O'Reilly needs an O'Rolex Watch - Summer 2014 - Arbitration Date: 7/23/14

[henchman21]

O'Reilly wearing a USA Hockey jersey. Treason.

He is just selling his citizenship to the highest bidder...

 

[Avsboy]

I think it's more that he idolizes Stastny. Stastny was never "underpaid" by ROR's standards and now he just reached the coveted UFA status where he signed for $7 million on a contending team.

You can see it in O'Reilly's eyes. He wants to be Stastny.

 

[AslanRH]

"Good Game Paulie"
"You too Factor"
"Sorry I'm going to take your money"
"Eh, I'll still make more than you so it's OK"

 

[ORLY]

ROR getting his face bopped around as the wild were celebrating their OT goal was foreshadowing the rocky summer negotiations. I believe there's a gif of it floating around. Surely that cannot be ROR's last moment as an avalanche. Almost better than Foote's.

 

[CB Joe]

i wouldnt go that far ,

But last time i checked he was still playing for the Avs, so how come he didnt put on a Avs Jersey , like Hishon did ? Yeah i know he's RFA and in contract negociation , but still it's sending mixed signals IMO

Probably can't afford it.

 

[AslanRH]

ROR getting his face bopped around as the wild were celebrating their OT goal was foreshadowing the rocky summer negotiations. I believe there's a gif of it floating around. Surely that cannot be ROR's last moment as an avalanche. Almost better than Foote's.

"Arbitration????? That's just like a slap in the face!"

 

[ORLY]

"Arbitration????? That's just like a slap in the face!"

There they are! always good for a laugh. I wonder if other avs players have seen that. The yearbook one is great.

 

[RockLobster]

That Wild/O'Reilly gif is tough to watch...because he has to have that happen to him and then we have all seen the pic/video of him in the locker room after.

That's why it bugs me that people have turned on him for what I believe is NOTHING right now. All this conjecture that he's greedy and such. Nothing says that he is...this all happened because the Avalanche decided to go for Team Elected Arbitration, a move that I'm 100% positive the O'Reilly camp knew about before the season even ended (and most assuredly before the news got out) because based on Ryan's answers in the media, he understood.

The only reason he has a reputation as a "tough negotiator" is because the Avs dicked him around severely last time. Otherwise there is 100% NO INDICATIONS that it is the same this time around because even Joe has said that they haven't talked since filing for Arbitration!

He'll be signed, and the team will be BETTER because of it.

 

[ORLY]

^Agreed, I'm holding off any judgement of ROR until after this whole thing unfolds. And about the gifs, yeah I was not laughing when it happened, even took a break from these boards for a few months because I was so disappointed with how the season ended. But the future is bright, there is a lot to look forward to.

 

[AvalancheFan19]

That Wild/O'Reilly gif is tough to watch...because he has to have that happen to him and then we have all seen the pic/video of him in the locker room after.

That's why it bugs me that people have turned on him for what I believe is NOTHING right now. All this conjecture that he's greedy and such. Nothing says that he is...this all happened because the Avalanche decided to go for Team Elected Arbitration, a move that I'm 100% positive the O'Reilly camp knew about before the season even ended (and most assuredly before the news got out) because based on Ryan's answers in the media, he understood.

The only reason he has a reputation as a "tough negotiator" is because the Avs dicked him around severely last time. Otherwise there is 100% NO INDICATIONS that it is the same this time around because even Joe has said that they haven't talked since filing for Arbitration!

He'll be signed, and the team will be BETTER because of it.

Hopefully you're right. I think people have 'turned' on him because of the fact we may lose him to free agency in two years depending on the negotiation process. After losing Stastny we simply cannot afford to lose O'Reilly. A trade would only hurt us as I feel we'd be the ones giving up the better player. Hopefully we lock him up to a long-term deal and this is a distant memory because all in all, he's one of our core guys and an amazing hockey player.

 

[RockLobster]

Hopefully you're right. I think people have 'turned' on him because of the fact we may lose him to free agency in two years depending on the negotiation process. After losing Stastny we simply cannot afford to lose O'Reilly. A trade would only hurt us as I feel we'd be the ones giving up the better player. Hopefully we lock him up to a long-term deal and this is a distant memory because all in all, he's one of our core guys and an amazing hockey player.

I won't deny that losing him to free agency would be a disaster--nor will I deny/disagree that we would likely be giving up the better player in an O'Reilly trade...but I'm very likely to be considered biased on that because I don't think it's a secret who my personal favorite Avalanche player is.

I, however, do love the Avalanche above all players, and ultimately wish/hope that O'Reilly is a player that will be on this team for many years. What will hurt though is knowing that if Pierre and Eric Lacroix had been shown the door YEARS ago (like they should have) that this may never have happened...but unfortunately I don't believe we'll ever TRULY know the damage they've done to the organization...because the flip side is their incompetence led to Duchene, Landeskog and MacKinnon.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I'm reserving judgement until I see how it plays out. Business is just business if he ends up signing a long term contract, it is all water under the bridge. The thing is people are scared and I believe rightfully so. O'Reilly is one of my favorite players, he's a great compliment to the core and he has such a unique skillset. I want him to be here for a long time. I'm scared he's going to break my heart. I'm worried that he really doesn't care one way or the other if he's an Av or plays for someone else. And I'm worried if they have to cut ties with him that the team I love and root for is going to become weaker for it. That's a lot weighing on me and everyone else so I understand the emotional responses.

It's true we don't know anything but the little we have to go by isn't helping. What happened in the past with the offer sheet is tough to forget when it CAN be an indication he wanted to play somewhere else (I understand why he did it and I'm not really debating that here), Newport absolutely has a reputation and I flat out refuse to pin all the past blame on an old regime when Newport is a HUGE player in this game (you can't blame it all on the Lacroixes because if so then this wouldn't be an issue and Newport has more than one client who holds out), every single media person (right or wrong) says there is no way it can be resolved, Pat Morris grandstanding on tv (not every unsigned RFA gets this treatment) and O'Reilly himself not really reassuring any frightened fans (I know he couldn't say much but his year to year comment isn't helping). So it's not just wild assumptions that are leaving fans worried and in a negative frame of mind. Hope for the best but expect the worst. Things like this tend to not work out in our favor very often. I haven't said one thing I couldn't take back if he stays but honestly if I did I wouldn't care because I'd be so happy it all worked out.

 

[RockLobster]

I'm reserving judgement until I see how it plays out. Business is just business if he ends up signing a long term contract, it is all water under the bridge. The thing is people are scared and I believe rightfully so. O'Reilly is one of my favorite players, he's a great compliment to the core and he has such a unique skillset. I want him to be here for a long time. I'm scared he's going to break my heart. I'm worried that he really doesn't care one way or the other if he's an Av or plays for someone else. And I'm worried if they have to cut ties with him that the team I love and root for is going to become weaker for it. That's a lot weighing on me and everyone else so I understand the emotional responses.

It's true we don't know anything but the little we have to go by isn't helping. What happened in the past with the offer sheet is tough to forget when it CAN be an indication he wanted to play somewhere else (I understand why he did it and I'm not really debating that here), Newport absolutely has a reputation and I flat out refuse to pin all the past blame on an old regime when Newport is a HUGE player in this game (you can't blame it all on the Lacroixes because if so then this wouldn't be an issue and Newport has more than one client who holds out), every single media person (right or wrong) says there is no way it can be resolved, Pat Morris grandstanding on tv (not every unsigned RFA gets this treatment) and O'Reilly himself not really reassuring any frightened fans (I know he couldn't say much but his year to year comment isn't helping). So it's not just wild assumptions that are leaving fans worried and in a negative frame of mind. Hope for the best but expect the worst. Things like this tend to not work out in our favor very often. I haven't said one thing I couldn't take back if he stays but honestly if I did I wouldn't care because I'd be so happy it all worked out.

Players sign offer sheets...it doesn't happen a lot but it happens.

As had been pointed out, Sakic signed one that damn near bankrupted the owners (the ones before Kroenke bought them)! And it sure as hell wasn't signed JUST because he would've had the opportunity to play with Gretzky, it may have helped, but he signed that because it was, at the time, the largest NHL contract...designed to not be matched by the Avalanche.

The Lacroix's messed **** up big time. We heard negotiations were going fine last time, TPS (before he decided to stop sharing info because of how people treated him for it) even said that both sides "love each other"...that ended when the old Avs front office did their whole "take it out leave it approach".

O'Reilly and his camp felt they had earned more, and I would REALLY call people out of they said that if put in a similar situation that they wouldn't fight for what they believe they're worth.

The terrible thing is the bridge deal that they wanted him to sign could've been included! Lando's current deal more or less has it before going up even more.

THAT'S where I place a lot of the blame on the Lacroix's. After being insulted by them he decided to let the professionals (his agency) take care of it.

I know people will disagree with me, I know I'm sorely outnumbered when it comes to my stance on this subject, it is what it is though....at the end of the day I firmly believe that an Avalanche team with O'Reilly is a better one than a team without him.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I'm still holding out hope, I really am, because most of the time these things resolve themselves. But I find it hard to be optimistic just because especially when logic starts leaning the other way. Good news is we should know soon enough.

 

[raistlin76]

I firmly believe that an Avalanche team with O'Reilly is a better one than a team without him.

I also believe AVS are better with than without O'Reilly. But at the same time I think if it goes to arbitration and contract isn't sign before that he is goner. It will be much easier to trade him at fair value when he is 2 years away from UFA status than at deadline just before he hits his UFA status especially if AVS don't want to make mistake like with Stastny.

I firmly believe they made mistake when they didn't give him 5x5 million contract two years ago. Time has passed and showed that 5 million would be a bargain right now. AVS decide to play hardball with him, wanted bridge deal and whole mess started. At the same time I blame his agency right now for playing hardball and for standpoint "he is 6,5 million player". No he isn't his cap-hit was 5 millions. I think our one-year old management is fair for the players. Landeskog, Varly signed fair contracts and will earn lot of money during that. They gave a chance to players like Guenin, Holden and Nick Holden is perfect example how player is treated fairly and for his game can earn nice rise. I think they try to treat O'Reilly fairly, just don't want to pay him more than they think he deserves. If I was them... I probably would give him 8 year 51 million deal (6.375 cap-hit, think he and his agency would take it) and say cap goes up by 7% so does our structure. I think main problem is that AVS want to pay him 5,6 - 5,7 millions at best and he don't want to take it knowing that on the market he would get money similar to Stastny.

The problem with giving him over 6 millions is that we still have to sign Barrie, Elliott. I don't know what is going on with Hishon. Read that he accepts QO so he should be on 1-year 1,2 million contract. But I didn't find any confirmation of that, so don't know if it's true. Regardless we have roughly 10 millions to spend so giving ROR over 6 means that we have to sign 4 players for 4 millions which is impossible. IMHO they made mistake that they didn't bought out Wilson. It would free 2.25 millions for other contracts. Also I don't understand why they didn't use compliance buyout on Zanon last year. We are still penalized 0.75 million for that.

I love ROR, would like him to be Avalanche for rest of his career, but as for now it looks like dead-end. If he accepts 2-year salary arbitration he is gone. Hope they trade him for stud d-man. But I'm afraid they will try to make a deal with 'Peg for Evander Kane. Don't like this guy I think he is lazy andhas some behavioral problems. His trips to Vegas, photos with wad of dollars etc. are not good showcase. I don't think he can be "new Iginla". Jarome is work-horse, Kane looks more like his current team-mate Dustin Byfuglien - lazy fat-ass.

 

[Balthazar]

When is the hearing with the arbitrator anyway? They said "in July". We're almost mid-July now, we need a date.

 

[tigervixxxen]

When is the hearing with the arbitrator anyway? They said "in July". We're almost mid-July now, we need a date.

The deadline for players to elect arbitration just passed a few days ago, it will be scheduled soon enough.

I firmly believe they made mistake when they didn't give him 5x5 million contract two years ago. Time has passed and showed that 5 million would be a bargain right now

In hindsight yes absolutely 5x5 sounds pretty good right about now. However, that also would mean he would be a UFA 3 years from now, which is pretty much what we are looking at anyway. Also, hindsight tells us what type of player he has become, much easier to give that now rather than going off of his first three years.

 

[raistlin76]

In hindsight yes absolutely 5x5 sounds pretty good right about now. However, that also would mean he would be a UFA 3 years from now, which is pretty much what we are looking at anyway. Also, hindsight tells us what type of player he has become, much easier to give that now rather than going off of his first three years.

He is 2 years from UFA right now, not 3 and I think it may be much easier to negotiate new deal without all history. Of course they say "no hard feelings" but I'm sure both sides remember what happened. It's ****** situation, hope they resolve it, maybe AVS need to give up a little bit and break or bend their structure to keep ROR. He is important player on this team and losing him for 0.5 million a year would be very stupid.

 

[tigervixxxen]

The problem with giving him over 6 millions is that we still have to sign Barrie, Elliott. I don't know what is going on with Hishon. Read that he accepts QO so he should be on 1-year 1,2 million contract. But I didn't find any confirmation of that, so don't know if it's true. Regardless we have roughly 10 millions to spend so giving ROR over 6 means that we have to sign 4 players for 4 millions which is impossible. IMHO they made mistake that they didn't bought out Wilson. It would free 2.25 millions for other contracts. Also I don't understand why they didn't use compliance buyout on Zanon last year. We are still penalized 0.75 million for that.

I was looking at this anyway but I'm glad you brought it up. Everyone says we gave plenty of cap to make it work so I wanted to really crunch the numbers to see what we can do.

CapGeek has updated our cap situation and added Noreau's contract so we stand officially at $9,695,238 in cap space with a roster of 23 players. However, we need to still sign O'Reilly, Barrie and Elliott. I'm not concerned with Hishon because he should get a two way deal and start the season in the AHL. If they keep handing out one way contracts like candy then as long as it is 925k or less then it still doesn't impact the cap to send him down, for sanity sake I'm assuming this happens. For Elliott I'm using the cap figure from CapGeek on his qualifying offer but he could also sign for higher. So let's say:

6,000,000 O'Reilly
3,000,000 Barrie
850,500 Elliott
$9,850,500
-9,695,238 cap space
(155,262 over the cap)

But, we get to send 3 players down and remove their cap hit so take your choice of who the lucky three are going to be. Keep in mind that the maximum cap hit a player can take with him to the minors is 925k and that assumes he stays down there the entire season. If he needs to come up then his NHL salary will count at a daily rate and the team no longer gets to enjoy the full savings. The candidates are:

925,000 Wilson (the max savings he can take)
900,000 Winchester
850,500 Elliott
800,000 Guenin
750,000 Redmond
700,000 Cliche
635,000 Noreau

Most people seem to think that Wilson, Guenin and Cliche are the most likely so combined their cap savings are $2,425,000 and deduct the already cap overage of $155,262 and the Avs cap room is $2,269,738. THIS IS WITH ROR MAKING 6 MILLION.

Obviously a few things we don't know. Barrie could be less (or more, yikes) as he is very difficult to estimate, Elliott could actually make more, they could send down a more (or less, yikes) expensive trio. But basically what I'm trying to say is they simply cannot give ROR whatever he wants, there are some real cap considerations. How close to the top are the Avs going to be comfortable scraping the top of the cap? 1 million, 2 million, less? plus knowing MacKinnon will be owed some bonuses has to come into play too. Those that say the structure is stupid, my point is they actually have a reason for this because they can realistically afford is 6 million but how much more? And Barrie is key here too, he's what is going to determine how much they can go up on ROR.

 

[AslanRH]

Fun little tidbit I found

Bergeron - #2 on his team in +/-
Kopitar - #1 on his team in +/-
Toews - #3 on his team in +/-
O'Reilly - #24 on his team in +/-
(Landeskog - #1, MacKinnon - #2, Stastny - #6, Duchene- #7)

While many are quick to dismiss +/- as a useful stat, it is somewhat relevant when comparing players to their line mates and team mates.

If I'm taking ROR to Arbitration, I would definitely be using that when discussing value.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Fun little tidbit I found

Bergeron - #2 on his team in +/-
Kopitar - #1 on his team in +/-
Toews - #3 on his team in +/-
O'Reilly - #24 on his team in +/-
(Landeskog - #1, MacKinnon - #2, Stastny - #6, Duchene- #7)

While many are quick to dismiss +/- as a useful stat, it is somewhat relevant when comparing players to their line mates and team mates.

If I'm taking ROR to Arbitration, I would definitely be using that when discussing value.

his plusminus gets dragged down playing with duchene. they are fine when he plays without him the past 3 seasons. only this year did it drop that low. his GF% is 53.4 the past 3 seasons without duchene, 49.6% with him.

not that it matters as he isn't toews, bergeron or kopi who are top 10Cs to me and better than anyone on our roster.

 

[Gigantor The Goalie]

his plusminus gets dragged down playing with duchene. they are fine when he plays without him the past 3 seasons. only this year did it drop that low. his GF% is 53.4 the past 3 seasons without duchene, 49.6% with him.

not that it matters as he isn't toews, bergeron or kopi who are top 10Cs to me and better than anyone on our roster.

That might be more because of the rotating RWer's that are all not so great defensively, Downie/PAP/McGinn etc.

 

[InjuredChoker]

That might be more because of the rotating RWer's that are all not so great defensively, Downie/PAP/McGinn etc.

that, sample size, poor luck/randomness that evens out long-term etc.

but whatever the reason, they were bleeding goals against and that has to stop. no playoff team had a player that were as bad (of players that played full season with po-team).

pure GA can be misleading but if i'm the avs, this is one area that i'd look at this offseason.

 

[hockeyfish]

When is the hearing with the arbitrator anyway? They said "in July". We're almost mid-July now, we need a date.

I don't know, I haven't heard of them doing the coin flip to determine the dates (not joking, a coin flip is part of it)

 

[niwotsblessing]

That Wild/O'Reilly gif is tough to watch...because he has to have that happen to him and then we have all seen the pic/video of him in the locker room after.

That's why it bugs me that people have turned on him for what I believe is NOTHING right now. All this conjecture that he's greedy and such. Nothing says that he is...this all happened because the Avalanche decided to go for Team Elected Arbitration, a move that I'm 100% positive the O'Reilly camp knew about before the season even ended (and most assuredly before the news got out) because based on Ryan's answers in the media, he understood.

The only reason he has a reputation as a "tough negotiator" is because the Avs dicked him around severely last time. Otherwise there is 100% NO INDICATIONS that it is the same this time around because even Joe has said that they haven't talked since filing for Arbitration!

He'll be signed, and the team will be BETTER because of it.

He could sign for the same money as Duchene this morning at 10 and that would end the discussion. Dutchy, Captain Landeskog and Varly all signed big money contracts with a minimum of drama, O'Reilly can do the same. The Avs filed for arbitration to protect their interests, and given the last round of public statements from both Newport and Papa O'Reilly the Avs were wise to do so. Bottom line for me is O'Reilly can end the drama by telling his agent to "be quiet" (not what I had originally typed) and cut a deal within the Structure that will allow the Avs to remain competitive over time.