Orpik's Inevitable Re-sign (Now with 100% Less Nathan Horton)

Mr Jiggyfly

Registered User
Jan 29, 2004
34,240
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Yeah, I should have just said, "I don't see how we fit all of these Dmen on the blue line in the next 3 years. Harrington seems like a lock. Bortuzzo should be kept. Maatta seems like a lock by next year. Letang is obviously here for a while.

That's 4. Scuderi has a 4-year contract, so he's going to be there a while.

Dumoulin, Despres, Pouliot are all fighting to replace Orpik? Doesn't make sense to have any of these guys at #7. Engelland is the perfect #7.

They're going to have to trade one or two of these guys at some point.

Ruopp should be in this discussion as well. He is like Bort in terms of not being a sexy prospect that is always overlooked, but he is going to be a monster when he fills out (6'3 220 maybe), and he hits to injure.

Best of all he can skate and isn't offensively Pejorative Slured.
 

IcedCapp

Registered User
Aug 7, 2009
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Penguins will have, let's say, $15M in cap space next year.

They could play Maatta and Despres and pay a #7 800k and have ~13MM to rebuilt their bottom-6.

Or they could pay Orpik ~$3.5MM, lose another year of Maatta and/or Despres (or have to trade one of them), lose a spot for Dumoulin/Harrington/Poulit in the subsequent years, and only have ~11MM to rebuild the bottom-6.

4 more years of the status quo~!
 

Ogrezilla

Nerf Herder
Jul 5, 2009
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Orpik isn't staying here without a raise. He took a discount last time. Now he's seen us sign Letang to a huge deal, Martin to 5M and Michalek to 4M. He will be looking for some cash. Someone will give it to him.
 

IcedCapp

Registered User
Aug 7, 2009
35,854
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Ruopp should be in this discussion as well. He is like Bort in terms of not being a sexy prospect that is always overlooked, but he is going to be a monster when he fills out (6'3 220 maybe), and he hits to injure.

Best of all he can skate and isn't offensively Pejorative Slured.

I guess I overlook Ruopp because every time the Michalek trade is discussed they talk about how Michalek was just given away.
 

Darth Vitale

Dark Matter
Aug 21, 2003
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Penguins will have, let's say, $15M in cap space next year.

Where'd that number come from? I think it's really hard to know but the odds we have that much space seem pretty low. $8-10M seems more likely based on the fact we're not going to let all our FA go to the summer un-signed. There is some question about Sutter, Juice, probably Nisky is gone for sure... but 15M is big number. I'd say we'll free up maybe 4-5M in player space, and the cap will give us 3-4M more. 15M seems like a fairly tale unless I'm missing something.
 

IcedCapp

Registered User
Aug 7, 2009
35,854
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Where'd that number come from? I think it's really hard to know but the odds we have that much space seem pretty low. $8-10M seems more likely based on the fact we're not going to let all our FA go to the summer un-signed. There is some question about Sutter, Juice, probably Nisky is gone for sure... but 15M is big number. I'd say we'll free up maybe 4-5M in player space, and the cap will give us 3-4M more. 15M seems like a fairly tale unless I'm missing something.

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Chris Kunitz ($3.850m) / Sidney Crosby ($8.700m) / Pascal Dupuis ($3.750m)
Beau Bennett ($0.900m) / Evgeni Malkin ($9.500m) / James Neal ($5.000m)
Craig Adams ($0.700m)
DEFENSEMEN
Rob Scuderi ($3.375m) / Kris Letang ($7.250m)
Olli Maatta ($0.894m) / Paul Martin ($5.000m)
Robert Bortuzzo ($0.600m)
GOALTENDERS
Marc-Andre Fleury ($5.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $70,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $54,519,167; BONUSES: $0
CAP SPACE (13-man roster): $15,480,833


It's assuming the cap goes back to $70MM, and no, I didn't re-sign any of the RFAs.
 

chethejet

Registered User
Feb 4, 2012
8,293
1,790
Orpik is valuable as a team leader and needed physicality. The issue is grooming young players who offer upside as Orpik declines. Pens need young legs and Harrington and Matta are just to good to not play in the NHL. Posted Matta would be the best all around defensemen. Kid is a stud as he grows and matures. Next year I want this:
Latang/Scud
Nisky/Harrington
Borts/Matta

Cap room to go after a forward and sign Sutter and need cap room if MAF tanks to go get a goalie.
 

Ugene Magic

EVIL LAUGH
Oct 17, 2008
54,151
18,550
Pittsburgh
Where'd that number come from? I think it's really hard to know but the odds we have that much space seem pretty low. $8-10M seems more likely based on the fact we're not going to let all our FA go to the summer un-signed. There is some question about Sutter, Juice, probably Nisky is gone for sure... but 15M is big number. I'd say we'll free up maybe 4-5M in player space, and the cap will give us 3-4M more. 15M seems like a fairly tale unless I'm missing something.

Capgeek has them at $9,780,833 using the old 64.3 cap, now add what the cap goes up.

http://www.capgeek.com/penguins/

$70.0 - $54,519,167 = 15.480

Those numbers are as is no one else is signed yet.
 

Darth Vitale

Dark Matter
Aug 21, 2003
28,172
114
Darkness
Iced you removed the entire 3rd line and 2/3 of the 4th line... :laugh:

That's what I'm saying... those slots will not all be empty by summer. We're going to re-sign some of those guys before it gets to that point (some may even be filled before the deadline). Just a question of which ones. I think Orpik and Niskanen are the most likely departure candidates. That's about 5M+

Sutter, Juice, Vitale... all these guys are likely to be re-signed. Sutter because there isn't a good alternative immediately available, Juice because he's playing really well / showing a lot of versatility in all situations, Vitale because he's virtuous. One of Kobasew and D'Ags is also likely to get a cheap deal signed IMO.

If you think we're going into June with all those slots un-accounted for, you're kidding yourself. Also, all of those guys I mention, are still relatively cheap. The odds of a big raise for any, are slim. For the purposes of these kinds of discussions, I think it's much wiser to assume a max of 6M freed up space, then add the cap increase you think is likely (I think it will be about 3-4M).
 

Ogrezilla

Nerf Herder
Jul 5, 2009
75,534
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Pittsburgh
Orpik is valuable as a team leader and needed physicality. The issue is grooming young players who offer upside as Orpik declines. Pens need young legs and Harrington and Matta are just to good to not play in the NHL. Posted Matta would be the best all around defensemen. Kid is a stud as he grows and matures. Next year I want this:
Latang/Scud
Nisky/Harrington
Borts/Matta

Cap room to go after a forward and sign Sutter and need cap room if MAF tanks to go get a goalie.

so you want to get rid of Martin but keep Nisky? No. That's wrong.
 

Ogrezilla

Nerf Herder
Jul 5, 2009
75,534
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Pittsburgh
Iced you removed the entire 3rd line and 2/3 of the 4th line... :laugh:

That's what I'm saying... those slots will not all be empty by summer. We're going to re-sign some of those guys before it gets to that point. Just a question of which ones. I think Orpik and Niskanen are the most likely departure candidates. That's about 5M+

Sutter, Juice, Vitale... all these guys are likely to be re-signed. Sutter because there isn't a good alternative immediately available, Juice because he's playing really well / showing a lot of versatility in all situations, Vitale because he's virtuous. One of Kobasew and D'Ags is also likely to get a cheap deal signed IMO.

If you think we're going into June with all those slots un-accounted for, you're kidding yourself. Also, all of those guys I mention, are still relatively cheap. The odds of a big raise for any, are slim. For the purposes of these kinds of discussions, I think it's much wiser to assume a max of 6M freed up space, then add the cap increase you think is likely (I think it will be about 3-4M).

nobody thinks that. But that framework is currently the only guarantee we have. Those spots all need to be signed for next year at this stage.
 

alcanalz

whys and wherefores
Nov 3, 2009
6,900
0
Just to let everyone know, Martin is UFA the following season and his 5.0 is even harder to keep. This opens a spot for a puck mover. Martin is much much harder to keep. The fact he was asked if he wanted to leave tells me he's more likely not to be tendered an offer. But that's just me reading a little further out and it gives the youngsters a bit more time.

He was asked if he wanted to leave because he had an incredibly forgettable year. I can't imagine him not being re-signed.
 

IcedCapp

Registered User
Aug 7, 2009
35,854
11,225
Iced you removed the entire 3rd line and 2/3 of the 4th line... :laugh:

That's what I'm saying... those slots will not all be empty by summer. We're going to re-sign some of those guys before it gets to that point. Just a question of which ones. I think Orpik and Niskanen are the most likely departure candidates. That's about 5M+

Sutter, Juice, Vitale... all these guys are likely to be re-signed. Sutter because there isn't a good alternative immediately available, Juice because he's playing really well / showing a lot of versatility in all situations, Vitale because he's virtuous. One of Kobasew and D'Ags is also likely to get a cheap deal signed IMO.

If you think we're going into June with all those slots un-accounted for, you're kidding yourself. Also, all of those guys I mention, are still relatively cheap. The odds of a big raise for any, are slim. For the purposes of these kinds of discussions, I think it's much wiser to assume a max of 6M freed up space, then add the cap increase you think is likely (I think it will be about 3-4M).

???

I don't think that. I can't predict the future. I'm saying you can't waste $3-4MM on Orpik if you hope to fix the bottom-6. I'm not going to fill in the bottom-6 because I have no clue what they are going to do with it.

But i'm not wrong. If the cap goes up to $70MM, the Penguins have $15MM to fill out their roster. If they re-sign someone, they have less. Not sure what's wrong about that.
 

mpp9

Registered User
Dec 5, 2010
32,613
5,067
Ruopp should be in this discussion as well. He is like Bort in terms of not being a sexy prospect that is always overlooked, but he is going to be a monster when he fills out (6'3 220 maybe), and he hits to injure.

Best of all he can skate and isn't offensively Pejorative Slured.

I'm hoping Ruopp replaces Engelland next year.

As for Brooks re-signing. It'd require one of Despres or Jokinen to not be re-signed. And for us to fill out the forward lineup on the cheap. It's doable, but limits our ability to upgrade the top 6 forward group moving forward.
 

Darth Vitale

Dark Matter
Aug 21, 2003
28,172
114
Darkness
Iced: OK. I thought you were saying we should assume we'll have 15M to play with next spring or something like that. Knowing this team's management style, there's a good chance most of those guys will be re-signed in the next few months. Also I don't think it's a given the cap will go back to 70M. Symmetry is nice and all but based on revenues and old trends I think an increase of 3-4M is a better assumption than 6M.
 

Pens1566

Registered User
Aug 2, 2005
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WV
I'd be willing to bet that Orpik doesn't finish this season in a pens uniform.
 

penguins2946*

Guest
I'm not expecting for Orpik to re-sign for the same reason that Gonchar didn't re-sign and why Martin won't re-sign, they want 1 more big paycheck. They won't want to take a pay cut for their last contract. Orpik already took 1 pay cut to stay, I don't think he'd even consider another. With that being said, the lines look something like:

Kunitz-Crosby-Bennett
XXXX-Malkin-Neal
Jeffery-Sutter-Dupuis
Payerl-Vitale-Adams
XXXX-XXXX

Letang-Scuderi
Despres-Martin
Maatta-Bortuzzo
Dumoulin

Fleury-XXXX

Assuming 1.5 for Despres, 3 for Sutter and .75 for Jeffery and Vitale, that's $62 million for 11 F, 7 D and a G. We can get a 13th and 14th for 1.25 million, and a backup for 1 million. That's $64.2 million, with only Malkin's LW vacant *cough*KULEMIN*cough*.
 

Darth Vitale

Dark Matter
Aug 21, 2003
28,172
114
Darkness
I'd be willing to bet that Orpik doesn't finish this season in a pens uniform.

That's a trickier proposition. If the Pens know they can't afford him based on whatever his agent is asking, far better to keep him for one more playoff run than to lose him ahead of time, unless someone makes you a really substantial offer. He showed last playoff that he can still turn it on when he needs to.

So what's more valuable, assets that will make your team stronger and more balanced in the next 2-3 years but not help much this playoff year... or being tougher this year and maybe giving your team a better shot to win it this year? You can argue it either way and Shero really hasn't been in this position before at the deadline (where we're receiving offers instead of making them for impact players), so it's anyone's guess.
 

Dipsy Doodle

Rent A Barn
May 28, 2006
76,529
21,072
Is it? Shelly Anderson asked him if he was talking extension a few weeks ago and he made some snide remark in response.

It is. I wouldn't take the fact that they haven't entered negotiations yet as any sort of sign. We've let several other tenured veterans go to the brink of UFA before getting serious.

Orpik sux, Dupuis sux, Fleury sux, Glass sux, Adams sux, Kennedy sux, Martin sux, etc.

Wasn't my intent for this thread. ;)

No way he gets an extension. If we wouldn't have have been able to sign Scuds this summer then maybe, but with all these youngsters no chance. And we need the cap space and it just makes too much sense

That's never been a determining factor for us before. We had a ton of young NHL ready defensemen last year too. Waiver-eligible ones, no less.

Let's assume Despres makes the team. If I'm not mistaken, that means the first of Dumoulin, Harrington, Maatta, or Pouliot to be waiver-eligible will be Dumoulin, and that won't be until 2015. By that time, Martin and Bortuzzo's contracts will both be up.

Also, let's not forget that the organization always refers to prospects as "assets". There are 2 trade deadlines between now and 2015, and other parts of the roster will probably need to be shored up.

I agree it's probably inevitable. This organization has a wierd fascination with keeping the same group around even when some of those guys aren't any good. Unknown to much of the hockey world, Orpik has been on a steep decline for years. Ideally Shero could take advantage of that and get something back, even if it's just a mid-round pick or a reclamation project. You also get the added benefit of addition by subtraction - Bortuzzo or Niskanen have to be considered upgrades.

In other words, I expect a 4 year deal at $4.75m per.

We're like Detroit in that respect, for better and worse. Babcock's gone on record as saying "any tie between a young guy and a vet goes to the vet", but considering how the Wings have chosen to play Cleary over Nyquist and Tatar, we can safely interpret that to mean "any young guy has to so clearly outplay a vet that it overcomes the vet's established trust, work ethic, and history of success, and any hiccups the young guy will encounter over the course of a full season".

Detroit and Pittsburgh put a huge premium on knowing a player, so you pretty much have to pry tenured vets from their cold, dead hands. The only time either team balks at re-signing tenured, key vets is when they're 35+ or lined up for a big raise. Think about it. The only guy Shero's ever given up who didn't fit that description was Whitney, and he fell off a cliff after his injuries.

It makes sense for us to start putting our young defensemen into bigger roles. But I can't see us doing it, looking at our history.
 

chethejet

Registered User
Feb 4, 2012
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Harrington replaces Orpik. If you think Matta can't do what martin does, fine, but me I think he will be a stud and Martin is still a trade asset.
 

Ogrezilla

Nerf Herder
Jul 5, 2009
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Pittsburgh
Orpik is exactly the kind of guy playoff teams pick up at the deadline, not the kind they sell off. If he was getting traded, it would have been in the off-season.
 

Darth Vitale

Dark Matter
Aug 21, 2003
28,172
114
Darkness
Harrington replaces Orpik. If you think Matta can't do what martin does, fine, but me I think he will be a stud and Martin is still a trade asset.

I haven't heard anyone suggest that Harrington can play an Orpik-like game in the physical sense. I have often heard though, that he can be "the next Scuderi".
 

Ogrezilla

Nerf Herder
Jul 5, 2009
75,534
22,049
Pittsburgh
Harrington replaces Orpik. If you think Matta can't do what martin does, fine, but me I think he will be a stud and Martin is still a trade asset.

some day maybe. That day isn't today. And it likely isn't next year either. Martin plays 25 minutes a night against the best opponents while being a huge asset to our transition game and pitching in with very respectable points. He's a top pairing quality defender.
 

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