I’m going to address the question of SELL vs BUY. I know there are opposing viewpoints.
In late summer, I suggested we should be open to selling. There were a few reasons. First, we would be able to replenish a lot of what we spent last year. Second, we seemed to have a solid crop of younger players we could build around and the assets we’d get in return for players like Bahl would go a long way towards bolstering our roster without going through lean draft years. Also, if we buy this year, we likely sell next year so it was more a matter of identifying which year would be the sell year.
As we are now getting close to the decision time, we’ve now seen the status of the league and how we fit in it. Here are my observations that go into the thought process of SELL vs BUY:
1> Robertson is out for the season and may be done for his career.
2> Tolnai is not proving to be a centre that can stir the drink. HE may still have value as a winger.
3> Both Okhotyuk and Rippon seem to have hit their ceiling from a development perspective and have not made a leap forward this year.
4> Both Rossi and Hoelscher are premier Centres.
5> The overall forward depth gives us two scoring lines. The remainder of the forwards comprise of marginal veterans and green rookies.
6> Hoefenmeyer returned and has proven to be a force offensively.
7> Andree has proven to be a top of the league goalie.
Clearly there are some positives and negatives. We can’t expect all positive. On the balance, it is more positive than negative.
The league itself doesn’t seem to have a front runner. That’s good and bad. The good means we don’t have to catch anyone but the bad is there are a cluster of teams that all feel they have a chance which means it may shape up to be a sellers market for forwards and defence (non-OA). That means the costs will rise as more teams will be bidding.
The big question is whether this management team will take the same approach as last year with respect to trading roster players. We do have some picks but we aren’t flush like last year. I believe we have five 2nds and three 3rds plus a ton of 4ths. The 4ths don’t really hold much trade value. If we did manage to work out a picks based deal for a stud forward, it would pretty much empty that cupboard of 2nds and 3rds.
Since we need an entire 3rd line, and possibly a D-Man, depending on what happens with Clarke, we need to stretch those assets out. To me, we need a 3rd line centre and winger that can score to help stretch our scoring out. We also need some sort of D-Man that can chew up big minutes.
We have Matier, Tolnai, and Belanger that can be dangled and not hurt us in the top 6 forward group or top 4 defence group. These are the three guys that can potentially get us the best return. None of the other players really have much value. We also need to assume the NCAA players currently not signed also have no value as they all seem pretty steadfastly committed to College.
If we buy three players and don’t have to dramatically overpay, we will have a really good opportunity to win this year provided one other team doesn’t go stupid like Guelph did last year. However, that does come at a cost.
We will have very little left of value from a draft pick perspective for the next five years. This sets up the need to potentially sell off players like Clarke, Quinn, and Rossi next year. I firmly believe if you draft well and manage your assets well, you can make a push once every four years and not overly affect your competitive balance year over year. The problem is if you decide to push in back to back years, you will end up in that win-lose cycle. Win two years and lose two years. I don’t think this management team is interested in that approach.
So, yes, I do feel we have a much better chance of doing damage this year than either of the following two years. Mostly that is because Robertson is done (think Gabe Vilardi) and Tolnai isn’t going to be an impact player at centre. That is a gaping hole needing to be filled and we drafted Defence and wingers the last three drafts. We are very short down the middle.
Because next year looks like a bit of a write off depending on who comes back, it is probably wise to make a push this year over next. That does require the loss of Matier though. It will also probably cost us Belanger or Tolnai. Potentially, they could find the right mix and it only costs us one fo those three which would be great but I am not too sure we can acquire three players with just picks and one young guy, especially with our OA spots filled. That will be the trade-off.
