News Article: Oilers "culture change" a big reason for historic start

[guymez]

So your summation is what exactly? McDavid and Draisaitl don't give a 100%?

I would say that's patently false, there's no two players that exert more of themselves for their team in the modern NHL period.

If that's not good enough to get wins, then the problem is the team around them.

I am saying that McDavids and Draisaitls lack of defensive awareness has nothing to do with not being able to put in the effort. Its all about awareness and understanding what to do in the D zone.
This has been a problem for a few years now. They look lost in their own zone too much of the time.
It has to do with becoming more responsible and committing to the D zone because its very important and if they dont do that this team wont win.
I am not saying that they have to be perfect defensive players or even great defensive players but their current level of ineptitude is unacceptable.
They have to be better. They have to be at least average in their own zone.

 

[Soundwave]

I am saying that McDavids and Draisaitls lack of defensive awareness has nothing to do with not being able to put in the effort.
This has been a problem for a few years now.
It has to do with becoming more responsible and committing to the D zone because its very important and if they dont do that this team wont win.
I am not saying that they have to be perfect defensive players but their current level of ineptitude is unacceptable.
They have to be better.

I don't think this is magically unrelated to other issues.

They're not doing that because they don't care, they're doing it because in the back of their mind they know they don't have the team support offensively so they have to press more on that side of the ice.

That's going to lead to less energy left over to play D. Playing D is not a picnic, you need to have a good amount of energy and gas in your legs to battle back there, that's not always going to be there when you've run yourself ragged on the other side of the ice.

And no one complains when they single handedly win games offensively.

They're also 22/23 ... which great forwards were defensive studs at that age.

The reality is actually one the Oilers have to accept ... when you have players like this, you build an offensive minded team for them to play on.

A Wayne Gretzky at age 22/23 you're not going to be able to be successful by telling him to tone down the offence. It's not a realistic ask, find me examples of other top players at that age that did that. It's not something that happens in the history of the sport.

You don't tell players like this to alter their games. You build a team around them that supports their style of play. If you have a McDavid, you need to be building an offensive squad. This franchise is the only one that still struggles with this concept 5 years in.

Nothing will change in this respect until Holland gets an actual secondary scoring line that McDavid/Draisaitl can trust in.

 

[guymez]

I don't think this is magically unrelated to other issues.

They're not doing that because they don't care, they're doing it because in the back of their mind they know they don't have the team support offensively so they have to press more on that side of the ice.

That's going to lead to less energy left over to play D. Playing D is not a picnic, you need to have a good amount of energy and gas in your legs to battle back there, that's not always going to be there when you've run yourself ragged on the other side of the ice.

And no one complains when they single handedly win games offensively.

They're also 22/23 ... which great forwards were defensive studs at that age.

The reality is actually one the Oilers have to accept ... when you have players like this, you build an offensive minded team for them to play on.

A Wayne Gretzky at age 22/23 you're not going to be able to be successful by telling him to tone down the offence. It's not a realistic ask, find me examples of other top players at that age that did that. It not present in the history of the game.

Sorry...I am not buying this bolded at all. Its a cop out. I dont believe for a minute that these players have that level of quit in them.
Standing beside and marking a player in front of the net in the D zone is not hard...it just takes awareness and the commitment to do it.
I think that this is more than anything an awareness problem. Bad habits have been allowed to take root since they got here...its time for that to change.
They are leaders on this team....they have to set an example.

So I do agree that their age matters but you are conflating inexperience with excuses for why they dont have to be defensively responsible. As I said they have developed some bad habits...this whole team has.
I think Tippett has done something long overdue and is holding evry player responsible when necessary.

Again...for Drai and McDavid its not about being a great defensive player...its about being an average defensive player at the very least.
They arent there at this point in time and they arent alone.
For example RNH has to improve. Kassian has to improve.
It has to be a team initiative with no exceptions.

Its an old and often over used line but its true...Excuses really are for losers.

 

[Soundwave]

Sorry...I am not buying this bolded at all. Its a cop out. I dont believe for a minute that these players have that level of quit in them.
Skating beside and marking a player is not hard...it just takes awareness and the commitment to do it.
I think that this is more than anything an awareness problem. Bad habits have been allowed to take root since they got here...its time for that to change.
They are leaders on this team....they have to set an example.

So I do agree that their age matters but you are conflating inexperience with excuses for why they dont have to be defensively responsible. As I said they have developed some bad habits...this whole team has.
I think Tippett has done something long overdue and is holding evry player responsible when necessary.

Again...for Drai and McDavid its not about being a great defensive player...its about being an average defensive player at the very least.
They arent there at this point in time and they arent alone.
For example RNH has to improve. Kassian has to improve.
It has to be a team initiative with no exceptions.

Excuses are for losers.

Expecting miracles from 2-3 players is basically par for the franchise ... what about the responsibility the team has to make an actual properly build hockey team?

It's easy to yell at a puppy for wetting the floor now and again, but when you keep that puppy locked inside all day and do all other sorts of stupid things as an owner and abdicate all responsibility as an owner you lose the privilege of turning around and saying "man what a terrible dog I have". No you're a dumb owner is really what's going on.

Keep constructing insanely poorly thought out rosters, then put incredible pressure on 2-3 young players and you're going to develop some bad habits as you leave them to hang out to dry.

Either the Oilers cannot build a team correctly or all of McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH, Hall, Eberle, Yakupov, Gagner, Cogliano, Schultz, Paajarvi, Puljujarvi, Klefbom, Nurse, Bear, Petry, etc. (three separate rebuilds worth of players) etc. are all terrible people that don't give a crap about defence.

Gee let me think which of those two are more likely.

Until the dynamic of this team doesn't shift away from "Connor and Leon please carry 95% of our offence in any game we win", the general dynamics are never going to shift for this iteration. That much I would bank a lot of money on. Get to work Holland.

 

[guymez]

Expecting miracles from 2-3 players is basically par for the franchise ... what about the responsibility the team has to make an actual properly build hockey team?

It's easy to yell at a puppy for wetting the floor now and again, but when you keep that puppy locked inside all day and do all other sorts of stupid things as an owner and abdicate all responsibility as an owner you lose the privilege of turning around and saying "man what a terrible dog I have". No you're a dumb owner is really what's going on.

Keep constructing insanely poorly thought out rosters, then put incredible pressure on 2-3 young players and you're going to develop some bad habits as you leave them to hang out to dry.

Either the Oilers cannot build a team correctly or all of McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH, Hall, Eberle, Yakupov, Gagner, Cogliano, Schultz, Paajarvi, Puljujarvi, Klefbom, Nurse, Bear, Petry, etc. (three separate rebuilds worth of players) etc. are terrible people that don't give a crap about defence.

Gee let me think which of those two are more likely.

Until the dynamic of this team doesn't shift away from "Connor and Leon please carry 95% of our offence in any game we win", the general dynamics are never going to shift for this iteration. That much I would bank a lot of money on.

I am becoming convinced that you arent bothering to read what I post.

This conversation really is becoming an exercise in frustration....its like you are arguing with your projection of what i am posting instead of what I have actually posted.

I am going to call it a night...have a good night.

 

[Soundwave]

I am becoming convinced that you arent bothering to read what I post.

This conversation really is becoming an exercise in frustration....its like you are arguing with your projection of what i am posting instead of what I have actually posted.

I am going to call it a night...have a good night.

There's an easy way to settle the conversation ... provide concrete examples of 22/23 year old superstar players that dramatically altered their game or were defensive powerhouses at that age.

It's not a thing. The Oilers can either accept that they're not going to be the freaking Arizona Coyotes and actually build a team that goes with the 4-5 good players they do have or they can keep banging their head up against this wall trying to simultaneously be some weird mix of an offensive team and a 2-1 grinder team. It doesn't work.

Go get Taylor Hall or whoever you need to get and go become at least the lesser man's version of the Penguins. This is not going to work long term otherwise. Holland is going to have to make a move sooner than later that brings in a legit big time forward (we knew this all along anyway), I think they should just stop wasting time and get it done.

 

[BudBundy]

You two just need to get a room and get it over with.

 

[McDNicks17]

Nonsense. I have heard Tippett say in the last few interviews that players are (all too often) missing assignments....making bad decisions.
He's right. That is the biggest problem right now.

The formula for this season was pretty obvious. Maximize the special teams play and break even 5x5. Until recently thats exactly what they were doing.
Its sustainable if the players do what they are supposed to do.

Rishaug - "Are you giving up more quality chances or making more mistakes than you were earlier than in the year?"

Tippett - Immediately shakes head. "No".

Rishaug - "Is there a notable difference?"

Tippett - "No. We were outscoring our mistakes early and our goaltending was very very good early. Every game is different, but in the last few, our chances against were down and we were still struggling to find ways to stay in the game."


Sure doesn't sound like he thinks the team has deviated from the system.

 

[HockeyGuy1964]

Rishaug - "Are you giving up more quality chances or making more mistakes than you were earlier than in the year?"

Tippett - Immediately shakes head. "No".

Rishaug - "Is there a notable difference?"

Tippett - "No. We were outscoring our mistakes early and our goaltending was very very good early. Every game is different, but in the last few, our chances against were down and we were still struggling to find ways to stay in the game."


Sure doesn't sound like he thinks the team has deviated from the system.

Get out of here with this ****. It's obvious that the coach of the Edmonton Oilers just isn't paying attention.

I doubt he even watches the games like the OP.

 

[9GWG9]

When Tippet said we were outscoring our mistakes he’s admitting just that, there is a lot of holes in their game. He’s doing his best with what he has and the EFFORT the players are willing to put in.

It’s tough to really see the game through the lens. It doesn’t pick up the guys flying the zone, not back checking, lazy line changes.

When do we pass it to a guy all alone in the slot and score?

We give them up all the time.....

 

[McDNicks17]

When Tippet said we were outscoring our mistakes he’s admitting just that, there is a lot of holes in their game. He’s doing his best with what he has and the EFFORT the players are willing to put in.

It’s tough to really see the game through the lens. It doesn’t pick up the guys flying the zone, not back checking, lazy line changes.

When do we pass it to a guy all alone in the slot and score?

We give them up all the time.....

In the same presser Tipp says there's lots of try in the group. They aren't feeling down, they're pushing hard and trying out there.


When the weaknesses are fairly obvious to the eye and the coach is explicitly pointing to those same weaknesses, I think it should be pretty easy to pinpoint those weaknesses without resorting to tinfoil hat theories like "culture".

 

[MaxR11]

If you go back and look at what I have posted so far I am suggesting that players have to be committed to try and give 100%. regardless of the situation.
I would suggest to you that every single successful NHL player has done that through their career.

The results and the level of success may vary due to circumstances that come up in a game and during a season (ie bumps and bruises...getting winded...etc) but to not try and give 100% is simply not being a professional.

As soon as you start suggesting that a player can only give 60% on defence when do you determine that its okay? If a player doesnt require to skate hard back into the D zone and isnt winded is it okay that he doesnt cover his man.
Do you just go...thats okay...you are only required to give a percentage of your effort on D.
What kind of message does that send to the rest of the team?

Surely you can see how that is an extremely flawed perspective doomed for team failure.

You are correct. I also was cautious about whether or not the culture change would be a permanent take but was hopeful these guys would finally learn and realize that they couldn't continue to play the wrong way and consistently win.

It's ridiculous to not expect connor and drai to play the right way all over the ice. They should be the example. Great teams (consistently) more often than not nowadays will have their best players play the right way d and offence. Or at least not as atrociously as drai and connor sometimes pay attention to defensive responsibilities. They can at LEAST not be regularily as horrendous as they have been recently. This team really struggles when Connor and Drai stuggle defensively. Last year and it's starting to show again this year.

There are many points i want to bring up in my post where i pasted snippets about culture and it's meaning but i'll just do one.....

"The culture of a company begins from the values, behaviours and decisions of an organisation’s leader (captain, top scorers, GM, coach, owner etc). If leaders are acting inappropriately and let unacceptable actions slide without discipline, this begins to normalise..... and trickle down. (this is how bad things done by few players can affect the WHOLE TEAM)"

This is a team effort. We shouldn't have different standards for different players for the basics, the team culture when it comes to hard work, effort, urgency, responsible and smart defensive focus and play.

It has been the culture here for far too long that there is this different standard that the point getters (starting with the Hall days) are allowed to slide in their defensive game and it's gotten us DFL/out of playoffs year after year after year. You look at a supreme talent like Datsyuk and how he's a beast in both ends of the ice. He's an example. If you, as a third line player, don't follow that lead, you can GTFO. The guy coulda probably been a perennial 100 pt man if he wanted to cheat and not be as great as he was defensively but valued his team defence and play moreso. Here now we have Drai constantly terrible in his d responsibility saying he wants to be a selke winner... well s***, if your best players are floating and being defensively terrible that mindset and standard trickles down to the rest of the team.

I mean WTF was drai doing on the second goal. he followed his man that scored but turned away from him and started up ice to CHEAT instead of staying with that man and ENSURING the play was safe and defended well. It's that mindset that's unacceptable. Defence secondary and cheat for offence mindset. It'll kill you eventually throughout the season.

Culture always starts top down. Managers, coaches, top players/leaders downwards. And i fear that if things dont change with the top players that holland and tips may just not be as patient and change the core as you say.....

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

As it turns out, it was just unsustainable percentages.

 

[guymez]

There's an easy way to settle the conversation ... provide concrete examples of 22/23 year old superstar players that dramatically altered their game or were defensive powerhouses at that age.

It's not a thing. The Oilers can either accept that they're not going to be the freaking Arizona Coyotes and actually build a team that goes with the 4-5 good players they do have or they can keep banging their head up against this wall trying to simultaneously be some weird mix of an offensive team and a 2-1 grinder team. It doesn't work.

Go get Taylor Hall or whoever you need to get and go become at least the lesser man's version of the Penguins. This is not going to work long term otherwise. Holland is going to have to make a move sooner than later that brings in a legit big time forward (we knew this all along anyway), I think they should just stop wasting time and get it done.

I dont have to provide examples because its obvious whats going on in the Oilers D zone.
The bottom line....if Draisaitl and McDavid dont improve their defensive play this team wont win even with Taylor Hall. Teams that play sloppy defence dont win. Period.

You have decided that excuses are the best means of dealing with this. My take is that excuses wont help this team win.

Drai and McDavid were an absolute joke in their own zone last night.
It was embarrassing.

 

[Soundwave]

I dont have to provide examples because its obvious whats going on in the Oilers D zone.
The bottom line....if Draisaitl and McDavid dont improve their defensive play this team wont win even with Taylor Hall. Teams that play sloppy defence dont win. Period.

You have decided that excuses are the best means of dealing with this. My take is that excuses wont help this team win.

Drai and McDavid were an absolute joke in their own zone last night.
It was embarrassing.

You can get into the playoffs with that style, you simply have to embrace it and stop trying to be some bizarre grind + skill team.

The Leafs have made the playoffs easily the last two years and even despite this year's struggles, they probably will find a way to get in again. Pittsburgh in the earlier years with Crosby/Malkin made the playoffs playing run n' gun hockey.

Also why are these two the only ones singled out? RNH basically turned away from a shot in the slot at one point to uh ... look at the goalie for no reason, that put the Oilers down 0-1 and had them chasing the game. I hate to say it too, but Ethan Bear was really brutal yesterday, but those games are inevitable from a rookie.

There's a lot of people here that love it when Connor/Leon win games and have no problems with the big minutes when the going is good, but you want to bail and have nothing to do with it and point fingers when it comes to dealing with the consequences of playing those two so hard. To me that's not fair either. It's fine and dandy so long as the going is good, but the moment a player who's being overplayed shows a little bit of a natural downturn the vultures jump all over him.

 

[guymez]

You can get into the playoffs with that style, you simply have to embrace it and stop trying to be some bizarre grind + skill team.

The Leafs have made the playoffs easily the last two years and even despite this year's struggles, they probably will find a way to get in again. Pittsburgh in the earlier years with Crosby/Malkin made the playoffs playing run n' gun hockey.

Also why are these two the only ones singled out? RNH basically turned away from a shot in the slot at one point to uh ... look at the goalie for no reason, that put the Oilers down 0-1 and had them chasing the game. I hate to say it too, but Ethan Bear was really brutal yesterday, but those games are inevitable from a rookie.

There's a lot of people here that love it when Connor/Leon win games and have no problems with the big minutes when the going is good, but you want to bail and have nothing to do with it and point fingers when it comes to dealing with the consequences of playing those two so hard. To me that's not fair either. It's fine and dandy so long as the going is good, but the moment a player who's being overplayed shows a little bit of a natural downturn the vultures jump all over him.

You went from excusing Draisaitl and McDavid's poor defensive play to questioning me on why I am singling them out. You actually are the one that brought up Draisaitl and McDavid. I just responded.

When I corner you on how or why you are so willing to makes excuses for both players you move the goalposts.

Case in point...I talk about how easy it is to mark a player in front of the net (all it takes is awareness) then you move the goalposts and talk about style and the Oilers becoming a grind team vs skill team.
I am simply talking about basic responsibility.

You talk about McDavid and Draisaitl only needing to put in 60% effort on D and when I question you about that you become diffuse.
I talk about sustainable minutes and you just ignore that on continue on like I never mentioned it at all.
Too much effort involved in following your misdirection here.

No hard feelings but I am moving on.

 

[Soundwave]

You went from excusing Draisaitl and McDavid's poor defensive play to questioning me on why I am singling them out. You actually are the one that brought up Draisaitl and McDavid. I just responded.

When I corner you on how or why you are so willing to makes excuses for both players you move the goalposts.

Case in point...I talk about how easy it is to mark a player in front of the net (all it takes is awareness) then you move the goalposts and talk about style and the Oilers becoming a grind team vs skill team.
I am simply talking about basic responsibility.

You talk about McDavid and Draisaitl only needing to put in 60% effort on D and when I question you about that you become diffuse.
I talk about sustainable minutes and you just ignore that on continue on like I never mentioned it at all.
Too much effort involved in following your misdirection here.

No hard feelings but I am moving on.

So basically they should play pretty close to perfect hockey (which no other offensive minded 22-25 year old in the league does)

Play more minutes than any other forward.

Have more pressure/responsibility for team success put on their shoulders because of incompetent team building.

Be responsible for 3 lines worth of offence

And there can be no allowance for any kind of fatigue or slippage on the defensive end over an 82 game season.

Yeah that sounds perfectly fair to me.

No other athlete in any pro sport I watch (NBA, NFL, MLB, also try and watch college basketball especially during March) has this much placed on their shoulders.

And for the large part they did this shit 90% of the time *anyway* with no complaints. And then the 10% of the time when things aren't going perfectly for them, people think they have a greenlight to jump all over them.

 

[guymez]

So basically they should play pretty close to perfect hockey (which no other offensive minded 22-25 year old in the league does)

Play more minutes than any other forward.

Have more pressure/responsibility for team success put on their shoulders because of incompetent team building.

Be responsible for 3 lines worth of offence

And there can be no allowance for any kind of fatigue or slippage on the defensive end over an 82 game season.

Yeah that sounds perfectly fair to me.

No other athlete in any pro sport I watch (NBA, NFL, MLB, also try and watch college basketball especially during March) has this much placed on their shoulders.

And for the large part they did this **** 90% of the time *anyway* with no complaints. And then the 10% of the time when things aren't going perfectly for them, people think they have a greenlight to jump all over them.

No...once again you have (in spectacular fashion) missed the point entirely and keep misrepresenting my position.

I am moving on.
Cheers.

 

[Suxnet]

The phrase "culture change" really takes me back. Remember the good ol' days under the decade of darkness? Remember Oil Change? Yeah, that show was pretty cringe. Hope we get another season soon.

 

[Supermassive]

As it turns out, it was just unsustainable percentages.

Yup. And the same goobers who credit “culture” for the wins are now dogging our stars for the losses.

Same as it ever was.

 

[oilerbear]

I developed repeated observations in the sports that I participated in. Football, Rugby, Soccer, Swimming, Ball.

As a high function autistic I applied these observation skills to identify multi variable (multi reason) human machine action to identify high win/ loss mechanism.

I have developed 50+ hockey theories. here are critical observations.

1. GA is the driver of championship competitiveness.

7 of 8 final 4 teams are top GA teams.
LAK won a cup with bottom 3 GF team.

2. Def of Homeplate in a 2D -1G structure is critical. (My Homeplate, Elite Homeplate Dmen, elite homeplate Fwd)
50+ yr ago as a very young child I observed the violence of Flin Flon bombers was about defending and attacking the area in front of the net.

Their are Elite homeplate Dmen who greatly reduce penetration and as a result targeting success to their side.
Differentiation to dmans individual side is critical.
Larsson, Benning, Manning. (Nurse above avg when playing with a more aggressive Rover)

3. open/closed shots theory: (table hockey goalie, hit goalie, 0% chance ( closed) Corsi, Elite closed Corsi Dmen, Elite open shot fwds)
45+ yr ago playing road hockey at Brewster Trailer Park in PA,
I noticed a younger Ron Gunville (Player Personel director WHL champ PA Raiders) move with the ball like a table hockey goalie.
-The ball hit him at a high rate.
-The ball had 0% chance of going in.
It was a closed shot.

0% Corsi = ( blocks + misses + closed shots)

JVB and Roy were the first goalies to consistently perform a full table hockey goalie movement.

Their are Elite Dmen who GEnerate a high % of closed Corsi. Languay, Stevens, K. Russell. ( Klefbom avg when playing with more aggressive rover)

4. Goalies can only be measured by the +ve/-ve performancerelative to the base ( expected) open shot save% the Dpair allows.

5. 3Fwd - 1Rover - 1 dman - 1Goalie structure.

Watching a lot of video I noticed off dmen:

-Abandon def of their side of Homeplate.
Yielding a high % of outmanned free path open shot rates to their def side. Resulting to high evga/60 for defensive pairs.

- Occupy (steal) a lot of forward zone space.
Off dmen are a fwd/ Dmen hybrid called rovers.

Rovers even offence must be measured against forwards.
Till this year, All but the top 5 or 6 rovers generate ( #6-#9 fwd) Even production rates the rest are 4 th line fwd or worse.

Their are brutal evga/60 to their side Rovers on this team. Klefbom, Nurse, Bear, Jones.

Almost all the use of my 50+ theories by the analytic community is flawed. They must exclude closed shots from all shot based analytics.

Oilers have been one of the worst open shot shot density teams 16 of 19 seasons.
The only 3 seasons they were not:
05/06 WC champs
06/07 missed playoffs
16/17 2 goalie interferences kept them from Conf final.

Since all stats presented today do not differentiate for open/closed to side.
The most accurate stat will capture 0% closed Corsi (blocks + misses + closed shot) affect.
Evga/60.

14/15 - 15/16
Evga/60 Dmen
#1 Manning
#2 Larsson

Let’s look at our Def pairs this year.
With 7 Dmen on roster and 31 teams the min # of pairs we want is
( 31 team x 7) top 217 TOI Dpairs.
70 even min (214 Dpairs)
Oilers have 8 Dpairs with 70 even min.
League evga/60 rank per Pr:
2.49 evga/60 is the median ( middle) rate.
#1 Russell - Benning; 162:36; 0.37 evga/60; + 2.12 evgdif/60
#10 Manning - Benning ; 72:52; 0.82 evga/60; +1.67 evgdif/60
( man do we miss Benning during this brutal loss run)
#22 Russell - Klefbom; 153:10; 1.18 evga/60; +1.31 evgdif/60
#31 Russell - Larsson; 83:30; 1.44 evga/60; +1.05 evgdif/60
——————————————————————- 2.49 evga/60
#141 Klef -Persson bot 75; 163:13; 2.94 evga/60; 0.45 evgdif/60
#186 Nurse - bear bot 30; 562:09; 3.74 evga/60; -1.25 evgdif/60
#207 Klef - Larsson bot 8; 107:58; 4.45 evga/60; -1.96 evgdif/60
#208 Klef - Jones bot 7; 104:07; 4.61 evga/60; -2.12 evgdif/60

Klefbom is having his worst Homeplate abandonment rates in his career paired with Larsson this yr.

if we want be playoff competitive.
We should be using the elite homeplate and closed Corsi Dmen together in pairs.
With toughest comp priority on match-ups and bench change without Pocession.
Russell - Larsson 1st comp Pr
Manning - Benning 2nd comp Pr

I would almost think it makes sense to have Nurse - Klefbom play with our 3rd - 4th lines in tough FO DZ zone start and bench change without pocession so they are forced to defend HD area as a Pr. it might not be as bad as Nurse - Bears evgdif/60.

People are talking about spending 12M annually for nurse and Klefbom.
We subject them to that we know if they are part of my Championship Core Roster theory.

I developed my Championship core roster theory by looking at 15 now 25 yr of championship rosters.
Which I have presented before on HF boards.
Said Vegas were GA cup final team based on potential top open shot save % goalie and top homeplate and closed Corsi Dmen available in expansion draft.

Vegas selected 100% of the Dmen, forwards, & goalie that fit my champ roster theory.

 

[I am the Liquor]

 

[oilerbear]

As it turns out, it was just unsustainable percentages.

Having developed 50+ theories:

their are 3 factors (not 2 factors = PDO is wrong)
1. Fwd individual goal production rates (They do not regress to a common avg = PDO is misleading) based on Open shot density and Homeplate penetration during 3 phases:
PP: PPG/60
Even: EVG/60 2.49 19/20
PK: PKG/60

2. Dman individual baseline save% ( expected save% = xSave% ) to their def side (2 ind dman avg = PDO is Brutal) based on open/homeplate penetration shot density to their side during 3 phases.

3. Goaltender +ve/-ve save % performance to each side (2 ind avg = PDO is embarrassing) relative to the baseline save% to each dmans side by phase.

No, As it turns out!
It is brutal open homeplate def thru off dmen like Klefbom, Nurse, Bear, Jones abandoning homeplate to 1D - 1G defensive structure resulting in brutally high open HD success densities to the off dmen ( rovers ) abandoned side.
We see that in Dpair evga/60.

All backed up with simple structure video evidence.
Nothing worse than Klefbom creating 4 free path GA in a gm paired with Larsson vs OTT.
Which means they only gave up 4 GA in the other 12 gm paired together.

I have only looked at 6 of the 8 GA of the pair
5 were Klef abandonment of Homeplate and one was a pass back to an uncovered 4th option ( common) after the first 3 were defended. Not a dman break down.

 

[BudBundy]

Can someone cal HK97 and tell him to put our new culture he was bragging about back in the fridge? It’s going sour. Lol

 

[Little Fury]

Can someone cal HK97 and tell him to out our new culture he was bragging about back in the fridge? It’s going sour. Lol

Culture cannot fail. It can only be failed.