#OReillyWatch - Summer of 2014 - Part I

[Avs_19]

Vegas might be kinda awkward if there are hurt feelings on both sides.

 

[ABasin]

5.5 is not elite money. Thats not even below Elite money. Thats what the role playing top 6 forwards should get.

How many teams have 6 forwards making $5.5M or more?

 

[tigervixxxen]

Because when has that ever happened? Even if 8, which is like Sidney Crosby type of money, was the QO, even ROR would know that they would have no intention of actually qualifying him. 6.5 however, is what Patrice Bergeron makes, and I have no problem believing that ROR would think enough of his ability to put him on that level, and believing that Calgary thinking he is at that level as well.

Ok maybe it's unrealistic but my point is that it was a 10 million dollar contract broken into two parts. However you want to break it down was still a AAV of 5. O'Reilly didn't think he was worth just 3.5 a year ago, did he?

 

[Freudian]

Ok maybe it's unrealistic but my point is that it was a 10 million dollar contract broken into two parts. However you want to break it down was still a AAV of 5. O'Reilly didn't think he was worth just 3.5 a year ago, did he?

It was only a 29 game season for him and he got a big signing bonus, so he made out like a bandit both years.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

Duchene is not the first or last player to take a bridge deal. Players that perform highly for just one year of their ELCs will almost always get bridge deals, or be encouraged to do so. It is very common among GMs to push for bridge deals.

Hilarious how you don't understand the difference between being lowballed and encouraged to take a very good bridge deal.

Well if its common then I guess everyone must do it. LOL.

I understand the difference quite well. I just dont care about that excuse to lowball someone. You lowball them you lowball them. There is no good reason.

And that bridge deal wasnt good. Paying a legit top6 forward only 3.5 mil just because he is young is BS. 3.5 is what you pay your typical 3rd liners, not one of the best players on the team. But for a couple years the avs wanted a guy they knew would be one of the top players (production wise and TOI wise) at a great price. There is absolutely no way management went into that negotiation thinking RoR would play bottom 6 minutes or have bottom 6 production. The Avs were just being cheap with a player they thought they could control and squeeze a couple more years of mediocre pay out of him because he was a RFA. Just because its common practice to pull this crap with these guys does not mean its right to do so. Pay the players what the are worth, restricted or unrestricted.

 

[Iracundia]

It's highly unlikely that any team would offer sheet him for one year. Teams don't do it to screw with other teams. They do it to get a player.

I don't necessarily agree with this. Back in Gillis's first year he threatened to offer sheet RFA Steve Bernier of Buffalo. A trade was later worked out between the two clubs. Gilles then went after Backes with a OS and the Blues then retaliated with a OS on Bernier. IMO the Blues had no interest in Bernier but wanted to give a little payback to the Canucks.

 

[henchman21]

Well if its common then I guess everyone must do it. LOL.

I understand the difference quite well. I just dont care about that excuse to lowball someone. You lowball them you lowball them. There is no good reason.

And that bridge deal wasnt good. Paying a legit top6 forward only 3.5 mil just because he is young is BS. 3.5 is what you pay your typical 3rd liners, not one of the best players on the team. But for a couple years the avs wanted a guy they knew would be one of the top players (production wise and TOI wise) at a great price. There is absolutely no way management went into that negotiation thinking RoR would play bottom 6 minutes or have bottom 6 production. The Avs were just being cheap with a player they thought they could control and squeeze a couple more years of mediocre pay out of him because he was a RFA. Just because its common practice to pull this crap with these guys does not mean its right to do so. Pay the players what the are worth, restricted or unrestricted.

I guess Couture, Duchene, Stepan, Subban, Palat, Johnson, etc are all 3rd liners/bottom pairing.

 

[ColoradoSportsFan]

It's highly unlikely that any team would offer sheet him for one year. Teams don't do it to screw with other teams. They do it to get a player.

I dunno, I'm pretty sure a big reason Wilson in SJ gave that big offer sheet to Niemi was to screw Chicago when they were having issues with the offers to Towes and Kane after their first Cup.

 

[AvsWraith]

Ok maybe it's unrealistic but my point is that it was a 10 million dollar contract broken into two parts. However you want to break it down was still a AAV of 5. O'Reilly didn't think he was worth just 3.5 a year ago, did he?

He definitely made it clear that he did not think he was worth only 3.5.

The 6.5 is still there though, that's the current QO. After the year ROR just had, can you seriously not believe that he, and his agency, would stick to that number? Why would Sakic/Roy go the arbitration route if they didn't already know that 6.5 or more was the position O'Reilly/Newport was taking? To me, the arbitration seems more like a reaction than a precaution. That may be just speculation on my part, but given the history, I think it is a logical assumption. To me, the whole bad blood seems like it is starting again. Sakic/Roy gave Duchene, Landy, and Varly very good fair market deals. They showed them that they were part of the core and that they wanted them there to build around. I would find it hard to believe they wouldn't go the same route with ROR. However, I don't think Newport handles things that way.

 

[ColoradoSportsFan]

Well if its common then I guess everyone must do it. LOL.

I understand the difference quite well. I just dont care about that excuse to lowball someone. You lowball them you lowball them. There is no good reason.

And that bridge deal wasnt good. Paying a legit top6 forward only 3.5 mil just because he is young is BS. 3.5 is what you pay your typical 3rd liners, not one of the best players on the team. But for a couple years the avs wanted a guy they knew would be one of the top players (production wise and TOI wise) at a great price. There is absolutely no way management went into that negotiation thinking RoR would play bottom 6 minutes or have bottom 6 production. The Avs were just being cheap with a player they thought they could control and squeeze a couple more years of mediocre pay out of him because he was a RFA. Just because its common practice to pull this crap with these guys does not mean its right to do so. Pay the players what the are worth, restricted or unrestricted.

3.5 was not lowballing him when he was coming off 1 truly great season. Especially when you factor (natch) in that having Landeskog on his wing helped tremendously. And he was the 3rd line center, only reason he played in the top 6 so much was Duchene was hurt a lot.

 

[Freudian]

I dunno, I'm pretty sure a big reason Wilson in SJ gave that big offer sheet to Niemi was to screw Chicago when they were having issues with the offers to Towes and Kane after their first Cup.

It was a multi-year offer sheet to Hjalmarsson and Sharks later signed Niemi. It was an offer sheet designed to get a very good player and since the other team was up against the cap a goalie shook loose.

That's a far cry from teams basically offering O'Reilly two one year offer sheets to help him get to free agency. It hasn't happened before and won't happen now. If there is an offer sheet here, it will be a big one for multiple years.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

How many teams have 6 forwards making $5.5M or more?

How many teams have a full top6 of legit top6 players? And how many teams are making out like bandits by having these top players on bridge contracts?

I also meant to say two-way top6 forwards. Guys like PaP should not get that much unless they are for sure going to give close to a point per game.

I guess Couture, Duchene, Stepan, Subban, Palat, Johnson, etc are all 3rd liners/bottom pairing.

All guys who are playing big time roles and are just as good or better than guys making millions of dollars more than them. These guys are extremely underpaid for how good they are and the roles they will continue to play.

Man, you really dont get the point do you?

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

Wow, never looked at it like that. 3.5 million for 29 games works out to ~$120,700 a game, or the equivalent of a ~9.9 million dollar salary for a full season.

Did other players get paid based on a short season?

3.5 was not lowballing him when he was coming off 1 truly great season. Especially when you factor (natch) in that having Landeskog on his wing helped tremendously. And he was the 3rd line center, only reason he played in the top 6 so much was Duchene was hurt a lot.

It doesnt matter where he started the season at. You seriously believe management went into that off season thinking he would play a bottom 6 role again?

 

[Avs71]

Did other players get paid based on a short season?



It doesnt matter where he started the season at. You seriously believe management went into that off season thinking he would play a bottom 6 role again?

Oh right. It was pro-rated. I was thinking Calgary actually paid him 3.5 million, but that obviously wasn't the case as it would have been just like every other contract and prorated to the 48 game season. I guess he still would have done well if he got the equivalent of a 48 game salary for only 29 games.

Which if that was the case, then I think he would have been paid around the equivalent of a ~5.8 million dollar salary for an 82 game season.

(48/82 games)*3,500,000=2,048,780
2,048,780/29 games he actually showed up for= 70,650
70,650*82= ~5.8

 

[The Mars Volchenkov]

Vegas might be kinda awkward if there are hurt feelings on both sides.

If Roy and O'Reilly both win, you know there's going to be a picture of them together with their trophies, likely with MacKinnon too.

 

[ColoradoSportsFan]

It doesnt matter where he started the season at. You seriously believe management went into that off season thinking he would play a bottom 6 role again?

Yes, 3rd line center behind Stastny and Duchene. Dunno if Lando would have stayed with him though. He probably gets moved up with one of the others.

 

[Bender]

Well if its common then I guess everyone must do it. LOL.

I understand the difference quite well. I just dont care about that excuse to lowball someone. You lowball them you lowball them. There is no good reason.

And that bridge deal wasnt good. Paying a legit top6 forward only 3.5 mil just because he is young is BS. 3.5 is what you pay your typical 3rd liners, not one of the best players on the team. But for a couple years the avs wanted a guy they knew would be one of the top players (production wise and TOI wise) at a great price. There is absolutely no way management went into that negotiation thinking RoR would play bottom 6 minutes or have bottom 6 production. The Avs were just being cheap with a player they thought they could control and squeeze a couple more years of mediocre pay out of him because he was a RFA. Just because its common practice to pull this crap with these guys does not mean its right to do so. Pay the players what the are worth, restricted or unrestricted.

Are you being serious right now? PK Subban just finished his bridge deal, which was MUCH LOWER than what O'Reilly was offered at the time ($2.85M vs $3.5M) and in this instance, it's been great for PK. He was seeking $5M per year at the time (for 5 years) and now instead of being locked into that phenomenal contract, the Habs are going to end up paying MUCH more for his services.

If you're paying $3.5M for your 'typical 3rd liner', you're going to be in cap hell much sooner rather than later.

For fun, I've selected 5 random NHL teams, here are the results:

San Jose - T.Kennedy($2.35M)+R.Torres($2M)+Wingels($2.5M)* let's say he signs for that much = $2.28M AVG

Minnesota - Brodziak($2.83M)+cooke($2.5M)+Nieddereiter($3.5M)* let's say he signs for that much = $2.94M AVG

Pittsburgh - Jokinen($3M)+Stempniak($2.5M)+Goc($1.7M) = $2.4M AVG

Chicago - Versteeg ($2.2M)+Shaw($2M)+Kruger($1.325M) = $1.84M AVG

Sure, there are players on some NHL teams that end up on the 3rd line that earn $3.5M and sometimes more but in a almost every case, those guys weren't signed to play a 3rd line role for that kind of money. They defaulted to that role due to depth or performance.

 

[henchman21]

How many teams have a full top6 of legit top6 players? And how many teams are making out like bandits by having these top players on bridge contracts?

I also meant to say two-way top6 forwards. Guys like PaP should not get that much unless they are for sure going to give close to a point per game.



All guys who are playing big time roles and are just as good or better than guys making millions of dollars more than them. These guys are extremely underpaid for how good they are and the roles they will continue to play.

Man, you really dont get the point do you?

You really aren't. Bridge deals are very common and happen to better players than ROR for less money. The only one on that list that would have gotten the same bridge deal was Duchene.... The rest were worse. ROR would have been on one of the very best bridge deals in the NHL. That is not low balling.

 

[tigervixxxen]

He definitely made it clear that he did not think he was worth only 3.5.

The 6.5 is still there though, that's the current QO. After the year ROR just had, can you seriously not believe that he, and his agency, would stick to that number? Why would Sakic/Roy go the arbitration route if they didn't already know that 6.5 or more was the position O'Reilly/Newport was taking? To me, the arbitration seems more like a reaction than a precaution. That may be just speculation on my part, but given the history, I think it is a logical assumption. To me, the whole bad blood seems like it is starting again. Sakic/Roy gave Duchene, Landy, and Varly very good fair market deals. They showed them that they were part of the core and that they wanted them there to build around. I would find it hard to believe they wouldn't go the same route with ROR. However, I don't think Newport handles things that way.

They had a deadline. They HAD to file on the 15th. How would they really know how it's going? Does anyone give their real offer that early in the process. Boulding reported that they hadn't even started negotiating like a week ago. And regardless why wouldn't the Avs take steps to protect themselves this far out? O'Reilly could take the 6.5 QO and run. So they are just supposed to say "these folks won't be any trouble at all" given the history. And many cases don't even go to arbitration, I don't think any did last year. It's an absolute last resort. It's not the public war that Dater claims it is. I'd be shocked if Newport doesn't file arbitration for Subban. That's the way it is, using tactics to your advantage.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

Was anyone else willing to go to Russia because they did not want a bridge contract?

They should be. For some reason it just seems expected of everyone to take a bridge. More players should be standing up against this bridge crap. Its just a way for the NHL teams to squeeze a couple extra years of mediocre pay out of players they know should be getting millions of dollars more right away.

If a team is truly unsure of how the future will look (not the case in a lot of situations) and is afraid to spend the money at the time then that should be the teams problem, not the players. The player should have a right to find a team willing to take a chance on him. This game of predicting who will pan out and who wont should be a huge part of running a team. This is an area that would really separate the intelligent front offices front the idiots. But with this bridge contract, RFA culture that has been create it takes that aspect away until a player has really had time to develop and its a lot easier to see where their ceiling is at and how likely they are to reach said ceiling.

 

[JLo217]

This is going to be a fun couple of weeks. I'm on the trade him wagon though. Last time ROR did a good job publicly of getting everyone on his side of it. Which IMHO even then looked to be both at fault. This time it shows that he's been the one making it tough to get anything done. Seems most seem to think he's either greedy or making negotiations harder then they should be.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

You really aren't. Bridge deals are very common and happen to better players than ROR for less money. The only one on that list that would have gotten the same bridge deal was Duchene.... The rest were worse. ROR would have been on one of the very best bridge deals in the NHL. That is not low balling.

I really arnt what? That doesnt even make sense.

And you still are failing to get what i am saying. These other players are being completely underpaid. The managements knew they would be good, but they still forced a bridge deal on them because, well, thats common practice and the players are just expected to take it. You can compare RoRs bridge offer to as many bridge offers as you want. The more top players you mention with bridge offers, the more you further my point. just because its common practice does not make it any less of a lowball offer. These guys are not getting paid what they are worth. Not even close.

 

[RockLobster]

You really aren't. Bridge deals are very common and happen to better players than ROR for less money. The only one on that list that would have gotten the same bridge deal was Duchene.... The rest were worse. ROR would have been on one of the very best bridge deals in the NHL. That is not low balling.

While I agree that the Bridge Deal offered to him wasn't a "lowball offer" the 5 year one was most definitely a "lowball offer". It became clear that O'Reilly didn't want a Bridge Deal, he wanted the longer term deal and with that a bump in pay.

What's really sad is that the rumors were he was looking for around $5M AAV on a longer term deal, that is the number that kept getting reported. Imagine if we had done that, we would have bought some UFA years with that (or at the very least, 1 UFA year)...

With some negotiation there is no reason why the "Bridge Deal" couldn't have been worked into a longer term deal. Landeskog didn't sign a Bridge Deal and neither did a fair amount of these newer players when their ELC's end.

Where I lay the fault upon the Old Avalanche Front Office is that when it was apparent that O'Reilly didn't want a Bridge Deal they decided to metaphorically slap him in the face with a 5 year offer worth less (AAV-wise) than the Bridge Deal offering

 

[InjuredChoker]

While I agree that the Bridge Deal offered to him wasn't a "lowball offer" the 5 year one was most definitely a "lowball offer". It became clear that O'Reilly didn't want a Bridge Deal, he wanted the longer term deal and with that a bump in pay.

What's really sad is that the rumors were he was looking for around $5M AAV on a longer term deal, that is the number that kept getting reported. Imagine if we had done that, we would have bought some UFA years with that (or at the very least, 1 UFA year)...

With some negotiation there is no reason why the "Bridge Deal" couldn't have been worked into a longer term deal. Landeskog didn't sign a Bridge Deal and neither did a fair amount of these newer players when their ELC's end.

Where I lay the fault upon the Old Avalanche Front Office is that when it was apparent that O'Reilly didn't want a Bridge Deal they decided to metaphorically slap him in the face with a 5 year offer worth less (AAV-wise) than the Bridge Deal offering

top 3 picks vs. 2nd rounder.

and track record.

 

[henchman21]

I really arnt what? That doesnt even make sense.

And you still are failing to get what i am saying. These other players are being completely underpaid. The managements knew they would be good, but they still forced a bridge deal on them because, well, thats common practice and the players are just expected to take it. You can compare RoRs bridge offer to as many bridge offers as you want. The more top players you mention with bridge offers, the more you further my point. just because its common practice does not make it any less of a lowball offer. These guys are not getting paid what they are worth. Not even close.

Getting the point... Don't know what you asked...

I get your point... You don't get the reality in the NHL. Bridge contracts are the lay of the land, 'right' or not. Which that is even debatable.

ROR was far from a proven commodity back then. Now he is proven and will be paid like it.

While I agree that the Bridge Deal offered to him wasn't a "lowball offer" the 5 year one was most definitely a "lowball offer". It became clear that O'Reilly didn't want a Bridge Deal, he wanted the longer term deal and with that a bump in pay.

What's really sad is that the rumors were he was looking for around $5M AAV on a longer term deal, that is the number that kept getting reported. Imagine if we had done that, we would have bought some UFA years with that (or at the very least, 1 UFA year)...

With some negotiation there is no reason why the "Bridge Deal" couldn't have been worked into a longer term deal. Landeskog didn't sign a Bridge Deal and neither did a fair amount of these newer players when their ELC's end.

Where I lay the fault upon the Old Avalanche Front Office is that when it was apparent that O'Reilly didn't want a Bridge Deal they decided to metaphorically slap him in the face with a 5 year offer worth less (AAV-wise) than the Bridge Deal offering

The old management was bridge deal or no deal sort. They were wrong there, and should have given a better long term offer, but at that point ROR wasn't worth $5m long term. Maybe 4.5, but closer to 4. He had one good season with Landy on his wing and would be the #3C with everybody healthy. Reluctance on a long term deal I understood at that point.

3.5m bridge was a fair offer contrary to what people want to claim.