Rumor: Penguins prepared to sign Jack Johnson

[Jag68Sid87]

I mean, judging by people’s reactions to Letang around here, I think JJ will be a scapegoat by December. Just like I thought Hunwick would be a HS by the playoffs last year.

JJ is basically Letang only worse in every facet of the game. I think he’s alright, but for where he’ll play in our line-up he’s going to get beat so often it’s going to be silly.

The only area where Johnson has Letang beat is he will be physically able to play against power forwards, something Letang can no longer handle.

If Letang remains, and my preference is still a trade, Johnson's presence hopefully loosens some of Letang's hardest minutes.


As for us being forced to pay someone to take Johnson down the road, I have far more faith in JR than a lot of you do, apparently.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I agree with all that...except his analytics are bad by just about any standard. There's a reason why he's been a stat geek whipping boy for pretty much his whole career, but whether he's "bad" or "fair" is a semantic argument that's probably not worth the keystrokes. Enough to say they have not been kind to him.

It's quite a gamble to make that kind of commitment to a 31 year old because of a toolbox that's rarely led to tangible positive results, but since we seem to be heading down that road there's not much to do but cross our fingers and hope the Pens crack blueline recovery team can make the most of his physical talents where nobody else could.

It is a gamble, but I don't see what place we have to question the Penguins when it comes to gambling on talented defensemen who need a change of scenery. That's not saying Johnson will pan out, no, but it is very true that they've gotten a ton of good results that are talented but struggling. I don't think we're in a position to start questioning the Penguins on defensemen when they have hit on seemingly 90% of the struggling defensemen they've acquired.

Yeah if you just describe him and ignore all fancy stats he seems like a very solid pickup. So that's what I'm doing

That's really the way it is with him and why he is still in the league today despite his crappy underlying numbers. The dude clearly has talent, and a lot of it. I think it's really obvious that the Penguins are looking at Johnson's talent and saying "we can get more out of him than the Kings and Jackets did", so that's why they signed him. It's not a smart gamble for 5 years, but I would have much preferred them to sign Johnson than to not sign him.

No....Olek and Letang on a line would be a disaster...we can only afford one stupid D man per line....

I see it as...
Dumo- Letang
Maatta-Johnson
Olek-Schultz...

Some people think JJ being signed to that term means they want him in the top 4 and therefore, Maatta is expendable in a trade....I see them thinking more that Johnson may be the Schultz replacement, and if he plays well, they might look to move Schultz next summer....

I actually like these pairings, tbh. I imagined it would be Johnson-Schultz as an offensive pair and Maatta-Oleksiak as a defensive pair, but I li

 

[Empoleon8771]

Hainsey has always been a top 4 statistically.

Scuderi and Gill are fine comparisons for Hainsey. But, you’re talking about Johnson. He is a worse Justin Schultz that played above his head on a team that ran up 20+ wins in a row. That is his one good season.

Hainsey's career possession stats are just as terrible as Johnson's possession stats, I really don't know how you can say "Hainsey has been top-4 statistically" while also saying Johnson is terrible. In fact, Hainsey's HERO chart from 2015-2017 looks incredibly similar to Johnson's HERO chart over the same window, and this is with Johnson getting more Dzone starts than Hainsey for only god knows what reason.

Also, here's the comparison for Johnson vs Hainsey from 2014-2018 from that site I found a couple of days ago. Still not seeing what makes Hainsey top-4 statistically but not Johnson.

 

[T1K]

I’m not really concerned with JJ, the rumored caphit isn’t too high. The term sucks, but we got rid of Hunwicks contract. It would have to get pretty bad to not be able to move JJs contract.

 

[Gurglesons]

Hainsey's career possession stats are just as terrible as Johnson's possession stats, I really don't know how you can say "Hainsey has been top-4 statistically" while also saying Johnson is terrible. In fact, Hainsey's HERO chart from 2015-2017 looks incredibly similar to Johnson's HERO chart over the same window, and this is with Johnson getting more Dzone starts than Hainsey for only god knows what reason.

Also, here's the comparison for Johnson vs Hainsey from 2014-2018 from that site I found a couple of days ago. Still not seeing what makes Hainsey top-4 statistically but not Johnson.

I think it is pretty easy to look at his Hero Chart and realize his impact has diminished in the twilight of his career. And his numbers at Johnson’s current age were light years better than Johnson’s. That’s the graph below the chart.

From 15-17 you are comparing a 34-36 year old Hainsey to a supposed prime 28-30 JJ. And there is little difference.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think it is pretty easy to look at his Hero Chart and realize his impact has diminished in the twilight of his career. And his numbers at Johnson’s current age were light years better than Johnson’s. That’s the graph below the chart.

From 15-17 you are comparing a 34-36 year old Hainsey to a supposed prime 28-30 JJ. And there is little difference.

It doesn't matter if you change the sample size, the results are the same. Hainsey isn't better than Johnson by any tangible difference according to their HERO charts. I'll compare Hainsey's 2010-2012 to Johnson's 2015-2017 (used 2010-2012 because it was the most favorable for Hainsey), it doesn't help your claim. Hainsey's HERO charts are pretty consistent overall, age hasn't made a difference with him.

Let's also compare their normal stats for that period too:

Hainsey: 138 games, 3 ES goals and 26 ES points, 19:18 TOI/game +12, 47.92% CF%, -4.5% CF%Rel, 46.19% offensive zone start%
Johnson: 142 games, 7 ES goals and 29 ES points, 22:49 TOI/game, +7, 48.22% CF%, -2.6% CF%Rel, 41.88% offensive zone start%

Johnson was better in the last 2 years than Hainsey was at the same age. Hainsey's HERO chart for the last 2 years compares favorably to Hainsey's HERO chart in his "prime" age.

 

[Gurglesons]

It doesn't matter if you change the sample size, the results are the same. Hainsey isn't better than Johnson by any tangible difference according to their HERO charts. I'll compare Hainsey's 2010-2012 to Johnson's 2015-2017 (used 2010-2012 because it was the most favorable for Hainsey), it doesn't help your claim. Hainsey's HERO charts are pretty consistent overall, age hasn't made a difference with him.

Let's also compare their normal stats for that period too:

Hainsey: 138 games, 3 ES goals and 26 ES points, 19:18 TOI/game +12, 47.92% CF%, -4.5% CF%Rel, 46.19% offensive zone start%
Johnson: 142 games, 7 ES goals and 29 ES points, 22:49 TOI/game, +7, 48.22% CF%, -2.6% CF%Rel, 41.88% offensive zone start%

Johnson was better in the last 2 years than Hainsey was at the same age. Hainsey's HERO chart for the last 2 years compares favorably to Hainsey's HERO chart in his "prime" age.

And Hainsey was playing on a historically terrible Atlanta team that got moved and Johnson was playing on a CBJ team with Jones and Werenski above him.

Go look at Johnson’s numbers on some of those terrible Kings teams. I was referring to the line graphs on the Hero Charts that clearly show Hainsey consistency until the last through years and Johnson being near the bottom.

Using analytics to defend Jack Johnson is not a good move. Eye Test: Why Jack Johnson is the NHL's most overrated player

He was one of the main players that get butchered around 2008-2010 when we heard a lot of the analytical arguments. He has gotten better in CBJ, but it’s tough to pin that on him especially when he fell off a cliff last year and was terrible with mostly everyone. Savard suddenly looks good with Cole, and it’s obvious what the problem was.

 

[DeadPuckEra]

I hereby declare 7/1 as #Johnsonwatch

 

[Empoleon8771]

And Hainsey was playing on a historically terrible Atlanta team that got moved and Johnson was playing on a CBJ team with Jones and Werenski above him.

There wasn't a huge difference between the Jackets from 2015-2017 and the Jets/Thrashers from 2010-2012. The Jackets were a 92 point team per season and the Jets/Thrashers were an 82 point team, because Columbus in 2015-2016 finished 27th in the NHL. The Jackets were crazy good in 2016-2017, but they were crappy in 2015-2016. If you want to adjust for team strength, I can compare the 2014-2016 Johnson, because the Jackets from 2014-2016 finished with 165 points in 164 games, which is nearly identical to what the Jets/Thrashers did (Jets/Thrashers had 164 points in 164 games). Here's their HERO charts for that window, which again, aren't very different.

I think you need to just admit you made an incorrect claim rather than try to jump through hoops to say it's correct. Hainsey wasn't a terrible player, but there's really not much to base it on that Hainsey was a top-4 D while Johnson has sucked.

Go look at Johnson’s numbers on some of those terrible Kings teams. I was referring to the line graphs on the Hero Charts that clearly show Hainsey consistency until the last through years and Johnson being near the bottom.

Johnson wasn't a good player for the Kings, you won't hear an argument against that from me. I think he was nothing but a PP specialist for the Kings, and not a particularly great one at that. I also think Johnson has improved his 2-way game in recent years for the Jackets and is now a more effective player than he was with the Kings. He kinda was forced to, he was played like a #1 DFD even though he had no business being treated as such.

 

[torrencemd]

Maaaaaan there is so much hate on the HFB, kinda feels hard to be Snoop double J. I honestly can't see why people are so upset until he puts on the jersey, practices and actually plays a game. We have taken on numerous reclamation D men and brought out the best. We have a nack for bringing out the best in D men and we have Gonch. SOOOO I'm going to hold off judgement until I see the final product...

 

[Gurglesons]

There wasn't a huge difference between the Jackets from 2015-2017 and the Jets/Thrashers from 2010-2012. The Jackets were a 92 point team per season and the Jets/Thrashers were an 82 point team, because Columbus in 2015-2016 finished 27th in the NHL. The Jackets were crazy good in 2016-2017, but they were crappy in 2015-2016. If you want to adjust for team strength, I can compare the 2014-2016 Johnson, because the Jackets from 2014-2016 finished with 165 points in 164 games, which is nearly identical to what the Jets/Thrashers did (Jets/Thrashers had 164 points in 164 games). Here's their HERO charts for that window, which again, aren't very different.

I think you need to just admit you made an incorrect claim rather than try to jump through hoops to say it's correct. Hainsey wasn't a terrible player, but there's really not much to base it on that Hainsey was a top-4 D while Johnson has sucked.



Johnson wasn't a good player for the Kings, you won't hear an argument against that from me. I think he was nothing but a PP specialist for the Kings, and not a particularly great one at that. I also think Johnson has improved his 2-way game in recent years for the Jackets and is now a more effective player than he was with the Kings. He kinda was forced to, he was played like a #1 DFD even though he had no business being treated as such.

I’d put together an argument, but I’m on Balboa Island enjoying the sun.

Hainsey has been one of the better shot suppression defensemen in the league through out his career at evens playing the highest level of competition, not to mention his PK numbers.

His possession left much to be desired, but Hainsey is light years ahead of Jack Johnson analytically, eye test wise, etc.

Can’t wait to see you eat your words on JJ

 

[Jacob]

Am I correct that JJ played with Tyutin a lot and then Savard?

 

[Peat]

Am I correct that JJ played with Tyutin a lot and then Savard?

17-18 - Savard (by far), Nutivaara, Murray
16-17 - Savard (like, 70%), Murray
15-16 - Savard (by far), Murray, Goloubef

More time with Savard than all other dmen put together over those three years.

 

[Tom Hanks]

Am I correct that JJ played with Tyutin a lot and then Savard?

Two season with Tyutin then 4 with Savard as most common partner (50%+). First year in CBJ with Wiz.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

Pens were lacking many things last year that led to the 2nd round exit(injuries aside).

Veteran lockeroom presence being one of them. Our vets were our star players and after that it was guys 25 and younger. No in between. The turnover in the roster last year was our biggest downfall.

Johnson is more like Cole, and also adds to the lockeroom( Crosby approves). Can also eat up minutes , play physical. Help Letang's game as well..not having to rely on him as much. Getting the most out of him. And we arent paying alot for him.

We've also turned around alot of careers here, he could be the next. Weve had better success with signings that made people scratch their heads than ones people were excited about.

We had to add to the defense, and we werent getting guys like Karlsson. I like the signing.

 

[Gurglesons]

Pens were lacking many things last year that led to the 2nd round exit(injuries aside).

Veteran lockeroom presence being one of them. Our vets were our star players and after that it was guys 25 and younger. No in between. The turnover in the roster last year was our biggest downfall.

Johnson is more like Cole, and also adds to the lockeroom( Crosby approves). Can also eat up minutes , play physical. Help Letang's game as well..not having to rely on him as much. Getting the most out of him. And we arent paying alot for him.

We've also turned around alot of careers here, he could be the next. Weve had better success with signings that made people scratch their heads than ones people were excited about.

We had to add to the defense, and we werent getting guys like Karlsson. I like the signing.

Johnson has had attitude issues with Doughty over a diminishing role and than requested a trade once he was scratched in CBJ (made sense, he supposedly needed to play to get a long term deal.) He also has a negative history with Kessel. Let’s see what happens when he gets here and how Sully treats him.

I think you could make the argument that JR has had one successful UFA signing that wasn’t on our team in Cullen. I guess Comeau too.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

Johnson has had attitude issues with Doughty over a diminishing role and than requested a trade once he was scratched in CBJ (made sense, he supposedly needed to play to get a long term deal.) He also has a negative history with Kessel. Let’s see what happens when he gets here and how Sully treats him.

I think you could make the argument that JR has had one successful UFA signing that wasn’t on our team in Cullen. I guess Comeau too.

Yeah hes been thru alot in his career. Part of it can be from being a 3rd overall pick...and his personal issues he dealt with. But being 31 years old now, im not really worried about any of that.

I think he will be alot like what Cole was for us, with more talent. Potential to add to the offense.

Actually think we are getting him at the right time. What hes been thru and at this age, there should be no problem with him letting Gonch and others get the most out of him. When in the past he was used to his talent being the main reason for his success. Less likely to take advice.

Not only do I think he can be a good defender for us, but it will have a positive effect on the rest of the D.

Our top 6 is set now. Now they need to continue to try to develop these other prospects(the few that we have). Addison, Almari, etc.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

It is a gamble, but I don't see what place we have to question the Penguins when it comes to gambling on talented defensemen who need a change of scenery. That's not saying Johnson will pan out, no, but it is very true that they've gotten a ton of good results that are talented but struggling. I don't think we're in a position to start questioning the Penguins on defensemen when they have hit on seemingly 90% of the struggling defensemen they've acquired.

I'm saying the stakes are a lot higher this time, and the last time they signed a struggling d to a deal with some questionable term and money, the Pens ended up having to trade a positive value asset to get rid of him. The fact that this one's for more money and a couple years longer should give people pause, if nothing else.

If he signs I'm rooting for the guy but a return to form ain't a slam dunk, and if JJ doesn't do that we've got some cap space bunged up in him that we could be putting to better use in the next year or two like raises for Murray and Guentzel and trying to capably fill out the rest of the team. You have to consider these potential outcomes, it's not usually a great idea to make a habit of signing struggling players to 3+ year deals on a best-case scenario basis.

 

[Jacob]

17-18 - Savard (by far), Nutivaara, Murray
16-17 - Savard (like, 70%), Murray
15-16 - Savard (by far), Murray, Goloubef

More time with Savard than all other dmen put together over those three years.

Two season with Tyutin then 4 with Savard as most common partner (50%+). First year in CBJ with Wiz.

I wonder if the Pens think that JJ will benefit from being the 2nd best puck mover on whatever pairing he’s on, likely with Schultz, instead of having the main responsibility of the first pass or lugging it out that he obviously would have had with Savard or an older & slower Tyutin.

 

[Harshdiddy]

After seeing Reaves price per year I somehow feel much better about this.

 

[66-30-33]

I've not been paying much attention to this, so what's the offer now? is he still coming here at 5 years 3-3.5M AAV? or was that still proven not accurate?

 

[EightyOne]

I mean, judging by people’s reactions to Letang around here, I think JJ will be a scapegoat by December. Just like I thought Hunwick would be a HS by the playoffs last year.

JJ is basically Letang only worse in every facet of the game. I think he’s alright, but for where he’ll play in our line-up he’s going to get beat so often it’s going to be silly.

Johnson isnt supposed to replace Letang. And he will make half the money.

Guessing Hunwick would be a scratch wasn't a leap.

Johnson won't be a savior. But we need bodies on defense. There are only so many available for a cost (trade or money) that the team can afford.

Expect him to be like every team...a warm body 5-6-7+ defender.

 

[Gurglesons]

Johnson isnt supposed to replace Letang. And he will make half the money.

Guessing Hunwick would be a scratch wasn't a leap.

Johnson won't be a savior. But we need bodies on defense. There are only so many available for a cost (trade or money) that the team can afford.

Expect him to be like every team...a warm body 5-6-7+ defender.

What other team has a 5-6-7 on a five year deal?

 

[EightyOne]

What other team has a 5-6-7 on a five year deal?

Sharks. Brenden Dillon.
3.2mil.
2015-2020.

Mostly used low in the defensive combos.

 

[Gurglesons]

Sharks. Brenden Dillon.
3.2mil.
2015-2020.

Mostly used low in the defensive combos.

Okay. I will accept that.

He also signed the deal at 24.