OOT Scoreboard 2018-19 Part IV

[MadDevil]

Since we're on the topic of goaltending, the PDOcast had somebody on talking about goaltending recently that I would suggest listening to if you're at all interested in goalies.

 

[Bleedred]

Since we're on the topic of goaltending, the PDOcast had somebody on talking about goaltending recently that I would suggest listening to if you're at all interested in goalies.

Definitely interested.

Do I find this on the podcast app on my phone?

 

[MadDevil]

Definitely interested.

Do I find this on the podcast app on my phone?

I would think so. If not I'm pretty sure it's on soundcloud. It's one of the few hockey podcasts I listen to regularly. It's pretty much that, Puck Soup, and sometimes 31 Thoughts.

 

[Ripshot 43]

Thanks and I think I have you to credit for asking me to do this back when the season started. And I can also blame you when the small but vocal sect of posters gets pissed off by all the reviews and analysis.

I’ve already got a couple of the Jones homers pissed off over on the Sharks forum. There’s some people who will find something wrong to go out of their way to not blame the goalie (Jones) on certain shots. “it’s a laser!” Or “The goalie only makes that save if the puck hits him and he gets lucky” or “There was a screen” from one skater 33 feet out. Or “It deflected off a skate lace”. It was the same thing over here with the “If you take his games against Toronto and Tampa Bay outbof his stats then Kinkaid would have a decent save percentage” stuff. Or the “Time to eat crow on Cory because 17 good games that proceeded 20 of the worst games a goalie has had in years is enough to deduce that he’s probably back to normal”. And I’m also waiting for the goalie Union to send me a cease and desist.

There will be a stoppable goal Jennings Trophy, which Mikko Koskinen currently has a one goal lead over Martin Jones for and a 2 goal lead over Connor Hellebuyck.

There’s also a stoppable goal Vezina, which goes to the highest percentage of goals counted stoppable and it will have a games played requirement. Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen are neck and neck. Hopefully that’s decided tonight. Think Smith leads by a fraction.

I will absolutely take some of the credit but none of he blame . You are quite hard on goalies but what else would one expect when you’ve watched every single goal scored from this season .

One of my favorite things to look out for all season that I haven’t told you about till now is that when I would scroll by on the nhl site and the thumb nail would boast about a crazy good goal or a “must see snipe” and then you had it as your softy of the night or runner up (legitimately). That gave me a laugh almost every night.

 

[Bleedred]

I would think so. If not I'm pretty sure it's on soundcloud. It's one of the few hockey podcasts I listen to regularly. It's pretty much that, Puck Soup, and sometimes 31 Thoughts.

Do you remember what episode it was? Most recent episode is titled Vasilevskiy’s perfect Storm

Actually, I think is it. I’m a few minutes in. .

 

[longislanddevil]

Chris Ryan did a good job of explaining potential tiebreakers with LA for whatever it's worth. We won't 'win' a tie with the Kings if we each have 70 points. We could if we each have 71, if the Kings win in regulation or OT.

This is correct. Theoretically, we could get 1 point tonight but the Kings would then need to win in regulation or OT. If we lose tonight, the Kings would still need two points but it doesn’t matter if it comes via the SO. If we lose and the Kings only get 1 point, we finish with the same amount of points but lose the tiebreaker.

So what exactly is at stake?
- The odds of landing a top 4 pick are 73% for the second worst team, compared to 47% for the third worst team.

- The second worst team guarantees a top 5 pick whereas the third worst team guarantees a top 6 pick.

- Nominal increase in odds to pull a lottery ball for 1, 2, 3. 13.5% compared to 11.5% for the top pick. 13% compared to 11.3% for the second pick. 12.3% compared to 11.1% for the third pick. The biggest statistical advantage comes with the possibly of picking 4th which is 33.3% compared 13.3%.

It would be nice to improve our odds some more. With that said, the most important leap IMHO was finally moving into that 3 spot. The fourth worst team only has a 2.8% chance of picking 4th. In other words, they would need the three worst teams to all win ping pong balls and that is highly unlikely. Many of us are in the Byram camp after Hughes/Kakko and with it appearing more and more likely Byram could go 3 or 4, finishing fourth worst would have made the Byram possibility significantly less likely.

Can’t wait for Tuesday night!!

 

[Desert Devil]

Since we're on the topic of goaltending, the PDOcast had somebody on talking about goaltending recently that I would suggest listening to if you're at all interested in goalies.

Kevin Woodley. He’s also on the InGoal Magazine podcast with Darren Millard. It’s a weekly podcast. Lots of gear talk though. My favorite podcast.

 

[jkrdevil]

Rangers pull ahead 3-2. Score holds give us Caps-Penguins in round 1 and could move Edmonton ahead of the Rangers in the lottery

 

[Emperoreddy]

Great. Can ignore the tank brigade in LA tonight.

 

[NJDevs26]

Great. Can ignore the tank brigade in LA tonight.

Just imagine the griping if we had lost that stupid game in Sunrise and the Kings lost their game anyway.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

what an end to that canadiens and maple leafs game.

 

[NJDevs26]

what an end to that canadiens and maple leafs game.

Hah yeah I missed the first part of the postgame here listening to it. Meaningless sure but adios Bob Cole, at least he got a Habs win to go out on lol

 

[Emperoreddy]

Just imagine the griping if we had lost that stupid game in Sunrise and the Kings lost their game anyway.

Can still happen if LA wins tonight.

 

[Bleedred]

Unbelievable.

Kings are looking like they might win this one.

I guess the defense is really helping Quick out tonight.

 

[Bleedred]

Since we're on the topic of goaltending, the PDOcast had somebody on talking about goaltending recently that I would suggest listening to if you're at all interested in goalies.

Listened this morning. Great listen and I'd recommend it to anyone. Loved the part where he talked about Jones and implied he passed the eye test until he started breaking down some of his goals and that he watched the last 100 goals against Jones, as well as other playoff bound team starters. I even noticed a lot of what he was talking about with goalies in Luongo in this game.

He even brought up Dubnyk in that game where Cory got his first win and Boudreau threw him under the bus.

Funny how he thinks Price has been one of the best in the league this year, many advanced goalie stats suggest he has been and so does my eye test, despite a solid (but not nearly league leading) .917% save percentage, as well as John Gibson.

I will say Marc-Andre Fleury has been a lot better to me than his save percentage would suggest this year (haven't reviewed tonight's game yet). And many advanced goalie stats agree with me that Koskinen has been TERRIBLE this year, despite still being above .900% in save percentage by a bit. Smith is also near the bottom in many of them, as well on my eye test. I did expect Frederik Andersen to be a bit higher, as he's pretty good on my eye test.

Thanks to him bringing it up in the podcast, I checked out clear sight analytics, which is Valiquette's site. I know we don't like him, but I trust his analysis on goalies because he played the position and I checked out the site. Keith Kinkaid was at the bottom of the expected save percentage stat, so I'm not sure what that malarkey was about his overall save percentage not being much lower than his expected save percentage. Probably just made up propaganda to rationalize a poor performing player. Outside of Koskinen, Smith and a few guys sparsely used (Sparks, Copley, a few others), Kinkaid has probably been the worst on my eye test. The third worst on my eye test out of any goalies that have played more than 30 games or so. Even worse than Quick (not by much), Jones and Ward.

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

man f*** the kings. they better not win picks 1-3

 

[Bleedred]

man **** the kings. they better not win picks 1-3

They're gonna be bad for a while.

They better hope they can make Jeff Carter LTIR or force Kovalchuk into another retirement, but I'm not sure how that would work since he's a 35+ contract.

They might be the next Detroit. Slammed to the cap and with many older player and not competitive, with a bloated payroll.

Chicago might also be there with them, but at least they aren't signing players like Abdelkader to stupid deals.

 

[jkrdevil]

Unbelievable.

Kings are looking like they might win this one.

I guess the defense is really helping Quick out tonight.

Nightmare scenario could be Kings and Rangers both moving up to 1&2 and both teams falling into those positions because of the game last Monday.

 

[Bleedred]

Nightmare scenario could be Kings and Rangers both moving up to 1&2 and both teams falling into those positions because of the game last Monday.

Eh

I think that's a little too paranoia.

Besides, we could say that about any one win this season.

Not to mention that the Rangers are 3-1-0 against us this season, with some really pathetic losses on our part.

 

[Bleedred]

Goals against review for tonight. The regular season finale version of the goals against review.

Devils vs Panthers: 3 goals against Blackwood, 1 stoppable. 4 goals against Luongo, 1 stoppable.

Lightning vs Bruins: 3 goals against Pasquale, no chance on any. 5 goals against Rask, 2 stoppable.

Canucks vs Blues: 2 goals against Demko, both are stoppable. 2 goals against Binnington, no chance on either.

Maple Leafs vs Canadiens: 5 goals against Andersen, 2 stoppable. 5 goals against Lindgren, 2 stoppable.

Blue Jackets vs Senators: 2 goals against Korpisalo, no chance on either. 3 goals against Anderson, 2 stoppable. 2 goals against Nilsson in relief, 1 stoppable.

Sabres vs Red Wings: 1 goal against Ullmark, no chance. 5 goals against Howard, no chance on any. 2 goals against Fulcher in relief, 1 stoppable.

Hurricanes vs Flyers: 3 goals against McElhinney, 1 stoppable. 4 goals against Hart, no chance on any.

Rangers vs Penguins: 3 goals against Georgiev, no chance on any. 4 goals against Murray, 3 stoppable. I think I put a DD style jinx on Murray after gloating about him this morning. Great season for him and I think if he played a few more games he would have been a Vezina candidate, but he had a really bad game. Georgiev continues to be a real stud though.

Islanders vs Capitals: 2 goals against Copley, no chance on either. Lehner gets the shutout.

Blackhawks vs Predators: 4 goals against Ward, 3 stoppable. 2 goals against Rinne, no chance on either. Ward allowed 4 goals on 49 shots and played great on paper, but all the goals were clean shots from distance. One was a point shot with barely any screen, but I think I felt bad for him and gave him a no-chance on the screen there.

Wild vs Stars: 3 goals against Stalock, 1 stoppable. Bishop gets another shutout.

Jets vs Coyotes: 2 goals against Hellebuyck, 1 stoppable. 4 goals against Pickard, 1 stoppable. Probably a softy of the night in there on Hellebuyck.

Oilers vs Flames: AKA: The first annual Bleedred stoppable goal Vezina tiebreaker game: 1 goal against Koskinen, no chance. 3 goals against Smith and all 3 goals are stoppable. One through the arm and body (Draisaitl's 50th), one leaked through him creating a rebound that was put in, then he stayed on the goal line for a Darnell Nurse shot ripped upstairs. That'll win the stoppable goal Vezina for him over Koskinen, but Koskinen still gets the stoppable goal Jennings tie with Jones and if I had to give it just one, he'd win on the tiebreaker of having a higher stoppable goal percentage than Jones. Smith didn't play enough games to be able to get that.

Golden Knights vs Kings: 4 goals against Fleury, 2 stoppable. 2 goals against Quick, 1 stoppable.

Avalanche vs Sharks: 4 goals against Varlamov, 2 stoppable. 2 goals against Jones, 1 stoppable.

So that's 91 goals (I think? Too long to count) scored on goalies tonight, 33 are stoppable. That's a little over 36% of the goals scored tonight were stoppable. Combined save percentages were .905%.

 

[Bleedred]

Even though Mike Smith gave us a few more clunkers for the regular season closing night, I think softy of the night has to be this Galchenyuk goal on Hellebuyck. Tyson Nash and the Coyotes crew didn't seem to like this one either.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

After we won I knew the kings would win. There were few more blatant tank attempts over the past several years than theirs this year. Had we lost, they would have lost like 10-1.

 

[Billdo]

Figures LA. GFY and fall out of the top 3 now.

 

[Bleedred]

After we won I knew the kings would win. There were few more blatant tank attempts over the past several years than theirs this year. Had we lost, they would have lost like 10-1.

Hiring Willie D is a tank move. Playing Quick at a 55-60 game pace (only accounting for when he was healthy and not the time he missed) with the year he was having, despite getting heavily outplayed by the other two goalies that spent significant time there this year was also a tanking insurance move. And now there's even rumors and speculation that they're going to look to trade him and I don't know how they do it after him having a season like that and still having 4 years left.

Look for another team to hire Willie in the next few years (or sooner) when they make a mid-season coaching change and their season is already lost anyway.

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

After we won I knew the kings would win. There were few more blatant tank attempts over the past several years than theirs this year. Had we lost, they would have lost like 10-1.

What did the Kings do that makes you think they were tanking?