Toggle sidebar

Oilers Playoff Magic Number

The Head Crusher

The Head Crusher

Re-retired
Jan 3, 2008
16,712
2,067
Edmonton
We have reached the half way mark of the season and for the first time since 07/08 that we have a chance to make the playoffs (finished 9th and missed by 3 points). For the rest of the season i am going to be keeping track of the Oilers magic number in order to make the playoffs. Yes I know we are in 7th place of the division and the central is likely going to take the wild card spots, but as of today we are only 5 points out of that last playoff spot.

Pos | Team | GP | W | L | OTL | PTS | ROW | Magic Number in Points | Magic Number in Wins | Oil to Beat in Pts | Oil to Beat in W
1 | Los Angeles | 41 | 26 | 12 | 3 | 55 | 24 | 68 | 34 | 101 | 50.5
2 | Arizona | 41 | 21 | 16 | 4 | 46 | 21 | 77 | 38.5 | 92 | 46.0
3 | Vancouver | 42 | 16 | 16 | 10 | 42 | 13 | 81 | 40.5 | 86 | 43.0
4 | Anaheim | 40 | 17 | 16 | 7 | 41 | 15 | 82 | 41 | 89 | 44.5
5 | San Jose | 39 | 19 | 18 | 2 | 40 | 18 | 83 | 41.5 | 90 | 45.0
6 | Calgary | 40 | 19 | 19 | 2 | 40 | 18 | 83 | 41.5 | 88 | 44.0
7 | Edmonton | 42 | 17 | 22 | 3 | 37 | 14 | 86 | 43 | -- | --

This magic number is set up to be 1 point above the team in 3rd place. The Oil to beat columns indicate how many points and wins (ties=.5 wins) the Oilers need to get or the corresponding team needs to lose for the Oilers to pass them. As the season draws closer to the end I will begin to indicate who hold tie breaker over each other.

Today's games to watch for:

Oilers vs Panthers
Ducks vs Red Wings
Click to read more...
 
Last edited:
Replacement*

Replacement*

Checked out
Apr 15, 2005
48,856
2
Hiking
Perhaps because I'm not familiar with this type of metric but I don't follow what the chart means in terms of "magic" wins and pts. Shouldn't it be Wins and Pts required from here on in? No idea what the charted numbers mean.

In anycase its very misleading to just state we are 5 pts out. That is inaccurate. All of Calgary, Anaheim, SJ have multiple games in hand and are playing better than us.

We have also just screwed up another homestand and are headed out on the road where our record is poor.

We also have a poor divisional record.

Playoffs? Forget it.
 
The Head Crusher

The Head Crusher

Re-retired
Jan 3, 2008
16,712
2,067
Edmonton
Replacement said:
Perhaps because I'm not familiar with this type of metric but I don't follow what the chart means in terms of "magic" wins and pts. Shouldn't it be Wins and Pts required from here on in? No idea what the charted numbers mean.

In anycase its very misleading to just state we are 5 pts out. That is inaccurate. All of Calgary, Anaheim, SJ have multiple games in hand and are playing better than us.

We have also just screwed up another homestand and are headed out on the road where our record is poor.

We also have a poor divisional record.

Playoffs? Forget it.
Click to expand...




;)

But to answer your question about the metric it is not just the win and OTL points from your team, but also the loses and OTL points from the team sitting in third place. Every time The Oilers win or gain a point from a OT or Shootout lose it goes towards their magic numbers (1 point =0.5 wins), like wise if the team in 3rd place loses a game or points via OT or Shootout lose then it also goes towards the oilers magic number.

Example: Since Vancouver lost in OT last night every team gained 1 point off their magic number in point (0.5 in wins). Also since Arizona won last night their magic number in points went down by 2 on top of that. So for Arizona they lost 3 points or 1.5 games off their magic numbers.


Also Calgary and San Jose are below .500 vs our division and Vancouver has so many OTL that they will likely lose any ROW match up. Is it going to be easy no, but it is possible......TOPPEP willing.
 

doulos

Registered User
Oct 4, 2007
7,725
1,235
Thanks for posting this. Hopefully when the team gets a couple of their big guns back they can start crawling up that chart.
 
Mc5RingsAndABeer

Mc5RingsAndABeer

5-14-6-1
May 25, 2011
20,184
1,385
Thanks for compiling this. We need to start racking up the wins to chip away at that deficit. I fear we will be a playoff calibre team when everyone is healthy but run out of games trying to catch up.
 
Last edited:
Replacement*

Replacement*

Checked out
Apr 15, 2005
48,856
2
Hiking
The Head Crusher said:


;)

But to answer your question about the metric it is not just the win and OTL points from your team, but also the loses and OTL points from the team sitting in third place. Every time The Oilers win or gain a point from a OT or Shootout lose it goes towards their magic numbers (1 point =0.5 wins), like wise if the team in 3rd place loses a game or points via OT or Shootout lose then it also goes towards the oilers magic number.

Example: Since Vancouver lost in OT last night every team gained 1 point off their magic number in point (0.5 in wins). Also since Arizona won last night their magic number in points went down by 2 on top of that. So for Arizona they lost 3 points or 1.5 games off their magic numbers.


Also Calgary and San Jose are below .500 vs our division and Vancouver has so many OTL that they will likely lose any ROW match up. Is it going to be easy no, but it is possible......TOPPEP willing.
Click to expand...


That metric makes absolutely no sense considering that 4 teams vying for the last position are ahead of us.

So that its not just what games Vancouver loses or wins but also Anaheim, Calgary, SJ.

In any case the Oilers with games in hand factored in are more like 9pts out of a playoff spot and with multiple teams in a much better spot to get that spot than us.

The perhaps misleading thing is the current placeholder of the spot, the Nucks, have a worse record than 3 of the teams *behind them* that are vying for a spot but that have games in hand.

A better analysis would be simply a GBL metric such as in baseball. Except in this case a Games behind wildcard.
 
The Head Crusher

The Head Crusher

Re-retired
Jan 3, 2008
16,712
2,067
Edmonton
Replacement said:
That metric makes absolutely no sense considering that 4 teams vying for the last position are ahead of us.

So that its not just what games Vancouver loses or wins but also Anaheim, Calgary, SJ.

In any case the Oilers with games in hand factored in are more like 9pts out of a playoff spot and with multiple teams in a much better spot to get that spot than us.

The perhaps misleading thing is the current placeholder of the spot, the Nucks, have a worse record than 3 of the teams *behind them* that are vying for a spot but that have games in hand.

A better analysis would be simply a GBL metric such as in baseball. Except in this case a Games behind wildcard.
Click to expand...

If you would like I can add that in as well. It will look alot like the Magic number in wins as Wins and loses would count as full games while OLT would count as half games. Or if you want a more traditional style like the MLB it would be wins and loses are half games and OTL would be Quarter games.

But it is not also SJ, Calgary and Anaheim win loses that effect the Oilers magic number, just their own. Basically what the magic number states is the number of point the oiler need to win or the team in 3rd place (in this case currently Vancouver) need to lose in order for Edmonton to jump over them and Vancouver not being able to over take them again. So if Vancouver were to be able to win all their remaining games then the Oilers would need to get 86 points to finish 1 point ahead of Vancouver. No right now that is not possible, but every time Vancouver loses a point it brings that point total down, just like every time the Oilers earn points.

Though I get what you are saying if Anaheim, SJ and Calgary were to have played the same number of games they could potentially have more points then the Canucks right now which would make the marker of Vancouver lower then what we actually need, but until those teams actually earn those points I can not award it to them. As the season goes on I will be adjusting the marker team and points accordingly and making any adjustments to the formula that may need to be made.
 
Last edited:
The Head Crusher

The Head Crusher

Re-retired
Jan 3, 2008
16,712
2,067
Edmonton
The Games back is a little difficult and a bit redundant to run for the NHL give the loser points because some teams who currently do not hold a playoff spot are ahead of teams that do because of a large number of loser points they have, so what I have added in is 2 new column that are specifically for the Oilers to beat the corresponding teams.

So for example for the Oilers to finish 1 point ahead of the kings the need to get or LA needs to lose a combined 101 points. For the Oilers to finish 1 point ahead of the Flames, then they need to earn or Calgary needs to lose a combined 88 points.

I hope that is a little more to your liking Replacement.
 
MoneyGuy

MoneyGuy

Wandering
Oct 19, 2009
6,987
1,372
No playoffs for us this year. It's always been 2017, in my opinion.

I guess that puts me on the PPL, too.
 
KlaireMcVoyant

KlaireMcVoyant

Registered User
Nov 20, 2014
108
7
YEG
I appreciate the time and effort that you've taken to put this up. Who really knows? We may go down to the wire if we put together any semblance of a sustained winning streak, or conversely, it may be over in short order. Either way, I will be watching this with interest. Many thanks.
 

Mowzie

Registered User
Sep 17, 2003
9,966
2,030
I don't need stats anymore, this is a bottom 5 team. In no way, shape or form does this team have what it takes to be in the playoff picture when it matters.
 
Jepprey

Jepprey

Creeper
May 25, 2006
6,919
1,844
Thanks for this. Never thought we would have made the playoffs at the start of the season, but they're still in striking distance with half the season to go. Can't blame some people for feeling optimistic once McDavid, Klefbom and Yakupov are all healthy.

The last month or so has been real bad. Many home games lost. Many divisional games lost.

With that said...


"Playoffs? I just hope we can win a game."
 
McPuritania

McPuritania

LucicDestroyedHaley
May 25, 2010
25,636
7
Toussaint
Jepprey said:
Thanks for this. Never thought we would have made the playoffs at the start of the season, but they're still in striking distance with half the season to go. Can't blame some people for feeling optimistic once McDavid, Klefbom and Yakupov are all healthy.

The last month or so has been real bad. Many home games lost. Many divisional games lost.

With that said...


"Playoffs? I just hope we can win a game."
Click to expand...


I was disheartened to see no one posted that video, I was about to. Glad you did, Jepprey. It's the Oilers tag line.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Ad

Latest posts

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

Top Bottom