Rumor: Pacioretty on the move?

[MSSLYNX]

Think of it this way. Habs can get a 1st plus a prospect for him next year. Why would they let him go now for the same price? There’s a premium to be paid for an extra playoff run.

I admire your confidence but calling what they would get for him next year at this time is a reach.

Getting that same return now has more value to you than waiting 12 more months: pick and prospect get home faster which is a plus.

 

[MSSLYNX]

Duchene/Turris/Schenn/Kessel were all different terms. You need to find a player with 2 years left like Duchene and perhaps Lucic. The other thing to factor in is what kind of 1st round pick. In the Jets trade I proposed, it's 3 pieces from the 25+ spot within the 1st round.

Lucic trade as a Pending UFA for a whole season: Bruins got a proven piece in Jones and the 13th pick. If the Jets gave me Roslovic and the 13th pick, I would consider it but I would want to see a larger sample size from Roslovic at the NHL level. There is a substantial difference between 25+ pick and the 13th pick and Jones > Roslovic. Bruins later traded Jones for another 1st and prospect Kuraly. The 1st ended up being the 29th pick I believe. So Lucic for one year got a 13th, 29th, and prospect Kuraly.

Duchene and Turris was a unique circumstance: But Sakic got his asking price and more!

Kessel had lots of term left but he Leafs wanted to dump him. They even retained salary to do it.

Blues stole Schenn from the Flyers. All 29 other NHL GM's would love a do over.

Patch for this years playoffs and next year for 3 late 1st round picks is not as far fetched as most will admit.

Very funy the part where the Blues stole Schenn from the Flyers.

 

[Starat327]

Not if he scores 25 goals this year and 25 (+/-) goals next year. That means he is not a top 5 NHL goal scorer anymore. Maybe he tries to recoup some money with the Habs due being underpaid in his current contract but all 30 other NHL GM's don't care what his last contract was when they negotiate the next one.

Oshie - the comparable that keeps coming up - scored 26 and 33 goals before signing his contract, but had never scored more than 25 before that. If Max signs this summer, and scores around 25, itll be the first time in 5 years hes scored less than 30. He's not getting signed to an Oshie deal.

NHL GM's may not care - but he will. Hes going to look at people who have his type of goal scoring ability as comps. Hes not going to go in and say "Well, im probably only best suited to be your 3rd or 4th best forward, despite my production being better than 98% of the league. Ill take 6 mil i guess."

 

[Habs Halifax]

Very funy the part where the Blues stole Schenn from the Flyers.

Pretty sure the Blues are happy with that deal and the Flyers could of gotten more. Schenn is having a break out year at the age of 26. Most NHL GM's would love to have another shot at acquiring him for that price (2- 1st and another piece)

 

[Habs Halifax]

Oshie - the comparable that keeps coming up - scored 26 and 33 goals before signing his contract, but had never scored more than 25 before that. If Max signs this summer, and scores around 25, itll be the first time in 5 years hes scored less than 30. He's not getting signed to an Oshie deal.

NHL GM's may not care - but he will. Hes going to look at people who have his type of goal scoring ability as comps. Hes not going to go in and say "Well, im probably only best suited to be your 3rd or 4th best forward, despite my production being better than 98% of the league. Ill take 6 mil i guess."

Depends on term. Oshie signed for 8 years. If Patch signs for 8 years, the AAV comes down (Age 31-38 like the Oshie deal).

30 NHL GM's will humble Patch and his agent pretty quick. Habs offering him 5 years at $6.5M is a solid deal... especially if Patch scores 25 goals and 50 pts this year. If Patch has another year like that next year, all 30 other NHL GM's will lower their offers. Patch and his agent will weigh the risks vs rewards.

 

[Starat327]

Depends on term. Oshie signed for 8 years. If Patch signs for 8 years, the AAV comes down (Age 31-38 like the Oshie deal).

30 NHL GM's will humble Patch and his agent pretty quick. Habs offering him 5 years at $6.5M is a solid deal... especially if Patch scores 25 goals and 50 pts this year. If Patch has another year like that next year, all 30 other NHL GM's will lower their offers. Patch and his agent will weigh the risks vs rewards.

Fair or not - pacioretty would be dumb to sign a 5 year deal - he gets no security, and hes done at 35, where he likely wont be able to keep up a $6 dollar value. His next contract after that is likely to be 1-2 years at a very low aav.

Factor in the impending upcoming lockout, and i'd say there is virtually no chance he takes less than max term - be it 8 or 7 years. And if he does, he needs to find a new agent.


As for the Flyers - we were content to trade a 55 point winger for two firsts (especially given that Frost was on the table). That the blues were able to make him a C between good players is awesome for them, but Schenn's shelf life in Philly as a center had expired. He would have never got the opportunity to be that player here. This is the equivalent of saying Montreal traded a top pairing D man for a 40 point forward. What they've amounted to since the trade has no bearing on the value at the time of the trade.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Fair or not - pacioretty would be dumb to sign a 5 year deal - he gets no security, and hes done at 35, where he likely wont be able to keep up a $6 dollar value. His next contract after that is likely to be 1-2 years at a very low aav.

Factor in the impending upcoming lockout, and i'd say there is virtually no chance he takes less than max term - be it 8 or 7 years. And if he does, he needs to find a new agent.


As for the Flyers - we were content to trade a 55 point winger for two firsts (especially given that Frost was on the table). That the blues were able to make him a C between good players is awesome for them, but Schenn's shelf life in Philly as a center had expired. He would have never got the opportunity to be that player here. This is the equivalent of saying Montreal traded a top pairing D man for a 40 point forward. What they've amounted to since the trade has no bearing on the value at the time of the trade.

Why did Radulov sign a 5 year deal? Because that was his best offer. Not many free agents past the age of 30 get a 7 or 8 year deal. It's rare. Signing Patch to age 35 allows him to sign one more contract and avoid the 36+ retirement issue with the cap.

 

[DRW204]

Duchene/Turris/Schenn/Kessel were all different terms. You need to find a player with 2 years left like Duchene and perhaps Lucic. The other thing to factor in is what kind of 1st round pick. In the Jets trade I proposed, it's 3 pieces from the 25+ spot within the 1st round.

Lucic trade as a Pending UFA for a whole season: Bruins got a proven piece in Jones and the 13th pick. If the Jets gave me Roslovic and the 13th pick, I would consider it but I would want to see a larger sample size from Roslovic at the NHL level. There is a substantial difference between 25+ pick and the 13th pick and Jones > Roslovic. Bruins later traded Jones for another 1st and prospect Kuraly. The 1st ended up being the 29th pick I believe. So Lucic for one year got a 13th, 29th, and prospect Kuraly.

Duchene and Turris was a unique circumstance: But Sakic got his asking price and more!

Kessel had lots of term left but he Leafs wanted to dump him. They even retained salary to do it.

Blues stole Schenn from the Flyers. All 29 other NHL GM's would love a do over.

Patch for this years playoffs and next year for 3 late 1st round picks is not as far fetched as most will admit.

Ryan O Reilly is another example of a UFA+1 that didnt return 3x firsts. anyway none of these recent trades cited returned 3 x first rounders/equivalents. keep Patches if that's what you are wanting.

Are you getting 2 teams involved? Cuz that'll likely be the only way you got what Sakic received in total. Otherwise, itll likely be a return to what OTT gave up for Duchene (1st/6th best prospect/Cdntl 3/Hammond/rights to Turris). Kuraly was hardly a top 10 prospect at the time of the trade btw (looking back at some SJS rankings at the time).

I dont disagree that a 1st+good prospect is fair value (essentially 2 first round equivalents, as seen in many of the precedent trades), but from a needs standpoint it doesn't fit at all. Jets have 4 wingers with equal or more points, and 5 wingers that are better point per game. sure he would be a clear upgrade to guys like Copp, Tanev or Armia, but the cost-benefit is way out of wack for WPG. The Jets also really need useful ELC players with Connor, Wheeler, Laine, Morrissey, Helle, Trouba Lowry and Armia needing raises and resigning Tyler Myers. Brian Little is also approaching 30 and I can see him moving to 3C and Roslo to 2C within 3 years... Why cant you see this?

 

[Starat327]

Why did Radulov sign a 5 year deal? Because that was his best offer. Not many free agents past the age of 30 get a 7 or 8 year deal. It's rare. Signing Patch to age 35 allows him to sign one more contract and avoid the 36+ retirement issue with the cap.

I dont know that it was the best contract available in terms of AAV. Dallas looks like a pretty good team, maybe he took a discount to be around a team that looks to be competitive for the life of the contract with some really good players on it. Maybe he wanted to take advantage of the overblown idea of the tax savings in Texas. Maybe it was the best deal. Theres a lot of things that go in to it.

But Radulov also hadnt just had 5 years of 30+ goal NHL seasons behind him. Everyone knew he was a good player, but definte character issues, and no prolonged NHL success. Maybe patches takes a discount like radulov might have - i guess well have to wait and see.

But if youre telling me hes ideally suited to be your teams 4th best forward - aka a second liner - he isnt returning 3 firsts in a trade. 2, sure. But not 3. You dont get to sell him as a contract as one thing, but try and establish his trade value as another. Thats the point im getting at.

 

[Scintillating10]

1st 2018 Connor Petan Dano for Pacioretty.

I know Jets got a great top 6 but..

Patches Scheif Wheeler
Laine Little Ehlers
Perreault Lowry Armia
Copp Roslovic/Depth trade (Letestu) Armia

Jets be sick.

Jets 1st, Lemieux and Petan for Pacioretty?

 

[Oberyn]

Pretty sure the Blues are happy with that deal and the Flyers could of gotten more. Schenn is having a break out year at the age of 26. Most NHL GM's would love to have another shot at acquiring him for that price (2- 1st and another piece)

That other piece was Lehtera who was a cap dump. Schenn would not have returned two 1sts by himself.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Brian Little is also approaching 30 and I can see him moving to 3C and Roslo to 2C within 3 years... Why cant you see this?

You can rarely get fans to agree with each other within their own community, let alone reaching out to fans from others. It's rare to find individuals with universal knowledge of each organizations needs.

I was intrigued that Patches was available & read this thread in it's entirety before commenting. Even with that, I can't begin to understand the Montreal organization to the same degree I do Winnipeg.

I do believe the Jets are in the mix. If they were at the tail end of a dynasty I could see Chevy selling the farm. With this being the first of hopefully many successful years, the asking price seems too high & another teams offer will likely be better.

As it stands for me a 2018 first+Brendan Lemieux + 1 of either Dano or Petan would be be a starting point & an easy no from Montreal. For Conner, Roslovic or Vesalainen to be on the table would require an additional piece from Montreal.

Were a deal to happen, I'd only want Max from the Canadians. Jets are a close knit group. Very few trades have occurred within the organization since 2011 so the dressing room are thick as thieves. Adding a piece, even one as good as Patches could prove disruptive. As such I really wouldn't want to add multiple pieces from Montreal.

Factor in that even more disruptive would be the loss of players already in the room, likely the pieces Montreal would want.

As much as I salivate thinking of three of the top ten shots in the NHL (Pacioretty/Scheifele/Laine) coexisting on one line, it's likely not to happen.

All the best to our friends in Montreal. Things looked great for you throughout last season until the playoff loss to the Rangers. The Jets were looking good in 2014-2015 & then suffered their playoff loss to Anaheim. The following two seasons of futility had the fanbase grow grossly obnoxious. Throughout it the Jets dressing room played hard for each other every night & management held firm to bring the franchise to where it is today.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Jets 1st, Lemieux and Petan for Pacioretty?

Someone beat me to the punch!

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

eems too high & another teams offer will likely be Were a deal to happen, I'd only want Max from the Canadians. Jets are a close knit group. Very few trades have occurred within the organization since 2011 so the dressing room are thick as thieves. Adding a piece, even one as good as Patches could prove disruptive. As such I really wouldn't want to add multiple pieces from Montreal.

Factor in that even more disruptive would be the loss of players already in the room, likely the pieces Montreal would want.

Glad you mentioned some of the factors that have to considered when making trades. Too often fans on these sites just look at goals/assists, and really don't grasp the "team" aspect.

 

[Baksfamous112]

Jets 1st, Lemieux and Petan for Pacioretty?

Missing the important grade A prospect here

 

[DRW204]

You can rarely get fans to agree with each other within their own community, let alone reaching out to fans from others. It's rare to find individuals with universal knowledge of each organizations needs.

I was intrigued that Patches was available & read this thread in it's entirety before commenting. Even with that, I can't begin to understand the Montreal organization to the same degree I do Winnipeg.

I do believe the Jets are in the mix. If they were at the tail end of a dynasty I could see Chevy selling the farm. With this being the first of hopefully many successful years, the asking price seems too high & another teams offer will likely be better.

As it stands for me a 2018 first+Brendan Lemieux + 1 of either Dano or Petan would be be a starting point & an easy no from Montreal. For Conner, Roslovic or Vesalainen to be on the table would require an additional piece from Montreal.

Were a deal to happen, I'd only want Max from the Canadians. Jets are a close knit group. Very few trades have occurred within the organization since 2011 so the dressing room are thick as thieves. Adding a piece, even one as good as Patches could prove disruptive. As such I really wouldn't want to add multiple pieces from Montreal.

Factor in that even more disruptive would be the loss of players already in the room, likely the pieces Montreal would want.

As much as I salivate thinking of three of the top ten shots in the NHL (Pacioretty/Scheifele/Laine) coexisting on one line, it's likely not to happen.

All the best to our friends in Montreal. Things looked great for you throughout last season until the playoff loss to the Rangers. The Jets were looking good in 2014-2015 & then suffered their playoff loss to Anaheim. The following two seasons of futility had the fanbase grow grossly obnoxious. Throughout it the Jets dressing room played hard for each other every night & management held firm to bring the franchise to where it is today.

I agree that other fans might be ignorant to the dealings of another team, however, if a boatload of fans have bee clamoring that there is no need for Patches at his supposed 3 x first rounder price for X Y and Z reason you would think it would resonate with the poster after numerous tries.

Patches is no clear upgrade in any of the top 6 Ws. You mention Connor....he is producing at a better pace, has the exact same raw totals whilst being 8 years younger and on an ELC. Including him in a deal for Patches is a lateral move at best when you take into account current production and contract demands.

 

[rent free]

Missing the important grade A prospect here

missing the fact that the jets wouldn't do this trade

 

[surixon]

The Jets are one of the deepest organizations with regards to wingers both impact and depth. It makes little sense to give up anything for a piece we really don't need.

We need LD and possibly a C to cover for Lowry who seemingly has been suffering through the same injury all year.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

I agree that other fans might be ignorant to the dealings of another team, however, if a boatload of fans have bee clamoring that there is no need for Patches at his supposed 3 x first rounder price for X Y and Z reason you would think it would resonate with the poster after numerous tries.

Patches is no clear upgrade in any of the top 6 Ws. You mention Connor....he is producing at a better pace, has the exact same raw totals whilst being 8 years younger and on an ELC. Including him in a deal for Patches is a lateral move at best when you take into account current production and contract demands.

I said the exact same thing in post #1432...

Connor’s freshman season in the NCAA equalled the 71 points that Buffalo Sabres forward Jack Eichel amassed for Boston University in 2014-15. Only Paul Kariya totalled more points as a freshman, scoring 100 points for Maine in 1992-93. 19-year-old Connor had an NCAA-leading 71 points (35 goals, 36 assists) in 38 games last season as a freshman at the University of Michigan.

More importantly are his NHL numbers. He's an NHL rookie with 17G-18A for 35 points in 48 games with a good portion of these totals being accumulated on Winnipeg's 4th line. No way does he enter this conversation. He's Patches equal at 21 years of age on a ELC.

 

[Habs Halifax]

That other piece was Lehtera who was a cap dump. Schenn would not have returned two 1sts by himself.

The point is the Blues got a very key asset for 3 years for two late 1st round picks. They are happy with this trade and a lot of other GM's would like a do over based on the year Schenn is having as a 26 year old.

 

[EdAVSfan]

The Duchene trade needs to be lumped into the Forsberg/Erat group.

It’s not a precedent to be set for all future deals.

It was unique circumstance.

Although I do get a kick reading the same posters tell us avs fans we weren’t getting 3 1st round pick value, now requesting it for Pacioretty.


Personally, i don’t think he gets moved. He’s obviously going to be higher valued than the other available pieces. And that’s the problem. There are several other available pieces that will be cheaper.

 

[DRW204]

The Duchene trade needs to be lumped into the Forsberg/Erat group.

It’s not a precedent to be set for all future deals.

It was unique circumstance.

Although I do get a kick reading the same posters tell us avs fans we weren’t getting 3 1st round pick value, now requesting it for Pacioretty.


Personally, i don’t think he gets moved. He’s obviously going to be higher valued than the other available pieces. And that’s the problem. There are several other available pieces that will be cheaper.

the Duchene trade's return for COL was higher obviously with the 3rd team involved and NSH wanting the piece from OTT. I don't think COL's return can be compared to Patches, but OTT's cost of acquisition in acquiring can (cond 2018 1st/Bowers/2019 3rd/Hammond)

 

[Baksfamous112]

missing the fact that the jets wouldn't do this trade

Neither would the Habs without that A graded prospect.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I dont know that it was the best contract available in terms of AAV. Dallas looks like a pretty good team, maybe he took a discount to be around a team that looks to be competitive for the life of the contract with some really good players on it. Maybe he wanted to take advantage of the overblown idea of the tax savings in Texas. Maybe it was the best deal. Theres a lot of things that go in to it.

But Radulov also hadnt just had 5 years of 30+ goal NHL seasons behind him. Everyone knew he was a good player, but definte character issues, and no prolonged NHL success. Maybe patches takes a discount like radulov might have - i guess well have to wait and see.

But if youre telling me hes ideally suited to be your teams 4th best forward - aka a second liner - he isnt returning 3 firsts in a trade. 2, sure. But not 3. You dont get to sell him as a contract as one thing, but try and establish his trade value as another. Thats the point im getting at.

Radulov took the deal with the Stars because it was the best offer and they have less taxes than most. Habs would of had to give Radulov well north of $7M to match the take home clear pay he would of got in Montreal.

At the end of the day, the rate for a #3 or #4 guy in your top 6 is somewhere between $5-$7M and I would give Patch no more than $6.5M. JVR is asking for 6x6.

 

[4thline]

Well the Habs drafted Poehling with the 25th pick and I keep getting told he is nothing special . You can't have it both ways where our late 1st round picks are nothing special while the Jets late first round picks are

In this specific case I'd strongly disagree with those calling Poehling nothing special. He was a steal at 25, and would have been my pick at 17 had Liljegren not been available. He was severely underrated because of people failing to factor in that late birthday 1st eligibles (the majority of players drafted out of the NCAA) are a full season more experienced.

On principle- what are you seven years old? Of course you can have it both ways. If team X's late 1st rounder's play is far exceeding expectations and team Y's is just matching expectations or failing to do so than they're not worth the same. Pretty damn simple concept.

True but hey haven’t been the top of cream type of prospect either. We still don’t know what their impact in the league will be. If they bust, we end up empty ended and you win the trade hands down.

If they become okay NHLers, you still win the trade.

We only win if they eventually become impactful NHL players, which they may or may not turn out. At least you know what you’ll get from Pacioretty

Based on they way they've produced and played they're both quite good bets to good top 6 players. I think one of them with the 1st and a couple B/C adds is reasonable. Two is greedy.

Pacioretty gives 1.25 seasons at 35 goals on a good cap hit.

How does that compare to 2 seasons as a good top 9 player on an elc + 5 seasons as a top 6 on an rfa deal
x 2 players
+ the 1st.

Your bolded completely fails to take into account the scale of the respective "wins", and the impact/ opportunity cost as it pertains to the contention window of a competing team.

The odds/ precedent are that you're not going to get piece(s) that you can pencil in as core pieces moving forward. If they have that upside it's going to come with a fair amount of risk. If there's limited bust risk then there's likely to be more limited upside. Look past the name brand guys, these deals are where your scouts earn their money.