I shouldn't have voted so soon. With the impending trades we're likely to make and our 5-game losing streak, I was feeling blue and voted that we were likely to miss. I'm looking now and it's almost absurd, we will have to really shit the bed. Which, given our history, is entirely possible... but consider this:
Last year's playoff line was 97 points. Let's use that for our minimal point target:
With their loss tonight, Philadelphia sits at 25-24-7 for 57 points, a full 8 back from us and Pissburgh. They own a -24 goal differential and have 23 ROW. With 26 games left, they will have go something like 18-4-4 or 20-6 to get to 97 points. Unless they go on a ridiculous tear, they are going to be a hard sell. Every team below them in the standings is in less of a chance to get in.
Buffalo sits at 27-21-7 for 61 points. They own a -8 goal differential and, like Philly, have 23 ROW. But they are trending the wrong way at 6-11-1 since Christmas. Their young, patchwork defense is tearing its ugly head and their goaltending is very suspect. They will need to gain 26 points in their final 27 games, very doable... but they have some UFA concerns of their own in Jeff Skinner. Do they add at the deadline for a playoff run? Or do they look to continue to build for a brighter future? I don't think this team stands pat either way.
Carolina is right on the outside looking in. Unlike Buffalo they have been hot, going 13-6-1 since Christmas. They own a 28-22-6 record this year, with 27 ROW and an even goal differential, good for 62 points in the standings. Carolina will need 35 points in its final 26 games, a very achievable task. But the unknown in Carolina remains - many people still consider them to be sellers at the deadline, with a glut of right hand defensemen and a big UFA forward that could be shopped. If they don't get immediate help, it will be tough for them to get in. And don't overlook their goaltending either, they have struggled with staying healthy and consistent at that position all year.
Let's face it, there's no way the Caps or Penguins miss the playoffs. The Isles will need a monumental collapse to miss. The Habs look like they will get in, and we know that Boston and Toronto are going to be there. Tampa may as well already have the president's trophy locked up. So let's see what it takes for us:
Argument's sake, all three of the teams I just mentioned get to 97 points, we need 98.
Columbus sits at 31-20-3, all 31 wins in regulation or overtime, and a +10 goal differential. We have 65 points, so 33 is what I think it will take us to get a sure spot. We have 27 games to get 33 points, so a record of 16-10-1 should pretty much lock the CBJ in.
This team is good enough to do that, but the obvious deadline questions loom. Hopefully this long post brings some encouragement
