GDT: Panthers @ Avs | March 3rd 7 PM MST | Daily Press Edition

[Hesher]

Picks was great, the big guns scored but man, that 3rd period was ugly.

 

[AvalancheFan19]

You have to think at this point that they are wanting the extra ELC year more than anything else.

There can't be any other possible explanation.. and if there is..

 

[chet1926]

It doesn't help when it seems like Bigras is the only player actively looking for a pass to a forward.

Beauchemin has become the new Hejda. I love how Beauch plays but he just rings pucks around the boards or fires them off the glass the second he can.

EJ either wants to flip it high up the middle, rifle a stretch pass down the ice or skate it.

Barrie wants to skate it first, skate it second, and then look to make a cross-ice pass third

Holden isn't ever fully sure if he actually has the puck, and if he does, you can bet he's going to either rifle it around the boards or try to skate it to the red line and maybe even further.

Bodnarchuk sucks.

Really, it's astonishing how this team is tied for a wild-card spot. We've played better hockey than this, but I find myself staring wide-eyed at the games whenever I see a clean breakout under pressure that doesn't involve the boards/glass/high flip. Actual passing from this team under pressure is extremely rare to see.

It is kind of mind blowing that we even have a chance at the playoff with the way our defense has played as of late.

 

[Foppa2118]

You have to think at this point that they are wanting the extra ELC year more than anything else.

My guess is they might have already decided he's a safe enough player to prognosticate his level of play in the NHL after a few years, and are already tentatively planning on signing him long term after his ELC, just like they did Landy for similar reasons.

That extra year gives them one more season on the cheap before jumping up to what could be $5M+.

 

[chet1926]

There can't be any other possible explanation.. and if there is..

This is where the debate begins because so many people around here get all pissy when we rush our prospects, but then they want players like Rantanen and Zadorov in the lineup.

Personally I'm all about fielding the best possible team despite contracts and age, which in my books includes both Zadorov and Rantanen

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

Pardon my ignorance. I know it's been discussed. But, at what point can he play and not burn a year off his ELC?

 

[Ararana]

Yea cause the guy that spends almost the entire game talking to players after they come back from shifts, and motioning towards the ice, is just rambling in French about his glory days.

 

[cgf]

We weren't even bad for the whole third period. Florida got most of their shots in during the first half of that frame, while we forced Loungo into a few saves that were more difficult than any Pickles had to make; and after MacK's penalty shot we were the better team straight up. Like so often with this young core, being "robbed" of a goal seemed to really fire the boys up to go out and actually play, instead of just sitting back and taking it.

IMO the team just isn't confident in their defensive ability enough when we're in possession/the-attacking-third; especially when they've got a lead in the third. With reason, of course, but that still creates a hesitation and tendency to cheat back on D too soon; which results in everyone being too scared of making a mistake or giving up something easy. Which is why we just concede the puck and try to block passing/shooting lanes when protecting leads in the third; so that if they're going to beat us, it'll be through traffic instead of through a gaffe.

This is where we really miss the swagger this team plays with when they've got Varly being Varly behind them. Then they don't take that extra second to think about not screwing up, and just go out n fight for the puck.

 

[CobraAcesS]

We weren't even bad for the whole third period. Florida got most of their shots in during the first half of that frame, while we forced Loungo into a few saves that were more difficult than any Pickles had to make; and after MacK's penalty shot we were the better team straight up. Like so often with this young core, being "robbed" of a goal seemed to really fire the boys up to go out and actually play, instead of just sitting back and taking it.

IMO the team just isn't confident in their defensive ability enough when we're in possession/the-attacking-third; especially when they've got a lead in the third. With reason, of course, but that still creates a hesitation and tendency to cheat back on D too soon; which results in everyone being too scared of making a mistake or giving up something easy. Which is why we just concede the puck and try to block passing/shooting lanes when protecting leads in the third; so that if they're going to beat us, it'll be through traffic instead of through a gaffe.

This is where we really miss the swagger this team plays with when they've got Varly being Varly behind them. Then they don't take that extra second to think about not screwing up, and just go out n fight for the puck.

Well a 24 save third period might give them that same swagger with Pickard in net, he's working on earning that trust from them. That's for sure.

 

[cgf]

Pardon my ignorance. I know it's been discussed. But, at what point can he play and not burn a year off his ELC?

Since he's already played 6 games it's for the last 3-4 games of the regular season, if we don't make the playoffs. If we do get in, he can't play without burning the first year of his ELC unless we get swept...and even then I'm not sure if the cut off is 10 games or if it's 10 games or less.

That said I still don't see why burning a year off of his ELC would be a bad thing now that he can't clock a season towards UFA. Robin mentioned it on the podcast and I've been beating the drum for months; but we should actually benefit from signing him to a long term deal sooner, if he burns a year of his ELC mostly playing in the AHL and we get another RFA year in that big deal to keep the AAV down. So I'd call him up ASAP, make sure his ELC doesn't slide to next year, and then sign him for 7-8 years in the summer of 2018; when we'll only have to pay for 2-3 UFA seasons in that contract.

Letting the ELC start before his UFA clock, could be the key to getting another star piece locked in for Landy-money (and maybe even Soda-money) or less. Which could/should save us up to 2M a season over what he'd get on a UFA deal, especially if that AAV ends up closer to the lower part of that range. Which would be enough money to bring in another Matthias/Comeau caliber depth guy, or to combine with other cap savings to allow us an extra core piece. Could be especially vital if Barrie and MacK don't buy into #structure and squeeze us on their extensions.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I could get behind the idea of managing the asset that is his contract if the Avs cared about asset management but since here they are using picks and prospects to get into the playoffs there just isn't a good reason for keeping Rantanen off the team. I guess it could also be about where does he play now that Boedker is here. I guess at this point is it worth it for 16 games? If they were going to do it they should have done it in late January when he came back. There's 5 guys signed for 2018-19 right now. I understand every dollar might count but there's also a bucket full of uncertainty what this team and the cap situation will look like by then. It's good Rantanen can't hit UFA a year earlier at least. People that are so concerned about the contract (not saying you guys but a few out there are pretty adamant) his contract could slide next year too but no, no nobody wants to see that happen.

 

[cgf]

Well a 24 save third period might give them that same swagger with Pickard in net, he's working on earning that trust from them. That's for sure.

I don't like how I've been turned into an "anti-Pickard" guy when he's one of the only Avs who's celebrations I have multiple GIFs of saved on my computer. He has an adorable personality, he's got starter-talent, he plays the puck very well, and the team clearly trusts him already.

But trusting their goalie to make the saves he has to make, isn't quiet the same as the swagger I'm talking about. I'm talking about the swagger they get when Varly's going Super Saiyan behind them. I'll never forget just how massively our whole team's performance turned around when he got healthy last season, or earlier in this one. He returned to the team in full form and suddenly everyone just started playing without hesitation, with genuine Bravado; throwing themselves into puck battles and instantly becoming more competitive on the ice, as well as in the standings. That was were he showed what a truly talismanic figure he had become for us.

And though I really like Picks as a prospect/goalie, especially his mindset and ability to play the puck; and I like him even more as an entertainer/personality; he's not going to become that talisman over what's left of this season. It took a Vezina & Hart caliber campaign throughout the 2013-2014 season for Varly to become that guy.

 

[Gigantor The Goalie]

And though I really like Picks as a prospect/goalie, especially his mindset and ability to play the puck; and I like him even more as an entertainer/personality; he's not going to become that talisman over what's left of this season. It took a Vezina & Hart caliber campaign throughout the 2013-2014 season for Varly to become that guy.

That's a bingo! I've been saying this since last season. Pickard is awesome and I love his personality (Avs seem to love goalies with personality, wait till you watch Martin play). The team just plays better(more often anyways) with Varlamov in net.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

Since he's already played 6 games it's for the last 3-4 games of the regular season, if we don't make the playoffs. If we do get in, he can't play without burning the first year of his ELC unless we get swept...and even then I'm not sure if the cut off is 10 games or if it's 10 games or less.

That said I still don't see why burning a year off of his ELC would be a bad thing now that he can't clock a season towards UFA. Robin mentioned it on the podcast and I've been beating the drum for months; but we should actually benefit from signing him to a long term deal sooner, if he burns a year of his ELC mostly playing in the AHL and we get another RFA year in that big deal to keep the AAV down. So I'd call him up ASAP, make sure his ELC doesn't slide to next year, and then sign him for 7-8 years in the summer of 2018; when we'll only have to pay for 2-3 UFA seasons in that contract.

Letting the ELC start before his UFA clock, could be the key to getting another star piece locked in for Landy-money (and maybe even Soda-money) or less. Which could/should save us up to 2M a season over what he'd get on a UFA deal, especially if that AAV ends up closer to the lower part of that range. Which would be enough money to bring in another Matthias/Comeau caliber depth guy, or to combine with other cap savings to allow us an extra core piece. Could be especially vital if Barrie and MacK don't buy into #structure and squeeze us on their extensions.

Thanks. I doubt we see him then. If it was just about the extra RFA year I think he would have been called up already. Your idea sounds good though. Gives him only two years to negotiate towards his next contract.

 

[cgf]

I could get behind the idea of managing the asset that is his contract if the Avs cared about asset management but since here they are using picks and prospects to get into the playoffs there just isn't a good reason for keeping Rantanen off the team. I guess it could also be about where does he play now that Boedker is here. I guess at this point is it worth it for 16 games? If they were going to do it they should have done it in late January when he came back. There's 5 guys signed for 2018-19 right now. I understand every dollar might count but there's also a bucket full of uncertainty what this team and the cap situation will look like by then. It's good Rantanen can't hit UFA a year earlier at least. People that are so concerned about the contract (not saying you guys but a few out there are pretty adamant) his contract could slide next year too but no, no nobody wants to see that happen.

I assume they were working on more long term forward solutions than Boedker; a la Drouin or maybe Rychel. So I get not wanting to call Mikko up in January, only to no longer have a spot for him if one of those did arrive. But now that the TDL has come & gone, and all we've added are rentals I don't think that rationale still flies. He should be up now; especially if the Rampage sag a bit more and their playoff dreams die for good.

Where to put him is a trickier question; but I actually think easing him in with the Greg plan wouldn't be the worst thing if they're serious about him playing Center again...and that that wasn't just something they wanted to throw at him to make him a more versatile winger and keep him from getting-complacent/stagnating...especially now that we have the depth to put together 4 proper lines. We could start him off centering the "4th" line with Matthias or McCleod on his left and Comeau or Iginla on his right; while Malkin centered the "3rd" line and Soda moved into the top 6; something like:

Landeskog - MacKinnon - Boedker
Grigorenko - Soderberg - Duchene
McCleod* - Mitchell - Comeau/Iginla
Matthias* - Rantanen - Comeau/Iginla
( Skille )

with his line being our most sheltered line and having its minutes fluctuate based on play; likely becoming our "3rd" line by season's end. Or we could start him off on the wing of the 4th line as things are now; and swap him up for Comeau/Matthias/Iginla as his play warrants the promotion and theirs validates demotion (like Comeau's has since his newborn stopped letting him sleep).

Landeskog - MacKinnon - Boedker
Grigorenko - Duchene - Iginla*
Matthias* - Soderberg - Comeau*
McCleod/Skille - Malkin - Rantanen*

I'd even be interested in seeing how we'd do if Mikko started off on Greg's wing and we promoted Soda to the Duchene line, with the final top 6 spot going to Iginla/Matthias/Comeau while our two skilled big-kids got to take advantage of sheltered minutes together for a little bit. Rolling out something like:

Landeskog - MacKinnon - Boedker
Matthias* - Soderberg - Duchene
McCleod - Mitchell - Comeau*/Skille
Rantanen - Grigorenko - Iginla* <---> this line moving up to become a sheltered "3rd" once they've gelled and Mikko's settled in.

The versatility we've gained with Duchene and Greg being Centers who can play on the wing just as well, and Mikko being a winger who started off as a Center, would give us a lot of options and flexibility to adapt to how quickly he begins to thrive at the NHL level.

 

[AslanRH]

That's a bingo! I've been saying this since last season. Pickard is awesome and I love his personality (Avs seem to love goalies with personality, wait till you watch Martin play). The team just plays better(more often anyways) with Varlamov in net.

I think you are right about that as Varly has a higher win percentage (.510 vs .400) over the last 2 seasons. I'm sure there are advanced stats that are better than my layman efforts to show that as well.

my quick math says that shots faced/minute over the last 2 years favors Varly (.537 vs .559) and Picks has a better GAA and Save%. I was surprised at how close both Goalies were in those numbers though. Thought Varly would be leading there a little more significantly

 

[cgf]

Thanks. I doubt we see him then. If it was just about the extra RFA year I think he would have been called up already. Your idea sounds good though. Gives him only two years to negotiate towards his next contract.

We've already got the extra RFA year because he'd have needed to play (I think) 40 games in the NHL to start the UFA clock. So they wouldn't have had a reason not to call him up after the AHL-ASG (or maybe it was after he came back from the WJC) if that was their concern.

They either care about the ELC, his calder-eligibility, or they genuinely want to take the slow-burn approach with the prospects that they do actually value; letting them over-rippen before making the jump unless they show that they should be exceptions like Landy/ROR/MacK/Dutchy/Bigras. My guess would be all of the above to varying degrees; with them not wanting Mikko to complicate the picture as they worked on a Drouin/Rychel trade, also playing a part in their willingness to use any and every excuse not to call him back up after he didn't run with his opportunity at the start of the year to become one of the exceptions.

 

[cgf]

I think you are right about that as Varly has a higher win percentage (.510 vs .400) over the last 2 seasons. I'm sure there are advanced stats that are better than my layman efforts to show that as well.

my quick math says that shots faced/minute over the last 2 years favors Varly (.537 vs .559) and Picks has a better GAA and Save%. I was surprised at how close both Goalies were in those numbers though. Thought Varly would be leading there a little more significantly

Pickard's been shelled like he was last night more than a few times. Plus he had that insane run last season, after his rough opening two games & both Berra/Varly had injury problems, that likely boosts his #s since he didn't get as many games later in the year when he was struggling and Berra was on fire.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

If Rantanen were to be brought up the question would be how ready is he defensively? He could be one of our better defenders if he is up to speed in that aspect of the game. I would like to see:

Lando - Yeti - Rantanen (if ready for defensive load)
Rantanen - MacK - Iggy (if needing to be sheltered)

 

[cgf]

If Rantanen were to be brought up the question would be how ready is he defensively? He could be one of our better defenders if he is up to speed in that aspect of the game. I would like to see:

Lando - Yeti - Rantanen (if ready for defensive load)
Rantanen - MacK - Iggy (if needing to be sheltered)

That question can only be answered when he comes back up and shows his stuff against NHLers. That's why I think he'd be eased in on a bottom 6 line unless an injury crisis was what necessitated his return. Which, unfortunately, seems like the most likely way he'd get called up before SA's season ends; and in that case, where he played would depend entirely on who got injured. Like Greg getting that game n a half on the MacK-Duchene line when Landy was out back in...was it November or December?

 

[Tweaky]

I think they are letting Rantanen lock in the Red Garrett Trophy, in addition to letting the ELC and UFA clocks slide. He can play 3 regular season or playoff games before the ELC burns a year (as soon as he is on the active roster for the tenth game). He can play 32 more until the year counts as one of the 7 until UFA...and that only counts regular season games, so not happening this year. He is also past the point that he would play too many to qualify for the Calder next year. That would be neat...ROY in two leagues, consecutive years. Similar to Drury's Hobie Baker / Calder.

Side effect of the slide....his cap hit goes down a bit. From $925,000 to $894,167. Not much help...but who knows if it could make a difference with the cap possibly dropping, big names needing contracts, and a couple possible UFA targets.

Also, the UFA season includes any games a player is on the NHL roster, whether they play or not. Injury and healthy scratches and count as games, as do games missed on the IR. So Zadorov is at 20 so far this season...he can be called up without it counting towards UFA. Bigras will cap out at 38, so he wont have it count either.

 

[henchman21]

Also, the UFA season includes any games a player is on the NHL roster, whether they play or not. Injury and healthy scratches and count as games, as do games missed on the IR. So Zadorov is at 20 so far this season...he can be called up without it counting towards UFA. Bigras will cap out at 38, so he wont have it count either.

The UFA clock is rolling at 20 regardless. Zadorov's started last year so his UFA will be at 26 and Bigras' at 27.

 

[hoserthehorrible]

If Rantanen were to be brought up the question would be how ready is he defensively? He could be one of our better defenders if he is up to speed in that aspect of the game. I would like to see:

Lando - Yeti - Rantanen (if ready for defensive load)
Rantanen - MacK - Iggy (if needing to be sheltered)

So you'd put Boedker on the 3rd or 4th line then? I'm glad you're not the Avs head coach

 

[Parks]

I'm a little late to this party but after watching last nights game its good to see that most of the doom and gloom is gone for now.

First off that was a huge win! Unfortunately we still haven't played a full 3 periods. Picks stole that game with his 3rd period. As far as any goalie controversy goes, I still see Varly as our #1 but I have no problem riding picks while he is hot. Having two good goalies is a great problem to have. Varly has been cold since missing time with his civil case but he will be fine eventually. Hopefully he gets focused and has some good practices. With everyone crying for us to move on from Varly i don't get it. He has carried this team for a couple years now. You don't give up on a goalie because of a cold spell. It happens to all goalies at some point. Eventually we will have to make a decision between the 2 and possibly trade the other but that time hasn't come yet.

I liked our top 3 lines for most of the game. If Boedker can develop some chemistry with Landy and Mac that line will be dangerous. His skating ability really puts pressure on the defense. They haven't figure out how to play together yet but when they do I see good things.

Duchy's line is looking good as well. I love see how patient Grigo is with the puck. He's smooth with the puck and his patients creates opportunities for the rest of his line. He still plays soft, especially for his size, but that's just who he is and we have to accept that. All of the chatter after last game about us trading Duchene at the end of the year sounds dumb to me. Your not going to get a player of his caliber back with a contract like his.

I was happy to see Bigras getting more time. His turnover was absolutely horrible but I hope this doesn't scare Roy from playing him bigger minutes. He's coming along nicely. Please don't end up in Roy's doghouse.

The only thing that is frustrating me is watching Comeau on the PP. He doesn't having any puck skills. Why is he getting so many PP minutes. I still like him as a player. He's been a nice addition to the bottom 6. The Soda line has been a great grind line. I just don't want to see Comeau struggling to stick handle and pass the puck while on the PP.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

So you'd put Boedker on the 3rd or 4th line then? I'm glad you're not the Avs head coach

Actually, Boedker would be with Grigo and Duchene as the so called first line in either scenario (Matthias - Mitchell - Skille/McLeod is 4th in both scenarios). Only difference would be Comeau and Rantanen. If ready defensively then Rantanen is on the so called 2nd line as the top 2way line with Yeti and Lando. But if not, then he is on the so called third with MacK and Iggy in an offensive heavy load that gets favorable match ups. But go ahead and keep talking ****