Prospect Info: Olli Juolevi, Pt. IV | Out for remainder of 2018-19

[MS]

It’s the same wait-and-see fence-sitting we saw from management apologists (and naive optimists) when Schroeder, White etc. were clearly lagging behind the expected development curve and tracking to bust.

 

[bandwagonesque]

It’s the same wait-and-see fence-sitting we saw from management apologists (and naive optimists) when Schroeder, White etc. were clearly lagging behind the expected development curve and tracking to bust.

It's also the same wait and see fence-sitting we saw when the Sedins were playing poorly at 20. Fence-sitting is the only reasonable approach when the alternatives are declaring him a bust or ignoring that he's lagging behind his development curve.

 

[PetterssonSimp]

The idea that I need to have a definite, fixed idea right now of whether Juolevi will succeed or not and the implication that not having one is a deflection is senseless. Recognizing this has nothing to do with anyone's opinion of Jim Benning, who incidentally I think is a poor GM and should be replaced.

And yet you still haven’t directly answered my original question. More deflections and bullshit. I’m looking for someone to legit say “this is his potential level at this point, I feel giving him X number of more seasons before we write him off” I wanna know where you stand, not how you stand! I could care less about any of what you said in the post as it’s just drivel at this point when you won’t directly answer a simple question.

 

[MS]

It's also the same wait and see fence-sitting we saw when the Sedins were playing poorly at 20. Fence-sitting is the only reasonable approach when the alternatives are declaring him a bust or ignoring that he's lagging behind his development curve.

There is a huge difference between fence-sitting on guys actually playing usefully in the NHL at age 20 and guys struggling in the AHL at the same age.

It shouldn’t be that hard to admit that this player is tracking very poorly right now.

 

[PetterssonSimp]

It's also the same wait and see fence-sitting we saw when the Sedins were playing poorly at 20. Fence-sitting is the only reasonable approach when the alternatives are declaring him a bust or ignoring that he's lagging behind his development curve.

Daniel Sedin scored over 20 goals in his rookie year, Hank over 30 points. Maybe do some research before throwing baseless claims out. The Schroeder/White ones are even a stretch, passed 10-15th overall the likelihood of a draft pick playing exponentially goes down. It’s quite different to have a 26th, 25th and 29th overall picks bust out than a 5th overall.

Also if this is the stance? Show some success rates of 5th or similar overall picks who took over 4 years develop away from the NHL? I’d be quite interested in that list

 

[bandwagonesque]

And yet you still haven’t directly answered my original question. More deflections and bull****. I’m looking for someone to legit say “this is his potential level at this point, I feel giving him X number of more seasons before we write him off” I wanna know where you stand, not how you stand! I could care less about any of what you said in the post as it’s just drivel at this point when you won’t directly answer a simple question.

You never asked me that question. It's also a pointless question. He's here, we can't turn back time, and we have to wait and see how he progresses. I'd say if he isn't in the NHL by 22 he's probably a bust. I'm not saying we'll definitely be justified in calling him a bust if those conditions are met, or that he won't conclusively bust earlier even if he is in the league for a while. Your question simply doesn't admit of a useful answer or address anything being discussed in this thread.

 

[bandwagonesque]

Daniel Sedin scored over 20 goals in his rookie year, Hank over 30 points. Maybe do some research before throwing baseless claims out. The Schroeder/White ones are even a stretch, passed 10-15th overall the likelihood of a draft pick playing exponentially goes down. It’s quite different to have a 26th, 25th and 29th overall picks bust out than a 5th overall.

Also if this is the stance? Show some success rates of 5th or similar overall picks who took over 4 years develop away from the NHL? I’d be quite interested in that list

The Sedins underperformed for years relative to their draft positions and expectations, and the players they were at 20 were far inferior to what they became. This is the comparison I made.

At D+4, Juolevi will be 22. I'd likely consider him a bust if he wasn't an NHL contributor.

 

[Pavel96]

The Sedins underperformed for years relative to their draft positions and expectations, and the players they were at 20 were far inferior to what they became. This is the comparison I made.

At D+4, Juolevi will be 22. I'd likely consider him a bust if he wasn't an NHL contributor.

Daniel sedin scores 20 goals in his d2. Olli may get called up at some point in his d4 if everything goes perfect for him. Such a disgusting comparison - what do you have against the sedins? Until he plays his first NHL game (in possibly his d4 if everything goes perfect), can we not compare him to NHL legends? Or is the Lidstrom comparison not looking horrible enough?

 

[Hit the post]

It’s the same wait-and-see fence-sitting we saw from management apologists (and naive optimists) when Schroeder, White etc. were clearly lagging behind the expected development curve and tracking to bust.

Schroeder still managed to get in 31 NHL games in his 4th year as a pro where to team was still fairly competative (finished for tied for 7th overall in the league). A bust to be sure but compare that to a guy that can't crack a lottery pick team. Still, let's see how the guy plays in the NHL level first.

Hughes looks like he's NHL ready & I wouldn't be surprised if he sticks. I don't see Green having TWO rookies in the top six (particularly with this lineup). Barring a ton of injuries, I don't see Juolevi playing 30+ games for the Canucks next season.

 

[Fatass]

Daniel sedin scores 20 goals in his d2. Olli may get called up at some point in his d4 if everything goes perfect for him. Such a disgusting comparison - what do you have against the sedins? Until he plays his first NHL game (in possibly his d4 if everything goes perfect), can we not compare him to NHL legends? Or is the Lidstrom comparison not looking horrible enough?

Clearly Juiolevi was not the right pick. Most experts, and fans thought we should take Tkatchuk at the time. I think this is all a given. However, OJ could still become a top four, puck moving D man. I’m not expecting that he will, but for us to have a better than just average core after this rebuild he damned well better be.

 

[Scorvat]

It's also the same wait and see fence-sitting we saw when the Sedins were playing poorly at 20. Fence-sitting is the only reasonable approach when the alternatives are declaring him a bust or ignoring that he's lagging behind his development curve.

This is a horrible comparison

The Sedins were
A) in the NHL
B) scoring at a decent rate despite a lack of ice time
C) playing behind the West Coast Express
D) Had no attitude, or effort issues (arguably some of the hardest working players in the franchise)

Juolevi was struggling in the AHL defensively, despite getting heavily sheltered and had most of his points come off the pp. Since his draft year we have had numerous reports from fans in London, coaches in Finland, and the Canucks themselves that all spell that their is something wrong with how OJ plays the game: Too soft, lazy, lack of effort, not putting his body on the line etc.

I mean joulevi couldn't outplay Poo and other career AHLers how anyone can see him as top 4d is confusing

With his injuries added to all that, I just don't see how he is going to be a member of this core going forward.

We should give him the Hodgson treatment next year (sounds like they were doing it this year tbh) and try to see if we could sucker some dum gm who is looking at his WJC and draft pedigree

 

[bandwagonesque]

This is a horrible comparison

The Sedins were
A) in the NHL
B) scoring at a decent rate despite a lack of ice time
C) playing behind the West Coast Express
D) Had no attitude, or effort issues (arguably some of the hardest working players in the franchise)

Juolevi was struggling in the AHL defensively, despite getting heavily sheltered and had most of his points come off the pp. Since his draft year we have had numerous reports from fans in London, coaches in Finland, and the Canucks themselves that all spell that their is something wrong with how OJ plays the game: Too soft, lazy, lack of effort, not putting his body on the line etc.

I mean joulevi couldn't outplay Poo and other career AHLers how anyone can see him as top 4d is confusing

With his injuries added to all that, I just don't see how he is going to be a member of this core going forward.

We should give him the Hodgson treatment next year (sounds like they were doing it this year tbh) and try to see if we could sucker some dum gm who is looking at his WJC and draft pedigree

I'm obviously not comparing Juolevi to the Sedins as players. I'm pointing out the some players lag way behind their potential for long periods of time and generally face the same reactions. When the Sedins were scoring less than 0.5ppg at 22, with about the same scoring rates and ice time and more power play time than Trent Klatt and Trevor Letowski, people wanted them gone. I'm not saying Juolevi will achieve the same relative improvements, I'm saying that being on the fence makes sense when a player is 20 and struggling with certain parts of the game while displaying enormous potential in others. Juolevi is disappointing. Juolevi is a potential bust. He isn't a bust. He's 20.

 

[Motte and Bailey]

He has a big body, a big brain, good skating, good skills. Only bad thing is his injuries. I’m so excited to see what he can do at training camp.

 

[VanJack]

Seems ironic now that the Canucks will be out there in free agency scouring the landscape for a 'scoring winger' to play with Pettersson. And they had one sitting in their laps in Tkachuk, until they took Juolevi instead.

Fast forward three years, they're still looking at a remake of the blueline AND they still need more scoring on the wings. #$%# what gives?

 

[Scorvat]

I'm obviously not comparing Juolevi to the Sedins as players. I'm pointing out the some players lag way behind their potential for long periods of time and generally face the same reactions. When the Sedins were scoring less than 0.5ppg at 22, with about the same scoring rates and ice time and more power play time than Trent Klatt and Trevor Letowski, people wanted them gone. I'm not saying Juolevi will achieve the same relative improvements, I'm saying that being on the fence makes sense when a player is 20 and struggling with certain parts of the game while displaying enormous potential in others. Juolevi is disappointing. Juolevi is a potential bust. He isn't a bust. He's 20.

I got that, but my point was to show that Juolevi just has to many questions marks and warning signs that expecting some Sedin like or any major ascension to justify even being a top 20 pick in draft is unlikely. He is probably going to be a 5/6D pp specialist that will be in Europe before he's 30. We should be gauging his value this summer and then put him in position to inflate his stats to trade him for hopefully a good package.

 

[Phenomenon13]

I'm obviously not comparing Juolevi to the Sedins as players. I'm pointing out the some players lag way behind their potential for long periods of time and generally face the same reactions. When the Sedins were scoring less than 0.5ppg at 22, with about the same scoring rates and ice time and more power play time than Trent Klatt and Trevor Letowski, people wanted them gone. I'm not saying Juolevi will achieve the same relative improvements, I'm saying that being on the fence makes sense when a player is 20 and struggling with certain parts of the game while displaying enormous potential in others. Juolevi is disappointing. Juolevi is a potential bust. He isn't a bust. He's 20.

That's an awful comparison either way.

The Sedins development trendline of development is extraordinarily rare and they never once trended down. I don't even know if you can say they lagged behind when they made the NHL in their D+2 season and members of their fellow draft class Patrick Stefan (1st Overall), Pavel Brendl (4th Overall) and Tim Connolly (5th Overall) weren't further ahead of the Sedins in terms of development in their D+2 and D+3 seasons. They kept up pace with their fellow draft class members and were trending fine in terms of development.


If you look at Juolevi, he is the only player drafted in the top 10 of the 2016 not to have played a single NHL game. He isn't just lagging behind his potential, he's lagging behind his peers in terms of development. Juolevi has been passed by his fellow peers in the 2016 draft.

Defenseman drafted in the 1st round of the 2016 draft:
Juolevi (5th Overall)
Sergachev (9th Overall)
Bean (13th Overall)
McAvoy (14th Overall)
Fabbro (17th Overall)
Stanley (18th Overall)
Cholowski (20th Overall)
Johansen (28th Overall)

At this point in time, I'd argue Juolevi is only ahead of Stanley and Johansen. Every other defenseman in that list is better or has proven more than Juolevi right now. You could not have said that about the Sedins.

 

[bandwagonesque]

That's an awful comparison either way.

The Sedins development trendline of development is extraordinarily rare and they never once trended down. I don't even know if you can say they lagged behind when they made the NHL in their D+2 season and members of their fellow draft class Patrick Stefan (1st Overall), Pavel Brendl (4th Overall) and Tim Connolly (5th Overall) weren't further ahead of the Sedins in terms of development in their D+2 and D+3 seasons. They kept up pace with their fellow draft class members and were trending fine in terms of development.


If you look at Juolevi, he is the only player drafted in the top 10 of the 2016 not to have played a single NHL game. He isn't just lagging behind his potential, he's lagging behind his peers in terms of development. Juolevi has been passed by his fellow peers in the 2016 draft.

Defenseman drafted in the 1st round of the 2016 draft:
Juolevi (5th Overall)
Sergachev (9th Overall)
Bean (13th Overall)
McAvoy (14th Overall)
Fabbro (17th Overall)
Stanley (18th Overall)
Cholowski (20th Overall)
Johansen (28th Overall)

At this point in time, I'd argue Juolevi is only ahead of Stanley and Johansen. Every other defenseman in that list is better or has proven more than Juolevi right now. You could not have said that about the Sedins.

It was a poor choice of comparison, I agree -- it was bound to tempt posters like you into constructing increasingly ambitious digressions that don't have much to do with what I'm talking about. Juolevi is 20 and has displayed a lot of skill, and put up a lot of points in the AHL. He's a disappointment by any measure considering his draft position, but he isn't a bust, and failing to declare him one doesn't necessarily correspond with any particular ideology regarding management. It happens to do so at the moment as an adjunct to entrenched views in search of evidence to support themselves.

 

[Phenomenon13]

It was a poor choice of comparison, I agree -- it was bound to tempt posters like you into constructing increasingly ambitious digressions that don't have much to do with what I'm talking about. Juolevi is 20 and has displayed a lot of skill, and put up a lot of points in the AHL. He's a disappointment by any measure considering his draft position, but he isn't a bust, and failing to declare him one doesn't necessarily correspond with any particular ideology regarding management. It happens to do so at the moment as an adjunct to entrenched views in search of evidence to support themselves.

I fully understand what you're talking about. Your entire point about lagging behind potential as the reason he is so disappointing however, it doesn't take into account of his fellow peers.

I've never once brought up management. I have no idea what sort of accusations or claims you're alluding to. Do you just like to turn every prospect thread into a management one? Is this some kind of passion of yours? Is this some sort of new deflection tactic? I think you've misread the entire premise of my post.

 

[BeardyCanuck03]

It’s 3 full seasons since he’s been drafted. How much patience is honestly needed? His peers have completely passed him over. Players drafted years after him have passed him by, his teammates have passed him on the depth chart. NCAA free agents who were never drafted have now also passed him over. Honestly how much patience is needed here?
Like really, what is an honest legit potential ceiling for this kid to the “hold out hopes”?

Had it been 3 full seasons without 2 major injuries, I'd be be fully on board with you.

I'm giving Juolevi till the end of this upcoming season. If he gets another injury or fails to get significant NHL time by this time next year, it's fair to break out the bust label

 

[BeardyCanuck03]

There is a huge difference between fence-sitting on guys actually playing usefully in the NHL at age 20 and guys struggling in the AHL at the same age.

It shouldn’t be that hard to admit that this player is tracking very poorly right now.

Had Juolevi played a whole season in the AHL, I'd be on board with your assessment. He hasn't and needs it.

 

[AwesomeInTheory]

Had Juolevi played a whole season in the AHL, I'd be on board with your assessment. He hasn't and needs it.

Like or not, injuries factor into a player's development. That is part of why he is tracking poorly.

 

[Scorvat]

Had it been 3 full seasons without 2 major injuries, I'd be be fully on board with you.

I'm giving Juolevi till the end of this upcoming season. If he gets another injury or fails to get significant NHL time by this time next year, it's fair to break out the bust label

These injuries are going to have/had an impact to the player he is going to be. A major back injury and knee injury back-to-back is a death sentence for an older player's career, so atleast he has that going for him, but these injuries undoubtedly are going to severely influence his career going forward. The best we can hope for is that he becomes an offensive minded #4/5 D, but there is even risk in him reaching that smh, so if we can get good value for him we should jump at that

 

[BeardyCanuck03]

Had Juolevi played a whole season in the AHL, I'd be on board with your assessment. He hasn't and needs it.

Which is why I'm giving him one more season to show what he can or can't do.

 

[Josepho]

These injuries are going to have/had an impact to the player he is going to be. A major back injury and knee injury back-to-back is a death sentence for an older player's career, so atleast he has that going for him, but these injuries undoubtedly are going to severely influence his career going forward. The best we can hope for is that he becomes an offensive minded #4/5 D, but there is even risk in him reaching that smh, so if we can get good value for him we should jump at that

Yeah.

It's not really Olli's fault and it's pretty rotten luck but a player who has had two major surgeries in a 1 year span absolutely is a cause for concern.

 

[I am toxic]

We CANNOT project Juolevi to be a bust.

We CAN project him into our top 4.

We CANNOT use several seasons of evidence and reason to point out Juolevi is projecting to be a bust.

We CAN claim in the future that it is only with hindsight anyone could predict Juolevi busts.


Drafting BPA is hard!