Orpik's Inevitable Re-sign (Now with 100% Less Nathan Horton)

[penguins2946*]

As soon as Letang comes back, I'm expecting Niskanen to be traded. At that point, either Maatta will stay up or Despres will get recalled and Maatta sent to the OHL. Seeing how sending Maatta to the OHL doesn't burn a year on his ELC, I'm expecting that. So, I'm expecting:

Letang-Scuderi
Orpik-Martin
Despres-Bortuzzo
Engelland

Next year really depends on how Despres looks this year. If he is solid in the #5 spot, he will slide up and take Orpik's spot along Martin, and Maatta will slide into the #5 spot. If he's not solid, he will probably be traded, Orpik re-signed and Maatta at the #5 spot. Dumoulin would be in the #7 spot, and he will get plenty of games due to the inevitable injuries to the D. I'm hoping for the first option, so I'll go with that. The D at that point would be:

Letang-Scuderi
Despres-Martin
Maatta-Bortuzzo
Dumoulin

The year after, I don't expect Martin to be retained. I'm expecting him to want 1 more big paycheck, which the Pens can't give him. This is the year that the lines get changed up. I think, at that point, Bortuzzo will be a serviceable top-4 D, so another Orpik-Martin pair will be made with Bortuzzo and Despres. Also, I don't think that Scuderi will be able to handle top-4 minutes anymore, so I think he will slide down the lineup to the bottom pair to mentor young D, in this case, Dumoulin. I'm expecting:

Maatta-Letang
Despres-Bortuzzo
Scuderi-Dumoulin
Harrington

The year after gets too hairy to predict. If Scuderi only had a 3 year deal, he would go and Harrington would just take his spot. However, he has a full NTC, and I'm not sure he would retire before this deal would be over. Also, other D like Ruopp, Samuelsson and Pouliot will probably be knocking on the door at this point, and because of the abundance of D prospects we have, we will probably have to trade some D prospects or lose them to waivers. That's an inevitable situation with Shero's drafting strategy.

 

[MrBurghundy]

I'd like to say I'll loose it if Orpik is back, but I pretty much expect it, so I find it hard to get too worked up.

 

[Ogrezilla]

I'd like to say I'll loose it if Orpik is back, but I pretty much expect it, so I find it hard to get too worked up.

I hope I am never in this negative of a place with this team. I think bringing back Orpik might be the thing that would take me there though.

 

[AjaxTelamon]

My worst fear is an Orpik re-sign, but I hope he wants a big contract, and think someone will give it to him. Shero is not that guy.

The fact that Martin expires a year later is also hurting Orpik's chances, as Shero will realize he can't sign them both, and will begin discussions with PM's camp as the signing date approaches.

 

[Ugene Magic]

and as long as Orpik is here, no one will ever get the chance to prove they can do it.

That's a fallacy, point being, no one does what Orpik provides, and if no can prove this with 15 to 18 minutes of icetime they don't deserve to oust him of his roster spot.

15 to 18 minutes is the stepping platform, plenty enough minutes to see, and it's up to Bortuzzo to show he can do it, consistently. Currently, Orpik is eating 23:00 of ice time.

 

[MrBurghundy]

I hope I am never in this negative of a place with this team. I think bringing back Orpik might be the thing that would take me there though.

I wouldn't call it negative as much as apathetic. I can't do anything about who they sign so why even bother getting worked up over it anymore?

 

[Fire Shero*]

I'm shocked Shero hasn't re- signed yet. I get nervous before I read every pens text because fearing it was say pens sign Orpik to a 4-year $18 million contract.

The Scuderi signing has me worried that the young guys will never be able to play anything above bottom pairing minutes while incompetent Shero snd Bylsma run this team.

Draft some damn forwards, schmuck

 

[JTG]

I think he'll be back. Same number...3 years. Right or wrong...who knows?

 

[MrBurghundy]

That's a fallacy, point being, no one does what Orpik provides, and if no can prove this with 15 to 18 minutes of icetime they don't deserve to oust him of his roster spot.

15 to 18 minutes is the stepping platform, plenty enough minutes to see, and it's up to Bortuzzo to show he can do it, consistently. Currently, Orpik is eating 23:00 of ice time.

Orpik is falsely portrayed as being extremely physical and nobody can replace what he does. Sure he lays the lumber every so often, but when he's not doing that he isn't any more physical than any of our other defensemen. In fact I see him regularly just let guys stand in front of our goalie for example.

 

[JTG]

The proof that Orpik's shelf life is nearly up is when they were talking to him in the playoffs last year, and he basically said that he half ***** it throughout the year to have juice left for the playoffs.

 

[JTG]

And there has to come a tipping point here where the organization either let's the young guys play or we just routinely turn young guys over. Steelers are showing right now what happens when you stay with the vets and let the young guys leave.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Orpik is falsely portrayed as being extremely physical and nobody can replace what he does. Sure he lays the lumber every so often, but when he's not doing that he isn't any more physical than any of our other defensemen. In fact I see him regularly just let guys stand in front of our goalie for example.

The proof that Orpik's shelf life is nearly up is when they were talking to him in the playoffs last year, and he basically said that he half ***** it throughout the year to have juice left for the playoffs.

You guys mean these past 2/3 seasons whilist nursing injuries?

Healthy Orpik, these guys don't quite match up to his hardnosed self. None of them put "fear" into opposing players more. For good reason too.

 

[JTG]

You guys mean these past 2/3 seasons whilist nursing injuries?

Healthy Orpik, these guys don't quite match up to his hardnosed self. None of them put "fear" into opposing players more. For good reason too.

The injuries are part of him breaking down UM.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Orpik is falsely portrayed as being extremely physical and nobody can replace what he does. Sure he lays the lumber every so often, but when he's not doing that he isn't any more physical than any of our other defensemen. In fact I see him regularly just let guys stand in front of our goalie for example.

I agree

The injuries are part of him breaking down UM.

I agree

At this point, Orpik is able to play 23 effective minutes a game largely because he is paired with Martin. He could not anchor a pairing like that at this stage of his career. Orpik needs that steady partner to allow him to step up into his big hits. He takes himself out of position as often as any of our offensive guys do.

Can Bortuzzo play 20 minutes a night with Niskanen? No. Could he play 20 minutes a night with Martin? Its a lot more likely. Add Despres, Harrington, Maatta and Dumoulin into the mix of guys who can fill spots and I think its an easy call to let Orpik go.

 

[Ugene Magic]

The injuries are part of him breaking down UM.

People do still heal even at 32 years old. That's 32, not 35,36,37,38,39.

When these young guys are ready, fine, but from everything I've seen these past couple seasons none of them are ready for 23:00 games consistently.

How do you find out if they are? Not at the expense of trying to win more than regular season games.

So...Lets leave at everyone better hope they win the cup this year, that's the only way I'd let him walk.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

People do still heal even at 32 years old. That's 32, not 35,36,37,38,39.

When these young guys are ready, fine, but from everything I've seen these past couple seasons none of them are ready for 23:00 games consistently.

How do you find out if they are? Not at the expense of trying to win more than regular season games.

So...Lets leave at everyone better hope they win the cup this year, that's the only way I'd let him walk.

Who are you trading to keep Orpik? Sutter or Despres? Both will get some form of raise next season.
Unless the Pens are purposely trying to hold Despres back in a contract year, he is going to still at least double his salary.

Then, who will replace them?

I already showed how difficult it will be to keep Orpik around when the Letang and Malkin deals kick in and I recall you agreeing after seeing the cold hard numbers.

 

[Sidgeni Malkby]

The injuries are part of him breaking down UM.

So is Crosby breaking down?
Is Malkin breaking down?
Are Letang and Neal breaking down this year?

If Orpik hadn't stepped it up big time in the playoffs last year, I'd be all for getting rid of him.

Remember we dropped Scud and Gill and realized our mistake years later what value they brought. Gill pretty much single handedly clutched and grabbed his way into beating us in the playoffs, and Scud has another cup to talk about.

You would think replacing Scud would have been easy but it wasn't.

Orpik is the same IMO.

I already showed how difficult it will be to keep Orpik around when the Letang and Malkin deals kick in and I recall you agreeing after seeing the cold hard numbers.

If numbers dictate, then that is a valid reason.

The air of the thread so far has been "he sucks, we don't need him" vs "Orpik has priced himself out of Pittsburgh".

 

[Ogrezilla]

We are going to have cap trouble again next year. We have a bunch of young d-men. If we keep Orpik and have to lose these guys then Shero has really really screwed up his entire team building strategy.

 

[IcedCapp]

One of them would be with Martin for a bit before Pouliot sees the NHL with any regularity.

Yeah, I should have just said, "I don't see how we fit all of these Dmen on the blue line in the next 3 years. Harrington seems like a lock. Bortuzzo should be kept. Maatta seems like a lock by next year. Letang is obviously here for a while.

That's 4. Scuderi has a 4-year contract, so he's going to be there a while.

Dumoulin, Despres, Pouliot are all fighting to replace Orpik? Doesn't make sense to have any of these guys at #7. Engelland is the perfect #7.

They're going to have to trade one or two of these guys at some point.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

If numbers dictate, then that is a valid reason.

The air of the thread so far has been "he sucks, we don't need him" vs "Orpik has priced himself out of Pittsburgh".

I have been a huge Orpik fan since he was drafted, but the Letang and Scuds signings make it almost impossible to re-up him without really cutting corners elsewhere on the roster.

And as I touched on before, he took a big discount to stay in '08. This is his last big deal and he could really cash in as an UFA, given his reputation around the league.

 

[Ogrezilla]

If numbers dictate, then that is a valid reason.

The air of the thread so far has been "he sucks, we don't need him" vs "Orpik has priced himself out of Pittsburgh".

Its some of both. He is the worst of our top 4 d-men when healthy, and we have cheaper young guys ready to step in. If we were building our team purely to win for one season and with no salary cap, I would keep Orpik next year. But we are building the team for the long term and there is a salary cap.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Yeah, I should have just said, "I don't see how we fit all of these Dmen on the blue line in the next 3 years. Harrington seems like a lock. Bortuzzo should be kept. Maatta seems like a lock by next year. Letang is obviously here for a while.

That's 4. Scuderi has a 4-year contract, so he's going to be there a while.

Dumoulin, Despres, Pouliot are all fighting to replace Orpik? Doesn't make sense to have any of these guys at #7. Engelland is the perfect #7.

They're going to have to trade one or two of these guys at some point.

Absolutely. If my goal was to be a Penguin for life, I wouldn't want to be the first of these kids to carve out a top 4 spot.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

We are going to have cap trouble again next year. We have a bunch of young d-men. If we keep Orpik and have to lose these guys then Shero has really really screwed up his entire team building strategy.

Yup. This sums it up well, I think.

Orpik has been a big part of the team for a long time and a favorite of mine. But he's hardly irreplaceable. And anyone thinking that he can be had for some sort of discount on his next contract probably aren't being terribly realistic... especially considering he's already sacrificed some money to stick around, previously. The last thing I'd want to see is a ~4 million dollar defenseman playing on the third pairing because he's been passed by and simultaneously blocking the progression of the team's multiple promising young defensemen. It just doesn't make any sense, considering the direction this team has chosen to go when it comes to building from the draft.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Who are you trading to keep Orpik? Sutter or Despres? Both will get some form of raise next season.
Unless the Pens are purposely trying to hold Despres back in a contract year, he is going to still at least double his salary.

Then, who will replace them?

I already showed how difficult it will be to keep Orpik around when the Letang and Malkin deals kick in and I recall you agreeing after seeing the cold hard numbers.

Times change, and so do opinions.

They have Geno's and Letangs figures already figured in at capgeek showing almost 10.0 in space, and added to that would be what the cap goes up for the Pens before signing anyone else with projections is near 15.480.

Prove to me "now" they can't sign some bottom six forwards, resign Orpik + a #7, and a backup goalie?

Orpik and sutter 3.750 + 3.5 = 7.250

You need 5 more bottom six, 1 more D-man(bottom pairing 6/7, and one backup goailie. You have actually 8.230833 to use.


Plausible?


I'd say.

Jeffrey- not getting a huge raise
Kobasew- Probably a raise to 1.5
Vitale- yep not a huge raise
++? others within? Entry level contracts

= A little over 4.0

one of: Despres, Dumoulin, or Maatta depending on who's still here and on the roster already.

.831667 to 1.5

Backup goaltender: They're not spending 2.0 or more on a back up again.

1.0

I'm seeing that be in the 7.0 range with a healthy buffer.


KCD
BMJ
___,Sutter,___
__, __, Adams
13th forward

S,L
O,M
B,D
Dumoulin, Maatta,

 

[Darth Vitale]

Bad assumption by the OP and the best evidence is:

Orpik's skills aside (he CAN still be a force when healthy, so the only real question is how healthy he can stay the next 3-4 years -- last year he admitted he takes some of the edge off during the season otherwise he "wouldn't even make it to the playoffs"), my reading of the Scuds signing is that they prefer that "veteran leadership guy" to be Scuderi, not Orpik. That's NOT to say they think Scuderi can play Orpik's game, but that he can provide the leadership and playoff attitude they need the next 3-4 years. IMO Bortuzzo is the guy being groomed to take Orpik's spot.

Also I think the longer the team goes without negotiating with him, the more of an attitude he'll get about it and just walk. He's going to cash in somewhere, and it won't be here. He's got about 4-5 solid years left and he's going to make some big coin on a young team that would kill to have a guy like that. Maybe Colorado (very young, thin D), or even Washington (soft as hell). I don't relish the thought of Crosby playing against Orpik 5x a year but it is more likely than the Penguins giving him 5M a year or something like that.

The only way Orpik stays is if the cap goes WAY up next summer (like 5-6M up), and the Pens decide to give him a short-term big money deal. 2-3 years, 5M... something like that. If he wants big term, he's gone. If he wants 6M+, he's gone, if the cap only goes back up 3-4M, he's gone.