Oilers Playoff Magic Number

[rboomercat90]

When was the last time a team was able to:

REMOVE 4TH LINE AND REPLACE WITH 1ST LINE

REMOVE 6TH DEFENSEMAN AND REPLACE WITH BEST D (truly a #2/3D, but...)

For the 2nd half of the season?

TOPPEP willing

When is Klefbom coming back?

 

[Replacement*]

It was meant to be a silly remark, obviously. My sarcasm sometimes gets lost on the elderly.

Your critic was that you "don't follow what the chart means in terms of "magic" wins and pts". Seems like it was too complex.

But in all seriousness I agree with you that this metric isn't very valuable until the last month or so of the season. Its still easy to comprehend though.

Theres a difference between not understanding the concept of wins/losses required to get a spot and not understanding a chart that is not fully explained given the context of a multi team playoff position battle.

In anycase my question had more to do with how little relevance there was in counting wins and losses of us and the team inhabiting 3rd place when in fact several teams are competing for that one spot. If anything that's what makes this metric entirely meaningless at this point.

 

[Oil Gauge]

Theres a difference between not understanding the concept of wins/losses required to get a spot and not understanding a chart that is not fully explained given the context of a multi team playoff position battle.

In anycase my question had more to do with how little relevance there was in counting wins and losses of us and the team inhabiting 3rd place when in fact several teams are competing for that one spot. If anything that's what makes this metric entirely meaningless at this point.

So what you are telling me is that you finally had your grandson explain it to you?

 

[The Head Crusher]

Yeah you should simplify this for the older folk. Basic math confuses them.

Every point gained by the oilers removes a point from every team, every point one of the other pacific division teams loses removes a point from that specific team.

 

[Jumptheshark]

Every point gained by the oilers removes a point from every team, every point one of the other pacific division teams loses removes a point from that specific team.

unless it is an overtime game where everyone gets atleast one point

all overtime game played by the guys a head of us hurts us greatly

 

[The Head Crusher]

Jan 13, 2016

Pos | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | ROW | Magic Number in Points | Magic Number in Wins | Oil to Beat in Pts | Oil to Beat in W
1 | Los Angeles | 42 | 27 | 12 | 3 | 57 | 24 | 70 | 35 | 100 | 50.0
2 | Arizona | 42 | 22 | 16 | 4 | 48 | 21 | 79 | 39.5 | 91 | 45.5
3 | San Jose | 41 | 21 | 18 | 2 | 44 | 18 | 83 | 41.5 | 89 | 44.5
4 | Vancouver | 43 | 17 | 16 | 10 | 44 | 13 | 83 | 41.5 | 85 | 42.5
5 | Anaheim | 41 | 17 | 17 | 7 | 41 | 15 | 86 | 43 | 86 | 43.0
6 | Calgary | 41 | 19 | 20 | 2 | 40 | 18 | 87 | 43.5 | 85 | 42.5
7 | Edmonton | 44 | 17 | 23 | 4 | 38 | 14 | 89 | 44.5 | 77 | 38.5

This magic number is set up to be 1 point above the team in 3rd place. The Oil to beat columns indicate how many points and wins (ties=.5 wins) the Oilers need to get or the corresponding team needs to lose for the Oilers to pass them. As the season draws closer to the end I will begin to indicate who hold tie breaker over each other.

Yesterday games:
San Jose vs Winnipeg - San Jose Wins (No Change)
Edmonton vs Arizona - Arizona win in OT (Every teams O2B PTS -1, O2B WINS -0.5)


Todays Games to watch out for:
Florida vs Calgary
Ottawa vs Anaheim

 

[SoftDumps]

Thanks for doing this Crusher, I've actually always liked this metric. Sure it's more useful late season but it's a very easy concept to understand. Catching flak for posting it doesn't demean the quality of your work, there are those who appreciate the effort. Kudos and keep the updates rolling.

 

[bone]

Thanks for doing this Crusher, I've actually always liked this metric. Sure it's more useful late season but it's a very easy concept to understand. Catching flak for posting it doesn't demean the quality of your work, there are those who appreciate the effort. Kudos and keep the updates rolling.

Yes. I'm sorry if my post was demeaning in any way, Kudos on doing the work. Hopefully the Oilers make a run sometime soon so that I can keep track on this thread later on in the year.

One year I did a similar thing for the lotto pick on a spreadsheet, but I'm so over doing that.

 

[The Head Crusher]

Thanks for doing this Crusher, I've actually always liked this metric. Sure it's more useful late season but it's a very easy concept to understand. Catching flak for posting it doesn't demean the quality of your work, there are those who appreciate the effort. Kudos and keep the updates rolling.

Yes. I'm sorry if my post was demeaning in any way, Kudos on doing the work. Hopefully the Oilers make a run sometime soon so that I can keep track on this thread later on in the year.

One year I did a similar thing for the lotto pick on a spreadsheet, but I'm so over doing that.

Thanks guys and everyone else, I know it seems like it doesn't tell us much at this point, but I am. And like bone I also remember doing a lotto pick magic number for a 1 season.

 

[Replacement*]

So what you are telling me is that you finally had your grandson explain it to you?

After he showed me how to stoke the internet and turn the steampunk computer on..

 

[Jumptheshark]

what is the magic number for relegation

 

[The Head Crusher]

what is the magic number for relegation

Oh you crazy brits and your relegation

 

[Mctryoshka Rebuild]

After he showed me how to stoke the internet and turn the steampunk computer on..

Watch out for the handcrank on the hardrive. They pack a whollop.

 

[Stoneman89]

Sorry, just to clarify. Is this thread about the odds to make the playoffs, or the magic # before we're eliminated?

 

[The Head Crusher]

Sorry, just to clarify. Is this thread about the odds to make the playoffs, or the magic # before we're eliminated?

Playoffs, but if 3 or 4 teams magic number reaches 0 before the oilers then we are eliminated.

Tonight's Magic number will be really late today, work was busy and followed by dentist appointment.

 

[Replacement*]

Playoffs, but if 3 or 4 teams magic number reaches 0 before the oilers then we are eliminated.

Tonight's Magic number will be really late today, work was busy and followed by dentist appointment.

If its a root canal sounds almost like the pain experienced watching Oiler games lately.

cheers

heres hoping they do some magic today.

 

[The Head Crusher]

If its a root canal sounds almost like the pain experienced watching Oiler games lately.

cheers

heres hoping they do some magic today.

Last about as long as an oilers game as well.

 

[RoboNerdOK]

If I have to hear us referred to as the "Pathetic Division" one more time -- but then I look at those points and wonder if there will be even one team from our division to slide into the wild card slots given the Central division's record so far.

 

[The Head Crusher]

Jan 16, 2016

Pos | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | ROW | Magic Number in Points | Magic Number in Wins | Oil to Beat in Pts | Oil to Beat in W
1 | Los Angeles | 42 | 27 | 12 | 3 | 57 | 25 | 70 | 35 | 99 | 49.5
2 | Arizona | 43 | 22 | 16 | 5 | 49 | 22 | 78 | 39 | 89 | 44.5
3 | San Jose | 42 | 22 | 18 | 2 | 46 | 20 | 81 | 40.5 | 88 | 44.0
4 | Vancouver | 45 | 18 | 17 | 10 | 46 | 15 | 81 | 40.5 | 82 | 41.0
5 | Anaheim | 43 | 19 | 17 | 7 | 45 | 17 | 82 | 41 | 85 | 42.5
6 | Calgary | 42 | 20 | 20 | 2 | 42 | 19 | 85 | 42.5 | 84 | 42.0
7 | Edmonton | 45 | 17 | 23 | 5 | 39 | 14 | 88 | 44 | -- | --

This magic number is set up to be 1 point above the team in 3rd place. The Oil to beat columns indicate how many points and wins (ties=.5 wins) the Oilers need to get or the corresponding team needs to lose for the Oilers to pass them. As the season draws closer to the end I will begin to indicate who hold tie breaker over each other.

Yesterday games:
Carolina vs Vancouver - Vancouver wins 3-2 in OT (No Change)
Dallas vs Anaheim - Anaheim Wins 4-2 (No Change)

Todays Games to watch out for:
Ottawa vs Los Angeles
New Jersey vs Arizona
Edmonton vs Calgary
Dallas vs San Jose

 

[The Head Crusher]

Jan 17, 2016

Pos | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | ROW | Magic Number in Points | Magic Number in Wins | Oil to Beat in Pts | Oil to Beat in W
1 | Los Angeles | 43 | 27 | 13 | 3 | 57 | 25 | 70 | 35 | 95 | 47.5
2 | Arizona | 44 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 49 | 22 | 78 | 39 | 85 | 42.5
3 | San Jose | 43 | 23 | 18 | 2 | 48 | 20 | 79 | 39.5 | 86 | 43.0
4 | Vancouver | 45 | 18 | 17 | 10 | 46 | 15 | 81 | 40.5 | 80 | 40.0
5 | Anaheim | 43 | 19 | 17 | 7 | 45 | 17 | 82 | 41 | 83 | 41.5
6 | Calgary | 43 | 20 | 20 | 3 | 43 | 19 | 84 | 42 | 81 | 40.5
7 | Edmonton | 46 | 18 | 23 | 5 | 41 | 14 | 86 | 43 | --| --

This magic number is set up to be 1 point above the team in 3rd place. The Oil to beat columns indicate how many points and wins (ties=.5 wins) the Oilers need to get or the corresponding team needs to lose for the Oilers to pass them. As the season draws closer to the end I will begin to indicate who hold tie breaker over each other.

Yesterday games:
Ottawa vs Los Angeles - 5-3 Sens (ANA: O2B PTS -2, OT2 W -1)
New Jersey vs Arizona 2-0 NJ (ARI: O2B PTS -2, OTB W -1)
Edmonton vs Calgary 2-1 EDM SO (CAL: O2B PTS -1, OTB W -0.5 ; PAC. DIV: OTB PTS -2, OTB W -1)
Dallas vs San Jose 4-3 SJ OT (NO CHANGE)

Todays Games to watch out for:
Vancouver vs New York Islanders
Los Angeles vs Anaheim

 

[McJadeddog]

When is Klefbom coming back?

2016, likely Q4

 

[McJadeddog]

so according to head crusher's latest numbers we need to play .625 hockey for the rest of the season to squeak in, lol.... wow, considering we've been playing .446 so far, me THINKS that this might be somewhat difficult

 

[Yeah15]

so according to head crusher's latest numbers we need to play .625 hockey for the rest of the season to squeak in, lol.... wow, considering we've been playing .446 so far, me THINKS that this might be somewhat difficult

Yeah, if Klefbom was coming back around the return of McDavid... then maybe. But with the recent news that Klefbom looks far away, I'd say it's around 0%.

 

[The Head Crusher]

Jan 18, 2016

Pos | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | ROW | Magic Number in Points | Magic Number in Wins | Oil to Beat in Pts | Oil to Beat in W
1 | Los Angeles | 44 | 28 | 13 | 3 | 59 | 26 | 68 | 34 | 95 | 47.5
2 | Arizona | 44 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 49 | 22 | 78 | 39 | 85 | 42.5
3 | San Jose | 43 | 23 | 18 | 2 | 48 | 20 | 79 | 39.5 | 86 | 43.0
4 | Vancouver | 46 | 19 | 17 | 10 | 48 | 15 | 79 | 39.5 | 80 | 40.0
5 | Anaheim | 44 | 19 | 18 | 7 | 45 | 17 | 82 | 41 | 81 | 40.5
6 | Calgary | 43 | 20 | 20 | 3 | 43 | 19 | 84 | 42 | 81 | 40.5
7 | Edmonton | 46 | 18 | 23 | 5 | 41 | 14 | 86 | 43 | --| --

This magic number is set up to be 1 point above the team in 3rd place. The Oil to beat columns indicate how many points and wins (ties=.5 wins) the Oilers need to get or the corresponding team needs to lose for the Oilers to pass them. As the season draws closer to the end I will begin to indicate who hold tie breaker over each other.

Yesterday games:
Vancouver vs New York Islanders 2-1 SO VAN (no change)
Los Angeles vs Anaheim 3-2 LA (ANA: O2B PTS -2, O2B W -1)

Todays Games to watch out for:
Edmonton vs Florida
Buffalo vs Arizona
Ottawa vs San Jose

 

[Aceboogie]

Good news- Oilers are 7 points out in mid Jan and getting a MASSIVE boost with McDavid and Klefbom coming back. To add to this- Eberle is slowly turning it around, as is RNH. Yak is 2 games in and looking good. Our top 6 could be lethal if everyone turns it on

Bad news- San Jose, Anahiem, Arizona are all on fire and the Canucks just wont die (Sedin is out for a bit tho). The Ducks have awoken, so consider that 2nd spot gone