Overrated Prospect Pool

[Peptic Balcers]

Will be curious to see how some of the other sources like Pronman and TSN rank the farms. Those types of rankings typically will be more informed about the under the radar guys.

Pronman had Ottawa 13th last year (before Karlsson trade)

And graduated/traded:
-Brady (1)
-White (6)
-Wolanain (7)
-Jaros (10)
-Luchuk
-Gagne

That's graduating 4 of the top 10. It will be interesting how the 2019 draft, in combination with the prospects acquired in the past 12 months moves the needle. I'd say that Ottawa slots between 9-12.

Their system is filled middle 6 guys and D that project in the 3-5 slots. Starving for top end talent.

 

[Micklebot]

Pronman had Ottawa 13th last year (before Karlsson trade)

And graduated/traded:
-Brady (1)
-White (6)
-Wolanain (7)
-Jaros (10)
-Luchuk
-Gagne

That's graduating 4 of the top 10. It will be interesting how the 2019 draft, in combination with the prospects acquired in the past 12 months moves the needle. I'd say that Ottawa slots between 9-12.

Their system is filled middle 6 guys and D that project in the 3-5 slots. Starving for top end talent.

So we added what?

Norris Balcers Abramov Brannstrom Davidsson along with draft pick in Thomson Pinto Sogaard ect.

 

[bert]

HF has been voting the best Pools and Ottawa is not a top 10 pool
Hf ranking prospect Pools #10

A user posted this


And I thought he is absolutely right... for a team that just sold of Stone, Hoffman, Duchene and EK...

How did this team not build one of the best farms in hockey

I think its legitimate. The sens dont have any truly elite forward prospects. Batherson is the only one even close to that type of player.

I dont think anyone overates this group really, its nothing special.

 

[Peptic Balcers]

So we added what?

Norris Balcers Abramov Brannstrom Davidsson along with draft pick in Thomson Pinto Sogaard ect.

looks right, but Pronman considers a prospect graduated if they play more that 25 NHL games in a season so Balcers would be graduated as he played 36 this year

 

[KnuckChuckinTkachuk]

Yeah and if we draft top 3 next year the "experts" are going to put us in the top 3-5 rankings for sure. It's just how these prospect lists work, you hit on one superstar pick and it vaults that team near the top.

 

[Peptic Balcers]

Yeah and if we draft top 3 next year the "experts" are going to put us in the top 3-5 rankings for sure. It's just how these prospect lists work, you hit on one superstar pick and it vaults that team near the top.

Exactly, Ottawa's only "Brand Name" prospects would be Brannstrom and Batherson

 

[BondraTime]

Yeah and if we draft top 3 next year the "experts" are going to put us in the top 3-5 rankings for sure. It's just how these prospect lists work, you hit on one superstar pick and it vaults that team near the top.

As it should, I’d rather 1 Barkov/MacKinmon/Huberdeau than 5 guys that will be low impact sure fire NHLers, which our pool is stocked full of.

 

[coladin]

Looking at what the Rangers have been able to get through draft picks and trades the past few years without trading away anyone even close to as good as Karlsson/Stone is depressing.

You take out the unexpected lottery win with Kakko, and are their top two prospect centres miles ahead of Norris and Brown?

I don’t know their centres, but I know you are more prospect savvy. They have been lucky with the acquisitions of Fox and Kakko

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

You take out the unexpected lottery win with Kakko, and are their top two prospect centres miles ahead of Norris and Brown?

I don’t know their centres, but I know you are more prospect savvy. They have been lucky with the acquisitions of Fox and Kakko

...and that's going to be another problem going forward. Draft lotto "luck." Probably best not to pin our hopes on a top 3 pick, and focus on 4th or 5th overall.

And hope the scouts can work some magic in later rounds.

 

[Que]

Dohrion is gambling that he will out smart the system?

I believe the other veteran GMs are making a consertive effort to screw the sens.

We all hate our management, right?

And we’re fanatical about the Senators.

Imagine how rational people feel about Dorion and co.

Of course he’s getting low balled and pushed over by everyone.

 

[KnuckChuckinTkachuk]

As it should, I’d rather 1 Barkov/MacKinmon/Huberdeau than 5 guys that will be low impact sure fire NHLers, which our pool is stocked full of.

Oh absolutely but on the flip side, would you want 1 stud prospect and not much behind him? (kind of like McDavid in EDM).

I think PD's strategy is considering prospects almost like lotto tickets with the "I'm bound to hit on one" mentality were as most Sens fans would rather us target quality skilled players over quantity but alas here we are.

I do really like our depth at all positions (except maybe Wingers) and if we hit a top 3 pick either in 2020-2021, it'll really complete our pool.

 

[Just Linda]

HF has been voting the best Pools and Ottawa is not a top 10 pool
Hf ranking prospect Pools #10

A user posted this


And I thought he is absolutely right... for a team that just sold of Stone, Hoffman, Duchene and EK...

How did this team not build one of the best farms in hockey

Yes, I should explain this better eh?

First off, I love Brannstrom. I don't project him ever being a true number 1, I see him as a 2/3d. There's a lot about his game that I just adore though, I love that y'all wrangled him out of Vegas. The biggest kicker imho is that he plays the same side as Chabot.

Batherson is great too. I project him as a top 6 forward easily, I'm hesitant to throw about top line about most players but I could see him becoming one.

Those 2 are both great pieces and could easily hit their ceilings. The concern among scouts though is that those are Ottawa's remaining high end pieces in their system and neither is a centre.

I got to watch Norris live a couple times this season. The general debate was between those who felt he was going to be a solid middle 6 centre and those who felt bottom 6 was his ceiling. I leaned with the middle 6 camp, we definitely had more members in our camp. He's a good player but asking him to be a top line centre would just be asking way too much from him.

To copy paste from elsewhere, It's a nice pool with lots of guys who even fit into Ottawa's system, good number of NHL talent players but I couldn't justify placing it ahead of Vegas with Glass, NYI with their defencemen, Anaheim with their high end skilled forwards etc. Those above mentioned teams are mid tier teams.

Anaheim is a good comparable imho. Sam Steel, Max Comtois, Troy Terry... I'd take those 3 over Norris, Brannstrom, and Batherson. Anaheim would still have a couple good prospects in their system (Zegras for example) who project really high.

If I was a contender, I'd love to have Ottawa's pool because a lot of their prospects will fill a lot of holes for teams. Without a potential 1c in their system, without a 1/2d to play with Chabot (Brannstrom being same handed) and without elite scoring (which gets you those things), Ottawa just doesn't have what it needs from its pool.

 

[ATdaisuki]

i think our prospect pool is very deep. we have everything we need except one or two high end forwards. good thing we're bottoming out in a draft where we'll be able to get one of them. we should be bad the season after next as well. we have nine picks in the first two rounds of the next two drafts. at least two of them should be really high picks. i'm not worried about the prospect pool or the future talent wise. i'm just worried about being able to keep the team together.

 

[dumbdick]

Counterpoint... the club had four blue chip assets in EK, Hoffman, Stone and Duchene to kick off a rebuild

And the best forward prospect from that haul was Josh Norris

I’m not exactly sure how you can have any confidence in this “rebuild”

You know we got picks too, right?

 

[BondraTime]

You take out the unexpected lottery win with Kakko, and are their top two prospect centres miles ahead of Norris and Brown?

I don’t know their centres, but I know you are more prospect savvy. They have been lucky with the acquisitions of Fox and Kakko

Well Chytil and Anderson were drafted in the same draft as Norris and Chytil definitely the better C prospect than our 2 (in my definition, he has 84 games over the past 2 seasons back and fourth from the AHL and NHL). Lias Anderson isn’t living up to his top 10 pick status yet, but he had a “decent” 19/20 year old season between the AHL and NHL.

Then you add Kravtsov as a better prospect than all of our guys at any position.

Miller is likely the best D after Brannstrom, not including Fox.

We have the edge on goalies I would think, though I admittedly don’t know too much, and don’t put much stock in them as prospects.

Getting Trouba for a song

Adding Lemieux

They’ve made a complete rebuild very quickly, obviously with the help of signing Panarin and lottery luck.

Kakko-Zib-Panarin may be one of the best lines as soon as next year, at a total cost of about 17 million.

They’ve added a #1 D and two #1 wingers in the span of a month, and Neal Pionk + Winnipegs 1st was all they gave up, they’ve knocked out out of the park.

 

[coladin]

Well Chytil and Anderson were drafted in the same draft as Norris and Chytil definitely the better C prospect than our 2 (in my definition, he has 84 games over the past 2 seasons back and fourth from the AHL and NHL). Lias Anderson isn’t living up to his top 10 pick status yet, but he had a “decent” 19/20 year old season between the AHL and NHL.

Then you add Kravtsov as a better prospect than all of our guys at any position.

Miller is likely the best D after Brannstrom, not including Fox.

We have the edge on goalies I would think, though I admittedly don’t know too much, and don’t put much stock in them as prospects.

Getting Trouba for a song

Adding Lemieux

They’ve made a complete rebuild very quickly, obviously with the help of signing Panarin and lottery luck.

Kakko-Zib-Panarin may be one of the best lines as soon as next year, at a total cost of about 17 million.

They’ve added a #1 D and two #1 wingers in the span of a month, they’ve knocked out out of the park.

Thanks for the breakdown, they are going to be much better this year, but i was asking in relation to Barron and Henriksson compared to Brown and Norris?

 

[KnuckChuckinTkachuk]

Yes, I should explain this better eh?

First off, I love Brannstrom. I don't project him ever being a true number 1, I see him as a 2/3d. There's a lot about his game that I just adore though, I love that y'all wrangled him out of Vegas. The biggest kicker imho is that he plays the same side as Chabot.

Batherson is great too. I project him as a top 6 forward easily, I'm hesitant to throw about top line about most players but I could see him becoming one.

Those 2 are both great pieces and could easily hit their ceilings. The concern among scouts though is that those are Ottawa's remaining high end pieces in their system and neither is a centre.

I got to watch Norris live a couple times this season. The general debate was between those who felt he was going to be a solid middle 6 centre and those who felt bottom 6 was his ceiling. I leaned with the middle 6 camp, we definitely had more members in our camp. He's a good player but asking him to be a top line centre would just be asking way too much from him.

To copy paste from elsewhere, It's a nice pool with lots of guys who even fit into Ottawa's system, good number of NHL talent players but I couldn't justify placing it ahead of Vegas with Glass, NYI with their defencemen, Anaheim with their high end skilled forwards etc. Those above mentioned teams are mid tier teams.

Anaheim is a good comparable imho. Sam Steel, Max Comtois, Troy Terry... I'd take those 3 over Norris, Brannstrom, and Batherson. Anaheim would still have a couple good prospects in their system (Zegras for example) who project really high.

If I was a contender, I'd love to have Ottawa's pool because a lot of their prospects will fill a lot of holes for teams. Without a potential 1c in their system, without a 1/2d to play with Chabot (Brannstrom being same handed) and without elite scoring (which gets you those things), Ottawa just doesn't have what it needs from its pool.

Agreed on all points. I think if we can draft a high end C and a top pairing RD with our 2020 picks, we will be set.

Anddd man if Norris could become anything similar to Bo Hovart I will be ecstatic.

 

[BondraTime]

Thanks for the breakdown, they are going to be much better this year, but i was asking in relation to Barron and Henriksson compared to Brown and Norris?

Don’t know too much/anything of Henriksson aside from reading a scouting report or two and seeing where he was drafted, I can’t really say anything about him with any kind of insight or knowledge.

Love Barron, saw a lot of him at a younger age at the Monctonian and league games, been a big fan of his (and his brothers to a much bigger respect) for a while. Thought they got a steal when they drafted him, and he proved to be a legit guy this year.

I’d say Barron is closer to Norris/Brown than he is farther (if that makes any sense), and wouldn’t think anything of someone taking any of the three over the other.

It’s the high end talent they have gotten that is the difference, to go along with an extremely impressive young NHL core.

 

[ottawah]

We have great depth but no elite prospect. Without having had the time to do a deep dive on all the other pools I'd guess we are somewhere in the 7 to 12th range.

And thats the issue. 75% of these depth prospects never really make it, and only 5% of them become real difference makers. I think some of Ottawas prospects are above average depth prospects, but not really elite.

Most prospect pools are defined by their elite prospects, those with a near cannot miss tag on them. Having 1 1st liner ready in your minors is better than having 5 bottom 6 guys, you can always grab them off free agency and cheap on the trade block.

I've been a bit more of a Batherson fan for a bit and think he has top 6 potential. The rest unsure about (as far as top line potential). I still want to see more of Brannstrom, if he can be a Barrie type, great, but he will have to put up points, otherwise I do not think he has the type of game to be a great 2nd or 3rd pairing player.

So for now I'd agree without seeing the rankings, just know Ottawa does not likely have a top 10 prospect, to me that explains it. But within two years as these draft picks start to come in and the current depth players make their cases, I think Ottawa easily moves into a top 5 position.

 

[Bevans]

Well Chytil and Anderson were drafted in the same draft as Norris and Chytil definitely the better C prospect than our 2 (in my definition, he has 84 games over the past 2 seasons back and fourth from the AHL and NHL). Lias Anderson isn’t living up to his top 10 pick status yet, but he had a “decent” 19/20 year old season between the AHL and NHL.

Then you add Kravtsov as a better prospect than all of our guys at any position.

Miller is likely the best D after Brannstrom, not including Fox.

We have the edge on goalies I would think, though I admittedly don’t know too much, and don’t put much stock in them as prospects.

Getting Trouba for a song

Adding Lemieux

They’ve made a complete rebuild very quickly, obviously with the help of signing Panarin and lottery luck.

Kakko-Zib-Panarin may be one of the best lines as soon as next year, at a total cost of about 17 million.

They’ve added a #1 D and two #1 wingers in the span of a month, and Neal Pionk + Winnipegs 1st was all they gave up, they’ve knocked out out of the park.

You think the Senators have better goalie prospect depth than the Rangers? Shestyorkin is a top 5 goalie prospect.

You can stack goalies as high as you want but you're only allowed to play one at a time.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

It's all quantity over quality. The Karlsson trade of prospect pools if you will.

 

[supsens]

Counterpoint... the club had four blue chip assets in EK, Hoffman, Stone and Duchene to kick off a rebuild

And the best forward prospect from that haul was Josh Norris

I’m not exactly sure how you can have any confidence in this “rebuild”

They have 3 years of first round picks and six years of second round picks over the next two years, with the two second rounders from this year one of the 8 second rounders should fluke into a strong player,
8 years worth of second round picks? as far as rebuild goes they are sitting not to bad.

 

[Tuna99]

St Louis doesn’t have any elite talent so you can win a Cup without a Crosby or Doughty.

But we do have elite talent, Chabot is a top 3 NHL Dman and Tkachuk is the best power forward in the NHL.

 

[Sens]

They have 3 years of first round picks and six years of second round picks over the next two years, with the two second rounders from this year one of the 8 second rounders should fluke into a strong player,
8 years worth of second round picks? as far as rebuild goes they are sitting not to bad.

Nice slot of picks to pay teams salary bonuses with

 

[supsens]

Nice slot of picks to pay teams salary bonuses with

Well if it saves enough money to keep the team from going bankrupt and possibly moving, good.
And I havn’t seen them trade any seconds for this made up scenario of yours, so I will worry about it if it happens but untill then I will count how many first round prospects and picks we received this year and how many first round and second round picks we have over the next two years.
It adds up and quantity is needed to build a team so the numbers check out, so far so good