O'Reilly needs an O'Rolex Watch - Summer 2014 - Arbitration Date: 7/23/14

[Cousin Eddie]

The reason I'm holding judgement is because during the last O'Reilly contract negotiations I actually met ROR. He was such a nice guy. He actually told me he was changing his number to 90 but not to release that information because they were going to announce it when they announced the contract. He seemed pretty sure a contract was just about ready but I didn't want to ask too much about personal things like that so I shook his hand and let him enjoy his night.

Before TPS got attacked by everybody on here he mentioned something along the lines of O'Reilly being close to having a contract and then everything was just put on hold for the team to go negotatie with EJ. While my 5 minute conversation with O'Reilly may have simply left me star struck and oblivious to what was actually happening, the timing of him "appearing" to have confidence in a deal soon being and TPS's desription of things being put on hold seemed to make a lot of sense to me.

I love O'Reilly, I hope he isn't greedy and I hope this gets done soon. Is it possible that O'Reilly is trying to pinch out a lot more than he deserves? Probably more possible than I want to make myself believe. Are the Avs being difficult to negotiatie with? Very possible again.

I don't know what's going on but I hope something gets done soon.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

Hopefully you're right. I think people have 'turned' on him because of the fact we may lose him to free agency in two years depending on the negotiation process. After losing Stastny we simply cannot afford to lose O'Reilly. A trade would only hurt us as I feel we'd be the ones giving up the better player. Hopefully we lock him up to a long-term deal and this is a distant memory because all in all, he's one of our core guys and an amazing hockey player.

Yeah, thats total fair. Lets turn on a guy before anything even happens. I mean, it may happen so we might as well turn on him now.

 

[AslanRH]

his plusminus gets dragged down playing with duchene. they are fine when he plays without him the past 3 seasons. only this year did it drop that low. his GF% is 53.4 the past 3 seasons without duchene, 49.6% with him.

not that it matters as he isn't toews, bergeron or kopi who are top 10Cs to me and better than anyone on our roster.

I agree, but people often mention Selke caliber and those 3 guys in the same breath as ROR when trying to place a value on him, especially on this board.

While I think ROR is very good defensively, that discussion I think it is a valid argument in Arbitration that his defensive impact is over stated. He was 11th, 23rd, and 7th on the team the 3 years prior to 13-14.

side note, Cliche was more abysmal than I thought. last on the team at -11. I am burning my "Cliche wasn't that bad for a waiver pickup" membership card.

 

[Former Ladder]

Maybe we keep signing all these contracts so that we are pressed against the cap and then management will be all like, "I would love to give you the money you want but we can't so here is an 8 year contract with 5.95 million AAV."

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

Fun little tidbit I found

Bergeron - #2 on his team in +/-
Kopitar - #1 on his team in +/-
Toews - #3 on his team in +/-
O'Reilly - #24 on his team in +/-
(Landeskog - #1, MacKinnon - #2, Stastny - #6, Duchene- #7)

While many are quick to dismiss +/- as a useful stat, it is somewhat relevant when comparing players to their line mates and team mates.

If I'm taking ROR to Arbitration, I would definitely be using that when discussing value.

Yeah, thats a smart way to show someone what they are worth. Take pointless crap stats and spin it to make them look bad. Our staff starts acting like butt hurt fans and this is going to get very ugly very quick. There will be no "this is just business". Thats when it gets personal and there is no coming back.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

his plusminus gets dragged down playing with duchene. they are fine when he plays without him the past 3 seasons. only this year did it drop that low. his GF% is 53.4 the past 3 seasons without duchene, 49.6% with him.

not that it matters as he isn't toews, bergeron or kopi who are top 10Cs to me and better than anyone on our roster.

And Pap, and MacK, and Downie. Pretty sad when McGinn is the best defensive partner one has out of the top5 most used line mates.

 

[InjuredChoker]

I agree, but people often mention Selke caliber and those 3 guys in the same breath as ROR when trying to place a value on him, especially on this board.

While I think ROR is very good defensively, that discussion I think it is a valid argument in Arbitration that his defensive impact is over stated. He was 11th, 23rd, and 7th on the team the 3 years prior to 13-14.

side note, Cliche was more abysmal than I thought. last on the team at -11. I am burning my "Cliche wasn't that bad for a waiver pickup" membership card.

yeah, his scoring isn't elite and his D doesn't show up in any stat (except takeaways) so he really has no case for more than 6 mil.

and just takeaways won't cut it.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

His placement in Selke voting as a winger will certainly help him out.

 

[AslanRH]

Yeah, thats a smart way to show someone what they are worth. Take pointless crap stats and spin it to make them look bad. Our staff starts acting like butt hurt fans and this is going to get very ugly very quick. There will be no "this is just business". Thats when it gets personal and there is no coming back.

So I take it you are not a fan of +/-

Arbitrations always get personal. You are basically forcing a player to sell himself to a 3rd party while the team has to try counter and mitigate his value. I'll try to find them later, but there were some pretty good stories from players describing the hearings. It sucks I'm sure for all parties, but that is the business part of the negotiation.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Does anybody know when O'Reilly's date is? I remember Bob Mac said it would likely be late July but I haven't seen any real confirmation.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

yeah, his scoring isn't elite and his D doesn't show up in any stat (except takeaways) so he really has no case for more than 6 mil.

and just takeaways won't cut it.

The Avs value him for everything that does not show up on a stat sheet. He knows this. They know this. Hockey fans in general know this. Everybody knows this. No way they go in talking about stats. "Hey, we know you are much more valuable that your stats, but we are going to talk stats in order to pay you less." Yeah, that will work out well. That will destroy the relationship.

He isnt getting over 6 anyways. There just are not any comparable contracts over that, RFA-wise. The avs did all they needed to do to get him at 6 max by taking him to arbitration.

 

[henchman21]

Are the Avs being difficult to negotiatie with? Very possible again.

Overall, the Avs don't look to be a team that is that difficult to negotiate with. The McGinn deal was generous and got done quite easily. The Duchene deal was comparable and got done easily. The Landy deal was very generous coming off a bad sophomore season. The Varly deal was again very generous considering his limited track record. Mitchell and Holden got 3 year extensions, which is an eternity for players of their caliber. Cliche and Guenin got 2 year deals, which players of their caliber just don't get. Sakic and Roy's track record of re-signing players does not signal they are difficult in any manner, if anything it shows they are very player friendly on term and money. They may stick to their guns on structure, but they should do that as ROR's comparables across the league and on the team show that a <$6m contract is more than fair for him. If ROR was willing to sign a Landy type, the deal would already be done. It would probably also be done if he was willing to sign a Varly type deal.

 

[InjuredChoker]

The Avs value him for everything that does not show up on a stat sheet. He knows this. They know this. Hockey fans in general know this. Everybody knows this. No way they go in talking about stats. "Hey, we know you are much more valuable that your stats, but we are going to talk stats in order to pay you less." Yeah, that will work out well. That will destroy the relationship.

He isnt getting over 6 anyways. There just are not any comparable contracts over that, RFA-wise. The avs did all they needed to do to get him at 6 max by taking him to arbitration.

arbitration is all about stats. i do agree it's better to not go there and there is more to ROR's game than what is showing up in stat sheet so far.

 

[AslanRH]

Here is Dater's SI piece on arbitration. It's not bad for being Dater. I know there are more stories, but I found this first.

Dater's SI Arbitration Article

 

[5280]

Overall, the Avs don't look to be a team that is that difficult to negotiate with. The McGinn deal was generous and got done quite easily. The Duchene deal was comparable and got done easily. The Landy deal was very generous coming off a bad sophomore season. The Varly deal was again very generous considering his limited track record. Mitchell and Holden got 3 year extensions, which is an eternity for players of their caliber. Cliche and Guenin got 2 year deals, which players of their caliber just don't get. Sakic and Roy's track record of re-signing players does not signal they are difficult in any manner, if anything it shows they are very player friendly on term and money. They may stick to their guns on structure, but they should do that as ROR's comparables across the league and on the team show that a <$6m contract is more than fair for him. If ROR was willing to sign a Landy type, the deal would already be done. It would probably also be done if he was willing to sign a Varly type deal.

So much this.

 

[hockeyfish]

Regardless of how bad this situation is (not as bad as we make it to be), at least he isn't Evander Kane.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Does anybody know when O'Reilly's date is? I remember Bob Mac said it would likely be late July but I haven't seen any real confirmation.

I'm sure when they set it then it will be all over the news and here, you won't miss it.

The player file deadline was just on Saturday, they will schedule them all soon enough.

 

[hockeyfish]

I'm sure when they set it then it will be all over the news and here, you won't miss it.

The player file deadline was just on Saturday, they will schedule them all soon enough.

According to the CBA, the dates should already be set.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Well they haven't announced them.

 

[hockeyfish]

Well they haven't announced them.

Well, yeah, but Monday is the date they were all set.

 

[tigervixxxen]

They compile the list on the first business day after the deadline, however

The parties shall use their best efforts to schedule all of the salary arbitration hearings within forty-eight (48) hours of the compilation of the Player List. All salary arbitration hearings shall be completed in accordance with the Critical Date Calendar as set forth in Exhibit 15.

So the lucky day is probably today.

 

[hockeyfish]

They compile the list on the first business day after the deadline, however



So the lucky day is probably today.

I didn't see that part.

 

[Freudian]

The reason to be optimistic is that it would take one or both sides being utterly stupid to not get a long term deal done. The reason to be pessimistic is that one or both sides have been utterly stupid in the past.

 

[Stig]

Here is some info about it and the dates, kinda....

http://www.denverpost.com/avalanche...utive-joe-sakic-shifts-attention-ryan-oreilly

If the Avs and O'Reilly can't agree on a deal by July 15, their case will be assigned to an arbitrator and the hearing has to take place before July 30.

So the way I see it, they have until the 15th to lock him up long term, if it goes to Arbitration I really see him getting traded.

 

[hockeyfish]

Here is some info about it and the dates, kinda....

http://www.denverpost.com/avalanche...utive-joe-sakic-shifts-attention-ryan-oreilly



So the way I see it, they have until the 15th to lock him up long term, if it goes to Arbitration I really see him getting traded.

Thats not what the CBA says, but whatever.