Orpik's Inevitable Re-sign (Now with 100% Less Nathan Horton)

[JTG]

So is Crosby breaking down?
Is Malkin breaking down?
Are Letang and Neal breaking down this year?

If Orpik hadn't stepped it up big time in the playoffs last year, I'd be all for getting rid of him.

Remember we dropped Scud and Gill and realized our mistake years later what value they brought. Gill pretty much single handedly clutched and grabbed his way into beating us in the playoffs, and Scud has another cup to talk about.

You would think replacing Scud would have been easy but it wasn't.

Orpik is the same IMO.



If numbers dictate, then that is a valid reason.

The air of the thread so far has been "he sucks, we don't need him" vs "Orpik has priced himself out of Pittsburgh".

You just compared a 33 year old to a bunch of guys who the oldest is 27. Of course they aren't breaking down. Orpik is having these small injuries occuring in his groin, hips, abdomen. That's a sign.

 

[AquaticBirdman]

THis organization has too many quality young d-men in the system to need to make any idiotic, knee-jerk reactionary signings of aging vets that aren't as good as they used to be. Maata, Borts, Despres, Pouliot, Dumolin....all quality young blue liners that will all round out our defense within the next 2-3 seasons. If you wanna keep Orpik around then it should absolutely not be for more than 2 years at 3 million per season MAX. Of course we all know he's liable to get MUCH more than that on the open market based on reputation alone.

 

[Ogrezilla]

I still think Despres needs to be playing this year. He is the guy that could be playing top 4 minutes as early as this year and we really need someone who we know can do that to replace Orpik. When Letang comes back and Maatta goes down, I really don't want Niskanen playing over Despres. It hurts us long term for maybe a tiny short term advantage.

 

[Ogrezilla]

I haven't heard anyone suggest that Harrington can play an Orpik-like game in the physical sense. I have often heard though, that he can be "the next Scuderi".

you don't need someone who blows people up like Orpik does. Outside of his huge hits, Orpik is not overly physical. Bortuzzo is already better than him in the crease.

 

[Darth Vitale]

I'll say one thing; if we did trade Orpik for a big deadline package, you can be sure the other team is not making the playoffs, so that narrows the list considerably (for that debate). I believe he has a movement clause where he picks 8 teams he won't go to, so throw out: Florida, Phoenix, Calgary, Edmonton, maybe Nashville... anywhere that either is a perennial cellar dweller or which has a situation that will reduce his minutes heavily.

He'll want money and playing time so that means a team that is not in full rebuild mode, will pay a big contract, but is still not quite good enough to make the playoffs... and would pay us a big price. A tall order with conflicting priorities to say the least. Any team that thinks Orpik might make the difference getting into the playoffs, isn't going to trade us good players most likely. Any team that will pay the big bank and give him first pairing minutes, probably IS rebuilding...

I think the most likely scenario is, we keep him for one more run and let him walk.

 

[Ogrezilla]

I'll say one thing; if we did trade Orpik for a big deadline package, you can be sure the other team is not making the playoffs, so that narrows the list considerably (for that debate). I think the most likely scenario is, we keep him for one more run and let him walk.

and if you aren't a playoff team, you wouldn't be making a big deadline deal for a UFA d-man.

 

[Ugene Magic]

He was asked if he wanted to leave because he had an incredibly forgettable year. I can't imagine him not being re-signed.

Due to injuries. Hence backing off, not going full tilt.

The knowing the reasons why are just as telling when trying to make sense of a question that the media asks. Dig deeper into the storyline and not just trust what's being put in front of you.

 

[IcedCapp]

and if you aren't a playoff team, you wouldn't be making a big deadline deal for a UFA d-man.

I could *maybe* see the Oilers, but only because I think they are crazy (in a bad way) and Orpik is exactly what they need. But yes, you're right. He's not getting traded.

 

[Ogrezilla]

no but seriously, he's our 4th best d-man, we have a lot of guys who need positions to play and he is going to want paid more than we should be giving to a guy in that situation. I love Brooks Orpik. But letting him go will be the right decision, and I am confident its the decision Shero will make.

 

[Ogrezilla]

I could *maybe* see the Oilers, but only because I think they are crazy (in a bad way) and Orpik is exactly what they need. But yes, you're right. He's not getting traded.

they are exactly who I expect to overpay him next summer.

 

[AquaticBirdman]

So is Crosby breaking down?
Is Malkin breaking down?
Are Letang and Neal breaking down this year?

If Orpik hadn't stepped it up big time in the playoffs last year, I'd be all for getting rid of him.

Remember we dropped Scud and Gill and realized our mistake years later what value they brought. Gill pretty much single handedly clutched and grabbed his way into beating us in the playoffs, and Scud has another cup to talk about.

You would think replacing Scud would have been easy but it wasn't.

Orpik is the same IMO.



If numbers dictate, then that is a valid reason.

The air of the thread so far has been "he sucks, we don't need him" vs "Orpik has priced himself out of Pittsburgh".

Orpik and Scuds are absolutely NOT the same situation in terms of what either of them bring to the fold. We suffered big time with the loss of Scuderi because we were never able to replace him with a d-man with the same defensive acumen that he brought to the table. I'm talking about a pure defensive blue liner that is strong positionally, exceptional at getting into passing and shooting lanes and can effectively man-mark/shadow any elite forward in the league. Very few d-men in this league defend quite as well against a cycle as Scuds.

Orpik is an entirely different animal altogether. His strengths always hinged more on his physical attributes (strength and skating) rather than him being able to play an actual SMART game. As he's gotten older (and picked up some injuries along the way) you can tell that his effeciveness has decreased as a result. The value in Orpik's game is in his ability to lay out the body. Once his strength decreases with age, so does his value, plain and simple. Considering how well Borts' development is coming along, Orpik now becomes all the more expendable.

 

[Shockmaster]

I'll say one thing; if we did trade Orpik for a big deadline package, you can be sure the other team is not making the playoffs, so that narrows the list considerably (for that debate). I think the most likely scenario is, we keep him for one more run and let him walk.

If Orpik was going to be traded it would have happened over the summer. It didn't, so he'll be with the Penguins for the rest of the season. Once his contract runs out though, it's time to move on. With the new Malkin and Letang contracts kicking in and the fact that Shero will need to fill in the bottom 6 forward group again, signing Orpik would really hamper the Penguins depth in other areas. The last thing the Penguins need to do right now is take a page out of the Stiller book and sign an older player to a bad contract.

 

[AquaticBirdman]

they are exactly who I expect to overpay him next summer.

Or even Tampa.

 

[AquaticBirdman]

you don't need someone who blows people up like Orpik does. Outside of his huge hits, Orpik is not overly physical. Bortuzzo is already better than him in the crease.

Orpik is one of the dummest d-men in the league when defending in/around the crease. How many of his idiotic penalties does he often take when trying to defend within 10 feet of the goal?

 

[Darth Vitale]

Thinking on it more, the only teams I can think of this year, who might fit all of those criteria:

Money to spend next summer
Almost good enough to make the playoffs but not quite
Plenty of good young assets to make a trade with
Not a team Orpik will reject out of hand (like FLA or CGY)

... are Colorado, maybe Winnipeg, Dallas, or TB.

 

[Crafton]

i think this thread is lame.

the premise of the thread has been set up such that well-worn issues will again be raised and beaten into the ground: the penguins are infatuated with declining veterans, the penguins have an internalized vendetta against their young players, the penguins are mired in the haze of a country club mentality, Shero's PMD-paradigm is as flawed and cumbersome as the Brezhnev Doctrine. the off-season is a ways away and frankly i'm tired of talking about these issues - are we really going to gain any more insight as to whether these assertions ring true at this juncture? i don't think so - it's very, very unlikely that Orpik will be rendered a rental and there have been no ongoing negotiations, i think this is a topic that should be revisited later.

 

[Ugene Magic]

you don't need someone who blows people up like Orpik does. Outside of his huge hits, Orpik is not overly physical. Bortuzzo is already better than him in the crease.

The only fear Bortuzzo brings is, he'll beat you up.

That right there would tell me he replaces, Engelland, not, Orpik. Orpik brings fear that if a player comes down with his head down they will be punished, cleanly. Bortuzzo brings none of that, or has he shown it, and it does get opposing players attention. That is worth a lot that the other team can't just come down without due diligence against it.

Pens lose that and become a softer team even more. Board/net work is not board/net and open ice work. Healthy Orpik in any of those areas is much more than Bortuzzo's limited card between the whistles. Fighting is reserved mostly for after the whistle.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Thinking on it more, the only teams I can think of this year, who might fit all of those criteria:

Money to spend next summer
Almost good enough to make the playoffs but not quite
Plenty of good young assets to make a trade with
Not a team Orpik will reject out of hand (like FLA or CGY)

... are Colorado, maybe Winnipeg, Dallas, or TB.

but why would they give up big assets for him when he'll be a UFA 2 months later? And if they won't give up big assets, why would we trade him?

 

[AquaticBirdman]

but why would they give up big assets for him when he'll be a UFA 2 months later? And if they won't give up big assets, why would we trade him?

He's not getting traded before the off-season. Either we re-sign him to a short term deal (3 years max) and for a modest amount of money, or we trade his rights for a pick/prospect.

 

[Big McLargehuge]

i think this thread is lame.

the premise of the thread has been set up such that well-worn issues will again be raised and beaten into the ground: the penguins are infatuated with declining veterans, the penguins have an internalized vendetta against their young players, the penguins are mired in the haze of a country club mentality, Shero's PMD-paradigm is as flawed and cumbersome as the Brezhnev Doctrine. the off-season is a ways away and frankly i'm tired of talking about these issues - are we really going to gain any more insight as to whether these assertions ring true at this juncture? i don't think so - it's very, very unlikely that Orpik will be rendered a rental and there have been no ongoing negotiations, i think this is a topic that should be revisited later.

What he said.

 

[Darth Vitale]

and if you aren't a playoff team, you wouldn't be making a big deadline deal for a UFA d-man.

Talking about teams that think by trading for Orpik, they will make the playoffs and have someone that fills a need they don't have, and who have several solid young players and prospects that might be attractive to the Penguins, not doormat teams that know they won't make it and that Orpik won't stay.

And there's nothing to stop a sign-and-trade either, if the deal was attractive enough to both parties and Orpik liked the team he's going to.

Again I'm not advocating for it nor suggesting it will happen. I'm suggesting the opposite; that there's a large number of conditions that would have to be satisfied (and therefore a small chance).

If Orpik was going to be traded it would have happened over the summer. It didn't, so he'll be with the Penguins for the rest of the season.

See my comments above... it's not a black and white issue. Trading him last summer would've been the most expected route but these things are never a lock when trying to predict.

 

[Ogrezilla]

The only fear Bortuzzo brings is, he'll beat you up.

That right there would tell me he replaces, Engelland, not, Orpik. Orpik brings fear that if a player comes down with his head down they will be punished, cleanly. Bortuzzo brings none of that, or has he shown it, and it does get opposing players attention. That is worth a lot that the other team can't just come down without due diligence against it.

Pens lose that and become a softer team even more. Board/net work is not board/net and open ice work. Healthy Orpik in any of those areas is much more than Bortuzzo's limited card between the whistles. Fighting is reserved mostly for after the whistle.

I don't give a damn about fighting. Bortuzzo is stronger than Orpik and is better at clearing players out of the crease to allow Fleury to see. He is stronger than Orpik when battling for a puck along the boards. He's also better with the puck than Orpik. His only downside is that he doesn't give those big open ice hits as you said. On the flip side of that, he doesn't take himself out of position looking for those big open ice hits.

 

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Times change, and so do opinions.

They have Geno's and Letangs figures already figured in at capgeek showing almost 10.0 in space, and added to that would be what the cap goes up for the Pens before signing anyone else with projections is near 15.480.

Prove to me "now" they can't sign some bottom six forwards, resign Orpik + a #7, and a backup goalie?

Orpik and sutter 3.750 + 3.5 = 7.250

You need 5 more bottom six, 1 more D-man(bottom pairing 6/7, and one backup goailie. You have actually 8.230833 to use.


Plausible?


I'd say.

Jeffrey- not getting a huge raise
Kobasew- Probably a raise to 1.5
Vitale- yep not a huge raise
++? others within? Entry level contracts

= A little over 4.0

one of: Despres, Dumoulin, or Maatta depending on who's still here and on the roster already.

.831667 to 1.5

Backup goaltender: They're not spending 2.0 or more on a back up again.

1.0

I'm seeing that be in the 7.0 range with a healthy buffer.


KCD
BMJ
___,Sutter,___
__, __, Adams
13th forward

S,L
O,M
B,D
Dumoulin, Maatta,

Nothing has changed in the 2+ months since we discussed this. I already added in the figures manually when I posted the numbers.

I'll redo it again using the current numbers:

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Chris Kunitz ($3.850m) / Evgeni Malkin ($9.500m) / James Neal ($5.000m)
Beau Bennett ($0.900m) / Sidney Crosby ($8.700m) / Pascal Dupuis ($3.750m)
Chuck Kobasew ($1.500m) / Brandon Sutter ($3.500m) / FA ($1.800m)
Craig Adams ($0.700m) / Joe Vitale ($0.850m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Kris Letang ($7.250m) / Paul Martin ($5.000m)
Rob Scuderi ($3.375m) / Olli Maatta ($0.894m)
Robert Bortuzzo ($0.600m) / Brooks Orpik ($4.000m)
Simon Despres ($1.800m) /
GOALTENDERS
Marc-Andre Fleury ($5.000m)
Backup ($1.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $70,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $68,969,167; BONUSES: $0
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): $1,030,833

This assumes Despres gets a modest raise as well as Sutter. So if they have big years, these numbers only get worse.

I signed Kobasew for a modest 1.5m like you did. Another third liner for a modest 1.8m.

Backup goalie for 1m.

Orpik got 4m which is more than reasonable.

You still need a fourth liner and your 13th fwd, plus about a 1 - 1.5m cushion.

Kind of hard to do with just about 1m in cap space.

As I said, he can be signed if they cut corners and have little room to make trades, which I don't agree with, obviously.

 

[Darth Vitale]

I don't give a damn about fighting. Bortuzzo is stronger than Orpik and is better at clearing players out of the crease to allow Fleury to see. He is stronger than Orpik when battling for a puck along the boards. He's also better with the puck than Orpik. His only downside is that he doesn't give those big open ice hits as you said. On the flip side of that, he doesn't take himself out of position looking for those big open ice hits.

I agree with all of this, although I don't know that he's "weight room stronger" yet, and there was a time when Orpik could be a real ******* to deal with around the net.

But Orpik is likely to be replaced by Bortuzzo for these reasons.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Nothing has changed in the 2+ months since we discussed this. I already added in the figures manually when I posted the numbers.

I'll redo it again using the current numbers:

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Chris Kunitz ($3.850m) / Evgeni Malkin ($9.500m) / James Neal ($5.000m)
Beau Bennett ($0.900m) / Sidney Crosby ($8.700m) / Pascal Dupuis ($3.750m)
Chuck Kobasew ($1.500m) / Brandon Sutter ($3.500m) / FA ($1.800m)
Craig Adams ($0.700m) / Joe Vitale ($0.850m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Kris Letang ($7.250m) / Paul Martin ($5.000m)
Rob Scuderi ($3.375m) / Olli Maatta ($0.894m)
Robert Bortuzzo ($0.600m) / Brooks Orpik ($4.000m)
Simon Despres ($1.800m) /
GOALTENDERS
Marc-Andre Fleury ($5.000m)
Backup ($1.000m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $70,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $68,969,167; BONUSES: $0
CAP SPACE (20-man roster): $1,030,833

This assumes Despres gets a modest raise as well as Sutter. So if they have big years, these numbers only get worse.

I signed Kobasew for a modest 1.5m like you did. Another third liner for a modest 1.8m.

Backup goalie for 1m.

Orpik got 4m which is more than reasonable.

You still need a fourth liner and your 13th fwd, plus about a 1 - 1.5m cushion.

Kind of hard to do with just about 1m in cap space.

As I said, he can be signed if they cut corners and have little room to make trades, which I don't agree with, obviously.

So we're in agreement here?


Plausible.