having any of his shots blocked on the PP this season.

Geno and Letang’s giveaway rate we’re both lower than Sid’s too.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Malkin wasn’t credited with having any of his shots blocked on the PP this season.

Geno and Letang’s giveaway rate we’re both lower than Sid’s too.

Like I keep repeating until I'm blue in the face... Malkin really shouldn't be up top. Should never have been.

He MAKES it work because that's where they want him. But it's always been less-than-ideal.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Malkin wasn’t credited with having any of his shots blocked on the PP this season.

Geno and Letang’s giveaway rate we’re both lower than Sid’s too.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

That's so weird. But ok.

 

[Tom Hanks]

Like I keep repeating until I'm blue in the face... Malkin really shouldn't be up top. Should never have been.

He MAKES it work because that's where they want him. But it's always been less-than-ideal.

I’m not sure much changes with Sid, Geno & Letang on the PP. They’ll default to their own thing.

The other two spots are probably more important in how well we’ll do. We havent had Kunitz/Horny as the strength guys in a while.

When was the last great RHS other than Phil on our PP?

The big 3 will always do well over a long sample size.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

I’m not sure much changes with Sid, Geno & Letang on the PP. They’ll default to their own thing.

The other two spots are probably more important in how well we’ll do. We have t had Kunitz/Horny as the strength guys in a while.

When was the last great RHS other than Phil on our PP?

The big 3 will always do well over a long sample size.

Well yeah talent counts for a lot.

I dunno. It probably sounds really stupid to be saying this at THIS point in time but I've never much liked how this team configured it's players on the powerplay and have always left wanting more despite generally good results.

And yeah it would be nice to have a real RH threat over on the other half wall. It's just kinda no mans land since Phil got the axe.

 

[IcedCapp]

PP is clearly players, not coaches. the second unit had no issue looking like an nhl PP. the number one unit didn’t look much better with Sid out and I don’t remember it looking great when Malkin was out earlier.

so, yeah, its an impossible mystery

 

[Peat]

Geno and Letang’s giveaway rate we’re both lower than Sid’s too.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Ting is Sid giving it away a lot making the killer cross-slot pass is a) part of business b) less harmful.

Admittedly I don't know for sure that's what it is, but it's very plausible.

And I guess since Sid was on ice for a really big GA, maybe his giveaways were pretty damn harmful.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

re: giveaways as indicated by stats shown above:

1. People get far too worked up about them in general. I want guys like Sid and Malkin to have some giveaways. Because it means they are trying things and using their creativity instead of just eating the puck in the corner or playing dipshit chip n chase hockey. And on the powerplay you need to actually put the puck through the opposition's box and make the goaltender move. You can toss the puck high/low til the cows come home but nothing much is going to actually happen.

2. Crosby played nearly twice as many games as Malkin.

 

[Empoleon8771]

A #1D is vital in all zones, supports the offensive attack and plays the most minutes. If you're choosing between a #2C and a Legit #1D it isn't even a question of which you pick.

It is, but there's really nothing to suggest that Letang is "vital in all zones" at this point.

Honestly, I feel like Letang and Malkin are not nearly as difficult to replace as I initially though. You can't do it through UFA this year, I think that is a given. But when I take out the names and look purely at the player archetype, meaning a minute eating OFD who is great on special teams in Letang and an offensive driving center who's terrific on the powerplay in Malkin, I don't know if that seems as hard to replace as "replacing Malkin and Letang" seems to be.

I probably worded that poorly, but I think most would get the gist.

 

[Peat]

2. Crosby played nearly twice as many games as Malkin.

Do it by rate and Sid still has more. Carter and Erod have more than both.

Also yes. Sid was top 30 for giveaways by rate in the league last year. So was McDavid, Pastrnk, Panarin, Gaudreau, Fox, Jack Hughes, Huberdeau... you don't want to be there, but you've got to give the stars licence to risk being there.

It is, but there's really nothing to suggest that Letang is "vital in all zones" at this point.

Honestly, I feel like Letang and Malkin are not nearly as difficult to replace as I initially though. You can't do it through UFA this year, I think that is a given. But when I take out the names and look purely at the player archetype, meaning a minute eating OFD who is great on special teams in Letang and an offensive driving center who's terrific on the powerplay in Malkin, I don't know if that seems as hard to replace as "replacing Malkin and Letang" seems to be.

I probably worded that poorly, but I think most would get the gist.

This. Still far from easy, but easier than replacing a do it all 1D or a guy who needs minimal wing support to make it happen.

I'd also point out by the numbers, Marino was probably more important to the Pens in our own zone this season in terms of simple responsibility. I say probably because Letang is logging more minutes but given that Marino saw more elite competition (last I saw that stat), had a worse zone start percentage, and played more PK... not a great thing for the Pens, but a very good indicator that Letang mightn't be Mr Do It All any more.

 

[Tom Hanks]

Interesting PP stat

Sid/Letang with Geno
139 mins
High danger PP goals 13

Sid/Letang without Geno
79 mins
High danger PP goals 2

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

 

[ChaosAgent]

Honestly, I feel like Letang and Malkin are not nearly as difficult to replace as I initially though. You can't do it through UFA this year, I think that is a given. But when I take out the names and look purely at the player archetype, meaning a minute eating OFD who is great on special teams in Letang and an offensive driving center who's terrific on the powerplay in Malkin, I don't know if that seems as hard to replace as "replacing Malkin and Letang" seems to be.

You are really overselling Letang's defensive issues this last year. The analytics didn't like him I guess but don't make too much of a meal of it

I'd still take him in the defensive zone over any other DMan we have.

 

[Empoleon8771]

You are really overselling Letang's defensive issues this last year. The analytics didn't like him I guess but don't make too much of a meal of it

I'd still take him in the defensive zone over any other DMan we have.

Letang's defensive analytics have been trending downwards for years. It's not just last year, it has been years with him.

 

[Andy99]

That's so weird. But ok.

It’s not actually weird…people just remember a giveaway or two that led to a shorthanded Chance or goal and it’s egregious in their mind so it stands out…whereas Sid could’ve had a lot more but they were as “dramatic”..

 

[AuroraBorealis]

It’s not actually weird…people just remember a giveaway or two that led to a shorthanded Chance or goal and it’s egregious in their mind so it stands out…whereas Sid could’ve had a lot more but they were as “dramatic”..

Meant the shot blocking. 0 blocks credited on Malkin shots in 41 games? Doesn't that seem kinda insane?
Like he tries those quick wrist shots from the middle point on 5 on 3's that got blocked...
Anyways, whatever.

Sid giveaway count makes sense because he tries a lot of east-west seam passes. Those do less damage though, because you still have a few men on D to deal with the transition. When Geno does it though, with his skating especially...

 

[ChaosAgent]

Letang's defensive analytics have been trending downwards for years. It's not just last year, it has been years with him.

What analytics are those, really?

It's just xG kind of stuff. In terms of actual results, with actual and not expected goals, he has been at 56%+ for 3/4 of the last years.

I guess you could argue that he benefits from being behind the Crosby line and has for years, as far as his rates go. Though the Crosby line concedes a ton of chances in of itself. Not the easiest line to play behind if you're trying to stop opponent offense.

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

 

[Empoleon8771]

What analytics are those, really?

It's just xG kind of stuff. In terms of actual results, with actual and not expected goals, he has been at 56%+ for 3/4 of the last years.

I guess you could argue that he benefits from being behind the Crosby line and has for years, as far as his rates go. Though the Crosby line concedes a ton of chances in of itself. Not the easiest line to play behind if you're trying to stop opponent offense.

Line Stats - Natural Stat Trick

Look at his defensive impact, it hasn't been good since before 2019-2020 and has been getting worse and worse.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Look at his defensive impact, it hasn't been good since before 2019-2020 and has been getting worse and worse.

How is that calculated though?

Like honestly, we know publicly accessible hockey analytics is total midwit stuff to address a very hard problem. How d'ya think a JFresh is coming to a number that Letang's EV Defense is 14th percentile?

Willing to bet basically anything that it's just xGA/60 or some variant thereof.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Letang getting worse is still the best option for how this team utilizes its #1 d-man, or even top pairing, imo. Matheson can't fill those shoes. Neither can Petts or Marino. Dumo's hot garbage. I'm not convinced Klingberg's that guy--and I'm absolutely convinced Petry isn't. /shrug

Either pay the guy what he wants to continue keeping up this masquerade as though the team's any sort of competitor anymore, or let him (and Geno) walk and start the rebuild because there's no recovering from those losses via FA or through trade.

 

[Peat]

I'd also point out shots blocked on NST is how many shots a player blocked, not how many of his shots were blocked. You want to know how many shots were blocked, subtract Fenwick (all unblocked shot attempts) from Corsi (all shot attempts), or iFF from iCF on the link Hanks posted.

Or just compare iFF across the link to see what's good and what's not. I can tell you Malkin had 21 shots blocked on the PP, or 27% of his shot attempts, but I've no idea whether that's actually good or bad. He did also score on 20% of the shots the goalie had to work on, which also suggests a certain level of "who cares?"



edit: p.s. Letang's goal share is irrelevant to whether he is a declining defensive force or not. His GA/60 relative to the rest of the team might be, but the share is as relevant as how quickly he can down a Guinness.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I'd also point out shots blocked on NST is how many shots a player blocked, not how many of his shots were blocked. You want to know how many shots were blocked, subtract Fenwick (all unblocked shot attempts) from Corsi (all shot attempts), or iFF from iCF on the link Hanks posted.

Or just compare iFF across the link to see what's good and what's not. I can tell you Malkin had 21 shots blocked on the PP, or 27% of his shot attempts, but I've no idea whether that's actually good or bad. He did also score on 20% of the shots the goalie had to work on, which also suggests a certain level of "who cares?"

I didn't even click on the original NST link. Just took @Tom Hanks word.

Anyways, thanks. That makes sense.
1/4 shots blocked seems pretty significant. Then you have to factor in all the misses too.